Just watched the countdown show. I am psyched for Maia/Munoz... I am big fan of both guys, I don't want to see either guy lose. Munoz comes off really well.
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Just watched the countdown show. I am psyched for Maia/Munoz... I am big fan of both guys, I don't want to see either guy lose. Munoz comes off really well.
I think there are two very good lines on this card: Carwin and Maia.
With Carwin / JDS, I think people are making the frequent mistake of overvaluing technique vs. power again. While we can all laugh at Carwin's excuses about the 'lactic acidosis' monster, the flurry of energy he expended against Lesnar in the first round was something of a special case. Also, I think it is almost always a bad idea to bet a favorite who is up against a better wrestler who is also the best wrestler they have ever faced (i.e. takedown defense not proven at this level). I *am* worried about Carwin's age and surgery, but at dog odds, I'm scooping up Carwin in a heartbeat. I do have to agree with everyone else though, that I can't say I would be shocked if JDS turns his lights out.
FWIW, Carwin's two takedown attempts against Mir could technically be called "failed", but they were really more "halfhearted", the kind of takedown that's half a feint and half a takedown. He was happy to clinch against the fence if the takedown wasn't sitting right there.
Is there a link to this "Vaghanny" guy? Google gives me nothing.
JDS=win
That's all anyone needs to know.
Vaughany is a beast. He has one bad event over a span of 4 months, and the rest are like +40u events.
What makes you think Carwin is off? He is 35 years old, probably used higher amounts of testosterone in the pas which more than likely fucked his levels up...you know what that means? Prescribed testosterone from the doctor. Even if that isn't the case, it's not the toughest process to beat a test for testosterone. Also, he is probably on HGH, which is virtually undetectable. This is the only time I have seen anybody getting busted for HGH: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/...for-hgh_164190
Nobody else that I can think of has been caught.
Blood tests and shit=they do that in the olympics. Has anybody been caught for HGH in the olympics? Do you really think there is not one olympic athlete that uses HGH?
Vaughany is almost impossible to follow unless you have outs in europe and murder the opening lines.
I looked at that thread... he got Herman/Einemo ITD @ -120... it is -245 on 5d. That is not because he is moving the line. I am pretty sure it opened there. You really think that many people are following this person? I have never heard of him and his thread is only 1 year old.
Hell, Edman is up some 50u, right here on IWS just in 5 months. You don't see lines moving off his plays. I don't think there are a lot of big money players that tail other guys.
The thing is, he gets opening lines over on these European books which open with great lines.
But -120, that isn't great... it is just silly. I think everyone here would agree that it is worth a bet at -120. I mean, the OVERALL average for HW fights to go the distance is like 25%. But with these two guys it is even less likely than the average IMO. So what I am saying is that you would have to be a fool to take the other side of that bet, especially at a p2p book, where the line is "true" (the other person only got +120 for that).
I guess my point is that this guy is not causing 5d to react by failing to offer prop bets.
Why Maia? I have Maia winning as well (and bet on him), but really think the line is about right. I mean, I think it should be flipped, with Maia as a slight favorite, but it is pretty close fight.
FWIW, CB took Munoz down before getting clocked. I think Maia has him beat standing and on the ground and can probably get it there if he needs to. However, Munoz seems really hard to control, and he definitely has the power edge.
I saw on the countdown that Maia has been working with JDS and his trainer. I am not sure how that works since JDS also trains with Munoz (and Anderson Silva)
Munoz does not impress me at all .I honestly thought the opening line of -270 was about right , I was shocked to see it go down to +105
Well I hate to say it, but I'm not even this optimistic, in that I have to giver the overall standing edge to Munoz, given his power. But I do think the current line represents the idea that Munoz will win the standup and since he's the "better wrestler", Maia won't be able to get him down. In fact, I would be shocked if Maia can't take him down several times. Munoz gets taken down by anyone he fights with respectable wrestling, and he doesn't have the kind of outside striking game that could keep him away from Maia's good judo-work. Munoz is good in a scramble and may be able to stay out of subs, but Maia's chances at winning a decision are probably being underestimated. Both of the fights with Grove are informative, I think.
Scientist...do you think Maia would beat Palhares easy?
