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Johnny Burke: Hong Kong Spot Plays | Happy Valley | April 23

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April 22, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

The appetizer for Saturday’s FWD Champions Day comes to us hot and ready at Happy Valley this Wednesday. Night racing in Hong Kong, morning racing for us in the Home of the Brave, but wherever you’re betting from we’ve got a few spot plays to get you through the card.

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – April 23

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps
me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

Race 3 | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4 | Turf

Key: #1 FORTUNE WHISKEY (17/2 ML)

The third race on this early-morning card gives us a good chance at a big splash in both the Exacta and Win pools. After taking over a month off, FORTUNE WHISKEY is back on Happy Valley’s “C” turf course for a six-furlong bout over two turns. He rates the highest of this group in my power ratings by almost a full three points, and is more than capable of continuing his successful four-year-old campaign. At 17/2 on the morning line, he’s a good play right out of the gate based on numbers, but a few others with appealing prices look worth keeping on a ticket.
The next three highest-rated runners are #2 PRIME MORTAR, #3 SWAGGER BRO and #9 GROOVY FEELING with morning lines of 13/1, 22/1 and 22/1 respectively. SWAGGER BRO picks up Hong Kong’s top rider in Zac Purton after a pair of unsuccessful tries dropping to Class 4. PRIME MORTAR has been just short of a win in three of his last five tries. GROOVY FEELING is only three runs into his Hong Kong career and could be the big unknown in the field.
Knowing we could see a big run from any of these pricier plays, let’s key our top pick in an exacta and bake in some reassurance by boxing the other three. Massive exacta payouts are not uncommon in Hong Kong, even with short-priced favorites keyed on top, so if we hit you could be set up for the rest of the card or even your whole Sunday.

Betting Strategy

Win - #1 FORTUNE WHISKEY
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,3,9


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Race 5 | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4 | Turf

Key: #7 RISING PHOENIX (22/1 ML)

This morning line feels like either a mistake or a woeful underestimation of a good-looking runner coming back for his second start. RISING PHOENIX debuted at Sha Tin going just five furlongs, and after a bumpy start came just one and a quarter lengths short of winning on debut at off odds of 99/1. This three-year-old gelding gets an extra furlong for his sophomore try and retains the services of Brenton Avdulla who is winning at a respectable 13.16% in the last 90 days.
This horse gets a cozy spot in the fourth post and should maintain a good position over these two turns. The morning line favorite is #1 JUMBO TREASURE (2/1 ML) who gate-to-wired the field in his last try at this level, but will have to clear the field from the sixth post in short order before the first ninety-degree turn. From the inside post, I’m looking for #3 FLYING WROTE to demonstrate some early speed, like he did a couple races back at Sha Tin, and make the trip hell for the likely betting favorite. I’m also not looking past #9 NEW POWER (3/1 ML) who is habitually within two lengths of winning but hasn’t found his spot yet. We’ll keep him on the ticket as a potential closer who eats up the field late.
If we can get a murky trip up front, and RISING PHOENIX breaks a bit better than he did in his first effort, the figures for our top pick have him more than capable of beating this field and getting a “1” in his win column.

Betting Strategy

Win - #7 RISING PHEONIX
Exacta – 7 w/ 1,9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #2

#4 Percy's Bar	Think there is a little bit of midrange price appeal here first time out with some things to like for a win early attempt. Check her out on the tote and track.
#1 Gracie's Delight	These races still run through this barn, and she'll go first out from the fence with a couple of local bullets to her name. Probably tough.
#13 Givemethebeat	Not sure she'll go here, but she is probably capable of something a touch better than she showed in that first run, and she has a little experience which may count for something in a group of debuters.
Race Summary	Percy's Bar has some appeal on paper while making her career debut, and I assume the rail runner will take enough cash to keep the price interesting enough.

Keeneland - Race #7

#7 Indy Label	She didn't show much in stakes company last time out, but her previous runs were pretty solid. Think she might be along for the last laugh today.
#6 Landed	She has dangerous pace and some proven form seeing out these types of two-turn trips. Think her better stuff hits hard here.
#5 Little Jamie	She's another player in a competitive race, and she gets some class relief out of a string of decent efforts. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Race Summary	Indy Label took some time to figure it all out, but her form has come a long way in recent starts, and she can bounce back off the flat run last out.

