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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
June 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
3-Oh K Man (7/5)-Made the new connections happy winning its 1st start off a claim by the St. Louis barn. Aaron Merriman gets the nod, and he should be in control of the mile off the gate. Looks like a clean trip away from recording the 2nd straight win versus the same kind.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
5-Militant (5/2)-The Stable pupil shipped back to Ohio from Kentucky and won at the Meadows from post 7. AMac should be out and rolling. Could double up with a cozy trip.
9-Naughty Tommy (7/2)-Merriman steers for the Daren Harvey barn and that outfit is posting 21% wins over the last 30 days. Took the long way around last week from the 9-hole to take a picture. Will likely need a similar trip to win again and does step-up. Gets Merriman tonight, will rely on him to work a smooth trip and looks like a main player.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
5-Lockdown Louie N (2-1)-Ships in from Scioto after making its 1st start since 12-16. The tune-up was fine especially considering it was versus much better. Merriman takes a seat, so that assures a small price. Will respect chances of cashing the top check in its Nfld debut.
6-Big Bad Whamo (5/2)-Comes off an even start at an Ohio fair but should enjoy a return to Nfld (22-6-3-3). Beat better than this here on 5-1 and could be sitting on a big try.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
4-Always A Hero (7-1)-Going to fade the morning line chalks and try to get some pop into this sequence. Hasn't connected for the new connections and may have met a beatable field. Justine Irvine has the gate speed to work a cozy trip and be there at the wire.
5-Just Bookem (20-1)-May have the best gate speed in the field and should be a large price. The issue is the veteran needs a trip and pilot James Day still has lessons to learn. That said, neither chalk (3-7) looks trustworthy at 9/5 and 8/5, at least not for my money.
6-Prince Of Bailair (7-1)-Went a big mile from the 2nd tier to take a picture and now steps-up. This is a grinder who could take advantage of some lively fractions and catch the leaders down the lane.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
3/5,9/5,6/4,5,6
Total Bet=$12
Royal Ascot Tips & Preview | Wednesday, June 19, 2024
June 18, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Lineup
9:30AM ET | Queen Mary S. (Gr II)
10:05AM ET | Queen’s Vase S. (Gr II)
10:45AM ET | Duke of Cambridge S. (Gr II)
11:25AM ET | Prince of Wales’s S. (Gr I)
12:05PM ET | Royal Hunt Cup H.
12:40PM ET | Kensington Palace H.
1:15PM ET | Windsor Castle S.
Picks
Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview & Pick Sheet from UK’s At the Races
Prince of Wales’s Video Preview
Royal Hunt Cup Video Preview
Setting the Scene
Wednesday’s marquee event is the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (Race 4, 11:25AM ET), which pits reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf champion, #2 Auguste Rodin (1/1) against last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf heroine, #10 Inspiral (3/1) in a marquee event for the ages. Lord North (20/1), who won this race in 2020, is back for another crack, but may be too long in the tooth at eight-years-old. Alongside the Prince of Wales’s, Wednesday’s card showcases the five furlong Group 2 Queen Mary for two-year-old fillies, immediately followed by the 1 3/4-mile Group 2 Queen’s Vase for three-year-olds. One race may be over in a minute, while the other contrasts at more than 3-minutes. The action kicks off at 9:30AM ET, and all races are available on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.
American Runners
Four American runners will participate in Wednesday’s action at Royal Ascot, topped by #11 Gabaldon (10/1) in the Windsor Castle S. (Race 7, 1:15PM ET). Trained by Jose D’Angelo and ridden by Emisael Jaramillo, Gabaldon won the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes at Gulfstream on May 11, an ‘automatic qualifier’ for Royal Ascot. He is joined in that race by #8 Cheval de Guerre (12/1) for Eddie Kenneally and #13 Honorary American (15/1) for Wesley Ward. Both horses exit debut defeats and are seeking their first career victory. Ward is also represented by #24 Ultima Grace (8/1) in the opener, the Group 2 Queen Mary at 9:30AM ET. The daughter of American Pharoah sizzled in her debut at Keeneland on April 18 and fits the profile of a successful Ward runner at the Royal meet. Joel Rosario pilots both Ward entrants on Wednesday.