I have seen Vaugny on SBR before. I used to scan SBR for winning betters and I never remembered him being anything special. I just reviewed some of his bets and I guess he might be decent but he doesn't appear to be some 'guru'. If this guy is a guru I am Rainman.
You know rainman is a ruh tard right?
yes. Also I am starting to think that I have no idea who wins Junior/Shane Carwin. Rainman was also a card counting genius. Pre fight press conference, Kenny Florian, " best camp of my life, best shape of my life, weight cut very easy"
Kenny Florian was 159 yesterday (Wednesday). He just started the hard part of his cut today, let's see how he feels after dropping 14 lbs in 2 days. Think about it...he probably had to cut 14 lbs in 2 days to make 155. Now down to 145? come onnn
Like poopoo said
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGVQ2EbAhkc
oh gawd.........Couture picks Carwin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-GXeUZn_Rk&feature=player_embedded
So?
Scientist, how good is Weidmans grappling. Spent alot of time watching his grappling tonight. And to me, he looked great. just not sure how good his competition was. Does he hold a big grappling edge over Bongfeldt. Wrestking is obvious.
IMO, Bong. looked like crap against Pierson, and got REAL lucky against TJ Grant.
Well, Weidman beat Bader and Phil Davis in wrestling (or was it submission grappling?), and they are LHWs now and Weidman is a MW. So either Weidman is a big MW or he can just handle bigger competition.
Weidman is a freak. He damn near beat Andre Galvao in ADCC. Bongfelt has a alot of submissions, but I would be pretty surprised if he catched Weidman. If Galvao couldn't catch him, almost no one can. That said, any man can can get caught in a triangle by a lesser grappler, the triangle is an equalizer... even Roger has been caught in triangles (he got out on a hail mary escape, but he was caught).
See Weidman/Galvao here: http://www.serrajitsu.com/members/te...atid=5&id=1657
I made a no submission parlay and I have Not Bonfelt in it, but it is the bet I am the most concerned about... both guys are going to be looking to go to the floor and so we will probably have a a lot of time down there to maybe get caught... but still, I don't think it is very likely. Weidman is a beast by all accounts.
As for Bongfelt's wins over grant and pierson... let's not forget that they are welterweights, while Bongfelt and Weidman are MWs. Take into consideration Weidman's wins over Phil Davis and Bader in wrestling, they are huge 205ers... Weidman is a man child.
Scientist whats your opinion on the rocha/cerrone fight? I got cerrone not by sub at -180. I realized he has 12 of his 14 wins via submission, but most of those came against strikers who cant grapple. Rocha is a black belt under Pablo Popovitch who i've never heard of. Anyways I think the only way he should lose by sub is if he gets rocked and rnc or taps to strikes.
I don't think Cerrone will submit him. I don't know much about Rocha, but I personally think Cerrone's grappling is overrated. He has a triangle because of his leg and hip flexibility... but other than his triangle, I don't think he is that great. I don't think he will submit Rocha, and will probably look to keep it standing anyway. b
Popovitch is a world level guy. If he (Popovitch) were to enter MMA, he would be the best pure grappler at WW. That said, he had an MMA fight last year and he did not look very good... it was his first so I give him a break though. Popovitch is the guy that submitted Ben Askren in 20 seconds at ADCC last year.
Damn, was gonna put more on Weidman, but hes over 400 now, damn.
Been looking at Rocha/Cerrone... I wouldn't touch Cerrone with your money. Cerrone is probably going to win, but i would not be surprised to see Rocha take him down and either submit him or win a decision. That said, I haven't see enough of Rocha to bet him either.
Anyone have thoughts on Elkins/Omigawa?
I really got assraped on these lines. I will probably be betting Florian and Weidman if the ass raping comment didnt make it clear who I want. I am probably going to be doing quite a few props.
Bets I am looking at so far:
Not Diego nunes inside the distance
JDS Carwin does not go the distance
Not Dave Herman by submission
Not Munoz by submission
Not Cerrone by submission
Not Sam Stout by submission
Not Jesse Bong by submission
Mike Massenzio
Mike massenzio by decision
Chris Weidman
Sam Stout
Demian Maia
Kenny Florian