Saturday 10/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:33 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 18 Saturday Stakes in 18 Sentences | Oct. 5, 2024

October 3, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s a Breeders’ Cup launching pad Saturday across North America as we welcome Keeneland into the fall fold. Hop aboard the stakes express with stops in New York, Kentucky, California and Canada.

Here goes (in chronological order):

1. Belmont at the Big A Race 5, 2:13 pm ET | The 1-3/8 miles trip of the Jockey Club Derby Invitational looks to be a serious challenge on past performances and pedigrees for all 3 of the favorites, lending some hope to run-all-day class riser #6 El Rezeen to pull a rare upset for the Pletcher-Irad duo.

2. Belmont at the Big A Race 6, 2:45 pm ET | The Belmont Turf Sprint quality was emptied by an equine exodus to Keeneland for the more lucrative Woodford, leaving horse-for-course specialist #9 Nothing Better no excuses.

3. Belmont at the Big A Race 7, 3:17 pm ET | Frizette favorite #8 Senza Parole will be one of the shortest stakes prices of the day, deservedly so against a weak cast in which #6 Paradise City may best the rest.

4. Woodbine Race 5, 3:29 pm ET | Saratoga and Colonial shippers add intrigue to the 5-furlong Algonquin turf sprint for 2-year-old fillies, but expect #2 Bullet to bounce back after a troubled start and defend her home turf.

5. Keeneland Race 6, 3:40 pm ET | Last year’s Woodford 1-2 finishers are back, and an advantageous post and likely better price make #4 Our Shot the tab over #10 Arzak in a field that also includes Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champ #6 Nobals.

6. Belmont at the Big A Race 8, 3:49 pm ET | The 1-turn mile of the Champagne ought to help slow-starting Hopeful winner #9 Chancer McPatrick even more, but don’t be surprised if he’s all out to catch upset-minded #6 Vekoma Rules.

7. Woodbine Race 6, 4:02 pm ET | Since defending Singspiel champ #1 Palazzi gives himself a lot to do from far back, and #14 Truly Quality is a morning line favorite with a difficult post to overcome, #4 Malibu Mambo is the 10-1 ML play off a perfect prep.

8. Keeneland Race 7, 4:12 pm ET | Seven distaff sprinters in the Thoroughbred Club of America aren’t separated by much, but a win over the track and Keeneland ace pilot Luis Saez aboard give #3 Brightwork a very tepid nod.

9. Keeneland Race 8, 4:44 pm ET | Trainer Chad Brown has won the First Lady 6 years in a row (last year with #4 Gina Romantica), and the value play among his quartet entered here could be #8 Chili Flag, who is better than her last showed.

10. Santa Anita Race 3, 5:00 pm ET | Baffert has half of the 8 fillies in the 1-1/16 miles Oak Leaf, and the best BRIS late pace figure in the group belongs to #8 Non Compliant (Juan Hernandez opts to ride) as they extend their trips.

11. Woodbine Race 8, 5:08 pm ET | 2023 South African Horse of the Year Princess Calla makes her first start since a spring purchase and transfer to Chad Brown in the Dance Smartly, but it’s taken her a while to get to the races and that pushes me toward late-running #5 Nadette at 8-1 ML.

12. Keeneland Race 9, 5:16 pm ET | The 1-1/16 miles Breeders’ Futurity runs through #1 Ferocious and #5 East Avenue with the former better-equipped for the distance at his moment off a pair of strong Saratoga efforts.

13. Santa Anita Race 4, 5:30 pm ET | Wesley Ward’s #5 Dreamaway looked absolutely dominant in the Colleen at Monmouth and is too fast for those in the Speakeasy if she ships west; otherwise go with #2 Kale’s Angel for good turf sprint Peter Miller barn.

14. Woodbine Race 9, 5:40 pm ET | Local Tapeta sprint star #5 Patches O’Houlihan headlines the Nearctic, but his change to turf and a potential speed duel have me drooling to try #1 Dhabab from off the pace at 20-1 ML.

