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Al Cimaglia: Running Aces Late Pick 4 Analysis
June 18, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Running Aces has a 9-race card with the 0.50 Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $3,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6 (8:40 PM CST)
1-Gee Wilikers (5/2)-Outraced his 20-1 odds last week to finish a game 3rd after leaving from post 8. Team Cutting entry should be a major player unless starting from the rail poses an issue.
4-Speed Snip (3-1)-Drops after being driven aggressively in the 1st start on Lasix. Most times this 4-year-old looks to come off cover. This is a more competitive level and will rely on Luke Plano to provide a less taxing trip and be there at the wire.
7-Bunkerhill Phil (5-1)-Team Longo trainee makes the 3rd start off the bench. Raced gamely to the wire at 44-1 against better. Longo left, parked the 1/5 chalk out in the beginning and that took its toll. This is a better level, and probably a different trip coming. Best to respect, even with this post draw.
Race 7 (9:00 PM CST)
5-Tuggin On My Heart (8-1)-This 6-year-old was a main player with $40k-$50k at Yonkers so should dance with this group. Has had issues but qualifiers were good and drew off by 17 lengths in 153.1 in the 2nd tune-up. Can win its Aces debut if dialed on high.
6-Bombay Hanover (6-1)-Winner of 2 straight in May and fits at this level but recent form has been dull. This could be a wake-up spot and has a post edge on others. The track could be wet and if so, the team Plano veteran could benefit.
7-American Dreamer (9/2)-If driver Todd Warren had to do it all over again, he would probably stay in the pocket at the top of the last turn instead of pulling. The leader probably kept going longer than he anticipated and then the winner snuck through on the rail. Bombay was the best last week considering the trip. Now draws the 7-hole but will use anyway off the last performance.
Race 8 (9:20 PM CST)
5-Maui (4-1)-Took the long way around in last and that didn't end well. Drops to a more competitive level and Plano should
work a favorable trip this time. Looks like a player in a race without a standout.
7-Reagan Blue Chip (9/2)-Finished 2nd to a well-meant winner in last and drops. Meets a beatable field but could be bet down.
Race 9 (9:40 PM CST)
3-Kamara (5-1)-Team Cutting entry comes off a sharp win and now faces better. All of the horses in the best form are stepping up for this affair. Could get a similar trip as in last and this 5-year-old knows how to string wins together.
4-Feartheblue (9/2)-Steps up after coming in 2nd at a big number leaving from the 8-hole. Elson Miller owns, trains, and drives and this outfit has been clicking. Should offer a square price, could get a cozy trip and be in the mix at the wire.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,4,7/5,6,7/5,7/3,4
Total Bet=$18
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Presque Isle Downs - Race #5
Presque Isle Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #2 Tallonade Sample size of three, but Motion hasn't missed with a maiden going long here the last couple years, so I'll ride that stat today and hope the change in scenery wakes this one up enough to score. #4 Dianthus Tactical pace didn't miss by much in the local debut last out, and something similar keeps her in the frame again. That said, she was 4/5 against just four others that day and now finds a field with a couple interesting new faces. #6 Loyal Royal Take a look on the track and tote ahead of this one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this filly or the one outside of her make an impact at first asking. Race Summary Tallonade goes with mostly modest form, but her team has done good work sending horses in this kind of spot here, and a few of the other proven types have been happy to settle for shares so far.
Presque Isle Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Express Star Let's see if he gets enough pace, but the presence of a couple forward players further outside offers some hope. Loved the comeback score, and he's in the frame again if he has anything better to offer in the second start back. #3 He's a Good Dancer He has decent route form on the page, so the stretchout isn't a big concern, but there are a lot of underneath slices on the page and just the one win. Capable underlay? #6 R Admiral He came back running with a sharp score on the front end last out that earned him this hike, and he is a big danger right back if he doesn't take too much early heat. Race Summary Express Star only has the one dull running line, and it's the one just before he went to the bench last year, so I'm thinking it's the exception to his overall form and expect him to fire right back today.
