6-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[timbob]

Cappers Access

Nationals(RL)
Yankees
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[timbob]

Saturday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (4-6, 3.10 ERA)

When you play for the Nats, things like Zimmermann’s pitching efforts tend to fly under the radar like a see-thru stealth bomber. The young righty has been exceptional for Washington in recent starts, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three trips to the bump. In fact, Zimmermann has been stellar for a while now, allowing three or fewer runs in eight straight appearances, in which the Nationals are 5-3 in those games. He faced the Orioles back on May 22, allowing only two runs on four hits over 6 1-3 innings of work in a 2-1 loss to Baltimore.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros (4-3, 3.12 ERA)

Rodriguez picked up where he left off Monday, pitching a six-inning, two-hit shutout in an 8-3 win over the Braves in his first start since coming off the DL with left elbow joint effusion. Before the injury, the Astros ace had allowed only seven total runs in 35 innings, putting up a 2-0 record over five games. He hasn’t tasted defeat since April 24 and has a 1.50 ERA during this undefeated streak. He’s 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA versus the Dodgers for his career.


SLUMPING

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (4-2, 423 ERA)

The Fish are quickly going belly-up in the NL East and now take on their state rivals, the Rays, in an interleague showdown. Nolasco’s fortunes haven’t been much different than his team’s. The right hander is 0-2 in his last four starts and is coming off a tough outing against the Diamondbacks, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in just three innings Monday. To make matters worse, Nolasco is 2-2 with a monster 8.38 ERA versus Tampa Bay for his career.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (2-4, 5.63 ERA)

Morrow was shelled by the Red Sox in his most recent outing, allowing nine runs on 10 hits in just over four innings of so-called work. The righty is winless in his last five starts, despite some solid efforts bookended by terrible performances. Morrow takes on the Reds in interleague play Saturday. He’s only faced Cincy for one scoreless inning during his career.

[timbob]

Saturday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (4-6, 3.10 ERA)

When you play for the Nats, things like Zimmermann’s pitching efforts tend to fly under the radar like a see-thru stealth bomber. The young righty has been exceptional for Washington in recent starts, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three trips to the bump. In fact, Zimmermann has been stellar for a while now, allowing three or fewer runs in eight straight appearances, in which the Nationals are 5-3 in those games. He faced the Orioles back on May 22, allowing only two runs on four hits over 6 1-3 innings of work in a 2-1 loss to Baltimore.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros (4-3, 3.12 ERA)

Rodriguez picked up where he left off Monday, pitching a six-inning, two-hit shutout in an 8-3 win over the Braves in his first start since coming off the DL with left elbow joint effusion. Before the injury, the Astros ace had allowed only seven total runs in 35 innings, putting up a 2-0 record over five games. He hasn’t tasted defeat since April 24 and has a 1.50 ERA during this undefeated streak. He’s 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA versus the Dodgers for his career.


SLUMPING

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (4-2, 423 ERA)

The Fish are quickly going belly-up in the NL East and now take on their state rivals, the Rays, in an interleague showdown. Nolasco’s fortunes haven’t been much different than his team’s. The right hander is 0-2 in his last four starts and is coming off a tough outing against the Diamondbacks, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in just three innings Monday. To make matters worse, Nolasco is 2-2 with a monster 8.38 ERA versus Tampa Bay for his career.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (2-4, 5.63 ERA)

Morrow was shelled by the Red Sox in his most recent outing, allowing nine runs on 10 hits in just over four innings of so-called work. The righty is winless in his last five starts, despite some solid efforts bookended by terrible performances. Morrow takes on the Reds in interleague play Saturday. He’s only faced Cincy for one scoreless inning during his career.

[timbob]

HOT LINES

Saturday's Best MLB Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians (-136, 8)

The Cleveland Indians once again are the best bet in baseball, after overtaking Pittsburgh for that title with Friday night’s 5-1 home win over the Pirates.

Today they hand the ball over to surging Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, including an impressive 1-0 win at Yankee Stadium on Monday. Quietly, Carrasco has been one of June’s best pitchers. He’s won five of his last six starts and has a tidy 2.21 ERA this month.