Keeneland - Race #8

#2 Just So Pretty	She's probably going to get bet, but I think her better stuff makes her tough in the finale. Tactical speed should find a perfect spot.
#11 Love Song	She ran on well enough late in the turf debut last time out, and she may still offer an OK price off that run. Think there's a lot to like here today.
#5 Spinning Class	She doesn't have a ton of late punch, but I think she can track the pace and grind away in the lane to hang for a share.
Race Summary	Just So Pretty is a solid lean -- she's the most logical winner in here. Love Song might be an alternative if the price is right.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#1 GREY STREAK (6-1)	Plays to a steady beat at various venues, seeks repeat win off the claim.
#5 INFAMOUS NONO (3-1)	Loves to win, projects dream stalking trip in here.
#2 PROM KNIGHT (5-1)	Stablemate of ‘Grey’ carried speed to 5-13 record but it will be tested tonight.
Race Summary	GREY STREAK built on his $200,000 bankroll when he won off a three-month layoff to begin his 7-year-old season. He changes barns often but remains consistent, missing three wins in a row by a neck. Bet to win and place and play a 1, 5/ 1, 2, 5/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #3

#1 INTER MIAMI (3-1)	Classy 8yo has speed and the rail and gets class relief in bid to join $300K Club.
#4 PENTATONIC (6-1)	Dueled inside on the turn and won in the fog for $5,000 two back off similar rest.
#7 I ONCE STOOD ALONE (8-1)	Earned top two speed figures recently and won with Hernandez aboard.
Race Summary	Take a cue from Grey Streak in the second race when assessing INTER MIAMI’S chances in here. He set the pace but tired as the favorite after five months away. The 13-time winner was eligible for this condition when he last raced, perhaps fueling the claim. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #6

#3 SHIGEKO (4-1)	Might have ‘bounced’ off sharp victory, looks to bounce back at same distance.
#1 LA MACCHINA ROSSA (2-1)	Versatile, finished 1-2 in seven straight with improving numbers.
#2 EXTREMELY GRUNTLED (3-1)	No match for ‘Rossa’ after an awkward start in three-peat try.
Race Summary	SHIGEKO didn’t duplicate an impressive winning run on the stretch-out to 1 mile and 70 yards two starts ago. She is reunited with Cora and has license to bounce back at a proven distance in her fourth start locally after a long absence. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $110,000 • Post: 4:44P
KEE - R8 - (RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN LAST 3 STARTS). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LOVE SONG: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. HALSTYN ROSE: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. HIGH SHOT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. INDY'S HALO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JUST SO P RETTY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
11	LOVE SONG	15/1	6/1
14	HALSTYN ROSE	4/1	6/1
3	HIGH SHOT	6/1	7/1
1	INDY'S HALO	5/1	7/1
2	JUST SO PRETTY	8/5	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JUST SO PRETTY	2	8/5	Front-runner	83	87	99.2	79.6	73.6
15	CELEBRITY RO	15	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	79	70	82.2	72.6	54.1
14	HALSTYN ROSE	14	4/1	Stalker	86	80	79.9	79.9	72.9
5	SPINNING CLASS	5	10/1	Stalker	83	76	75.0	72.5	57.0
12	LADY MEIS (IRE)	12	10/1	Stalker	81	80	54.6	71.6	49.1
10	ALITTLEBITNAUGHTY	10	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	81	80.2	71.0	54.5
16	TAKE NOTE OF THIS	16	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	79	74.4	74.0	51.5
13	KIMBER SPICE	13	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	67	70.2	74.0	60.5
8	ZAPPERA	8	50/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	75	67.3	74.0	59.0
1	INDY'S HALO	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	81	59.6	78.8	72.3
3	HIGH SHOT	3	6/1	Trailer	85	78	76.0	80.8	71.8
11	LOVE SONG	11	15/1	Trailer	88	80	42.7	76.8	69.8
7	GLAMORAMA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	61.6	61.6	38.1
6	ATHALIAH	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	56.9	65.4	49.4