Picks Notes #2 Yankee Tea Party Not totally sold that he'll be thrilled to be back over the local footing, but he has the right kind of pace near the inside in a spot that might turn out to be a battle of wills on weary legs late. #7 Trustme Iamadoctor Second start off the four-month break could have him set for better, and he is probably fast enough to keep the top choice in his sights early. Dangerous if he can edge past into the lane. #8 Torrefactor Not much to get excited about so far, but he might be able to get past a handful of these late while turning back off the route runs in Florida. Tough call. Race Summary Yankee Tea Party makes sense in a weak spot, as he figure to be in the mix early on and might be able to outlast the rest of these.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Parx - Race #2
Parx - Race #3
Picks Notes #4 ALL HAIL MO (9-2) Solid 3yo campaign sprinting at Parx, starts anew off busy work tab. #7 ANGELIC STORM (4-1) Buried lesser as fave in weak field, barn on 5-for-17 run with claims. #8 CLOUDY TIMES (5-1) Recovered from fall two back, followed move of 5-2 winner and ran second. Race Summary ALL HAIL MO, a steady check-getter at various sprint distances during a $40k sophomore year, makes her seasonal debut off a series of workouts over the track. She earned her top speed figure in a November the last time she raced 6F. Bet to win and place and play a 4-7-8 exacta box.
Parx - Race #4
Picks Notes #8 SUMMERATTHESHORE (6-5) Absolutely no excuse to not hold onto the lead in this field. #4 DIXIE MUSIC (4-1) Late runner best suited to long sprint, completes chalk exacta. #3 CATALINA NINA (6-1) Stablemate of top one switches pilots, figures best of the rest. Race Summary Six of the eight entrants lost by double digit lengths last out. SUMMERATTHESHORE looms as the odds-on choice after she came up short in a pace-controlling role at one mile, then bid to a stretch lead and lost by a nose in a 7F follow-up. DIXIE MUSIC rallied for minor awards in her last two long sprints and should complete a short-priced exacta. Play an 8-4 exacta as today’s Best Bet.
Picks Notes #4 SO CLOSE SO FAR (5-1) Has speed, has to carry it farther, gets in light-weighted on class drop. #8 SCAMP WALKER (5-2) Took money, rough trip as fave, claimed again, one to beat. #6 RABBIT (9-5) Takes the plunge after trailing in return from a one-year layoff. Race Summary SO CLOSE SO FAR dueled with the favorite and held ‘gamely’ for second in a shorter sprint two starts back, then gave way readily in a faster-paced follow-up. He shouldn’t face much front-end pressure in here and can carry his speed to victory as the light weight in the field. Play a 4,8/2,4,6,8/2,4,5,6,8 trifecta.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE
Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 7 Maiden Claiming $32,000 • 1 3/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $35,360 • Post: 5:16P (RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SAVA is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ROCK LUCKY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. SAVA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. POLAR BEAR PLUNGE: Jockey/Trainer co mbination return on investment is at least +20. BOUNTEOUS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ROCK LUCKY SAVA POLAR BEAR PLUNGE BOUNTEOUS
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSAVA Front-runner ROCK LUCKY Stalker WARNING SIGNS Stalker HOYLAKE Alternator/Stalker BOUNTEOUS Alternator/Stalker ORA CERTA Trailer READY TO REIGN Trailer POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Alternator/Trailer CALL ME CASSIUS Alternator/Trailer PRIORITY LANE Alternator/Non-contender TIGGEROO Alternator/Non-contender SNOW KING Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE
Presque Isle Downs - Race 6 Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 3:15P (PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 18, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SAMURAI LEGACY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAMURAI LEGACY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SAMURAI LEGACY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSAMURAI LEGACY Front-runner ELUSIVE MISCHIEF Alternator/Stalker GREY CHARMER Trailer SPICY SHOT Trailer FUEL THE BERN Alternator/Non-contender NO NAME DUDE Alternator/Non-contender GET HAMMERED Alternator/Non-contender THE CONNECTOR Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 11.0f on the Turf. Purse: $35360 Class Rating: 81
IND - R7 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 CALL ME CASSIUS 9/2
# 1 HOYLAKE 5/1
# 5 SNOW KING 10/1
CALL ME CASSIUS has a very good shot to take this race. Ought to be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. The Equibase Speed Figure of 79 from his latest affair looks very good in here. Look for this animal to be right there at the finish versus these horses. HOYLAKE - He has been running well lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figs. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in as of late. SNOW KING - Contreras and Esquivel have a good win percent together. Gamblers using horses with this rider and conditioner duo have done soundly recently.