15. Keeneland Race 10, 5:48 pm ET | #9 Carl Spackler is favored in the $1.25 million Turf Mile off a career-best, but Frankel’s half-brother #2 Kikkuli brings European class to a division that’s been sub-par this year in the US and is the play.

16. Santa Anita Race 7, 7:00 pm ET | The Chillingworth gives likely Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf Sprint chalk #3 Sweet Azteca her final prep and her first match-up against rising star #2 Hope Road in what should be a short-priced exacta.

17. Santa Anita Race 8, 7:30 pm ET | Three eastern shippers, led by top choice #5 Beach Bomb, raid for the Rodeo Drive, where 3-year-old unbeaten #4 Iscreamuscream may come up short on distance and experience.

18. Santa Anita Race 9, 8:00 pm ET | The American Pharoah includes a trio of Bafferts, but #1 McKinzie Street was visually best of the Del Mar Futurity returnees here and has trained very well in company at XBTV since.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2024, 07:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday

October 3, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The Keeneland Fall Meet is without question one of my favorite meets of the year. Not only does it start out with a bang over the first few days, but there are great opportunities for horseplayers on a regular basis throughout the stand. The stakes races and the full field wide-open two-turn turf races come to mind first, but the 2YO maiden special weights and the high-level allowance and claiming races on dirt are clearly worth our time as well.

To add to the autumn festivities this year in the Lexington area, XpressBet and 1st/Bet have launched a $1M Rewards Points Late Pick 4 Hit/Split for all seventeen days of the meet. Just register for the promotion, piece together the winners, and earn your share of those rewards points in addition to the regular track payout. With that in mind, let’s dive into the Saturday Late Pick 4 that includes three Grade 1 events.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: First Lady (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Chili Flag; 10 Ag Bullet; 4 Gina Romantica
Backups: 2 Tarawa

Forecast: There is little doubt the pace will be honest in this year’s First Lady given the presence of #10 Ag Bullet. The Twirling Candy filly stretches out to two-turns after being hammered down to 5-2-favoritism last out in the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs and winning for absolute fun. The Richard Baltas trainee has shown the ability to get a mile before, but not against this level of competition. That said, she is a gal on the improve and worth serious consideration in her first start over the Keeneland lawn.

Trainer Chad Brown has won this race six years in a row and once again holds an extremely strong hand in the 2024 edition of the First Lady. #4 Gina Romantica won this race last year at odds of 11-1. She will not be close to that price despite failing at odds-on last out in the Ballston Spa (G2), but has shown an affinity for this turf course and projects to get a favorable trip on the cutback. Her stablemate #8 Chili Flag rattled off three straight wins earlier this year, including a win in the Just A Game (G1), but had no real shot when stablemate #11 Whitebeam walked on the lead in the Diana (G1). The 5YO mare has been freshened up and should be rolling late under Tyler Gaffalione. #2 Tarawa is the wild-card. She makes her first start in the States for Dermot Weld and could be the one making the last move.

Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Handsome Pants; 5 East Avenue
Backups: 1 Ferocious
Forecast: #1 Ferocious is listed as the 8-5-morning line favorite after re-rallying to finish second beaten half a length in the Hopeful (G1) last month. The extremely pricey son of Flatter dominated over the off track on debut and is hard to knock on paper, but visually underwhelmed in his first stakes try last month. The colt was under a ride early on and it appeared he would be off the board at 3 to 5, but ended up passing the majority of the field in the end. He is a tough read, but swallowing the chalk seems less than ideal.

#5 East Avenue was bet down to 6-5-favoritism on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh and ran to his price. The well-bred Godolphin homebred has to deal with plenty of others that want to be on or near the lead, but his class and ability are apparent. #4 Handsome Pants feels like the value play. The Daredevil colt got a perfect trip under Brian Hernandez Jr. in his debut score at Churchill Downs last month, but I am not sure I want to hold that against him. Not only, did he show serious professionalism winning at two-turns on debut, but he could get a similar trip on Saturday. He is my top choice given his likely off odds.

