Newsletters

Brad Powers Week 2 Preseason

Cal Sports NFL Pre-Season Guide

Phil Steele's College Football Preview

Cheetah Sports College Football Guide

Marc Lawrence's NFL and College Preseason Preview

Vegas Synergy’s 2017 - 2018 College Football Guide

The Rainman's 2017 College Football Preview

Joe Gavazzi’s POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS

2017 NFL-X Week #3 & College FB Week #1

Next Wednesday, we begin the Pointspread Prognosis for the 2017 Regular Season. It will feature 14 CFB “Name Games” and 6 NFL “Name Games”. You should go to JoeGavazziSports.com and click yellow tab “Pointspread Prognosis” to read all about them. Remember that the CFB “Name Games” are 202-135 ATS the last two seasons.
This week, I give analysis on all 4 CFB games for Week #1 along with a handful of NFL games for NFL-X 3. As always my preferred side is underlined in the heading.

College Football Week #1
Saturday, August 26thOregon State at Colorado State (-3-) 2:30 PM ET CBSCCFB is a big deal this Fall in Fort Collins. The joint is hopping at the Main Line Ale House as the students return for Fall classes. Part of the excitement is that the Rams open Colorado State Stadium today, the long awaited on campus site. Traveling to former home, Hughes Stadium, 4 miles away at the base of the Eastern front (near Horse Tooth Reservoir and State Park) had become a major inconvenience. But that is just part of the reason for excitement. By the end of last season’s 7-6 SU, 9-3 ATS campaign, Colorado State whipped New Mexico, followed by a win AT SAN DIEGO STATE, the perennial league leader who had won 18 straight MWC games. Apparently, Col State was still celebrating when they lost their Bowl game to Sun Belt rep Idaho. Though the Rams averaged 52 PPG in their final 4 games of the season, THEY GAVE UP 43 PPG in the process. In 2017, much is expected of the Rams who return 14 starters and are picked by many at the top of their Division. Leading the way on offense is returning QB Stevens who will be aided by the return of his top 2 receivers and top 3 RB’s. DC English will have his hands full, however, with the 8 returning Defensive starters who were torched at the end of last season. Though it appears to be “all systems go” for the Rams this season, their opener vs. PAC 12 rep, Oregon State, will present a much different challenge.
True enough, the Beavers will need to adjust to the Mile High altitude of Fort Collins. But their PAC 12 pedigree will hold them in good stead. Note that PAC 12 teams are 49-17 SU vs. MWC foes this decade. This Ram program has been particularly susceptible to that league losing 11/14 recent meetings to their big western brother. 2 of those 3 wins were against rival Colorado. AND GUESS WHO THEY PLAY JUST 6 DAYS HENCE! Yes, a PAC 12 Colorado team who whipped them 44-7 to begin the 2016 campaign. Our specific edges using this PAC 12 team is the overland edge. Those who have followed the Pointspread Prognosis in recent years know my love of CFB teams who dominate overland. The Beavers are now in the 3rd year under HC Anderson. He made his mark at Utah State in Wisconsin with a ground and pound offense. This year, the Beavers return 15 starters from a program who has won 2 and 4 games respectively the last two seasons. Many teams hit their peak in the third year of a coaching regime. I expect just such to be the case with Oregon State this year. Anderson has 3 experienced signal callers on the team but it is jumbo JUCO QB Luten who will get the starting nod on Saturday. Behind 3 OL starters, expect Oregon State to build on a ground game that averaged 193/5.2 LY. The lead back, Ryan Nall, known as the Wrecking Nall, will be just 1 of 3 experienced runners who will be battering the Rams defensive front which has allowed greater than 200 RYPG on greater than 4.8 YPR each of the last 3 seasons. Along with the vastly improved defense, this is a very live PAC 12 underdog.