Royal Ascot - Race #7 - Post: 1:15pm - Handicap - 14.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $139,500 Class Rating: 113
Rating:
#17 BAGUE D'OR (IRE) (ML=15/1)
#1 ALSAKIB (GB) (ML=15/1)
#6 NAQEEB (IRE) (ML=15/1)
#9 FOX JOURNEY (GB) (ML=7/1)
#4 MAXI KING (IRE) (ML=20/1)
BAGUE D'OR (IRE) - A gelding like this one, almost always on the board, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. This horse has shown the capability to win at multiple tracks. Making the move from NEW for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. Even though he isn't from around here, when a thoroughbred has hit the board at a big time foreign racing venue he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. ALSAKIB (GB) - Have to give this race horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best Equibase speed figures on the turf at this distance. Last time this colt ran today's distance he got a speed rating that would probably win today's race. I like this colt a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the past performance lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at different tracks. Recent speed ratings show strong pattern of improvement. NAQEEB (IRE) - I like a thoroughbred that manages to hit the board as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Entered the Boodles Yorkshire Cup at YOR last race out and raced on the soft turf finishing sixth. I'd expect a better race today. This equine gets shipped over here after running well at a major foreign racing venue. A good sign in my opinion. FOX JOURNEY (GB) - That 116 fig this colt registered in his last clash tells me he's a key player this time around. Even though he isn't from around here, when a racer has finished in the money at a major foreign venue he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. MAXI KING (IRE) - This horse likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. This thoroughbred ran out of the money at NBY last race out on the soft turf. He should improve in this field under normal track conditions. Although this colt has limited experience around here, he has showed his class by running well at a big time foreign racing venue.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 BELLOCCIO (FR) (ML=5/1),
BELLOCCIO (FR) - Doesn't appear to be worth 5/1 today. Pass on him this time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #17 BAGUE D'OR (IRE) on the nose if you can get odds of 7/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,6,17]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,17] with [1,6,17] with [1,4,6,9,17] with [1,4,6,9,17] Total Cost: $24
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13700 Class Rating: 53
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 2 SASSY TALLAHASSEE 6/1
# 6 LINDSEY 3/1
# 7 NORTHWAY 4/1
My selection in this event is SASSY TALLAHASSEE. With one of the strongest jock in terms of profits at the window, don't count this mare out. Keep this mare in your exotics as Coa has given backers some double digit dividends. LINDSEY - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figs of this group of horses. Reliable average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this equine a contender. NORTHWAY - One of the top win percentages between this rider and trainer make this filly dangerous. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 50 - of her last affair.
FanDuel Horse Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:28pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 68
Rating:
#3 GONE AGAIN (ML=4/1)
GONE AGAIN - Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the form to make his presence felt. This mount ran outside the top 3 at Churchill Downs last time out on a sloppy track. He should improve in this race on a fast track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SOLOMON VANDY (ML=3/1), #6 WICKED GUS (ML=7/2), #5 BRAHMS JR. (ML=9/2),
SOLOMON VANDY - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the job finished now and then. WICKED GUS - Would have to get much more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 7/2 to invest in this horse. BRAHMS JR. - I'm forecasting a less than stellar go out of him this time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #3 GONE AGAIN to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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