I don't see why Miller has better subs. He is a BB and has only been subbed once since 1999 and it was Almeida.
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I don't see why Miller has better subs. He is a BB and has only been subbed once since 1999 and it was Almeida.
Miller may or may not have better subs, but in terms of percentages, far more of Miller's wins have come by sub. If Dan Miller has won a fight, then it's highly likely that he choked a motherfucker out. That's not the case with Marquardt. He has far more (T)KO wins in the UFC than he has sub wins.
I think Cro Cop is old, doesn't really want to fight, and is just fighting for the money. He basically said he is going to retire if he loses and I have a feeling he wants to retire deep down.
Marquardt is an above average grappler overall, it's his wrestling that isn't quite elite. I don't see Miller posing a huge wrestling threat to him though. If anything it will likely be Marquardt getting on top of Miller and beating the holy hell out of him from top position. Could he get caught in a sub? It's possible I suppose but I just don't see it as very likely. I don't remember Miller having great subs off his back and to be honest his go to technique is the guillotine anyway. I just don't see Marquardt falling into a guillotine with Jackson in his corner. I don't think Marquardt will be going for any takedowns since he'll own the striking advantage.
Ludo, I hope everything you just said is correct.
I think Miller's path to victory is to come out aggressive and get the takedown immediately like he did against Horwich and Doerksen.
Miller isnt much of a threat off his back...If he was he would have subbed Sonnen.
Wineland was taken down repeatedly by Chase Beebe
Im sure your right, just saying, oh, by the way, I bet Wineland even though I think he is getting choked out.
Here is what I am thinking:
continue my locks parlay: 10.83u to win 1.61u on "not Wineland by sub/not Shalorus by sub/not Schaub by sub"
Faber/Benevidez: 4u to win 2.4u
Jones/Shogun ITD: 4u to win 1.14u + .5u to win 2.18u on Jones by decision (hedge @ +437)
considering:
Marquardt/Miller goes to decision: 2.1u to 2 win 1u
I may even hedge out completely on Jones by decision... but then that is a lot of risk on "Not Shogun by decision"
Marquardt has pretty heavy hands. I don't know if I would bet that.
on the other hand, miller has a really good chin
Miller has never been finished. he has a really well rounded ground game, but he is definitely behind in the striking. On the ground, I actually think Miller is a little better. Marquart should try to force a stand up fight, and he might be able to drop him and then pound him out. But I think it is going to a decision... just don't know if I want to pay 2:1 for it
If my memory is good, miller didn't really even try to take bisping down in their fight. If he did, he didn't try often. He had no problem about standing up agains,t a better striker even if he knew that he was getting outclassed and that his ground game was WAAAYY better than bispings.
So IMO Marquardt is gonna decide where the fight is going to play out, standing or on the ground.
I think Bisping would outstrike Marquart, FWIW. But Nate has shown more power. I just think Marquart's striking is overrated and is based on a couple of highlight reel moments against Kampmann and Gouveia. He is much less effective when he is thinking about the takedown. I do think he will win, I just don't think he will get a finish.
Grappling - Let's say Miller is a little bit better than MQ, he probably isn't better by enough to land a sub and without that I don't see him winning. MQ is a stronger guy isn't he? He should be able to muscle the takedowns if he wants to.
He also knocked out Palhares, if you wan't to count that. Nates got some serious power, he might not have tight technique though.
Nate also hurt Chael pretty bad. Gashed his head open and almost choked him out, Chael said that he was going unconsious in an interview. He did somewhat alright against Yushin though he did gas at the end and lose the third round. I know everyone says he is overrated but he is still pretty damn good.