Ah ok thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
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Ah ok thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
Yea, and I was pretty aware of those who really thought I was him, and those who were just giving me shit.
Did I miss something? Is someone calling for me to be banned?
Just wait until you meet zY...
Whats SBS's user name at zewkey?
SBjj what boxing forums you post at? I've never been in any boxing forums I've always just went off my own capping
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjj
No ::lmao::
We're just messing with you
I'm nice to everyone that doesn't have gay sig gifs.Quote:
Originally Posted by LudoCain
Same username. And I post on Zewkey, under the boxing forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
Quote:
Originally Posted by zY|
answer me this though, why does your handle read zY when your name's pussy?
Luke, Graham fight writer(online) is a very good read. Bad left hook is a pretty good website. I read a ton of shit, but pretty much ended on the side I believe. The foreman-cotto fight was an exception, the overwhelming # of people i respect that were picking Foremn just boggled my mind. So I ended up just not betting it at all.
http://investwithsports.com/phpBB2/m...profile&u=2889Quote:
Originally Posted by AC88
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjj
Graham is a ok writer .I know alot peope hate Kevin lole I think he knows alot about boxing,more than he does about MMA.
I know what you mean about Foreman .I thought for sure Cotto was the play but with everyone saying Foreman I ended up putting a min. bet on Cotto,much less than I wanted to
Damn, I must say...I just went through the zewkey boxing forum....and that is some impressive shit.
Whole lot of winners there, and a whole lot of +'s next to those winners.
With all the excitment, I missed your response.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjj
I didn't say I think +450 = 30%. I know how to convert a line to its implied probability. I was saying the bet at +300 (25%) is not a good bet- i just said I don't think he has a 30% chance... but I consider him him @ +450 (18%)... I don't really think that any legitimate fighter should be less than 20%. Which is why I never bet over -400 favorites.
As for winning on favorites, I have posted my year to date picks on this site. I have only been betting on MMA for three years, but I maybe bet 5 or 6 dogs a year. All my bets are favorites, and I have consistently beat the line. I happen to be on my worst streak ever (by far) but I trust my edge enough to know that I will bounce back.
As for the side bet, I wasn't being literal. I am 100% serious though that I firmly believe I can beat the line at any level (below -600, because there arent enough fights steeper than that).
I (used to) follow a vert strict formula for betting mma favorites. I have gotten away from it a little, but I think you can pick favorites that are "more sure" than the line indicates by narrowing down the fights to the ones where you know where the fight will take place (for example, Askren/Hornbuckle tonight).
But all of that aside, I fail to see how there is some mathmatical edge in betting favorites. Value is the question. It can be found in favorites and underdogs. I only bet underdogs that I actually think are going to win the fight (my line has to be at least even). Then when the line is out, if my line is set further out, I bet. That is all there is to value. The only question is whether you can spot it or not. It does not make a lick of difference whether it is on the favorite or the dog.
The only issue is money management. If you are going to be betting favorites, you have to manage your bankroll very strictly. I have been doing quite well for the few years I have been doing this.
I have no way of verifying any of this, any more than you can verify your claims (except for my 9 month old blog which tracks my plays and breakdowns, from which about 70% of the poster's here migrated).
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjj
what are you talking about? you post there ,you act like you've never been there before? I'm confused
Thought the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
Wait, are you him?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luke
Never said I have never been to Zewkey. I think you are confusing Zewkey with Lagasse.
Jesus Christ guys. I have never been to the sportsbook @ Pallazzo named Laggasse's or whatever. I am a member of Zewkey. Never posted anything to the contrary. i know SBS from Zewkey.
I am totally confused now. SBS liar.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjj
I think Luke and I were surprised at your tone about the Zewkey FORUM. You just said you went to the Zewkey FORUM and were impressed. And then you said you post there all the time. But the way thay you said you were impressed made it sound like it was was your first time seeing it.