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NFL Football
Vikings -4.5 over Texans
Minnesota matches up extremely well against this Texans team. On offense the Vikings should have no problems scoring and on defense will be able to stop the run with both the Williams in the middle of the defensive line. Minnesota is a tough place to play and they should get a big home win today.
Oakland +3 over Atlanta
I like what Matt Ryan is doing for Atlanta, but this is a young football team going against an improving Raiders team with a ton of experience. Atlanta needs to mature some more before they start consistently winning road games in hostile environments. Take the Raiders as the home dog.
Seattle +7 over Philly
The Seahawks had a ton of WR injuries this year which allowed other guys to step up. Philly has played decent, but they really are just getting by in some of their wins. Seattle always plays Philly tough and this could be a tough spot for the Eagles as they travel to the west coast with some key offensive injuries. Look for a tight game. Take the Seahawks.
Jets +5 over Bills
This is a big AFC East game and again I am not completely sold on the Bills. Buffalo QB Edwards is banged up and they will be without their top receiver today. Brett Favre knows how to win in these spots, but I look for the defense to take over today. This should be a low scoring smash mouth type game. This spread is too high. Take New York.
10 units Colts -6
10 units Colts/Pats UNDER 44
10 units Parlay both above
5 units Browns -1.5
4 units Tampa Bay -9
3 units Eagles -6.5
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nfl. ravens @ browns under 36' & tampa bay @ kansas city under 37 (500* )
nfl. green bay+4' (30*)
nfl. falcons @ raiders under 41' (20*)
nfl. dallas+8' (20*)
nfl. jets+5' (10*). .
nfl. detroit+13 (10*) free play
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - HOUSTON....20 DIMER - BUFFALO....10 DIMERS - NEW ENGLAND, & OAKLAND
50 DIMER - HOUSTON TEXANS
The G-Man is shocked the Vikings are favored by this many! Maybe, the Vikes are able to pull out the win, but a look at Minnesota's last 2 wins shows a 3-point win against New Orleans, and a 2-point win at home against lowly Detroit.
Bottom line, the Vikings will NOT cover this one!
Houston is coming on strong, winning 3 in a row, and they have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. The combination of Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson has been yielding big dividends, and pass defense has been one of Minnesota's weak spots this year.
Another Minnesota weak spot has been their special teams, as their punting coverage has been atrocious, and Housto has a good punt returner in Jacoby Jones who has already returned a pair for TDs this year.
Have to grab the points in this one, as this one has Houston cover written ALL OVER IT!
20 DIMER - BUFFALO BILLS
For those of you keeping track, Brett Favre has thrown picks in 6 straight games, and last week's 3 interception performance - including one returned over 90 yards for a score - has the G-Man raising the red flag on the Jets today!
New York has dropped the last 3 series meetings with the Bills, both straight up, and against the spread, and the Jets have also dropped their last pair of road games both straight up, and against the spread.
I expect a full bounce back from Buffalo after losing at Miami last Sunday, as the Bills are 3-0 at home, covering in 2 of 3 this season.
Overall, the Bills are on a 12-4 spread run at home their last 16.
Gotta lay the lumber with the Bills.
10 DIMER - OAKLAND RAIDERS
I must admit, I am impressed with the job 1st year coach Mike Smith, and first year quarterback Matt Ryan have done in turning around the Falcons so quickly, but today they are in a very bad spot.
Atlanta played their asses off at Philadelphia last week, only to get jobbed by the zebras on a muffed punt turnover late. Now the Falcons will have to travel west for a date with the Raiders in a game they think they should win.
Not so fast, as Oakland's last home game was an upset win against the Jets in overtime. The Falcons are playing as the road favorite first time since 2006, a role in which they have failed 2 of their last 3!
Very dicey spot for Atlanta, and they are just not ready yet to win a road game like this.
Take the Raiders.
10 DIMER - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Sure, Tom Brady is out for the year for New England, but Indianapolis is also dealing with a rash of injuries, and the fact remains Peyton Manning is certainly a notch off his usual machine-like self, as he has been picked off at will this season.
Indy is back home after dropping their last pair of games on the road, and they are just 1-3-1 against the spread as a favorite thus far this season.
New England has won their last pair of games, and 3 of 4 straight up, and this impost is just high enough where I can see the Pats sneaking inside the impost against an Indy team that will be happy with any win they can get right now.
I say take the points with the Pats who are 15-6 against the spread their last 21 as the visitor. Make that 16-6 after tonight's cover.
405 BAL 3.0 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 406 CLE
Analysis: **** NFL 4* AFC NORTH 4* GAME of the MONTH ****
(BUY the 1/2 Point to +3...even if you have to lay -125)
This is the exact reason that although I had this game already confirmed....that I waited before posting...Because I was informed by many of the books we have as sources, that the amount of work coming in on Cleveland...in the form of Straight Bets, Parlays, and Teasers...are going to force them to adjust the number and it may still go higher...
But I do like the fact that they aren't yet willing to move it to 3 on their own...which is something that they would love to do...if not for the fact, that the "Outfits" would almost definately come in and take all the Ravens action they could get...
This is a situation where once again the "public perception" has forced the books to offer much move value on the Ravens than they should be...There is no one sharp that I've spoken to, who has made this game any higher than a "Pick"...and even at that number...Based on my "projected final"...we would still be backing the Ravens...with the only difference being it would probably be a 2*...
This is one of those games that will almost definately help decide the sportsbooks winning or losing for the day...at least heading into the night-cap and MNF...Because for some reason, it's being bet as if the public is holding tomorrow's paper...
As I always say...I've learned that although I don't mind being on the side of the books...In today's market, you definately need more than that to take a position....And I really feel that we have that, with both the line being way too high, and Baltimore really matching up well with the Browns...Something they already showed early in the season...
Last Year the Browns swept the season series...Look for the Ravens to return the favor this afternoon...but for safty's sake...let's go ahead and take this up to +3...and make it our 4* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH...VR
northcoastess with the mostess // 3.5 STAR PHILLY-6- // 3 STAR BUFFALO-5 // 3 STAR TAMPA BAY-9 // phil's very personable plays // 3 STAR GIANTS-8- // 3 STAR TENN-4 // 3 STAR ARIZONA-3 // 3 STAR CLEV-2 !!
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