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Churchill Downs - Race #3
Churchill Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Financial Whiz Nothing at all at 56/1 at first asking, but I'm not sure this is going to be the most memorable special weight we're going to see here this season, and I could see him getting a bit better run of things today while maybe not being quite as wide. Price shot in a race I don't love. #10 Akinmusire Dropper landed a piece in stakes company Derby week, and he should appreciate getting a little extra ground today. Still, his tendency to come alive too late could haunt him again today. #4 Purse Thief He was well bet and finished up well enough in the debut to think a step forward at second asking might keep him in the picture. Capable with a step forward, but that's true for most of these right now. Race Summary Akinmusire could be tough, but I wonder if Financial Whiz might have some upside today in a race that feels like it lacks some depth.
Churchill Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #7 Pure Force Tough to split the Cox pair, but this one might be a slightly better price and showed solid pace in the debut. Could get a perfect trip attacking from the outside. #1 Discreet Mischief He was second best behind an easy winner in the last one, and he has already shown a pretty high ceiling through three starts. Geroux stays here, for whatever that's worth. #4 Edified He graduated at first asking before trying a couple graded stakes group, and that October allowance try before the break included future Preakness winner Seize the Gray. Could see him running a big one, but the Cox pair are probably tough. Race Summary Pure Force and Discreet Mischief both have a big claim on this for a top team, but the former might offer a slight premium on the board and in multi-race plays. Might have a small backup with Edified.
Picks Notes #9 Gentle Soul He rallied with a little enthusiasm off the bench at Keeneland before the main-track dud here last month, and he could be a handful with some reasonable upside while getting back on the turf in the third start off the break. #5 Georgie W He rattled off a couple sharp wins at Horseshoe Indianapolis before a mild run in Grade III company, and he's back fresh while trying the turf for his first run as a 4-year-old. Get a look at him -- think there's a little midrange price appeal on paper while getting the jump on the finishers. #2 Gray's Fable He hasn't won in some time, but there are some races on the page that would make him a player with this group. Still wouldn't be too thrilled to take another less than exciting price on a guy who hasn't actually been on the wire with a winner in some time. Race Summary Willing to draw a line through the last one for Gentle Soul and hope he's ready for a bounce-back effort while moving back to the grass. I wouldn't be too upset at something like the 6/1 ML price in a spot where there are a lot of recent form questions to be answered among the logical players.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Delaware Park - Race #1
Delaware Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #3 MIDNIGHT GETAWAY (7-2) Doesn’t shy from photo-finish camera, tries route for top barn. #7 BOLD MEDICATION (9-2) Won pair of routes at Tampa this winter, three wins are least in field. #2 GOLDEN GULLY (8-5) Came up ‘empty’ in same spot as the class-dropping favorite. Race Summary MIDNIGHT GETAWAY’S three-peat bid on the class rise was derailed somewhat by a bumpy start. He stretches out in his Delaware Park debut for a high-percentage barn, in part because it makes him eligible for this spot. Bet to win and place and play a 3,7/2,3,7/ALL trifecta.
Delaware Park - Race #8
Picks Notes #1 SASSY BABE (7-2) Takes catching, got caught on ‘good’ course, barn on 0-20 run in grass sprints. #3 NICKY JOLENE (6-1) Gained 6-wide on turn, enters new barn, use in gimmick wagers. #8 FIXED ODDS (5-1) Useful return after $58k sophomore season on the lawn. Race Summary SASSY BABE blew stretch leads in 3 of her last 4 turf sprints but she catches a field void of speed outside of second choice FIXED ODDS and will have no excuse today. Wouldn’t expect 7-2 odds but a win and place bet and 1-3 and 1-8 exactas will suffice.
