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Wednesday 11/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Cleveland Cavaliers boast an impressive 17-1 SU record and a flawless 10-0 mark at home, but a dip in form feels inevitable, especially after covering in five straight games. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks come to Cleveland hungry to snap a three-game skid. This line seems to overvalue the Cavs while underestimating the Hawks’ potential to bounce back.
Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on Florida-126 over Toronto at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday.
The Maple Leafs enter this matchup riding a four-game winning streak, but a closer look reveals some vulnerabilities. Three of those wins came at home, two were decided in overtime, and three were by just a single goal. Toronto has been outstanding on home ice this season, sporting a 10-3 record. However, they’ve been much less effective on the road, posting a pedestrian 3-3-2 mark. Traveling to face a hungry Florida squad could prove challenging.
Florida is looking to snap a four-game skid following Monday’s 4-1 home loss to Washington. Despite their recent struggles, the Panthers remain a dangerous team, especially at home. This contest provides an opportunity for the Panthers to course-correct against a Toronto team they defeated 5-2 in their most recent meeting last April. The Panthers' ability to find offensive balance and tighten up defensively will be crucial as they aim to end their slide.
Take Florida. Projected score: Florida 4, Toronto 3.
I'll lay the short number with New Orleans at home against the Raptors on Wednesday. The Pelicans have been one of the biggest disappointments so far, as they are just 4-14. Injuries have played a big part in their slow start. Things get a little better for this one with Dejounte Murray expected to return from injury. They could also get Brandon Ingram back. I think the return of Murray could spark this team and it certainly helps they are playing a bad Toronto team. Raptors are also just 4-14 to start the season, with a 0-10 record in road games. Give me the Pelicans -2.5!
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Our models suggest that the value is on the underdog.Minnesota are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games. Minnesota are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
LA is 6th in scoring chance differential at 5 on 5 in their last 10 games compared to 17th for the Jets (6% advantage). The Kings also have a greater than 4% advantage in Corsi, Fenwick (7%), medium danger chances, high danger chances (8%), and expected goals (8.5%). Winnipeg has not been the team we saw earlier in the season; they've shown they can be beaten. LA coming off a game they should not have lost (60% expected goals but poor goaltending) should give them extra motivation as well. Take the home team in this one.
We really like the Warriors in this matchup. This line is highly influenced by the assumed absence of Steph Curry, but our opinion is that this is an overreaction / overcorrection.
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