I think Maia is going to win but I can see a clear path to victory for Munoz, that is stopping me from placing a bet.
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I think Maia is going to win but I can see a clear path to victory for Munoz, that is stopping me from placing a bet.
So you don't bet anytime someone has a chance to land a big punch?
I'll grant you that Maia hasn't fought a lot of guys with KO power, but he's only been knocked out once. Maia's a fucking bad ass. Munoz is just pretty good. Munoz could land that big shot, sure, but I don't think it's the most likely result and at +105--+105!!!!--Maia is the only sensible play.
Shit if I was that confident in Maia I'd put 5u down @+105
For the magic prop parlay for this card I will more than likely include JDS/Carwin doesn't go distance @-380
Well I'm not 100% confident. It's not Dave Branch vs Jeremy May or anything.
Also, I'm about even right now for the year and I'm trying to be pretty conservative and careful with my bets. If I get about 10u or so ahead then I'll probably start ramping it up a little.
JDS just hit -158 on Pinnacle. I hope it's the start of a new trend.
Einimo +200, thoughts scientist
Pass. He hasn't fought in 5 years and hasn't competed in bjj (as far as I know) in 8 years. The bet to make on that fight is that it doesn't go the distance. I have no idea what Einemo is going to look like... he could be a beast or he could just get his head taken off. My guess is he gasses out in round 2 and gets KOd.
I think he has the potential to beat just about any heavyweight just based on his ADCC win alone, but without having seen him fight, it is pure guesswork. If he was fighting someone less imposing physically, I would consider it, but Herman is a big experienced guy that packs a lot of power.
OK, ill pass.
I think Maia is going to win. Munoz will probably even get out struck here, I am not sure if he is going to be throwing those huge shots like he usually does since he will leave himself open and will more than likely want to avoid the clinch. I doubt Munoz will shoot, and I think it's probably obvious that Munoz will want to "sprawl and brawl". Munoz didn't show the best TDD against Simpson either and put himself in some bad positions against Grove, Simpson, and Okami. I think in the clinch Maia will have the advantage and will get Munoz down and do his thing.
Any thoughts?
I think K Sos will beat Pokrajac pretty easily. K Sos will bring the fight down and get on top where he will have the advantage. Vladdy and Bonnar were both able to neutralize and dominate him down there.
Is everyone just assuming that Maia has a huge grappling advantage and will automatically tap munoz withing a minute or two of being on the ground? Lets not forget that Munoz is training with the nogs and jacare. I'm sure he's improved on the ground in the last 2 years and can probably survive if he's on top and win a decision that way.
I don't know how much he's improved over the last several months, but I remember Grove came very close to locking up a choke on him. And if Kendall Grove can do it, Demian Maia can definitely do it.
I think you are vastly underestimating Maia's grappling chops as well as the skill difference between Maia and Munoz (or even Nog) on the mat. I am not saying he will tap Munoz, in fact, I don't think he will. But the odds of Munoz being able to just hang out in Maia's guard for 15 minutes are very slim. There is more to Maia's game than guard submissions. Coming in with gnp gameplan is a surefire way to lose against a top grappler. Munoz has to win on his feet, and maybe mix in a few takedowns with no extended time on the mat. I think Maia would lock up a triangle within 2 minutes if he didn't get a sweep first. Maia has been gassing in round 3 since he got on the roids, so Munoz may be able to top control him in round 3, but I still doubt it. That said, Munoz had a good chance in this fight IMO because Maia comes in and engages. He will probably walk straight forward the entire time like he always does. Munoz hits like a truck and could definitely catch him.
More lines out
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/358.png
Fuck I need bodog.
Maia hasn't subbed anyone of note for a while now. Actually his best sub is Jason Mcdonald. A guy that probably shouldnt even be in the ufc. Anyways, he's not gods gift to jiu jitsu and most fighters have become proficient at avoiding subs unless they are rocked, gassed, or chael sonnen. Shit Jacare couldn't sub villesenor and only subbed lawler once he decided he couldnt win anymore. So i am pretty sure Munoz can play maia's game during the latter parts of the rounds and win a decision. And I am actually a big maia fan, i just have been disappointed with his lack of a finish lately when he has had the majority of his opponents playing his game.
I think for me, the Key Maia-Munoz question is: How well can Maia hold Munoz down? Getting back up from the ground seems to be the one part of Munoz's wrestling game that is anywhere near as good as his wrestling credentials imply.
Anyone else think the Mexecutioner might be a good play at +155?
What do you know about Rosa?
I vaguely remember his fight with Devin Cole at the ill-fated Shark Fights 13. He struck me as a decent heavyweight, but nothing overly impressive. Fairly well-rounded, but also kind of sloppy.
I understand that he did spoil Abe Wagner's party recently when he choked Wagner out right after Wagner TKOd Sylvia.
Fuck it, I'm off to bet the Mexecutioner. .5u.
Ya I gotta watch rosa fights when I get home, I have no idea how their styles even match up
Rosa is probably a better wrestler and he does have some sub wins. But I don't think the skill disparity in the grappling department will be THAT much.
On the feet it's probably anyone's fight, with both guys throwing fairly sloppy punches. Rosa's last loss was via TKO and the Mexecutioner can't be stopped, so if Beltran lands some bombs it could be over.
Beltran couldn't even take Pat Barry down
Contrary to popular belief, we really don't know a lot about Barry's wrestling.
Watch his fight vs cro cop maybe? And he got last place in a local bjj tournament in the white belt division. Not even I got last place in the heavyweight divison in a local bjj tournament.
Everyone knows Barry was fucked up by the end of the Cro Cop fight and had like 74 broken bones.
What wrestler's has Barry really faced? No one. He only has two losses in MMA: Cro Cop and Tim Hague, who grabbed a guillotine early on, which doesn't tell us much about his wrestling other than he fell into a guillotine.
I am very surprised at the Weidman line. I would be all over him @-220.
Barry is literally the worst grappler in the UFC IMO. Maybe he can avoid the takedown though, I don't think Kongo's wrestling is any better than Beltran's. I actually like Barry here tbh. Kongo is also a small HW, he may have trouble keeping him down.
It would be nice if these Costa Rican fucks can put up the lines on bookmaker or 5 dimes
Based on getting submitted by 2 shitty grapplers in Hague and CroCop. If he is getting tapped by non-grapplers, I don't why he would do better against someone who can actually grapple. For god sakes, he tapped out to a "rear naked choke" from CroCop and CroCop did not even have 1 hook in... he just jumped up there and grabbed his neck. I mean, that's terrible. Also based on the grappling vid Poopoo posted of Barry looking horrible against fat amateurs in a local tourney... not even a regional tourney. It is embarrasing. You can say, well he is a striker. Fine, but I cannot think of a single UFC fighter, even some of the "pure grapplers" that would lose in a novice division in a local boxing or kickboxing tournament.