Pittsburgh counters with hard-luck lefty Paul Maholm, who can’t seem to get a lick of run support ever. Maholm is just 3-7, despite an ERA just over three. He deserves better, but just never seems to get it from the light-hitting Pirates.

Despite their recent struggles, the Indians have a lot of people believing that they’re going to be hanging around throughout the season, mainly because they’re extra tough at home (21-12). We’re getting a reasonable price on Carrasco, who’s got better stuff than the -136 we’re paying. Give us the Indians.

PICK: Indians


Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 7)

There’s money to be made betting against the lowly Astros throughout the season. But in this spot, we like Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez, who certainly has enough stuff to hamper the Dodgers’ offense. He’s 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his last three starts against the Dodgers.

Rookie Rubby De La Rosa, who was battling forearm cramps earlier this week, gets the start for the Dodgers. De La Rosa, a converted reliever, has lasted no more than five innings in either of his career starts.

We’ll wait to see if we can grab a heftier price, figuring that late Dodger money will come for this 10 p.m.ET start. And in the end, we’ll feel pretty comfortable that we’ll at least be in the game late behind Rodriguez and have a chance to cash as mid-sized underdog.

PICK: Astros

[timbob]

Saturday's Betting Tips: Rainy Day Forecast At U.S. Open

Weather To Watch

Thunderstorms are forecast throughout tomorrow’s third round of the U.S. Open at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md. The moisture will keep the greens soft, but will also slow the fairways, making the second longest setup in U.S. Open history seem even longer.

Who’s Hot

MLB: Red Sox starter Jon Lester has been filthy this month, with batters hitting .192 against him this month.
Lester and the Red Sox opened around -177 home favorites over the Brewers today.

MLB: Twins starter Scott Baker has been a driving force in Minnesota’s resurgence. Baker has struck out 52 in this last 52 1/3 inning pitched. Baker and the Twins host the Padres as -134 favorites.

WNBA: Favorites are off to a hot start this season, covering 61.9 percent of games through the

Who’s Not

MLB: Marlins’ starter Ricky Nolasco has a 8.36 ERA against the Rays, who are -122 favorites against visiting Florida.

MLB: Cubs starter Ryan Dempster has never beaten the Yankees (0-3) with a hefty 6.88 ERA against the Pinstripes.

Game Of The Day

There's a big fight in Big D, where Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett are both nearly 4-to-1 favorites over Fabricio Werdum and Brett Rogers, respectively, in the first round of the Strikeforce Grand Prix.

Quote To Note

“It was Tiger Woods of 11 years ago,” Ian Poulter told reporters regarding Rory Mcllroy’s performance in the first two rounds of the U.S. Open. McIlroy sits at 11-under par, six shots in front of Y.E. Yang.

Betting Tips

--Thirteen consecutive 54-hole leaders at major tournaments have failed to break 70 in the final round; only four have gone on to win the tournament.

--The Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds have been involved in the most games that have eclipsed the total this season. Heading into Friday night’s action, the Astros and Reds have each been involved in forty games that have gone over the total.

[timbob]

SPORTSBOOK INVESTING

MLB Colorado Rockies -155

BASEBALL CRUSHER

Play of the Day:
Colorado Rockies -155 over Tigers

SOCCER CRUSHER

Play of the Day:
Montreal Impact + Fort Lauderdale UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in United States

Hondo

Shame on Hondo for thinking the big bad Yankees might be able to stop the immortal Doug Davis from picking up his first victory of the season yesterday. The miscalculation proved costly as the debt bal looned to a season-high 1,460 roenickes.

Today, desperate for some dough, Mr. Aitch will turn to Baker against the Padres -- 10 units on the Twins. Also, he's high on Harrison over Lowe -- 10 on the Rangers.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets Friday night.

Saturday it's the Mets again. The deficit is 2,548 sirignanos.

[timbob]

Today's MLB Picks

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

The Pirates look to bounce back from their 5-1 loss last night and build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games after allowing 5 or more runs in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, JUNE 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Houston at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.560; LA Dodgers (De La Rosa) 15.028
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-125); Over
Game 953-954: Baltimore at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.184; Washington (Zimmerman) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Under
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 16.583; Boston (Lester) 16.394
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+160); Over
Game 957-958: Texas at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 14.387; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.322
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under
Game 959-960: NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.068; Cubs (Dempster) 15.139
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); N/A
Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.778; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.380
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 963-964: San Diego at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 15.545; Minnesota (Baker) 15.410
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under
Game 965-966: Florida at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 13.097; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.076
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over
Game 967-968: LA Angels at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 14.954; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.521
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under
Game 969-970: Toronto at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 15.032; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.821
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Over
Game 971-972: Kansas City at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mazzaro) 14.336; St. Louis (Westbrook) 14.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+145); Under
Game 973-974: Detroit at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Coke) 15.560; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.885
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-155); Over
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.949; Arizona (Duke) 15.543
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over
Game 977-978: San Francisco at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.865; Oakland (Moscoso) 14.391
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 979-980: Philadelphia at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Worley) 16.162; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.278
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over

[timbob]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Tulsa

The Mystics look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in the last 6 meetings between the two teams. Washington is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, JUNE 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Washington at Tulsa (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.865; Tulsa 103.313
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 158
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-4 1/2); Under

[timbob]

ultimate

Boston
NYY
Atlanta
Cincy
CWS

[timbob]

LADY LUCK

Saturday's Best WNBA Bets

Washington Mystics at Tulsa Shock (-5, 158)

At 0-5 to start the season, the Tulsa Shock are already running out of fingers to plug the dam.

The Shock are missing star forwards Elizabeth Cambage, who is dealing with a concussion, and Amber Holt (finger), leaving the front office to make some roster moves to improve the frontcourt. Tulsa dropped Miranda Ayim and brought in 6-foot-5 Jacinta Monroe. The sixth-overall pick in the 2010 WNBA Draft (to Washington), Monroe has been bumped from two teams due to injury issues.

"When Cambage went down, it exposed us and our lack of size," general manager and head coach Nolan Richardson told the Tulsa World. "(Monroe is) bringing size. She can run the floor and block some shots. Shot blocking is an area that she can really help us."

Defense and rebounding have been terrible for the Shock, who will benefit from Monroe’s size in the paint. However, trying to fix injury problems with an injury-prone player isn’t the sharpest move by the franchise.

Tulsa is 3-2 against the spread on the year, but has failed to cover as a single-digit underdog in those two ATS losses. The Mystics may only be 1-3 heading into the weekend but score and rebound with the best in the league - a combo that exposes the Shock's biggest weaknesses.

Look for Tulsa’s troubles to continue Saturday night.

PICK: Mystics

[timbob]

Washington Mystics-Tulsa Shock Series Betting Trends

Washington Mystics at Tulsa Shock (-5, 158)

The Washington Mystics travel to Tulsa to play the Shock at 7:00 PM on Saturday, June 18, 2011. Tulsa is the favorite in this matchup, laying points here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under .

When looking at the last 45 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 26 games compared to 19 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Washington/Tulsa series is 72 ppg while the vistor has put up 69.8 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 2.2 favoring the home team.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 45 games between the Mystics and the Shock is 141.8 per game.

Now let's take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Washington as the road team and with Tulsa as the home team.

When looking at the last 22 games in this series while Tulsa has been the home team, we can see the Shock have won 14 games compared to 8 wins for the Mystics. Average points scored per game by Tulsa in this situation is is 72.5 ppg while Washington has put up 68.2 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 4.3 favoring the .

The average Total points scored spanning the last 22 games between the Mystics and the Shock is 140.7 per game.

Can The Washington Mystics Cover The Spread?

This season the Washington Mystics have played 33 games, averaging 75.7 points per game, while allowing 73.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 19-14. Let's have a closer look at recent Washington Mystics results.

This season the Washington Mystics have played 16 games on the road, averaging 77.1 points per game, while allowing 78.2 points per game. This has led to a season record of 7-9. Let's have a closer look at recent Washington Mystics results on the road.

Can The Tulsa Shock Cover The Spread?

This season the Tulsa Shock have played 37 games, averaging 76.4 points per game, while allowing 88.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-14. Let's have a closer look at recent Tulsa Shock results.

This season the Tulsa Shock have played 17 games here at home, averaging 79.4 points per game, while allowing 88.5 points per game. This has led to a season record of 4-13. Let's have a closer look at recent Tulsa Shock results when playing at home.

[timbob]

MLB Write Up

Hot Pitchers
-- WRodriguez is 3-0, 1.50 in his last six starts. RDe la Rosa is 2-0, 3.60 in his first two starts; Dodgers scored 16 runs in those two games.
-- Zimmerman is 2-2, 1.62 in his last five starts.
-- Lester is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Wolf is 1-0, 2.18 in his last five starts.
-- Dempster is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts.
-- Carrasco won his last two starts, both 1-0 (15.1 IP). Maholm is 2-0, 2.77 in his last four starts.
-- Stauffer is 2-1, 2.70 in his last four starts. Baker is 2-1, 2.79 in his last four outings.
-- Cobb is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Pelfrey has a 2.77 RA in his last two starts, but no wins in last six.
-- Volquez is 1-0, 2.08 in two starts since coming back from the minors.
-- Coke has a 2.86 RA in his last four starts.
-- Danks is 2-0, 1.80 in his last two starts, after being winless in his first 11 starts this season.
-- JSanchez is 1-1, 3.07 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 3-2, 3.22 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Matusz is 1-1, 5.11 in his three starts this season.
-- Lowe is 0-2, 5.27 in his last five starts. Harrison is 0-2, 5.40 in his last couple starts.
-- Burnett is 2-3, 5.30 in his last six starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-2, 9.70 in his last four starts.
-- Haren is 2-2, 4.85 in his last four starts.
-- Morrow is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.
-- Westbrook has a 5.76 RA in his last four starts. Mazzaro is 1-1, 4.50 in three starts this season.
-- Jimenez is 1-4, 4.59 in his last five starts.
-- Duke is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 1-2, 6.06 in his last three starts.
-- Worley is 0-1, 12.38 in his last couple starts.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Houston road games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last ten Bronx games.
-- Four of last six Pirate road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Washington home games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Cincinnati home games went over total.
-- Six of last nine games at Citi Field went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Tampa Bay home games stayed under total.
-- Under is 8-4-2 in Atlanta's last fourteen home games.
-- Five of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six St Louis games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Coors Field went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Arizona home games stayed under total.
-- Eight of Giants' last ten games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Phillies' last ten road games.

Hot Teams
-- Bronx won six of its last eight games. Cubs won four of five.
-- Pirates won nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Washington won its last seven games, allowing 16 runs.
-- Red Sox won 12 of their last 13 games.
-- Reds won seven of their last eleven games. Toronto won three of its last four games.
-- Mets are 8-5 in their last thirteen games.
-- Minnesota won 12 of its last 14 games.
-- Tampa Bay is 7-4 in its last eleven games.
-- Colorado won its last three games, scoring 25 games. Tigers are 6-0 in game following their last six losses.
-- Arizona won five of its last seven games.
-- A's won their last three games, allowing seven runs.
-- Phillies won seven of their last eight games. Mariners won 11 of their last 16 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 14 games. Los Angeles lost its last five home games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games.
-- Angels lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Florida lost 16 of its last 17 games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six games. Braves lost four of their last five games.
-- San Diego lost six of its last seven games.
-- Cardinals lost their last seven games, allowing 47 runs. Royals lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
-- Giants are 6-8 in their last fourteen road games.
-- White Sox lost their last three games, scoring two runs.

Umpires
-- Hst-LA-- Underdog won four of last six BWelke games.
-- Blt-Wsh-- Four of five Rackley games went over the total.
-- Mil-Bos-- Home side won eight of last ten Cuzzi games; over is 3-0-2 in his last five.
-- Tex-Atl-- Underdogs won five of last seven Gorman games.
-- NY-Chi-- Last seven Holbrook games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Clev-- Five of last seven Cousins games went over total.
-- SD-Minn-- Last five Knight games went over the total.
-- Fla-TB-- Eight of last ten McClelland games went over the total.
-- LAA-NY-- Six of last nine Winters games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-Cin-- 12 of 16 Scott games went over the total.
-- KC-StL-- Four of last five Marquez games went over the total.
-- Det-Col-- Underdogs won last four Culbreth games.
-- Chi-Az-- Four of last five Fairchild games stayed under total.
-- SF-A's-- Under is 2-0 in Gonzalez games; total of six runs scored in those two games.
-- Phil-Sea-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Carapazza games.

NL-AL teams are 21-21 so far in interleague play.
Over is 15-9 in AL parks, 6-11-1 in NL parks, 21-20-1 overall.

[timbob]

Milwaukee at BOSTON (-1', +115)
By Jeff Benton

For Saturday’s freebie, which follows Friday’s strong underdog winner on the A’s over the Giants, we’ll play the Red Sox on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Brewers.

Boston lefty Jon Lester closed out May with an awful game against the White Sox (seven runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), but he’s bounced back strong in his first two starts this month, holding the Yankees to three runs in six innings (winning 6-4) and limiting the Blue Jays to a single run on two hits in eight innings on Sunday (winning 14-1). Lester’s strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two outings: 13-2.

After coming up short in Lester’s first three starts this season, the Red Sox are 9-2 in his last 11 trips to the mound. And of those nine wins, eight were by multiple runs, with three of the last four victories by scores of 14-1, 14-2 and 15-5!

Then again, the Red Sox are beating the snot out of pretty much everyone. They’re 12-1 in their last 13 games, with victories of 8-6, 9-8, 6-3, 6-4, 11-6, 8-3, 5-1, 16-4, 14-1, 3-0, 4-2 and 10-4 (over Milwaukee last night).

A few more reasons why we could can expect another Boston blowout today: The Brewers have been awful on the road this year (14-23, vs. 25-9 at home); the Brewers bat just .222 against left-handed pitchers on the road; and Milwaukee is giving the ball to Randy Wolf, who has had a solid season (4-4, 3.20 ERA, including a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts), but he’s also a southpaw, and the Red Sox murder lefty pitchers at home (.308 team average).

Finally, the Brewers are 1-4 in Wolf’s last five road starts, while the Sox are on positive runs of 79-29 in interleague play, 43-14 when Lester pitches at Fenway Park and 12-3 when Lester faces National League foes.

5♦ BOSTON (-1 1/2 runs) (Listing Pitchers)

Florida (+115) at TAMPA BAY
By Derek Mancini

Also, it should be no secret by now that I've won NINE straight Free Plays, including the Mariners over the Phillies 4-2 last night! I'm making it ten in a row with tonight's complimentary selection on the Marlins over the Rays. I know full well the Fish are struggling (1-16 in June), but this is a winnable match up for them, and the oddsmakers agree with me.

What do I mean by that? Well think about. You've got a team that's struggling and a pitcher who's coming off a terrible effort, and yet we find the Marlins and Nolasco as only slight underdogs here. That doesn't make much sense, unless you're trying to entice bettors to play the Rays by offering what looks like a bargain. Not buying it, as the Marlins may be having their issues, but you wouldn't know it by this line.

Moreover, I expect Nolasco to bounce back strong tonight. He's got rocked by the Diamondbacks, but that's hardly the norm for the veteran righty. True, he doesn't have the best numbers against Tampa, but once again, if the guys in Vegas really thought he was going to lose here they would've made you pay more of a premium on the Rays. Not to mention, for all of Florida problems at the plate, the Rays aren't exactly lighting it up either.

Opposing Nolasco is rookie Alex Cobb, who's been getting some public love in this contest thanks to his last three starts (1-0, 2.45 ERA). C'mon guys, you know as well as I do that we're looking at a very small sample size (4 games). And worse yet, Cobb's ERA at home is nearly 6 (5.91 to be exact). I'm just not buying what the rook is selling just yet, and neither should you.

Bottom line, don't let the Marlins struggles deter you from making what is a solid play on them tonight. The line is signaling a Florida bounce back, and I happen to believe Nolasco leads the way, thoroughly outpitcing his rookie counterpart. Doesn't hurt that the Rays pen has been down of late, posting a 5.16 ERA in their 22 2/3 innings. Take Florida with Nolasco over Tampa Bay and Cobb.

3♦ FLORIDA

San Diego at WASHINGTON (-130)
By Scott Delaney

Riding a 6-1 complimentary win streak on the diamond, I'm laying the Minnesota Twins for a second straight night, as they should have no trouble with the visiting San Diego Padres.

The Twins welcomed back Joe Mauer to the lineup and continued the hot streak they started without him, by toppling the Padres, 6-5, last night.

Minnesota, winners of 12 of 14, will be in a better flow tonight against the Pads, and will take it to Tim Stauffer, who is just 2-4 with a 3.28 ERA this season. He's had some of the most frustrating outings, includings last Sunday, when he limited the Nationalsto just five hits. The Pads took the 2-0 loss.

Stauffer can't seem to get any run support, as his offense has backed him with just seven runs of support over his last six outings.

I'd rather side with the Twins' Scott Bakers, who is in after tossing a five-hitter in an 8-1 win over the Rangers last weekend. He was dominant in striking out seven.

Baker will have even more command in this one, against a listless Padres team.

5♦ MINNESOTA

L.A. Angels (-130) at N.Y. METS
By Matt Rivers

Comp play for Saturday is the under in the Angels-Mets.

Going to look for a pitchers duel at Citi Field this Saturday when the Angels and the Mets tangle.

Last night the series opener held under the total, as the Angels are now on a 10-3-1 under run their past 14 games.

New York is also on an under run of their own, as they are now 6-2-1 under the posted price their last 9 games.

Dan Haren has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts, while his counterpart Mike Pelfrey has allowed 2 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 efforts.

I get the feeling that runs will be hard to come by with both of these teams struggling to find consistent offense this season in general.

With no evidence that these teams are going to have an offensive eruption, I will look for Haren and Pelfrey to duel deep into the Queens night this Saturday.

Go under in the Angels-Mets contest.

4♦ UNDER

Toronto at CINCINNATI (-130)
By Karl Garrett

Now to your Saturday comp play release, and it will be a totals play on the Blue Jays-Reds game.

After a 3-2 final last night, look for the hitting shoes to be on at the Great American Ball Park as Toronto and Cincinnati get set for a high-scoring affair.

Last night's game held under the total, but the Blue Jays are still on a protracted 7-3-1 over run their last 11 away games. Toronto is also on a 14-4-3 over clip their past 21 Saturday games, and with starter Brandon Morrow serving them up of late, it is not much of a stretch imagining this game ending in the over column.

Morrow sports an 8.80 ERA for his last 3 starts, and for the season his ERA is in the high 5s!

His counterpart Edinson Volquez has been pitching better since rejoining the starting rotation here in the month of June, but the fact remains his ERA this season is also over 5.

Cincinnati is on an 18-8-3 over burst their last 29 home games, and in games that Volquez has started at home, the Reds are on an 18-6-3 over tear the last 27 times the righty has started in his home ball park.

Nothing changes tonight, play the over in the Blue Jays-Reds game.

3♦ OVER

Detroit (+145) at COLORADO
By Chuck O'Brien

Moving on to today’s complimentary baseball selection – and I’m on a 9-3 roll with free picks after Friday’s easy 4♦ winner on Tampa Bay – go ahead and play the Tigers on the road at Colorado.

Fading struggling Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who after Sunday’s 10-8 loss to the Dodgers is now 1-7 with a 4.62 ERA overall and 0-5 with a 7.05 ERA at home. Against Los Angeles, Jimenez got rocked for seven runs (albeit only two earned) on 11 hits (three home runs) with just two strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings. He’s now given up 35 runs (29 earned), 53 hits (including seven HRs) and 17 walks in seven home starts covering just 37 innings.

Colorado is just 2-10 in Jimenez’s 12 starts this year (1-6 at home), and going back to last August, the Rockies are 5-16 with Jimenez on the mound, including 3-8 at home.

Overall, the Rockies are struggling. Forget about Friday’s 13-6 win over Detroit, as they’ve still dropped 34 of 56 since their red-hot 12-3 start to the year. On the flip side, the Tigers are on a 26-14 surge, having won 13 of their last 19. Detroit is also 66-33 in its last 98 interleague games and 11-4 in its last 14 vs. right-handed starters. Additionally, Tigers lefty Phil Coke is coming off one of his best performances of the season (6 1/3 shutout innings, allowing four hits and no walks in a 2-1 victory over Tampa Bay).

3♦ DETROIT

[timbob]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7 runs bet. Oakland and San Francisco

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

659- 501 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sat: Cinci Reds -130