Unknown Running Style: SWIFT TEASE (30/1) [Jockey: Curtis Ben - Trainer: McEntee Paul], MILDRED PIERCE (10/1) [Jockey: Ortiz Jr Irad - Trainer: Toner James J].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct
PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 7	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 7 &8
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $82,000 • Post: 4:20P
(UP TO $14,268 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE OCTOBER 23, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. LASER SHARP is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ANTONIO OF VENICE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DAUFUSKIE ISLAND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WHAT'S UP BRO: Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LASER SHARP: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). WAR STRIDE: Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ANTONIO OF VENICE	9/5	5/1
5	DAUFUSKIE ISLAND	5/1	6/1
1	WHAT'S UP BRO	7/2	7/1
3	LASER SHARP	6/1	9/1
6	WAR STRIDE	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WHAT'S UP BRO	1	7/2	Front-runner	97	88	98.2	86.8	80.3
5	DAUFUSKIE ISLAND	5	5/1	Front-runner	99	93	90.2	87.0	83.0
2	ANTONIO OF VENICE	2	9/5	Stalker	96	95	96.8	91.2	87.2
6	WAR STRIDE	6	6/1	Stalker	89	90	89.6	88.2	80.2
3	LASER SHARP	3	6/1	Trailer	93	88	61.2	85.6	76.1
4	CONTRARY THINKING	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	87	51.6	83.5	74.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:39pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#1 SHE'S MUY MUY (ML=7/2)
#4 SOCIAL STATUS (ML=5/1)


SHE'S MUY MUY - She may be way off the pace, but Krigger should be hitting her at the top of the stretch on the way to the finish line. This mare is in superb condition right now. Ended up third in the last race and comes back quickly. This mare is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. I cannot ignore the fact that this mare is working extremely well. This animal brings in a lot of cash per race around the track. Number one in this race. SOCIAL STATUS - Note that although this filly finished second in her last race, she was well clear of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a nice race in the last race within the last month. Have to like the way Bourdieu has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WILD RULER (ML=5/2), #7 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE (ML=5/1), #6 FORGOT THE ROSES (ML=6/1),

WILD RULER - Substandard speed figure in the last race at Turf Paradise at 6 furlongs. Don't think this racer will improve too much in today's race. BEAUTIFUL BREEZE - Can't wager on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair of late. Won't be easy for this animal to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. FORGOT THE ROSES - Won't be easy for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 SHE'S MUY MUY on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 68

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 BELLEBOTTOM BLU 6/1
# 4 MIDKNIGHT RYDER 12/1
# 9 PYCINVENCIBLE 10/1

BELLEBOTTOM BLU is the strongest bet in this race. Wood has her trained admirably to break quickly out of the gate. MIDKNIGHT RYDER - Very good gains have been scored by players following this sire's progeny in their first askings. This handler has produced strong profits with maidens in their first starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Keeneland - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Allowance - 12.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $120,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#6 SUGAREE (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#4 TARNEEMA (ML=2/1)


SUGAREE (IRE) - Utilizing this rider/handler combination is a smart choice. When I handicap a race on the turf, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This fine animal has the highest average class in the entire bunch. Even though she isn't from around here, when a noble animal has hit the board at a major foreign race track she will usually give a good account of herself soon after shipping. TARNEEMA - Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this one has the highest Equibase speed fig for the distance-surface. Notched a nice turf figure on March 14th at Gulfstream Park. A repeat right here in this race, and this one has a great shot to win. Just see her latest speed figure, 100. That one fits in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PARISH LANE (ML=4/1), #10 SACCHARINE (ML=9/2), #3 ROMANTICA (ML=6/1),

PARISH LANE - Don't feel this racer will do much running in today's event. That last fig was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. SACCHARINE - This animal doesn't have a tenacious spirit. Very often finishes in the place and show hole. Don't think this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. ROMANTICA - Would have to advance off that fifth place finish last time out to make an impact here. Finished fifth in her most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 SUGAREE (IRE) is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 61

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MANDY'S MISS 6/1
# 4 MYGIRLISABOMB 8/1
# 6 SMART SHERYL LEE 7/2

MANDY'S MISS is my choice. She has a strong distance/surface win record - 1 out of 4. Had one of the top speed figures of this group of animals in her last race. Has been running soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. MYGIRLISABOMB - Should be given a chance - I like the figures from the last affair. Is difficult not to consider given the company run in lately. SMART SHERYL LEE - Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Must be considered given the class of races run as of late.