Race 10: Coolmore Turf Mile (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 More Than Looks
Backups: 9 Carl Spackler

Forecast: Trainer Todd Pletcher looks to win this event for his third consecutive year, but it is Chad Brown with 2-1-morning line favorite, #9 Carl Spackler. The 4YO colt has always been well meant, but put forth the best effort of his career last out in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1). The E Five Racing Thoroughbreds runner should have another favorable voyage with not much speed signed on in this year’s Coolmore Turf Mile. He is the obvious horse to beat, but I expect him to be a very popular single in the sequence.

#3 More Than Looks ran a well-beaten second to Carl Spackler last out at the Spa, but that was his first race off the layoff. He may not get a fast first half-mile to run at once again, but is all but certain to take a big step forward after shaking off the rust in August. If they over bet the chalk, I can see placing a Win wager on More Than Looks. Either way, I will use both with a preference to the late running Cherie DeVaux trainee who is likely to knock plenty of folks out as the second or third choice if he runs them down in the lane.

Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Nyquist Frequency; 5 Eglise; 7 It’s My Life
Backups: None

Forecast: The card concludes with a MSW event for 3YOs+ where #5 Eglise looms large after a pair of near misses for trainer Brian Lynch. The fact the son of Frosted failed to get the job done in both of those starts would normally worry me a bit, but in both efforts, it was way back to third. Furthermore, it is not as if he lost as a short-priced favorite in either try. He is difficult to toss, but I will use a couple of price options as well.

#2 Nyquist Frequency makes his first start as a 3YO for trainer Jordan Blair. He failed to cross the wire first in his three efforts as a 2YO, but ran well against better groups than he encounters here. At a huge price, he is a must use. #7 It’s My Life also intrigues. The Into Mischief colt ran well in a live MSW event at Gulfstream Park this winter, but went to the sidelines after. He came back in late August and ran a solid fourth in his comeback race over the Kentucky Downs lawn. Now he moves back to what is likely to be his preferred surface.

Good luck on this incredible card on Saturday!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:50 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/05/24

October 5, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 6th Race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 10-Mizzyaan
Other contenders: 7-Well Funded; 8-Helga Brandt (Ire)

Forecast: Mizzyaan has acclimated quite well since arriving from Dubai earlier this year and tipped her hand when despite losing much ground rallied bravely to be second in a similar two turn maiden affair on grass for older fillies and mares. In doing so she produced a 13 point Beyer speed figure improvement over her U.S. debut, and with another forward move today the daughter of Justify should be set to earn her diploma. Two easy breezes since raced will have her fit and ready, and with U. Rispoli riding her back the M. McCarthy-trained sophomore appears to have much in her favor. We like her in the win pool at or near her morning line of 5/2 and as the main punch in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita – 8th race - Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 4-Iscreamuscream
Other Contenders: 2-Sunset Glory (Ire).

Forecast: Iscreamuscream is unbeaten in four starts and faces her toughest test yet in this year’s edition of the Rodeo Drive S.-G2 for older fillies and mares. This will be her first try at 10 furlongs and her first facing older foes, but those challenges should be offset by the projected pace flow, which places her on the front end as the controlling speed and with the likelihood that she can coast early and never look back. A facile winner of the Del Mar Oaks-G1 last time out with a career top speed figure, the daughter of Twirling Candy is a highly versatile sort that can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, so even if the pace flow comes up contested regular pilot H. Berrios can assess the situation and adjust if need be. She’s listed at 8/5 on the morning line and will offer good wagering value even at that relatively short price if you can get it.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Santa Anita 9th Race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: A-
Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 7-Getaway Car
Backups: none.