Picks Notes #1 NUCCI (6-1) Bid from close-up in slow-paced sprint and edged clear, value remains in repeat try. #3 SURVIVAL ROSE (7-5) Back-pedaled in route race, bid 4-wide past dueling leaders to win two back. #2 LA MACCHINA ROSSA (4-1) Rallied to win pair of two-turn sprints at Charles Town this year. Race Summary NUCCI returned to Delaware Park after an unsuccessful winter in Tampa, but she produced the top speed figure of her career in winning for the second time at 6F. She ranged up 3-wide for the stretch drive and ‘gradually edged clear’ to earn a repeat nod at a good price. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Meadows
PURCHASE
Fair Meadows - Race 6 Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $6,600 • Post: 8:20P FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ALWAYS A KING is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALWAYS A KING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ALWAYS A KING
Line
Class
Speed
FigureALWAYS A KING Front-runner GOSPEL FOREST Alternator/Trailer C J'S LEGACY Alternator/Trailer BERRYVILLE BULLET Alternator/Trailer SPENT WELL Alternator/Non-contender TIZNOWS GRANDSON Alternator/Non-contender WON NINETY Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE
Mountaineer Park - Race 1 Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 7:00P FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (IF NECESSARY WILL BE RUN SAME DISTANCE MAIN TRACK.).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WHISKEY AND WINE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HIKE'S DREAM: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MR HARRY: Horse has a T rackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WHISKEY AND WINE HIKE'S DREAM MR HARRY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureHIKE'S DREAM Front-runner WILDCAT HAGRID Front-runner WHISKEY AND WINE Alternator/Front-runner GOFASTANDWIN Alternator/Front-runner MR HARRY Alternator/Stalker BALLOT BOX Alternator/Stalker ENOUGH ICE Alternator/Non-contender S J MATER Alternator/Non-contender GALLAZO Alternator/Non-contender GOLDEN DORO Alternator/Non-contender SENZA STRIKE Alternator/Non-contender
Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,600 Class Rating: 73
Rating:
#1 CHARGING FAST (ML=5/2)
CHARGING FAST - Was beaten as the favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the rating recorded was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's race. Nice return on investment for this rider and trainer tandem. Ranked at the top of the list in earnings per start (EPS). Another indication that this horse has the class to take this race. Compare today's class (73) with last three speeds (73, 78, 73). All three speed figures are good enough to win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REVENGE TOUR (ML=7/2), #2 OVER MY LIMIT (ML=4/1), #5 HAPPY TAILS TO YOU (ML=6/1),
REVENGE TOUR - Hard to put any dough on this colt on the top end. Likes to land in the money though. OVER MY LIMIT - No pace in this event to help this sustainer's efforts. HAPPY TAILS TO YOU - Not a good enough price on this entrant at the likely odds of 6/1.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - CHARGING FAST - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this colt. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 73 on Jun 5th.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #1 CHARGING FAST to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 81
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 DOUBLEDIAMOND DEAL 5/2
# 4 TAMBOURINE STAR 2/1
# 6 STARPORT 8/1
I've got to go with DOUBLEDIAMOND DEAL. With Castillo aboard him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early in this contest. Ran a sharp last race. He has decent class ratings, averaging 83, and has to be given a chance in this race. TAMBOURINE STAR - Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. Had one of the most competitive Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last affair. STARPORT - Has formidable front speed and will most likely fare soundly against this field. Trainer boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface.
Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 78
Rating:
#1 QUEBRANCHO (ML=3/1)
QUEBRANCHO - Beschizza comes to saddle up after getting to know the colt in the last race. Beschizza and Ennis perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +52 return on investment for a jockey and handler. Entered a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs in the last race and raced on a sloppy track finishing fourth. Will do better in this race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SIXWILLBERICH (ML=2/1), #6 AMERICAN RAIDER (ML=7/2), #2 RIGHT ON TARGET (ML=9/2),
SIXWILLBERICH - This chalk horse ran on May 26th and hasn't had a work since. Don't believe this racer will make an impact today. That last speed rating was pedestrian when compared with today's Equibase class figure. AMERICAN RAIDER - This rallier looks to have slight chance without an early battle up front. Earned a mediocre speed fig last time out in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race on May 23rd. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. RIGHT ON TARGET - Unlikely that this equine will finish better than he did last time out when finishing eighth.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #1 QUEBRANCHO on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 76
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 3 A THOUSAND PLANS 2/1
# 2 GOOGLY EYES 9/5
# 5 DARK DAHLIA 5/1
I favor A THOUSAND PLANS here. This filly is a contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint events. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. Brooks has her trained solidly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. GOOGLY EYES - Displays the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 76 speed rating which is one of the most competitive in this group of horses. Could beat this group of animals given the 78 speed fig put up in her last outing. DARK DAHLIA - Has put up formidable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past.
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