Friday 1/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 355074

    Friday 1/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 355074

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 1/17/25


    January 17, 2025

    Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
    Santa Anita Park

    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 2-Molly Jensen
    ; 6-Prime and Ready
    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Molly Jensen exits an infinitely tougher restricted straight maiden race in her debut last fall and should be far more competitive in this maiden $50,000 event for a barn that has strong stats with the second time starter angle. After flashing good speed for a half, she gradually faded to win up beaten almost 15 lengths, but the first three finishers in that race would be 1/5 against this group. If this M. Glatt-trained daughter of Ghostzapper can run at all, this would be a good place to show it. Prime and Ready also surfaces in a seller after three previous outings and should improve, but her most recent start (at Los Alamitos) was her worst, so the confidence factor is low. However, a bullet recent workout at Los Alamitos (:47 2/5) is promising, plus the addition of Lasix and F. Prat are there for all to see, so it would hardly be surprising if she went favored. Tread lightly.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
    Main Ticket: 3-Bet the Chalk
    ; 1-In Without Knockin.
    Backups: 5-Mineral Rights; 2-Your Royal Flyness.

    Forecast: Here’s a race carded for bottom rung Pleasanton invaders that attracted a field of only five. Bet the Chalk has figures that fit and his career spans just four starts, so he probably has more upside than the others. He lacks tactical speed, but a repeat of his maiden $8,000 win two races back probably will be sufficient. In Without Knockin is a beaten favorite is three of his last five starts, so he’s hardly one to trust, but he’ll be running on late and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw for a high percentage outfit. Small ticket players may try to get by using just these two, but the backups listed above are not without chance in a weak affair.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
    Main Ticket: 3-Cowboy Mike

    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Cowboy Mike should be a slam dunk in this starter optional claimer, but if it isn’t him, any one of three could win and in a five runner affair and it makes no fiscal sense to spread that deeply. So, we’ll sink or swim with the Bob Baffert-trained gelding. The son of Smiling Tiger, freshened since September and looking his usual sharp self in recent workouts, turns back from a series of two turn events and should have the proper stalking style for this seven furlong trip. Strong in the speed figure department and reuniting with “win rider” J. Hernandez, he exits a pair of tougher Los Alamitos stakes events and qualifies for this condition after having raced once for $32,000 over this track last March (an easy six length romp). He’s 6/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 3-Cheeky Gal
    ; 5-Stellar Cap; 6-Sharp Ride.
    Backups: 1-Isabel Ludlow.

    Forecast: Cheeky Gal should be too quick for this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming group of fillies and mares, though you may have to sweat out that final sixteenth of a mile after she cleared and then surrendered in the late stages in her most recent outing at Los Alamitos. The moderate early splits that are projected for this race may make the winning difference. Stellar Cap won gamely here last month and today’s raise in class may be offset by the switch to F. Prat. She’s not as fast on numbers as our top pick but that’s assuming ‘Gal fires her best shot. Sharp Ride is a dangerous class dropper with two wins from four starts over the local main track. She’s the best of the closers and is a “must use” in you rolling exotics.

    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 6-Thirty Four Coup.

    Backups: 1-Anitanewmercedes; 5-Aurelian Man; 7-Bee Catcher.

    Forecast: Thirty Four Coup earned a career top speed figure when a strong runner-up in his most recent outing over the Del Mar lawn couple of months ago and returns fresh and dangerous while switching to F. Prat. He’s probably most effective as the controlling speed but may be reduced to a stalk-and-pounce role today with other front running types drawn inside him. The S. Miyadi-trained gelding isn’t entirely trustworthy, but this is a field he really should beat.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 7 Attracted
    ; 5-Victoria’s Charge
    Backups: 1-Rousing Jewel.

    Forecast: Attracted won her first two career starts stylishly up north and produced an 11 point hike in speed figures. She’s a progressive sort that appears capable of extending her perfect streak to three in this first level allowance six furlong main track dash, but a slight concern is that she failed to change leads in both of those victories, and we wonder if her failure to do so again will impact her performance against these tougher rivals. She’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line, and we wouldn’t want to take anything lower than that. Victoria’s Charge finished a solid runner-up to our top pick two runs back but then caved in badly when 6/5 in her most recent outing up north. She’s been first or second in six of 11 starts and gets F. Prat, so she should be capable of bouncing back.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 2-Stop Digging
    ; 3-Smiling Lady.
    Backups: 4-Nothing Is Forever.

