10-26-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Bob Akmens NFL

8 units New England Patriots -7.5

5 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

5 units Cleveland Browns +7.0

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): OAKLAND RAIDERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS


Play: BALTIMORE RAVENS -7

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): TAMPA BAY BUCS vs DALLAS COWBOYS


Play: TAMPA BAY BUCS +2

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): NEW YORK GIANTS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS


Play: NEW YORK GIANTS +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Bob Balfe

Guys,
Horrible day yesterday. We were looking great at 3-0 coming into the weekend, but I dropped the ball. We will bounce back strong.


NFL Football
Raiders/Ravens Under 35.5
The Raiders held a great QB in check last week and will look to build on that momentum against a rookie in Joe Flacco. Oakland will have a tough time scoring on a solid as usual Ravens Defense. Russell looked OK last week, but I do not see Oakland generating much offense. Take the Under.

Buffalo/Miami Under 42
Both teams are having solid seasons, but Buffalo has exceeded everyone's expectations. I still think the Bills are overrated and will be going up against an experienced Dolphins Defense. Miami will also be going up against a more experienced defense and neither team has the type of offense to blow you away. We could see wind gust of 40mph. That is tough on the kickers and the QB's. Take the Under.

Giants +3 over Steelers
The Giants are on a roll and are lucky they wont be getting Pittsburgh's best punch on offense with so many injuries. New York has a huge offensive line and big receivers which should give the Steelers a lot of trouble. The Giants are last years Champs and are playing like them. Take the Gmen.

Cincinnati/Houston Over 45
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the man for the rest of the season under center for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick is a smart QB that should do alright against a suspect Texans Defense. Both teams have huge size mismatches of offense and should move the ball well today. The Bengals are a team that has nothing to lose and are very capable of winning this game. Look for the Bengals offense to find a spark and for Houston to take advantage of a bad Cincinnati defense. Take the Over.

College Football
No plays today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
TITLE: Teddy's Tremendous Trifecta
REASON FOR PICK:
We haven’t seen the Giants installed as underdogs since their incredible playoff run last year, when they were undervalued by bettors in each one of their four postseason victories. Frankly, I don’t believe that New York is priced properly in this ballgame either. We’re talking about a team that is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games away from home. The G-men are 8-1 ATS in their last nine tries as underdogs, reeling off seven outright upset victories during that span. And the Giants are primed to bring their ‘A’ game this week after relatively lethargic showings in each of their last two ballgames.
Clearly, the Giants had more than their fair share of trouble getting motivated for their last few games, an awful showing on Monday Night Football at Cleveland and a lethargic showing last week at home against the 49ers. Head coach Tom Coughlin: “I think we’re capable of playing a whole lot better than we did (against San Fran), but as I told the players, the objective was to win.” And the Giants did just that, winning and covering despite suffering one of the worst pointspread plays in football, the dreaded ‘blocked field goal returned for a touchdown’, a ten point swing. Take that single play out of the mix and we’re looking at a 32-10 Giants victory, a result that probably would have caused this pointspread to be much closer to ‘pick ‘em than it is.

The Giants match up extremely well with Pittsburgh on both sides of the football. We’ve seen the Steelers offense struggle twice so far this year, despite the fact that they’ve yet to beat a single team with a winning record in ’08. When the Steelers banged up OL (still missing guard Kendall Simmons and tackle Marvel Smith) faced the pressure defenses of Philadelphia and Baltimore, they simply couldn’t handle it. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a whopping nine times in the 15-6 loss at Philly, as the Steelers managed just 180 total yards of offense.

Against the Ravens, the Steelers escaped with a three point win, but the offense gained just 208 yards and produced only 13 points in regulation. With Willie Parker expected to miss the game again this week and Rashard Mendenhall languishing on injured reserve, expect the Steelers to find rushing yards much harder for Mewelde Moore to gain this week than they were last week against the Bengals porous defense. And don’t expect Roethlisberger to be able to handle the steady diet of blitzes that Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is sure to call – the Giants defense resembles Philadelphia’s more than any other team in the NFL.

The Giants, on the other hand, have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL, gaining 170 yards per game on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, by far the best in the league. Brandon Jacobs has 516 rushing yards and six touchdowns despite averaging only 16 rushing attempts per game. Derrick Ward has averaged 7.2 yards per carry for his eight rushing attempts. And the G-men’s offensive line has protected Eli Manning extremely well, allowing only six sacks all year on a QB who averages 31 passing attempts per game. There’s no reason to think that the Steelers suspect offense will be able to trade points with the Giants elite level attack. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: 6* Take the Giants.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

kelsos
50 units chairman goy

ny jets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Brian Hansen's NFC GOY is on Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Ethan Law

5% KANSAS CITY +$14 GOY
2% JACKSONVILLE -7
2% SEATTLE +5.5
2% KANSAS CITY +$600

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Bob Majors | NFL Side
double-dime bet200 BAL -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 199 OAK
Analysis:
Both Oakland Raiders (2-4) and Baltimore Ravens (3-3) ended their three game losing streak last weekend.

