Tuesday 12/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#5 Eight Oz Mocha	She still has to prove she can run well away from Charles Town (or maybe she just really doesn't like Timonium?), but I don't see a whole lot of potential finishing ability lined up in here, and she can at least get past horses.
#4 Dropping Lemons	She's dangerous on paper, but she has had her share of chances and has a pretty long history of giving away ground late in the stretch in her races. She might just be too good for these on the drop, but it'd be no shock to see someone pick her up late.
#1 Positively	She is another who doesn't have a whole lot of finishing punch, but her tactical ability typically leaves her in a pretty good spot turning for home, and she plugs away for a share from there.
Race Summary	Will take the slightly lesser-raced Eight Oz Mocha in here as she runs into a couple of horses who are short on excuses and likely to get bet. 'Mocha has at least a mild ability to get past horses and might be a playable enough price.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Villian	He's probably going to get a more tactical trip today than he did when rallying from off the pace in stakes company here a few weeks back, and he looks like a good fit with this open allowance group.
#1 Only Get'n Better	Honest finisher seems likely to find his way into the exotics, but he often comes alive too late. Price might be in that playable enough middle range around 5/1.
#4 Controller	His better stuff keeps him in the picture, but I think this race is fairly competitive and worry this one will take just a bit too much cash relative to his actual chances. Worry the top choice is going to be a problem for him on style.
Race Summary	Villian has some versatility in running style but finished up well last time out, though his more reliable form comes from right up close. Guessing we'll see something competitive from close range today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#2 Blue Nomore	Bit of a concern about him having enough time to get up with this group while turning back, but he has some pretty decent sprint form on the page and meets a trio of potential forward players. Along to land it?
#1 Silent Rule	She's in with the boys today while looking like dangerous rail pace, but there are a couple of other speed types lined up in the stalls outside of her, so she could take the worst of this one if she can't establish early. Still, tough to argue with anything she has done so far.
#6 Little Toy Guns	He has some room to rebound while racing fresh off the turf stakes dud in late August, and there are a couple of OK spying races on his page from around this time last year here. Price for a piece?
Race Summary	Blue Nomore has plenty of appeal in a spot with what appears to be three fairly committed forward players. He should get a decent setup, and I'll try to get Little Toy Guns in the picture with one of the logical players, too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#1 SURFBOARD (4-1)	Hit board in 5 of last 8 at this level, chased faves in last pair, changes riders.
#6 UTILITY (8-1)	Can carry his speed a long way in first start for new connections.
#9 BULLET BREEZE (7-2)	Steady check-getter handled stretch-out assignment with a runner-up finish.
Race Summary	The field is a combined 1-for-44 at the distance. SURFBOARD ran second three times in a five-race span at 1 mile and 70 yards, then met short-priced favorites and finished out of the money in his last pair. He runs okay with a month between starts and draws the rail. Bet to win and place and play a 1-6-9 exacta box.

Parx - Race #4

#2 SOZE (5-1)	Ever the front-end danger despite slow-starting habit, sheds 3 pounds.
#3 HARP’S HOT CORNER (2-	Romped in first two starts off Ness claim, strictly the one to beat.
#6 MR SANDMAN (3-1)	Earned top speed fig when second despite bumpy start in 11-horse field.
Race Summary	SOZE sped away from his rivals in three consecutive starts -- but was disqualified in one of them -- before he chased the 5-to-1 winner and faded to last in the same spot last out. He gets in light-weighted but must avoid a duel with rail-sitter YO YO CANDY, who finished ahead of him. He’s worth a win and place bet at better odds than his last four starts. Also play 2-3, 3-2 and 2-6 exactas.