    Forecast: Stop Digging has burned money as the chalk in each of her last three starts, and has settled for second in six of nine career outings, so she’s hardly one to trust, but she’s drawn nicely inside and can easily draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position and have every chance from there. Her speed figures are solid for the level and she’s stretching out again to what might be her preferred distance. Smiling Lady remains protected after being claimed for $20,000 two races back. She’s clearly a committed front runner and if left alone early could take this field a very long way.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B+
    Main Ticket: 5-Kid Azteca
    : 2-Player B
    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Kid Azteca drops for the money run in this restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claimer. In the frame in seven of 12 career outings over the local lawn (with three victories), the P. Miller-trained gelding shows the route-to-sprint angle we like and projects to settle in the second flight and then blast home. It’s been awhile since he’s won, but his numbers are solid, his pattern is sound, and this extended sprint distance appears ideal. Player B already is making his third start in the young meeting and is in good form. Second in a tougher-than-par $25,000 turf dash on New Year’s Day, the D. O’Neill-trained son of American Pharoah projects to be on or near the lead throughout in race that is likely to have soft early splits. He’s been first or second in six of 10 career starts over the Santa Anita lawn, so we know he likes the course.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 355074

      #3
      Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Late Pick 4 Analysis


      January 17, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

      Cal Expo has a 9-race card with the 0.20 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

      Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

      Race 6 (8:25 PM PST)

      3-Alilthundadownunda (5/2)-Raced from the back in last after leaving from post 7 versus this kind. Then rallied to pass horses and finished 2nd. The 1st half went in a hot 55.3 and this time Nick Roland might try a different plan. Could get the top or the 2-hole off the gate and that makes the veteran a player.
      6-Regan Blue Chip (12-1)-Cashed the top check 2 and 3 back by getting on the point and not looking back. The last time Luke Plano left hard from the 8-hole, got the top and rolled the half in 55.3, but the trip took its toll. Could get on the engine again and should be rated better.
      7-AllMyx'sliventexas (6-1)-This is the 4th start off the bench and last time got a brutal trip leaving from post 9. Jim Lackey couldn't get the top and was hung the mile in the same race as my other picks. Needs a smart steer and could win at a solid price if in the hunt at the top of the lane.

      Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

      2-Overthemoonforyou (6/5)-Winner of 3 straight has owned this kind. That kind of dominance won't continue forever but my feeling is it won't end tonight. Should be racing at the top of stack and could be dominant down the lane again.

      Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

      6-Aime Hanover (9/5)-Came to town and battled Open company without success. Took a steep dive in class, raced from the back and won as an odds-on favorite. The last start went in 154.4 and something similar could be out of reach of this bunch. The Renee Goulet trainee should be a smooth steer away from another picture and the short field can help.

      Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

      2-Made Of Misschief (8/5)-Won at this level off a cozy trip. Returns against the same kind and did beat 3 from this field that night. The mare has won 6 of 16 at CalX and James Kennedy could work the same trip again.
      5-Powderhouse (9/2)-Won against this kind with a 58.1 back half off a wide trip. This time the fractions could be spicy and that could help the mare double-up.
      6-Princessofthedawn (7/2)-The Cisco barn has been cold, but this mare has won 9 of 29 at CalX. Does have enough gate speed to get an up-close seat. Could be in line for a suck-around trip and then be the best down the lane.

      $2 Late Pick 4

      3,6,7/2/6/2,5,6
      Total Bet=$18
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 355074

        #4
        Laurel Park Pick 3 for Friday, Jan. 17


        January 17, 2025 | By Frank Carulli

        LAUREL PARK LATE PICK 3
        Friday, January 17, 2025

        Earn 10X points for every dollar bet at Laurel Park this Friday, Jan. 17, as part of 1/ST Rewards’ ongoing promotion to ring in the New Year. Consider earning some of those points with a wager on the late Pick 3 that features a 6F allowance, a $62,000 optional claiming race at 5-1/2F and a maiden claimer at 1-1/16 miles for fillies and mares.

        LRL 7th race (3:31 p.m. EST) -- MOR MOR MOR sprinted to a clear lead after a bumpy start and widened to win by 7-1/4 lengths in her first start on dirt and for trainer Claudio Gonzalez, whose runners excel off the claim. Her winning time was 1/5 of a second faster than an $8,000 starter allowance for the boys on the same card. BE INSPIRED won at odds-on in her debut, then returned to the main track for a 7F allowance last out. She checked at the start, bid to a brief stretch lead and held third behind hard-hitting winner Next Girl (5-15, $159k).

        LRL 8th race (4:02 p.m. EST) -- POCKET SAND surged late to catch stakes-placed speedball Trudox Dahlia in her debut at this distance, then romped in an 6F entry-level allowance, albeit against six rivals who have yet to earn better than a 49 Beyer speed figure. She can move forward again in this barn and gets top billing as a result. But there remains many possibilities in a field that features Maryland Million Lassie winner SHKHARA FIRE, Todd Pletcher-trained debut winner PRANCING SPIRIT and IN MY MEMORIES, who shortens up for her second start off the claim for a 27-percent route-to-sprint barn with a 5/2-2-1 sprint record and $54k in earnings intact. But with room to spare on the Pick 3 ticket, hit the “ALL” button in this leg.

        LRL 9th race (4:43 p.m. EST) -- DRINK DEEPLY gets class relief, gets Lasix and could get away from this field on the front end. In her lone dirt route try, she set a clear pace while off the rail and got caught by a 6-to-5 first-time starter who finished third in a $100k optional claiming race next out. GOOD GIRL LENA worked out a good trip but finished third behind the dueling leaders in a 5-1/2F sprint. She is joined in her first route attempt by uncoupled stablemate TREASURETHEMOMENT, a non-factor in two starts thus far. Like them or not, their inclusion on the Pick 3 ticket is a reflection of trainer John Robb who – get this – is 15-for-26 in maiden claiming races in the last year.

        Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
        LRL 7th Race: 6, 8
        LRL 8th Race: ALL
        LRL 9th Race: 2, 3, 7
        Cost: $21
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 355074

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
          PURCHASE
          Delta Downs - Race 9 Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.)
          Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 77 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 8:34P
          FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 17, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).
          Contenders Race Analysis
          P# Horse Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds
          Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LO LO'S LAUGHTER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LO LO'S LAUGHTER: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race . Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CASTILLE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. NORTHWIND: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
          8 LO LO'S LAUGHTER 5/2 4/1
          9 CASTILLE 6/1 9/2
          2 NORTHWIND 7/2 7/1

          P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
          Line
          Running Style Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
          Figure
          8 LO LO'S LAUGHTER 8 5/2 Front-runner 78 73 79.6 71.2 65.7
          6 COOL RIDE 6 10/1 Front-runner 70 66 78.4 50.2 37.2
          9 CASTILLE 9 6/1 Front-runner 88 81 71.2 66.8 61.8
          2 NORTHWIND 2 7/2 Front-runner 76 65 53.3 66.4 57.9
          1 G E H GIANTS WAY 1 20/1 Front-runner 79 76 45.0 61.8 47.3
          4 G'S STORM 4 8/1 Alternator/Stalker 67 67 41.4 62.2 51.7
          10 FAMILY CREED 10 10/1 Alternator/Non-contender 77 55 49.0 56.8 47.8
          3 COASTAL DEFENSE 3 5/1 Alternator/Non-contender 93 81 38.9 55.9 45.4
          5 MR. BUTCH WOMBLE 5 20/1 Alternator/Non-contender 76 70 36.4 40.2 22.7
          7 J'S LITTLE MAN 7 12/1 Alternator/Non-contender 78 69 26.2 57.6 43.1
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 355074

            #6
            F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
            PURCHASE
            Louisiana Downs - Race 4 Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
            Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 74 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 2:20P
            QUARTER HORSE 250Y, (INCLUDES UP TO $1,000 LQHASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
            Contenders Race Analysis
            P# Horse Morn
            Line
            Accept
            Odds
            Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RUSE BONITA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROSE HUSTLE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce.
            3 RUSE BONITA 7/2 4/1
            6 ROSE HUSTLE 5/2 5/1
            4 MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY 9/2 6/1

            P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
            Line
            Running Style Good
            Class
            Good
            Speed
            Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
            Figure
            1 LADY MAFIA 1 12/1 Average 63 49 0.0 0.0 0.0
            2 JM MARIA MARIE 2 10/1 Slow 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
            3 RUSE BONITA 3 7/2 Average 80 74 4.8 0.0 0.0
            4 MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY 4 9/2 Average 82 66 4.0 0.0 0.0
            5 MAJESTIC EYE OPENER 5 8/1 Slow 72 62 6.4 0.0 0.0
            6 ROSE HUSTLE 6 5/2 Slow 81 69 8.4 0.0 0.0
            7 SHEZA MONEE TRAIN 7 15/1 Average 65 60 0.0 0.0 0.0
            8 GG CATCHING CORONAS 8 15/1 Slow 64 56 7.4 0.0 0.0
            9 FREIGHTLICIOUS 9 6/1 Slow 68 56 6.3 0.0 0.0
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 355074

              #7

              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

              PURCHASE
              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.



              Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 82

              GP - R9 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FLORIDA-BRED, OR MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $35,000-$25,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $25,000 2 LBS.
              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 6 BUDDHIST PRODIGY 8/1
              # 12 LAURISTON (IRE) 7/2
              # 10 TRUE MYTH 8/1
              BUDDHIST PRODIGY is the strongest wager in this competition especially at 8/1. She has been racing well recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Might see a different animal here with the blinkers change. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. LAURISTON (IRE) - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Ortiz ought to have this filly in excellent position to win the affair. TRUE MYTH - Her chances to score are much better this time out facing this less demanding lot. This filly looks like a longshot with a chance.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 355074

                #8

                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                PURCHASE





                Fair Grounds - Race #3 - Post: 1:45pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 87

                Rating:

                #5 SOVEREIGNS JOY (ML=9/2)
                #16 GUILE (ML=6/1)
                #1 YOU'RE ON MUTE (ML=8/1)
                #7 LAST ATTACK (ML=6/1)
                #2 SIR PISTOLERO (ML=8/1)


                SOVEREIGNS JOY - Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this one has the highest speed rating for the distance and surface. Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a figure earned last time he tried this distance good enough to win. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. Ran a lackluster race at Fair Grounds in the last race. Racing under better track conditions puts this colt at the top of my list of contenders. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the form to make his presence felt. GUILE - Faced tougher in the last race at Turfway Park. Based on class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. Diodoro has a very solid win pct in turf sprints. This gelding should be in shape and ready to win. This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's event. You have to consider the solid works of late. YOU'RE ON MUTE - When this rider and handler join forces you have to take a look. Pedroza and Govea have been terrific together. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a sharp contest on December 20th. LAST ATTACK - Colt is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a good performance today. Gelner brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this hot colt. This colt is certainly on the improve with speed figs of 63, 70, 83 last 3 out. SIR PISTOLERO - This horse's last race was at Fair Grounds in a race with an Equibase class figure of 98. Dropping considerably in class rating this time out puts him in a solid position in today's race. Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a speed fig earned last time he tried this distance good enough to win. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track last time out. With the benefit of a fast track, has a fair chance in this race.

                Vulnerable Contenders: #8 BETTERA (ML=7/2), #6 BILLY'S GOT ISSUES (ML=5/1), #3 D DAY REUNION (ML=6/1),

                BETTERA - Notched a pedestrian speed figure last out in a $30,000 Claiming race on Jan 1st. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. BILLY'S GOT ISSUES - Unlikely for this horse to do much running with no success lately in a sprint event. Mediocre speed figure last race out at Meadowlands at 1 mile. Don't think this mount will improve too much in today's event. D DAY REUNION - The seventh place finish position in the last race was not the greatest. This gelding hasn't had any recent accomplishments in sprint races. Tough to play him in this contest. Didn't let me see any early speed in the route clash for me to back him in today's sprint event.
                STRAIGHT WAGERS: #5 SOVEREIGNS JOY to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better
                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,5]
                TRIFECTA WAGERS: [1,5,16] with [1,2,5,7,16] with [1,2,5,7,16] Total Cost: $36
                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [5,16] with [1,5,16] with [1,2,5,7,16] with [1,2,5,7,16] Total Cost: $24
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 355074

                  #9

                  Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

                  PURCHASE
                  Always check program numbers.
                  Odds shown are morning line odds.



                  Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 58

                  FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. MARYLAND BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
                  RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                  # 2 DRINK DEEPLY 5/2
                  # 3 TREASURETHEMOMENT 15/1
                  # 7 GOLDEN GIRL LENA 3/1
                  DRINK DEEPLY looks very good to best this field. With a reliable 60 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. There is a competitive chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Recent figs for the rider - 26 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group. TREASURETHEMOMENT - Investors should probably note that this animal runs on Lasix today. GOLDEN GIRL LENA - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Robb running at this distance are the best in this group.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 355074

                    #10

                    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                    PURCHASE





                    Oaklawn Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 86

                    Rating:

                    #3 PEACE DOG (ML=3/1)
                    #2 YOU VEE CEE (ML=4/1)
                    #11 AMAZING SUCCESS (ML=10/1)


                    PEACE DOG - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This horse fits the bill. Nice return on investment for this jockey and trainer twosome. Was in a $20,000 Claiming race at Remington Park in the last race. That clash had an Equibase class figure of 97 and he is moving down right here. A certain solid contender. YOU VEE CEE - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this horse's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Martin drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more information to think this one should run well at this level. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Oaklawn Park, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance. AMAZING SUCCESS - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. Coming off a fifth place finish at Fort Erie, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good M/L odds today.

                    Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOLDING PATTERN (ML=9/2), #9 COLONEL BARTON (ML=5/1), #7 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO (ML=6/1),

                    HOLDING PATTERN - Equibase speed figures of 78/75/65 are going the wrong direction. Didn't hit the board on Jun 21st at Churchill Downs. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. This gelding probably needs a more conducive pace scenario to make his closing move. COLONEL BARTON - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of efforts. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to record a better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint. CHUPAPI MUNYAYO - No speed in this field to help set-up his late kick. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests of late. Unlikely to see him doing it today either. Don't believe this questionable contender will make an impact today. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
                    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #3 PEACE DOG on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
                    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,11]
                    TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,11] Total Cost: $6
                    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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