The Raiders will challenge the Raven defense this weekend as they amassed 344 total yards against the Jets in a 16-13 victory. QB JaMarcus Russell went 17-30 for 203 yards a 1 touchdown. The defense allowed the Jets 418 yards which was the 3rd time this season this has occurred.

The Ravens offense averages 17.5 ppg and 313.7 ypg which ranks 26th in the league. QB Joe Flacco went 17-23 for 232 yards and 1 touchdown against Miami and RB Willie McGahee ran 19 times for 105 yards and 1 touchdown. The defense surrendered a season high 359 yards last week against Miami, but still manage a 27-13 victory.

The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more that 350 total yards in their previous game. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

The defense is solid at home with the Ravens and we are going with giving the small number as the Ravens will shut down the Raiders.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet214 CAR / 213 ARI Over 42.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

1:05pm ET / Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

4:15pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL


Game One:
The high-flying Cardinals travel east this week rested, relaxed, and confident (4-2 SU).Off 2 huge home wins against the Cowboys and Bills, Arizona now ?holds all the CARDS? in regards to the weak NFC West division. We already know that they qualify in high-scoring ?WEST to EAST? Over tendencies, which is a good start, But both they AND the Panthers are active in two great ?Pre and Post? REST situations:
6-1 O/U since 1999 for Game 7 teams with REST off a SUATS win (CARDS).... and 6-0 O/U for Game 8 FAVS of < 6 points BEFORE their Bye Week (PANTHERS).

Arizona?s offense is in high gear, scoring 30, 41, and 35 in their last 3 games.
Since 2002, NFL dogs of 2+ points are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 30+ pts in their last 3 games.
And if you?re looking for a hot ultra-RECENT tendency: In the last 12 months, NFL underdogs playing off 3 straight ?OVERS? are 8-1 O/U.

The results of their last 2 games is a good sign for us, as revealed in a rare System: 3-0 O/U since 2002 for all NFL dogs of 6 < pts off a SU home win as a dog of +4 or more... and a SU home win before that. Meanwhile, the Panthers have reeled off 5 straight UNDERS in their last 5. This is the week we strike back: 10-2 O/U in the last 3 years for all NFL teams off 5 straight ?Unders? in a row... and 4-0 O/U if both tms are off a SU win. Carolina?s last 2 games have been a division roller coaster, as they creamed the Saints but lost big to the Bucs. 6-0 O/U since 1990: ALL home teams off a SU div win 17+ pts.. and a SU div loss of 17+ pts.


Game Two:
The winless Lions have allowed a whopping 31 PPG so far in the 2008 season, so this call is not much of a stretch. They?re the perfect opponent for the Redskins to get back in gear against. As we mention on page three of this week's TIPSHEET, Detroit is active in a pretty solid System as they seek their first win. 12-1 O/U since 1986 for Game 7 or greater non-division WINLESS teams against an opponent off a SU home win (like the Skins).
As a result of their early-season futility, the Lions are getting a ton of points at home this week. These ?long dogs? have been really hot so far this year for high-scoring potential.
ALL non-division home dogs of 7+ points are already a PERFECT 5-0 O/U this season... and 24-9 O/U in the last 3 years..

I also did some research in the set that I created in the database for the teams that play their home games indoors. The ?Dome Dog? aspect also reveals great OVER results for Detroit: 22-7 O/U for all DOME home dogs since 2001... 10-2 O/U as dogs of > 4 pts... and 7-0 O/U in the last 2 years.

On the Redskins side, we?ll be playing on another team that?s also on a UNDER streak (0-3 O/U last 3). This angle applies not just to the ?Skins, but to the Panthers (above) too: 8-1 O/U in the last 10 years for GAME 8 non-div FAVS playing off 3+ Straight ?Unders? in a row. Washington?s results in their last 2 homies (SU win ATS loss / SUATS loss) has them active in a nice one based on the site + spread. 5-0 O/U since 2002 ALL road favs of -4 > pts off a SU home win but ATS loss (vs Clev).. and a SUATS home loss before that. (vs Stl).


Game Three:
This NYJ / KC series is already 1-4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings. There were four upsets last week in the NFL as the Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, and Colts all lost as favorites (against the Ravens, Rams, Raiders, and Packers respectively). The Playbook database tells us to look for low-scoring results when these pissed-off losers return to the comforts of home in the month of October. 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. we note that NON-DIVISION teams (JETS and COWBOYS) are 2-10 O/U.... and have already gone 1-6 O/U so far in the 2008 season.