Forecast: Although he was disappointing when establishing the pace before fading readily in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 last month, Getaway Carseems quite likely to snap back in a big way in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah S.-G1 for juveniles. Certainly bred to run this far (Curlin), the B. Baffert-trained colt removes blinkers, stretches out for the first time, and has been highly impressive in recent morning drills to strongly indicate that he’s set for a career top effort. We prefer to see patient tactics employed, and from where he’s drawn jockey J. Hernandez projects to enjoy an ideal trip outside and then have every chance to seal the deal when he presses the button at the head of the lane. We’ll consider a strong straight play at 2-1 on the morning line and we’re hopeful that we can get that price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:50 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 5, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:40 PM EST)

6-Deja Blu (7/5)-This Takter 2-year-old will likely be the odds on choice in this event. Winner of 4 straight at Lex and has done it for the most part coming off cover and has left little doubt. Has only 2 losses in 6 races, the 1st start here on a "good" track and suffered an interference break at M1 after going off as an odds-on choice.
8-R Charm (5/2)-Many will single Deja Blu and she has an edge racing 5-times on the clay but the Toscano pupil is no slouch. Has hit the board in 5 of 8 races and rallied with a 26.3 last panel to win the $250,000 NJ Classic at M1 in its last start on 9-6. Could be a threat if takes to the oval and doesn't need the start.

Race 7 (3:00 PM EST)

4-Fallout (8/5)-Comes in with a 2-race win streak, the last picture coming in the $740,000 Metro at Wbsb. Rolled home with a .53 last half and Tim Tetrick had a gear in his pocket no one else had. Has hit the board in 2 of 4 at Lex but is still looking to post a win. Should be able to down this group with a smooth trip.
7-AyeayeCaptian Deo (8-1)-Has faced some tough foes up North and looks like a real gimmick possibility. Does have good gate speed and should be there at the wire if takes to the oval . If AMac lands a good early seat without burning much gas this colt could make things interesting.

Race 8 (3:20 PM EST)

5-R Duchess (4-1)-This is another Wbsb invader who has battled well at a top level. Comes off an even try at 7/5 and will look for a bounce back effort at what should be a square price.
6-Kendra (3-1)-The Walner 2-year-old has been consistently in the hunt and is in sharp form. This will be its Kentucky debut and JMac should have her engaged when the wings fold.
8-Luna Lovegood (4-1)-Luna picked a bad time to look flat as a pancake when a $400,000 purse was on the line. This is this is the time to catch her at a s solid price if you feel a bounce back effort is coming.

Race 9 (3:40 PM EST)

1-Myonlylove (6/5)-Tuned up with a nice qualifier on 9-30 after being idle since 9-3. Recent form has been dull but lands in a great spot to break its maiden. This looks like a drop and pop situation, but won't offer any value.
8-Caviart Adele (5-1)-Willing to take a swing with a Takter NY bred with Yannick Gingras between the pipes. Using under the assumption the price will be better than the morning line. Has been handled cautiously in the last 2 races and maybe the wrapper comes off now and could also spice up the gimmicks.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

6,8/4,7/5,6,8/1,8
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #5

#6 Hedge	He's got some proving to do after needing a drop out of special weight company to graduate, but I think he's one of the more likely ones in here to be able to settle just a touch off the splits while the quicker players battle. Seems like an OK bit of pace on the page.
#7 Kirin	Cutback player won his only start on the dirt, so he has some room to bounce back after fading in that million-dollar Kentucky Downs stakes spot. Another who might be able to finish a bit.
#4 Macho Music	Dangerous player looks like he might be the best and most committed of the early battlers, and he has obviously been well meant through two starts.
Race Summary	Might take a two-deep stand here if all the pace and prompting types stay in. Hedge needs better but still has some room to come forward, especially if he can get a favorable race flow to spy and finish.

Keeneland - Race #6

#1 One Timer	Think he'll need a few things to go his way to score from the fence here, but there doesn't seem to be a ton of blazing speed signed on. Might have a go or keep tabs on Souper Quest?
#10 Arzak	Almost feel a bit silly picking against him as a horse for the course as he gets back to the scene of both his big scores, but I'm just a little worried that he's not going to get quite the setup needed to get all the way over the top. Respect him.
#8 Souper Quest	He's another with a bit of pace who has been competitive with some of these, and he could be the one on the front end early. Wouldn't be a surprise, but it also wouldn't be a shock to see him settle for another share.
Race Summary	One Timer has a bit of price appeal if he can find a good spot near the top. He's quick enough to be in the mix early on while the more obvious threats sort themselves out for a later run.

Keeneland - Race #8

#1 Fluffy Socks	She has tables to turn and some class questions to answer, but I also wonder if she just came back a little bit off the romping Pimlico Grade III score. Could see her saving some ground and getting in the picture if she can find her way back toward her best. She benefits if all the pressing types start to engage early.
#10 AG Bullet	Speed can stay a mile, but I still wonder if she's a little bit better as a longer-end sprinter. She'll be right there in the early going and can be dangerous if the potential pressers back off enough.
#4 Gina Romantica	She's one of the more likely winners today over a course she likes, and she has enough positional pace to get the jump on the deeper players.
Race Summary	Fluffy Socks could be one of those ones that doesn't seem impossible to find with Brown and Dettori on her page along with a few back races that would put her right in the mix with these. Could be tempted to lean on her a bit if I'm in the swinging mood.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:51 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 LUMINOUS RULER (5-2)	Sophomore filly can turn tables on 1-45 rival in second try for new connections.
#2 BRAVO REGINA (9-5)	Running out of chances at age 6 to upgrade runner-up finishes.
#1 MITI FAST FLOWER (8-1)	Romped to maiden victory from same post and at same distance.
Race Summary	LUMINOUS RULER followed a couple lengths behind BRAVO REGINA, who raced in-hand until the 3/8 pole in a longer route. The order remained unchanged as the race favorite pulled away from them both. Going with a win and place bet on LUMINOUS RULER in her second start for this barn after a five-week layoff against a morning-line favorite who is 1-for-45 with 10 seconds.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#4 BOH’S N O’s (4-	Has the ingredients for a minor upset in her third start of a cycle.
#9 NAMI (2-1)	Shook duel on turn, was ‘stubborn’ to the wire in near miss, can maximize her speed.
#5 CASTELLANA (8-1)	Disappointed in last pair but can’t be discounted off best Monmouth lines.
Race Summary	BOH’S N O’s chased but couldn’t stay with pace-setting runner-up NAMI last out, but with the addition of blinkers, the cutback from 6F to 5-1/2F and a 10-pound weight shift in her favor, she’s worth a playback. Bet to win and place and play a 4-9-ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#7 MISSION MIKE (10-1)	Could be on upset mission with plenty of speed to target.
#2 HENDRICKSON (5-1)	Led at stretch call in his last three starts on firm footing.
#6 BIG BIG STAR (8-1)	Got re-focused with blinkers on, ran third in blanket finish.
Race Summary	In a field loaded with speed, MISSION MIKE can make an upset run in his third start since March, something he was unable to do in a rapid-paced turf route for a higher claiming price. He won going away to break his maiden at 7-1/2F two starts back in a crowded field. Bet to win and place and play a 2-6-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:52 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
PURCHASE