Hawaii at U Massachusetts (-2) 6:00 PM ETTime change to 6:00 PM ET, a major edge for Hawaii who gets to play the game at noon eastern body time (as opposed to 6:00 AM were it a noon eastern start). These two matched up in the final game of the season for U. Mass. who lost 46-40 on the Island in an evenly contested game. That defeat closed out a 2-10 SU campaign making the 4 year record for the Minutemen 9-39 SU. Now they are a favorite? Please note this is the same team who was outrushed 193/4.7 to 99/3.2 LY. Their lack of experience on the OL following last year’s debacle bodes poorly again for this season. New DC Pinkum (Western Michigan L4Y) is entrusted with improving a D that allowed 35 PPG and was #120 in PED last season. Yes, there is experience but it is all bad.
Despite the 6,000 miles of travel, far prefer the Rainbow Warriors who figure to make great strides in the 2nd year under HC Rolovich. Under his 1st year tutelage, the Rainbows went from 8-30 SU the previous 3 seasons to 7-7 LY topping it off with a 3-0 SU finish to the season including a 52-35 win vs. Mid-Tenn in the bowl game. That extra practice time is another major edge for the visitor. This season, 8 starters return on offense led by QB Brown under the guidance of OC Smith. With an experienced OL and the return of RB Saint Juste, look for Hawaii to build on their 28/391 offense of last season. Blending elements of the Pistol, Red Gun, and Run and Shoot, the Hawaii offense will be tough to stop for U. Mass. Any issues for Hawaii will be with the 6 returning defensive starters under their 5th different DC in 5 years. In what could well be a similar shoot out to last year’s 46-40 Hawaii win, we will side with the better team as underdog.
South Florida (-22) at San Jose 7:30 PM ET CBSC 1st year USF HC Charlie Strong has stepped into a ready-made situation at USF. Not many coaches are that lucky after spending 3 seasons at a prime job like Texas where he went 16-21 SU. This year, Strong inherits the 11-2 SU Bulls with 16 RS led on offense by QB Flowers. Look for that unit to be explosive once again. Despite the departure of RB Mack, they look to exceed the 44/511 offense of last season. New DC Jean-Mary is entrusted by Strong (best known as a defensive coach) with 9 starters who allowed 32/482 LY. Though 4 starters return on the DL and it is an experienced secondary. Not sure I am ready to trust them 3,000 miles from home with a new coach and new schemes.
Not that the Spartans have much to offer. Former HC Caragher is gone after a 4 year mark of 19-30 SU and a season where Little Sparty was outscored on average 35-24. In his place is new HC Brennan, a former WR coach at Oregon State and former UCLA WR. With that offensive experience as a backdrop and the hire of new OC Sowder, look for Little Sparty to try to light up the scoreboard this season. Sowder is a disciple of Dino Babers, the current Syracuse mentor who, prior to that stop, led a Bowling Green offense to 42 PPG in 2015. Yes, it is flying footballs in the South Bay. With all 5 starters returning the OL, improvement could come quickly. Though San Jose was torched for 247/5.5 overland LY, must note that new DC Odem (from Oregon State with Brennan) does inherit a Top 20 pass defense. All of the above factors could well keep this game under the number in a contest that features a 1st year HC, a poor defensive team from LY, and 3,000 miles of travel.
Rice vs. Stanford (-31) 10:00 PM ET ESPN Sydney, AustraliaRice played their final game of the season last year at Stanford. It was a 41-17 loss in which they were outgained 534-291. After going 18-9 SU in 2013-14, the Owls have regressed dramatically with 5-7 SU, 3-9 SU records the last two years under 11th year HC Bailiff, who nonetheless appears to be an excellent fit. Big areas of decline have been their defense against the run which bottomed out last year at 237/5.5. They were a “200 Club” defense who allowed 37/504. It will be up to new DC Stewart, remember him from his time with the Dallas Cowboys?, to mold 7 RS into a tougher stop unit.
Not likely they will have success today with Stanford’s RS QB Chryst (back from torn ACL) handing the ball to a deep running back contingent who will dominate the proceedings with 4/5 OL returning. The reason why they might not cover?, because they simply have no intention of showing anything more than plain vanilla to their next opponent, USC whom they face September 9th.