A review of this week's point spread and OU line also points us in the right direction: In the last 3 years, NFL teams are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U as non-div home favs of > 10 points with an OU line of 38 < points (Jets).

The Chiefs got bounced at home last week against the Titans 38-10. Another good sign for UNDER players:
1-6 o/U in the last 4 years for NFL road teams off a SU non-div home dog loss of 21 or more points (Chiefs).


Game Four:
Miami is another one of those teams that we just mentioned that lost at home last week as a FAVORITE. So they apply in the same OU System as the Jets: 3-13 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL October home teams playing off a SU favorite loss. As a team, this System fits right in as MIAMI is a PERFECT 0-7 O/U at home when playing off a SU favorite loss.

Buffalo comes in with tied with the 2nd best record in the NFL at 5-1 (tied with NY GIANTS and PITT STEELERS). In some cases, we will indeed play OVER for these 5-1 teams (see below). But in some situations, the database tells us to go the other way (UNDER).
3-13 O/U for all GAME SEVEN road favorites of 9 < points when their current W/L record is 5-1 on the year (Bills). When these 5-1 teams are laying points in the road against fellow DIVISION opponents (like the Bills), the results are 1-10 O/U.

The Bills looked very good last week against the Chargers in their first game after their Bye week.
3-13 o/U in the last 4 years for ALL NFL teams who won SU and ATS in the week AFTER Their Bye... and lost SU and ATS in the week before their Bye (Bills). ROAD teams in this situation are 1-8 O/U.


Game Five:
If we're talking about a HOME game in the 'STEEL CITY', we always look to the Over FIRST... instead of the Under. Steeler home ?OVERS? have been the way to go lately (23-5-1 O/U last 29 home games / 12-1 O/U as home favs < 7 pts). There?s no other way to go!

Our previous write-up mentioned Buffalo's 5-1 record entering their game against the Dolphins. Well, this game features not one but TWO teams who come in with a 5-1 SU record so far in the 2008 season.
This situation is rare, but the database tells us that When a 5-1 team takes on another 5-1 team, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U since 1993.

Both teams come in off B-I-G wins:
6-1 O/U since 1995 for all teams off a road win of 28 > pts (PITT) vs an opp off a home win of 10 > pts (NYG).

Here?s an Inter-conference query that also fits the bill:
17-4 O/U since 2004 for AFC home favs vs an NFC opp when both are off a SU win.

The Giants rebounded nicely off their Monday loss 2 weeks ago.
6-0 O/U since 2000 for all teams off a SU DD home fav win... and a SU road loss as favs of -7 > POINTS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Kelso

5 units Oak/Balt UNDER 35.5
4 units Tampa Bay +2
3 units Giants +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

ATS Lock Club Pro FB 10/26

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6 units Bills (pk)
5 units Eagles -9
4 units Ariz +4
4 units Wash -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Doccs Sports

4 Unit Play. #112 Take Over 43 in St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Patriots lit up the scoreboard last Monday night with an impressive beat down of Denver and we expect another high scoring game on Sunday as they play their second straight game @ Foxboro Stadium. The Rams have been the talk of the league the last two weeks, as they have notched two straight victories under new Coach Jim Haslett and the beat down Dallas last week. We will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. New England 31, St. Louis 24.

3 Unit Play. #118 Take Philadelphia Eagles -8 ½ over Atlanta Flacons (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Falcons are coming off a bye and playing a desperate team looking to stay in contention for a playoff birth in the NFC. The Eagles also had last week off and Coach Reid is 9-3 ATS when coming off of a bye. The Eagles are starting to get healthy with running back Westbrook likely back and he makes this offense go. RB Turner has had some big games but most of them came at home against bad teams and the Eagles defense will blitz early and often creating problems for young QB Ryan. Philly needs this one and they get it by double-digits. Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 17.

3 Unit Play. #126 Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans continue to be doubted week in and week out, but all that they do is win games and are playing an overrated Colts team on Monday night. Indy is still without S Bob Sanders and without him their defense is not the same. Green bay ran the ball right down their throat and expect the Titans and their one-two punch of Johnson and White to have similar success. The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Vegas Sports Experts

VSE NFL Plays for Sunday are:

10* Take Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta (Power Play)
1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
• 1-4 SU & ATS vs. NFC East Division Opponents
• 2-18 SU as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
• 3-11 ATS coming off an upset win as a home underdog

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

ATSLOCKS.COM


Falcons @ Eagles Under 45 (15 Units)

Steelers -3 (10 Units)

49ers -5.5 (10 Units)

Eagles -9 (5 Units)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-26-08

Northcoast Full Service Line

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Pro Play Of Week Balt, Overnight Chalk Dallas