Hastings - Race 1	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Daily Double
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES). BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $32,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * CLASS CODE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ABOVE AVERAGE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MATSQUI: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" design ation or an "L" designation. WIRLY GIRLY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer.
1	CLASS CODE	2/1	5/1
5	ABOVE AVERAGE	8/5	5/1
2	MATSQUI	4/1	6/1
4	WIRLY GIRLY	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	WIRLY GIRLY	4	7/2	Stalker	85	80	66.4	48.3	40.3
5	ABOVE AVERAGE	5	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	97	82	82.0	72.8	67.8
1	CLASS CODE	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	76	75.0	80.2	76.7
2	MATSQUI	2	4/1	Trailer	81	77	62.6	75.8	72.3
3	NEIGHNEIGH	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	65	75.9	63.9	55.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:52 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing
PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 4	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 4-5) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) .50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 8:54P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * TORTUGA ISLAND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MIDNIGHT'S GIRL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff . GHAALEB'S CITY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CANTOO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JULYNNE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
1	TORTUGA ISLAND	3/1	5/1
3	MIDNIGHT'S GIRL	7/2	7/1
2	GHAALEB'S CITY	2/1	7/1
6	CANTOO	4/1	8/1
4	JULYNNE	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MIDNIGHT'S GIRL	3	7/2	Stalker	71	68	53.8	64.0	58.0
1	TORTUGA ISLAND	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	81	59.0	63.6	59.1
6	CANTOO	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	67	45.8	65.6	59.6
4	JULYNNE	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	74	70	43.8	63.6	55.6
5	A REAL HERO	5	5/1	Trailer	70	67	31.4	62.0	52.5
2	GHAALEB'S CITY	2	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	73	68	40.0	68.8	62.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15700 Class Rating: 73

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SENSE OF URGENCY 6/1
# 4 AARON WHO 5/2
# 1 B R KIDD ROCK 10/1

My selection in this race is SENSE OF URGENCY. Ought to go to the lead and should never look back. Looks to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. AARON WHO - Has very strong front-end speed and will most likely fare very well against this group of horses in this race. Have to think this one will run well following the quick reversal of fortune. B R KIDD ROCK - Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 63 speed rating which is one of the best in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $1250000 Class Rating: 114

COOLMORE TURF MILE S. KEE - R10 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 TALK OF THE NATION 8/1
# 2 KIKKULI (GB) 4/1
# 9 CARL SPACKLER (IRE) 2/1

My selection here is TALK OF THE NATION and could score at a price in here. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 108 avg - of late. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the latest company kept. Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 107 avg Equibase Speed Figure. KIKKULI (GB) - With a sound jockey who has won at a very strong 18 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks. With Dettori uptop him, this colt ought to be able to break out sharply here. CARL SPACKLER (IRE) - Boasts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. With a competitive 114 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:53 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:32pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#4 MY SISTER CLURRIE (ML=5/1)
#7 STOLEN LAUGHTER (ML=4/1)

MY SISTER CLURRIE - Williams drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this one is in a good spot at this level. Should do well in this field. Weight shift of -5 from December 13th race at Charles Town. STOLEN LAUGHTER - This filly gets a weight break of -7 pounds from last race. Its possible this could make the difference in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LINDA'S TAJ (ML=5/2), #8 KAPADOKYA (ML=3/1), #1 CONTROLLED TEMPER (ML=7/2),

LINDA'S TAJ - Tough to like the downward flow (63/51/43) of speed figures. KAPADOKYA - Substandard speed rating in the last race at Charles Town at 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's event. CONTROLLED TEMPER - Finished seventh on September 21st after the long turnout. Doubtful if there will be any improvement in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 MY SISTER CLURRIE to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2024, 07:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #1 - Post: 12:10pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $90,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#1 UPSTANDING (ML=3/1)
#5 MASMAK (ML=2/1)

UPSTANDING - Horse looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. This horse brings in a lot of cash per start. Tops in this clash. MASMAK - You have to like that most recent race rating, 94, which is the top recent race speed figure of this group. I've always said that three or more morning workouts in two weeks equals a thoroughbred that's in good condition. So, I figure he'll be tough to beat. Horse has improved at least two speed figure points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue today. Colt put in a good late run at 7 furlongs and should relish the added distance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 IRON SIGHT (ML=3/1), #6 CUANDO (ML=4/1), #2 LUCA ON POINT (ML=8/1),

IRON SIGHT - Doesn't seem to have enough good aspects to warrant the reward. CUANDO - Finished fourth in his most recent effort with a substandard fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. LUCA ON POINT - Not a perfect 'spot' in this contest.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MASMAK - Lasix can cure a good many infirmities. This beautiful animal is getting it for the first time today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 UPSTANDING on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass