10-27-08

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Jimmy Boyd

Monday 10/27
5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4
I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.

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Re: 10-27-08

Dave Malinksy

6* Tennessee

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Re: 10-27-08

Robert Ferrringo

2-Unit Play. Take #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

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Re: 10-27-08

Spylock

Tennessee....1 unit

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Re: 10-27-08

Allen Eastman

$2200.00-105 #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
This is our Game of the Week and we're backing the best team in the NFL right now. The Colts have been getting run over by more physical teams and they were absolutely manhandled last week against the Packers in a game in which they were favored. The Titans are the best team in the league because they are the most physical team in the league, and that is exactly what the Colts have had trouble with all year. Tennessee is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 6-0 ATS this year, and the 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Indy. This is a chance for the Titans to show the world that they are for real and I think they do it with another dominating performance. This is not the same Colts team that we're used to seeing and they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.

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Re: 10-27-08

WILD BILL

Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Colts-Titans (5 units)

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Re: 10-27-08

Chris Rizzo

BEST BET PLAY 2-0 YTD

INDY 4

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Re: 10-27-08

KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 10 October 23-27, 2008 •

Monday, October 27th, 2008

Colts (+4) @Titans
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The
defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play). They are definitely one of the league’s best coached by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However, it must be noted that they have not yet played a team with a winning record, and the best statistical
offense they have shut down is Houston, a team who has gotten much of their yards in games where they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not
saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they certainly better be if they want to pull away from a veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win
mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their defense, and I’d like to see them against a real offense before christening them the new king of this
division. The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC South, and have already lost a divisional game to Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will help them here. They have played a tougher schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably out again here, they are now healthy on the offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today
(check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything this league can throw at him defensively, and I have to believe that he will find something that works against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the losses coming in the season finale last year when
the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time that Tennessee has been favored during those 10 meetings before today. Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They have been in must win games before, while Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have the better record, but are they really better based on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on
that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is priced like those questions don’t exist when they certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and company. Indy by 3

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Re: 10-27-08

Doccs Sports

3 Unit Play. #126 Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans continue to be doubted week in and week out, but all that they do is win games and are playing an overrated Colts team on Monday night. Indy is still without S Bob Sanders and without him their defense is not the same. Green bay ran the ball right down their throat and expect the Titans and their one-two punch of Johnson and White to have similar success. The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

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Re: 10-27-08

Pointwise

MONDAY
TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Titans just keep on doing
it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1 ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC, with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs, respectively. Colts still seeking an overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately

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Re: 10-27-08

ErockMoney's pick:

Indianapolis (+4.5)

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Re: 10-27-08

Sixth Sense

TENNESSEE –4 Indianapolis 40.5 The Colts have been a very average team this year and it showed again last week in Green Bay against a Packers team that is better than average but not great. Indy was out gained just 4.8yppl to 4.6yppl but got a good portion of their yards in mop up duty. They also turned the ball over twice, with both interceptions returned for touchdowns. Tennessee destroyed a bad KC team, 34-10, out gaining the Chiefs 7.8yppl to 4.8yppl, including rushing for 8.3ypr. Indy averages just 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Their defense allows 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. Tennessee hasn’t been great on offense, averaging 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.8yps against 5.2yps and 4.3yppl against 4.7yppl overall. Tennessee qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 98-48-4 and a Monday night situation, which is 26-8-2. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 652-527-42, including a subset, which is 523-399-30. In addition, they qualify in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 280-192-20. Numbers favor Tennessee by 11 points and predict about 35 points. Indy has played three games on the road this year. They won at Minnesota 18-15 but were down in that game 15-0 because Minnesota couldn’t put the ball in the endzone. The Tennessee defense resembles Minnesota’s defense but is better. They were getting blown out at Houston before some lucky turnovers went their way to allow them back into the game. And, they were blown out at Green Bay. None of those teams are as good as Tennessee. The only way Tennessee doesn’t cover here is they either turn the ball over or can’t score touchdowns, which allows Indy to possibly stay in the game. Plenty of value, solid situations and a much better defense laying a short number at home. TENNESSEE 23 INDIANAPOLIS 13

3% TENNESSEE -4

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Re: 10-27-08

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Monday, October 27, 2008

Indianapolis Colts (+3½) at Tennessee Titans

Power Rating Projection:

Tennessee Titans 21 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tennessee Titans 19 Indianapolis Colts 17

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Re: 10-27-08

sportsinsights / marketwatch


Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.

The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

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Re: 10-27-08

Logical Approach

Ind/ten Under