Tuesday 10/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#2 Turf Cat	Hoping the presence of the next guy listed will help keep the price OK while coming in off the dull Kentucky Downs effort -- the Horseshoe Indianapolis debut probably isn't too far off what he might need to be competitive with these.
#4 Pancho Slips Away	Expectations were high for him in the debut when sent to post at 7/5, and he showed pace before settling for second. He's not meeting a ton of serious speed from those who have raced, so any reasonable upside makes him a serious pace danger right back.
#6 Bee La Soul	He might be quick enough to prompt the speed from the outside, and he's another with some reasonable upside in the second career start.
Race Summary	Turf Cat has some room to wake up after the flat run at Kentucky Downs while trying the local footing and company for the first time.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 U Know When U Know	She finished up well to score on the turf at first asking at Laurel, and she comes back to try winners in a spot with a few potential speed types who should keep the tempo fair for her. Price probably won't be much, but I think she's supposed to handle this group.
#4 Thunder Bern	She's quick enough to track the slightly speedier players in the early going, and she might be the right one to round out the exacta behind the logical choice on top.
#1 Rue De Masel Tov	She woke up in a big way when getting her feet on the turf against claiming company, and I suppose there's a chance she breaks sharply enough from the inside to control this as the best of the pace.
Race Summary	U Know When U Know looked good in the debut score, and she appears to get a favorable setup on paper for this second start. Guessing she's along to land it late.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Digital Footprint	He continues to offer playable prices despite reliably being within a length or two of this kind. Think he's one of the ones to show up late.
#4 Catatumbo	He's another who has been finishing with consistency in recent starts, but I worry that he'll offer a less appealing price than the top choice despite their form being pretty similar.
#8 Delta Ridge	Nothing too inspiring in the recent lines on his page, but he has been in with better groups and might flash something better while trying this softer bunch. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
Race Summary	Digital Footprint and Catatumbo both look like late threats with these, but the former should be a better price and seems as due as anyone for a score.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #2

#3 OPTIMISTIC NATE (2-1)	Can maximize his speed on the class drop as today’s Best Bet.
#4 CARRY GRANT (5-1)	Earned top speed figure with blinkers on despite slow start.
#1 STAR OF CAESAREA (3-1)	Rallied for share in last pair, had speed in long sprint before adding blinks.
Race Summary	OPTIMISTIC NATE ran better than it appears in his debut, posted a bullet gate workout after the Ness claim, but succumbed to a duel on the class rise in his second start. He takes a magnified class drop as the controlling speed. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Parx - Race #4

#1 LIBERTY STAR (6-1)	Sprung upset off claim at expense of the 4-to-5 fave, must improve again.
#6 REBEL EMPIRE (8-5)	Takes catching, but short price and 1-for-20 record since 2023 the drawbacks.
#7 NAVY RULES (8-1)	Steps up off pair of sharp 6F victories recently at Parx.
Race Summary	LIBERTY STAR out-kicked the odds-on favorite to win off the claim for a high-percentage ‘repeat’ barn. He remained eligible for this condition despite the victory, lures Paco to ride and offers good value again. Bet to win and place and play a 1-6-7 exacta box.

Parx - Race #1

#2 THE BEARRISH ONE (6-1)	From dulled after winning 3 of 9 in first half of year, can awaken in here.
#7 DREAM KNIGHT (3-1)	One to beat off good Parx form, but he has been burning a lot of money.
#8 CATCH MY VIBE (12-1)	Upset win off layoff, caught wide in follow-up from same post.
Race Summary	THE BEARRISH ONE tracked the pace in mid-pack from post 9 at 7F before the deep closers got the money. He shortens up to 6-1/2F and sheds the blinkers, but he could be in good striking range as the light weight in a field that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place and 2-3, 7-3 and 8-3 daily doubles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 8	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 6:09P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 8, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2023 - 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CATATUMBO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DELTA RIDGE: Horse has a T rackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. AQUACAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DIGITAL FOOTPRINT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LIGHTNING CHARLIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s.
4	CATATUMBO	3/1	6/1
8	DELTA RIDGE	9/2	7/1
2	AQUACAT	4/1	7/1
7	DIGITAL FOOTPRINT	10/1	8/1
5	LIGHTNING CHARLIE	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	CREATIVE CHOICE	9	20/1	Front-runner	85	76	79.0	68.4	54.9
6	ADIOS BOBBY	6	12/1	Front-runner	87	74	74.0	74.8	59.8
2	AQUACAT	2	4/1	Front-runner	84	79	70.6	73.6	62.1
3	CLEMSON TIGER	3	10/1	Stalker	89	73	60.8	75.2	60.7
1	DARK SIDE (IRE)	1	7/2	Stalker	81	79	57.2	72.0	66.0
5	LIGHTNING CHARLIE	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	78	69.8	74.3	65.3
8	DELTA RIDGE	8	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	87	82	59.4	79.0	73.0
7	DIGITAL FOOTPRINT	7	10/1	Trailer	88	78	59.6	76.8	67.8
4	CATATUMBO	4	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	80	68.0	78.4	74.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 2:40P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, IF FOR $3,750, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS)(LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS) IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. J M R SWEET ESME is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * WICKEN CENTS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designatio n or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KINDOFBLUEKITTEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3	WICKEN CENTS	10/1	5/2
6	KINDOFBLUEKITTEN	7/2	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	J M R SWEET ESME	8	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	25.6	28.4	20.4
6	KINDOFBLUEKITTEN	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	51	47	87.0	36.0	30.0
5	SUGAR DROP	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	65.9	33.4	26.9
3	WICKEN CENTS	3	10/1	Trailer	53	50	47.0	42.4	38.9
1	TENGO SECRETOS	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.4	16.1	7.6
2	SHE IS HOPEFUL	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	9.5	21.8	12.8

Unknown Running Style: NOTYOURHUNNY (5/1) [Jockey: Husbands Terry - Trainer: Humber Joseph], ONE HELL OF A GIRL (5/2) [Jockey: Buchanan Marklee Z - Trainer: Raghunath Eric].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ERNESTINA 7/2
# 1 LITTLE SASSER 8/1
# 3 WILDWOOD ENCORE 3/1

I back ERNESTINA here. Has strong Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a wager for this race. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this bunch. She has solid class ratings, averaging 77, and has to be given a chance for this event. LITTLE SASSER - This racer should be played at the expected high odds. Trainers don't bring ponies back this soon without any reason. WILDWOOD ENCORE - Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. Becker and Wales have won 31 percent of their races giving this horse a competitive chance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 3:53pm - Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 MIDNIGHT IN ALASKA (ML=9/2)
#7 SUMMER'S GIFT (ML=3/1)
#3 AEGEAN SEA (ML=7/2)
#1 CONFIRMED STAR (ML=5/2)


MIDNIGHT IN ALASKA - Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation. Trainer Demasi moves this horse to a lower class rank to face weaker company. Look for a good race given the class advantage. I know the barn is serious today. The mare gets Lasix for the first time. Lower weight of -6. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this mare falls into this category. SUMMER'S GIFT - Gonzalez was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another indication that this horse is the class of the field. AEGEAN SEA - She must like the track here. Shipped in to finish first on September 10th and she looks tough once again. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good signal. This mare is most obviously on the improve with speed figs of 66, 79, 85 last 3 out. You have to consider the solid works of late. CONFIRMED STAR - When a horse finishes in the money as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. This filly is in top form right now. Ended up third last out and comes back soon. The last speed rating of 92 is the highest last race speed rating in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DEWEY DOIT (ML=6/1), #5 SHETALKSTOMUCH (ML=6/1),

DEWEY DOIT - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late. SHETALKSTOMUCH - You always figure that this animal has a shot to be victorious, but she fails frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 MIDNIGHT IN ALASKA on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $46240 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HAILSTORM 8/5
# 6 ROCKET HOSS 3/1
# 1 EXECUTIVE POWER 5/1

HAILSTORM looks competitive to best this field. His 83 average has this colt with among the best Equibase speed figs for this race. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. Has recorded solid speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. ROCKET HOSS - Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be up on the lead early on. With a quite good 90 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this affair. EXECUTIVE POWER - Looks respectable against this field and will probably be one of the front-runners. Must be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,900 Class Rating: 46

Rating:

#7 IAMAMASON (ML=9/2)
#5 GABADOST (ML=5/1)


IAMAMASON - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice outing in the last race within the last 30 days. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. GABADOST - Terraza comes to race again after getting to know the filly in the last race. Ran a lackluster race at Thistledown in the last race. Racing without the slop puts this filly at the top of my contenders list.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WAVES OF LIBERTY (ML=9/5), #6 MOBIL ENSIGN (ML=2/1), #3 CATTY REMARK (ML=8/1),

WAVES OF LIBERTY - Didn't look so good last time out. Probably won't do much running today. Hard to back the favorite when she continues to lose as the favorite. MOBIL ENSIGN - Will be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. CATTY REMARK - Can't bet on this runner in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair recently. Showed some physical problems in the last race at Thistledown.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 IAMAMASON on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip