7-17-11

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Rays
By Doc Sports



Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (125, 8)

Tampa won Friday and Boston won Saturday, setting up Sunday's rubber game.

TROUBLE REACHING HOME, AT HOME

Home has not been where the runs are for the Rays. Overall, they are averaging 4.27 runs a game (14th best in MLB) but most of their scoring has been on the road. At Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay averages only 3.4 runs per game, which that ranks among the worst in baseball.

But the Rays’ bats have been coming alive in the second half of the season. Before the break, they scored a season-high eight runs against the Cardinals at home in a win. And, in their first game after the break against the Red Sox, the Rays set another season-high when they scored nine in a 9-6 win in the series opener.

WE’RE GOING STREAKING

Count the Boston Red Sox among the teams not happy to see the All-Star break arrive. Boston had been on a tear, winning six consecutive games including a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in which they scored 32 runs. Then the All-Star Break arrived and a four-day layoff was followed by a 9-6 loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. The Red Sox bounced back with a 9-5 win Saturday.

Boston has traditionally been a slow-starting team after the break. The Red Sox haven’t won the series immediately following the All-Star break in 11 years.

DELAYED HOMECOMING

Former Tampa Bay Ray Carl Crawford will not be joining his former and current teammates in Tropicana Field for this series. Crawford is still nursing a hamstring strain and will not rejoin the Red Sox until Monday. He is currently rehabbing at Triple-A Pawtucket. Without Crawford, the Red Sox are 13-9 overall this season.

ONE-HIT WONDER

Sunday night marks Josh Beckett’s return to the scene of his one-hitter on June 15. Beckett was sensational in a 3-0 Boston win at Tropicana Field, as only a third-inning single separated him from a perfect game. Beckett breezed through the contest, throwing only 97 pitches and striking out six. It was his only meeting against the Rays this season.

Since that game, he has been less than spectacular, yielding nine earned runs in 19 innings of work. Beckett is also coming off a knee injury, hyperextending his left knee against the Orioles last week. The injury forced him out of the American League’s rotation for the All-Star Game in Arizona this past week.

"I played long toss (on) some flat ground," Beckett told MLB.com this week. "Everything is good, just like I said it was. If that would have been a regular game, I would have pitched in it. It's just tough. You go out there, there's a lot of things going on before the (All-Star Game), maybe time is not always on your side."

Beckett is 8-4 with a career 3.15 ERA and 125 strikeouts versus the Rays.

RAY OF LIGHT

If Tampa Bay wants to contend in the AL East, it will need No. 4 starter Jeff Niemann (4-4, 4.53 ERA) to turn in more performances like his last two.

The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann’s last four starts, including a pair of 5-1 wins over the Cardinals and Yankees in which Niemann allowed a combined two earned runs in over 13 innings of work. He has been a different pitcher since rejoining the Rays rotation on June 20. He had been sidelined with a lower back strain for nearly two months. Before the injury he was 1-4 with a 5.72 ERA. Since returning, he is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA.

NOTEWORTHY NUMBERS

- Boston is 13-25 in games during the first series following the All-Star break since 2001.

- Boston is 21-6 in its last 26 road games versus a team with a winning record.

- Tampa Bay is 11-6 in the last 17 meetings between the two teams, including 7-4 at home.

- Tampa Bay is 5-2 in its last seven games against Beckett.

- Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce is the only Ray batting over .280. The Red Sox have five players batting over .280, including Adrian Gonzalez (.350), Jacoby Ellsbury (.315) and David Ortiz (.300).

- The Red Sox are 2-0 in Sunday Night Baseball this year, winning two games against the Yankees. This is Tampa Bay’s first Sunday night game.

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Rays
By Doc Sports



Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (125, 8)

Tampa won Friday and Boston won Saturday, setting up Sunday's rubber game.

TROUBLE REACHING HOME, AT HOME

Home has not been where the runs are for the Rays. Overall, they are averaging 4.27 runs a game (14th best in MLB) but most of their scoring has been on the road. At Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay averages only 3.4 runs per game, which that ranks among the worst in baseball.

But the Rays’ bats have been coming alive in the second half of the season. Before the break, they scored a season-high eight runs against the Cardinals at home in a win. And, in their first game after the break against the Red Sox, the Rays set another season-high when they scored nine in a 9-6 win in the series opener.

WE’RE GOING STREAKING

Count the Boston Red Sox among the teams not happy to see the All-Star break arrive. Boston had been on a tear, winning six consecutive games including a four-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in which they scored 32 runs. Then the All-Star Break arrived and a four-day layoff was followed by a 9-6 loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. The Red Sox bounced back with a 9-5 win Saturday.

Boston has traditionally been a slow-starting team after the break. The Red Sox haven’t won the series immediately following the All-Star break in 11 years.

DELAYED HOMECOMING

Former Tampa Bay Ray Carl Crawford will not be joining his former and current teammates in Tropicana Field for this series. Crawford is still nursing a hamstring strain and will not rejoin the Red Sox until Monday. He is currently rehabbing at Triple-A Pawtucket. Without Crawford, the Red Sox are 13-9 overall this season.

ONE-HIT WONDER

Sunday night marks Josh Beckett’s return to the scene of his one-hitter on June 15. Beckett was sensational in a 3-0 Boston win at Tropicana Field, as only a third-inning single separated him from a perfect game. Beckett breezed through the contest, throwing only 97 pitches and striking out six. It was his only meeting against the Rays this season.

Since that game, he has been less than spectacular, yielding nine earned runs in 19 innings of work. Beckett is also coming off a knee injury, hyperextending his left knee against the Orioles last week. The injury forced him out of the American League’s rotation for the All-Star Game in Arizona this past week.

"I played long toss (on) some flat ground," Beckett told MLB.com this week. "Everything is good, just like I said it was. If that would have been a regular game, I would have pitched in it. It's just tough. You go out there, there's a lot of things going on before the (All-Star Game), maybe time is not always on your side."

Beckett is 8-4 with a career 3.15 ERA and 125 strikeouts versus the Rays.

RAY OF LIGHT

If Tampa Bay wants to contend in the AL East, it will need No. 4 starter Jeff Niemann (4-4, 4.53 ERA) to turn in more performances like his last two.

The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann’s last four starts, including a pair of 5-1 wins over the Cardinals and Yankees in which Niemann allowed a combined two earned runs in over 13 innings of work. He has been a different pitcher since rejoining the Rays rotation on June 20. He had been sidelined with a lower back strain for nearly two months. Before the injury he was 1-4 with a 5.72 ERA. Since returning, he is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA.

NOTEWORTHY NUMBERS

- Boston is 13-25 in games during the first series following the All-Star break since 2001.

- Boston is 21-6 in its last 26 road games versus a team with a winning record.

- Tampa Bay is 11-6 in the last 17 meetings between the two teams, including 7-4 at home.

- Tampa Bay is 5-2 in its last seven games against Beckett.

- Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce is the only Ray batting over .280. The Red Sox have five players batting over .280, including Adrian Gonzalez (.350), Jacoby Ellsbury (.315) and David Ortiz (.300).

- The Red Sox are 2-0 in Sunday Night Baseball this year, winning two games against the Yankees. This is Tampa Bay’s first Sunday night game.

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Sunday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (9-3, 3.22 ERA)

Garcia continues to impress in his second full season in the bigs. The Cardinals lefty has won three straight outings despite a 4.15 ERA over that span. His most recent performance was a six-inning showing, in which Garcia allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out five batters. He was stellar in his last start versus the Reds, giving up only one earned run on two hits in six innings in an 8-1 victory on July 5.

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves (12-3, 1.87 ERA)

Jurrjens is giving the Phillies staff a run for their money in the NL Cy Young race. The Braves’ budding ace has won four straight starts and carries a 1.05 ERA during this streak. His final start before the break was a solid six-inning effort, in which the right hander allowed one run on five hits in a win over Colorado. Jurrjens’ brief showing in the All-Star Game forced the club to give him an extra day of rest heading into Sunday.


SLUMPING

Aaron Cook, Colorado Rockies (0-4, 5.82 ERA)

The Rockies sinkerballer hasn’t been himself since returning from a broken finger suffered this spring. In six starts this season, Cook has pitched just 34 total innings – an average of 5 2-3 innings per outing. He’s yet to earn a win and is coming off a disastrous outing against the Braves last Wednesday. He allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits in five innings.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox (4-3, 5.27 ERA)

The All-Star break wasn’t enough down time for Peavy, who had this Tuesday's start pushed to the weekend due to a sore right arm. He told reporters he’s only been about 70 percent for his last three starts, which explains his dreadful 0-2 record and 7.71 ERA in that span. In his last start before the break, Peavy lasted only 4 1-3 innings, giving up five runs on 10 hits in a 6-3 loss to the Twins.

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Fever-Sun Betting Preview
By ProCappers



Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-3, 151.5)

The Indiana Fever travel to Connecticut to play the Sun at 5:00 PM on Sunday, July 17, 2011. Connecticut is the favorite in this matchup, laying -2.5 points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 151.5.

When looking at the last 46 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 27 games compared to 19 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Indiana/Connecticut series is 73.7 ppg while the vistor has put up 71.3 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.4 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 46 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 2.4 ppg. That represents a value number of -0.1 when meassured against the offered line of -2.5, suggesting a wager on Indiana makes the most sense - at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 46 games between the Fever and the Sun is 145 per game. That creates a differential of 6.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 151.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Indiana as the road team and with Connecticut as the home team.

When looking at the last 21 games in this series while Connecticut has been the home team, we can see the Sun have won 14 games compared to 7 wins for the Fever. Average points scored per game by Connecticut in this situation is is 73.9 ppg while Indiana has put up 72 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 1.9 favoring the Fever.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 1.9 ppg. That represents a value number of -0.6 when meassured against the offered line of -2.5, suggesting a wager on the Fever makes the most sense. At least, that's the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 21 games between the Fever and the Sun is 145.9 per game. That creates a differential of 5.6 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 151.5 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Indiana Fever Cover the Spread?

This season the Indiana Fever have played 46 games, averaging 77.5 points per game, while allowing 73.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 29-17. Let's have a closer look at recent Indiana Fever results.

This season the Indiana Fever have played 22 games on the road, averaging 77.0 points per game, while allowing 75.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 12-10. Let's have a closer look at recent Indiana Fever results on the road.

Can the Connecticut Sun Cover the Spread?

This season the Connecticut Sun have played 42 games, averaging 80.1 points per game, while allowing 77.9 points per game. This has led to a season record of 23-17. Let's have a closer look at recent Connecticut Sun results.

This season the Connecticut Sun have played 20 games here at home, averaging 81.9 points per game, while allowing 73.7 points per game. This has led to a season record of 16-4. Let's have a closer look at recent Connecticut Sun results when playing at home

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LADY LUCK

Sunday's Best WNBA Bets

Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks (-8.5, 148.5)

Los Angeles basketball fans are used to having a Bryant lead their team to victory. But, in the case of the Sparks, it’s not No. 24 pushing the squad to back-to-back wins.

Joe Bryant, the former pro baller and father of Lakers star Kobe Bryant, is 2-0 as the new head coach of the L.A. Sparks, picking up win No. 2 with a 79-74 victory against the Tulsa Shock Friday night. This is Bryant’s second go-around as Los Angeles’ coach, having stepped into the head coaching role from 2005 to 2007.

Bryant has his work cut out for him in Los Angeles. His Sparks are playing without their best player, Candace Parker, who is out until at least next month with a torn meniscus. In order to make up for Parker’s 18 points per game, Bryant has leaned on bench offense in his two games on the sidelines, getting great production from his reserves.

In those two games, Los Angeles’ reserves have scored a combined 67 points, including a 49-point in an 84-74 victory over the San Antonio Silver Stars Tuesday.

That offensive outpouring has allowed L.A. to maintain its scoring prowess without Parker in the lineup. The Sparks are averaging more than 80 points (fourth in the WNBA) and have played over the total in seven of their 12 games this season. The two games under Bryant have pushed with the oddsmakers’ number.

PICK: Over


Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-3, 151.5)

The Connecticut Sun are happy to be back home after a three-game road trip. The Sun, who haven’t played inside Mohegan Sun Arena since July 1, went 1-2 SU and ATS on that trip, winning their most recent outing, 68-59, over the New York Liberty Friday.

Connecticut’s two defeats on the trip were due to terrible defense, giving up 90 points each to Indiana and Minnesota and allowing those opponents to shoot nearly 50 percent from the floor (combined 68 for 137). Against the Liberty, the Sun clamped down, allowing New York to shoot just 37.5 percent and forcing 18 turnovers.

"The defensive end has got to come first because that can get you through down times," head coach Mike Thibault told reporters. "(Indiana and Seattle) are both veteran teams that have played together for a while. We, for stretches, are like that, and for some others we're not. And certainly not for long enough stretches on the road."

Connecticut is yielding 73.2 points per game at home this year – nearly five points fewer than on the road. And, in the last five contests with the Fever, the over/under is 1-4.

PICK: Under

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Sunday's Betting Tips: McCutchen Thriving In Cleanup Spot

Weather To Watch

There’s a 60 percent chance of rain Sunday at the British Open, with winds from the southwest at 21 miles per hour. The high temperature will be 62 degrees.

Who’s Hot

MLB: Pittsburgh is 9-2 in Kevin Correia’s last 11 road starts.

MLB: Arizona is 8-2 in Daniel Hudson’s last 10 starts on grass.

WNBA: The New York Liberty are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games.

Who’s Not

MLB: Colorado is 2-15 in its last 17 Sunday games.

MLB: The Under is 2-8 in Homer Bailey’s last 10 starts for Cincinnati.

WNBA: The Indiana Fever are 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Connecticut.

Injury Not To Be Overlooked

Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, who has missed two games with an ankle injury, will be evaluated again on Sunday in hopes he can return Tuesday against Seattle. Bautista leads MLB with 31 homers.

Key Stat

16 – Heading into Saturday’s game, Pittsburgh center fielder Andrew McCutchen had 16 RBIs in the 14 games he’s hit cleanup. The Pirates, in the thick of the NL Central race, have not had a winning season since 1992.

Notable Quotable

"Sometimes we have inclinations that certain things might be happening in certain ballparks and we are aware of it and we try to protect our signs.” – Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who said the Blue Jays “could be” stealing signs using illegal methods.

Game Of The Day

USA vs. Japan in Women’s World Cup Final, 2:45 p.m. ET

Tips And Notes

The USA women, 22-0-3 alltime against Japan, are favored to win the World Cup title Sunday in Germany. betonline.com has the USA at -185 to hoist the trophy, with Japan set at +150. On the total of 2 goals in regulation, the odds are -150 on Over and +130 on Under.

Sources told ESPN that NFL free agency is likely to begin July 25, assuming progress continues to be made toward a new collective bargaining agreement. Teams would get a 72-hour window to negotiate with their own free agents before any team could approach those players.

Umpire Chris Conroy will be behind the plate when Baltimore hosts Cleveland on Sunday. The Over is 6-1 in Conroy's last seven games calling balls and strikes.

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Fenimore the Great

Sunday

18 Units Texas -134
2 Units Phil -106
2 Units Atl -188
2 Units Cubs -109
4 Units Det -113

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WNBA Basketball Picks
Washington at Los Angeles

The Mystics look to build on their 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 games in Los Angeles. Washington is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 17
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Tulsa at New York (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 96.171; New York 118.107
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 22; 157
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 12; 153
Dunkel Pick: New York (-12); Over

Game 653-654: Indiana at Connecticut (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.927; Connecticut 114.574
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 151
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Washington at Los Angeles (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.913; Los Angeles 109.829
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 158
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 10 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10 1/2); Over

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Today's MLB Picks
Cleveland at Baltimore

The Indians look to bounce back from yesterday's 6-5 loss and take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Cleveland is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 17
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.124; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.384
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 17.028; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over

Game 955-956: Washington at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gorzelanny) 14.923; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.992
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Correia) 15.268; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.049
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over

Game 959-960: Florida at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.963; Cubs (Wells) 14.236
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); N/A

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 15.040; Colorado (Cook) 13.745
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under

Game 963-964: San Francisco at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.598; San Diego (Latos) 15.026
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Under

Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.331; Arizona (Hudson) 15.716
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Humber) 15.391; Detroit (Penny) 14.014
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.429; Toronto (Villanueva) 16.666
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Under

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Gomez) 14.600; Baltimore (Atkins) 13.139
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Paulino) 15.200; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.589
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.735; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.060
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+125); Under

Game 977-978: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 16.653; Seattle (Beavan) 13.754
Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over

Game 979-980: Boston at Tampa Bay (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.615; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.013
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

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Arthur Ralph Sports

678- 509 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sun: Tigers -125

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Cubs Saturday.

Sunday it's the Cubs. The deficit is 2,365 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo got off to a hot start yesterday but cooled off quickly when the Rays provided no bennies, causing the dirty digits to grow to 1,815 mcgraws.

Today, since obviously Cain can do, Mr. Aitch will drop 20 units on the Giants.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Cards -135

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ultimate

14-2 run

ny yankees