Parx - Race #6

#1 EPIC LUCK (8-1)	Returned to good form off claim, too good to pass up at tempting price.
#7 GROUP TICKET (5-2)	Widened lead and won geared down, steps up off Ness claim.
#6 HOKU (3-1)	Validated solid numbers with first dirt win, eligible for this by $1k in claiming price.
Race Summary	EPIC LUCK willingly pursued the two favorites through slow fractions and improved to finish third for his new connections. He shows no workouts in the month since that race, but he is worth a win and place bet at 8-1 on the morning line. Also play a 1-7 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 5	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta /10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 1:53P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 17. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BOURBON CALLING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SPEIGHTSTER RED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAKABIM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MEGA CHARLIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
8	BOURBON CALLING	5/2	9/2
7	SPEIGHTSTER RED	5/1	5/1
5	MAKABIM	4/1	7/1
6	MEGA CHARLIE	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MEGA CHARLIE	6	7/2	Front-runner	86	87	72.6	71.2	57.2
3	LORD WINSALOT	3	10/1	Front-runner	82	74	69.6	72.0	61.5
7	SPEIGHTSTER RED	7	5/1	Stalker	91	84	74.2	81.2	77.7
8	BOURBON CALLING	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	97	89	69.4	79.4	74.4
1	SUIGU STAR	1	15/1	Trailer	84	66	54.4	69.8	58.3
5	MAKABIM	5	4/1	Trailer	89	89	52.8	84.0	78.0
4	TEEWINOT PASS	4	15/1	Trailer	85	79	46.4	72.0	59.5
9	RON DON SCORESE	9	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	97	85	58.0	59.2	50.7
2	FOREVER WICKED	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	68	35.6	66.0	48.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 5-6) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $8,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 2:37P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500 (THIS RACE ALSO TAKEN FOR FILLIES AND MARES). ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SOUTH COAST ROUTE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MT. ZEROR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. A LOT OF VERVE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHUDDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse' s average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	SOUTH COAST ROUTE	8/1	7/2
3	MT. ZEROR	5/1	7/1
9	A LOT OF VERVE	10/1	9/1
1	SHUDDER	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CHIRAG	5	8/1	Front-runner	69	68	76.2	55.8	43.8
1	SHUDDER	1	7/2	Front-runner	80	59	75.8	64.6	57.1
3	MT. ZEROR	3	5/1	Front-runner	86	79	71.4	72.1	63.6
8	ARTETA	8	12/1	Front-runner	75	70	57.4	42.2	32.7
7	SOUTH COAST ROUTE	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	83	73.2	76.6	73.1
4	JUSTIN AZTECA	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	67	55.8	55.0	45.0
9	A LOT OF VERVE	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	71	49.2	65.2	58.2
2	COLONEL PUNCH	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	64	45.6	57.4	43.9
6	DIAMOND RAPPER	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	53	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $31500 Class Rating: 73

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LAUGH OF THE PARTY 6/1
# 5 M G M'S LUCKY 10/1
# 7 KING BRYCE 2/1

LAUGH OF THE PARTY has a strong shot to take this race. Looks very strong against this group and will probably be one of the front-runners. Solid average Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this gelding. M G M'S LUCKY - With a sound jockey who has won at a very strong 21 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks. Must be considered given the class of races run recently. KING BRYCE - With a +144 return on investment, this rider and trainer combo has produced very good returns recently for bettors. Has to be carefully examined based on the strong speed figure earned in the last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 2:37pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 SOUTH COAST ROUTE (ML=8/1)
#3 MT. ZEROR (ML=5/1)
#9 A LOT OF VERVE (ML=10/1)


SOUTH COAST ROUTE - Trainer Fales moves this animal down the ladder based on class rating points to face a weaker level today. Look for a solid effort in this race. Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a vacation. The latest speed rating of 79 is the top last race speed rating in the group. Look for this one to go straight on to victory at some pretty good odds in this event. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire. MT. ZEROR - After the contest aboard this horse on Oct 10th, the rider is going to know the gelding much better. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. Silva drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more handicapping data to think this animal has a good chance at this level. A LOT OF VERVE - Looking over this gelding's PPs I see that the last time he tried this distance he got a speed figure that would be good enough to win today's race. You'll be generating money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this jock/conditioner combination. Gelding is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JUSTIN AZTECA (ML=5/2), #1 SHUDDER (ML=7/2), #2 COLONEL PUNCH (ML=6/1),

JUSTIN AZTECA - This racer hasn't had nary a blow out after running so well on Nov 26th. SHUDDER - Hasn't been doing anything at all of late. COLONEL PUNCH - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task done occasionally.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 SOUTH COAST ROUTE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,7,9] with [3,7,9] with [1,3,5,7,9] with [1,3,5,7,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21500 Class Rating: 68

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 VENTURE ON 3/1
# 5 OLLIE'S FOLLY 5/2
# 4 ROLL ON BIG O 7/2

VENTURE ON looks to be a competitive contender. With a formidable 66 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this gelding. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses recently. OLLIE'S FOLLY - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field. The big drop in class can only help out this horse today. ROLL ON BIG O - Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a competitive shot. No strangers to the winner's circle, Fadlovich and Haldar will most likely have this gelding breaking away from the field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Zia Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:29pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $67,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#4 MO MONEY MOLLY (ML=6/1)
#2 SIRRAH (ML=10/1)
#8 SAPELLO SAMBA (ML=8/1)


MO MONEY MOLLY - I look for this horse to sit off the pace and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the winner's circle. This filly is at the top in earnings per race entered. Take a long look at this animal in the paddock. This filly is in fine form, having run a good race on December 3rd, finishing first. SIRRAH - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Buechler. Just view her recent fig, 69. That one fits in this group. SAPELLO SAMBA - I have to figure Valdez-Cabral is making a good move here. This filly can only be aided by the shorter trip. Classic handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Should run a big one here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MARKED KISS (ML=8/5), #3 SHES ACTING SINGLE (ML=4/1), #7 SOUPED UP WILDCAT (ML=5/1),

MARKED KISS - Just cannot wager on any less than sharp equine right back after she doesn't land in the top three after any long breather. Tough to like the downward flow (67/63/56) of speed figures. SHES ACTING SINGLE - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this animal as a questionable contender. SOUPED UP WILDCAT - In this type of situation, this questionable contender's inability to make up ground in the last event is a troubling signal.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 MO MONEY MOLLY to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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