NFL-X Week #3
Friday, August 25th
New England (-2) at Detroit 7:00 PM ETRemember last week when we used “Houston” in their revenge motive for their 34-16 Playoff loss? Well, it worked! But mostly because the Texans were +3 net TO (dropping the Patriots to -4 net TO’s for the Preseason, worst in NFL-X). The Patriots actually outrushed (112 to 82) and outpassed (248 to 206) the Texans yet still did not claim victory. At 0-2 SU, ATS, I am well aware there will be a public play on the Patriots this week. Backing the contrary move on Detroit will be the same type of situational intangible. Many of the Detroit front office personnel has links to the team everybody loves to hate. Their interest in beating the Champs will be clearly passed on to HC Caldwell whose Lions have begun the Preseason 2-0 SU, ATS outscoring Indy and the Jets by a combined 40-16. Neither of those wins counts for much even in the Preseason. Of greater concern to our New England side is that with those 2 victories, Caldwell is now 10-4 SU in NFL-X as coach of the Big Cats. It could be an interesting battle in the 1st half with Detroit starting QB Stafford against the Pats and Tom Brady. But the Garopolo/Brissett combo get the nod in the 2nd half as does the fact that in NFL-X play any 0-2 SU road team who is priced as the better team is an over 80% ATS play if coming off a loss as favorite (-1 on Saturday) in their previous game. A public play winner with New England.
Kansas City at Seattle (-3-) 8:00 PM ET CBSWhile public money flowed in against the Chiefs last week based on their long term failure in NFL-X play on the road in Week #2, we followed the sharp money and came away with an easy victory in a game where the Chiefs outrushed the Bengals 33/228 to 21/72. That was just 1 of 11 games where the better running team got the money. Updating the running stats for NFL-X play, we find that you would be 18-3 ATS backing any team who ran the ball 30 or more times, if their opponent did not, 17-2-1 ATS FADING any team who ran the ball 22 or fewer times in the game, if our team did not and 20-7 ATS if we outrushed our opponent by 30 or more yards in the game. Speaking of overland success, how about that of the Seahawks? In Week #1, they outrushed the Chargers, 36/133 to 22/72. Last week, they outrushed the Vikings, 34/153 to 17/71. That 2-0 SU, ATS start is nothing new for Seahawks HC Carroll who is now 30-17 SU and 31-16 ATS in NFL-X play. Meanwhile, despite the fact that the Chiefs won in Week #2 of NFL-X, HC Reed is just 14-23 SU in Preseason road play. Considering that the pointspread has only mattered twice in 33 Preseason games, that is an important factor. While many stadiums are only half filled for these meaningless Exhibitions, you can be sure that the Seahawks will be, once again, sold out for this Friday night marquee matchup against a Chiefs team who was 12-5 SU last season.

Saturday, August 26th
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-6) 7:30 PM ET Few teams have been publically bashed more than these Indianapolis Colts who are off to an 0-2 SU start and looked ugly doing it. In Week #1, they were outrushed 25/96 to 18/52 vs. Detroit in a 24-10 loss. Last week, in a 24-19 loss to Dallas they were outrushed 160/32 to 15/59 to the Cowboys. Even a +2 net TO margin could not get them the cover in a game where they gave up 489 yards to a Dallas team who rarely tries in Preseason. Such ineptitude is not uncommon however, for the Colts in Preseason play as under HC Pagano, they are just 7-15 SU, 8-14 ATS. What is unusual is that the Steelers are 2-0 SU, ATS using 3rd and 4th string QBs Dobbs and Houston to get the victories. In Week #1, the Steelers gained just 226 total yards in their 20-12 win vs. the Giants. Last week, they were outgained 318 to 189 by the Falcons yet won 17-13 courtesy of a 65 yard punt return. Those 2 victories improved the record of Pittsburgh HC Tomlin to 8-15 SU, 6-17 ATS of late. This week, the public will be all over Pittsburgh as Big Ben returns to action and possibly 2nd string veteran QB Jones. Meanwhile, it would not be surprising if Indy QB Luck was again unable to make post because of his injured shoulder. I will check status and the game day line prior to deciding whether to use this as the most contrary selection of the week.
Green Bay at Denver (-3) 9:00 PM ET
This is the 2-0 SU, ATS Packers vs. the 2-0 SU, ATS Broncos in the Saturday night Marquee matchup. In Week #1, the Broncos beat the Bears despite being outrushed 36/173 to 26/106. Credit a +2 net TO margin for the victory. Last week, though the Broncos held a dominant edge at the point of attack, there can be little doubt that the +5 net TO margin was the major reason for their 33-14 victory vs. the Niners. That is now +7 net TO’s for the NFL-X Season, a number that begs for correction. Despite that contrary look, I was still ready to consider the Broncos this evening based on their starting QB battle between Siemian and Paxton Lynch. Now that the pressure is off, with Siemian claiming the #1 spot, there will surely be less intensity in the competition. Enter the Green Bay Packers who thus will have a dominant edge at the signal callers spot with QB Rogers seeing his 1st meaningful action backed by QB Hundley, who is without a doubt one of the most underrated backups in the NFL. Green Bay looked solid in victories over the Eagles, 24-9, and last week at Washington, 21-17, when they won the line of scrimmage 29/110 to 22/64. Looks like your Saturday Night Dog of the Day!

Sunday, August 27th
San Francisco at Minnesota (-4) 8:00 PM ET NBCIt’s Sunday Night Football as televised by NBC. It is also a battle of 1-1 SU, ATS teams each of whom is coming off a loss. In Week #1, the Niners beat the Chiefs 27-17 when they parlayed a +2 net TO margin with a 36/188 to 14/31 dominance at the point of attack. Apparently fat from that victory, the Niners turned in a -5 net TO performance and were dominated 34/146 to 19/37 at the point of attack by the Broncos. Now this 2-14 SU team from last season must take to the road to face a Vikings team who, under HC Zimmer, is 12-3 SU, ATS in NFL-X play. Coming off a road loss at Seattle and playing at home underneath the Sunday Night lights, all but guarantees victory in a game where the Vikings will have the clear QB edge throughout.

Gaming Today August 29 - September 4

Gold Sheet Issue #1

Gold Sheet Extra Issue #1

Winning Points College Kick-Off

Power Sweep Issue #1

Sports Reporter Week Ending September 4

Vegas Synergy’s 2017 - 2018 College Football Guide

The Rainman's 2017 College Football Preview

Marc Lawrence's NFL and College Preseason Preview

Phil Steele's College Football Preview

Cheetah Sports College Football Guide

Cal Sports NFL Pre-Season Guide

Cal Sports College Football Power Ratings

Pointwise newsletter

alabama ratings 1
geo tech 1
ball st 2
miami ohio 3
mid ten 4
colo st 4
s alamama 5
oklahoma 5

Gaming Today September 5-11

Gold Sheet

Gold Sheet Extra

Winning Points

Sports Reporter

Victor King's Totals Tipsheet

Power Sweep

Power Plays

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Statfox Platinum Sheet

Joe Gavazzi’s Pointspread Prognosis

VSIN Point Spread Weekly

Powers' Picks

Killer Sports

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL

Pointwise

Red Sheet

Confidential Kick-Off

so good to see you C-Paw Thanks for everything

Thank you sportscrazy for joining! As you can see the rx will not even allow my email to be posted on their site fearing they might lose the majority of the people who visit the service play thread. I think people are finding me whether it's word of mouth, Google, Twitter, Facebook.

Welcome to IWS!

Thanks for everything CPAW! Happy to find you here :) Cheers