10-20-08

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (4-5)







5* Best Bet New England over Denver by 14

Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up,wouldn't you say?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Spylock

Denver + 3 ....3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Kelsso Monday
Patriots -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Nsa

20* Den

10* Den / Ne Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

frank patron
10,000 unit mnf lock #6 in a row
denver broncos +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)



With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.

While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.

Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --

1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.

2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.

So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.

One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New England Patriots -3 (-110) (Play of the Day)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

rob Crowne
2* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!
NHL
Colorado @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Colorado -125
Los Angeles is 12-40 last 3 years after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Pacific. Avalanche are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win. Kings are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 15-43 in their last 58 games following a win. Kings are 1-5 in their last 6 Monday games. Kings are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Northwest. We'll play Colorado for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky


NFL Opinion only: New England

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NHL Total
double-dime bet58 LOS / 57 COL Under 6.0 Bodog
Analysis: UNDER 6 goals in Los Angeles ? Under new coach Terry Murray, the Kings have been phenomenal on the penalty kill this season. They have not allowed a power play goal this entire season as they have killed off all 19 chances through the first four games of this season! Offensively, the Kings have scored just four power play goals this season and three of those came against Anaheim. Los Angeles beat the Ducks 6-3 in that game because Anaheim, as usual, decided to get ?penalty-happy?. The Ducks continued their trend from last season as being one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Kings took advantage and won that game in a rout. However, take a look at the Kings other two games for a ?true look? into what their offense is doing this season. Los Angeles managed a total of just one goal in their first two games this season. Then, in their most recent game, the Kings were actually down 3-1 with about 22 minutes to go in the game before rallying for two goals to send the game into overtime where they won 4-3. As you can see, the Kings tendency has been to rely on their defense and penalty killing (when needed) and so tonight?s total (at a 6) is offering some significant line value for a play on the under! The Kings offense, coupled with the fact that they?ve allowed just ten goals in four games this season, just does not justify this high of a total. Certainly the visiting Avalanche have more of a deserved reputation for playing more ?open ice? higher-scoring games but the Kings, at home, should be able to dictate the tempo in this one. Also, while it is true that the Avalanche have allowed a lot of goals this season, they have shown the ability to play ?cleaner? on defense too as they held the Oilers to just three goals in a tight 3-2 loss at Edmonton eight days ago. Also, this past week the Avs did a good job in holding a ?backs to the wall? Flyers club to just two goals in a big home win for Colorado. The point is that if the Kings lull the Avs into a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game we should not be surprised here. Couple that with a huge total posted on this game and the play here is clearly the U-N-D-E-R!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* DENVER VS. NEW ENGLAND WINNER!
Pick # 1 Denver Broncos (3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet432 NEP / 431 DEN Under 49.0 SportBet
Analysis: The Patriots have little chance to win a shootout against the Broncos, so look for them to stay conservative on offense like they did in their first two wins of the season against the Chiefs and Jets. This is the highest posted total for a New England game since the Super Bowl, and we all know how that turned out with Tom Brady on the field. With Matt Cassel continuing to lead the Patriots offense, I expect them rely on the running game and short passes to move the ball and control the clock. I also think New England head coach Bill Belichick will figure out a way to hold Denver QB Jay Cutler in check. The Broncos have seen their last two games go UNDER by a combined 25 points, and their last three meetings with the Pats have all totaled 48 points or less. Bet the UNDER to cash again here as my Triple Dime MNF AFC Total Play O' the Year

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 431 DEN
Analysis:
Patriots -3

Analysis: Don't get put off by what you saw Sunday night when the Chargers destroyed the Patriots.

The Chargers' drubbing actually works in New England's favor because it keeps the spread down for this matchup.

The Patriots aren't a serious Super Bowl contender minus Tom Brady. But they are much better than what they showed Sunday night. They still are a legitimate division contender with the potential to win a playoff game or two.

Bill Belichick is that good of a coach. Look for him to have the right defensive game plan to confuse young Jay Cutler, who probably will be missing some of his skill position weapons.

The Broncos are weak defensively. Their interior is small and their safeties slow and weak in coverage. Denver only has covered two of its past 10 road games.

The Patriots' running attack is solid enough to take advantage and Matt Cassel has good targets with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and a healthy tight end Ben Watson to put up the needed points against such a weak defense.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

King Creole | NFL Side
double-dime bet432 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 431 DEN
Analysis: 8:35pm ET / Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
2** Play on: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Despite the fact that our weekend TOTALS PLAYS went 6-1 overall, we'll pass on the Over / Under in tonight's Broncos-Patriots game. But if you DO decide to play an Over / Under tonight, don't forget that all MONDAY games are already a PERFECT 7-0 O/U so far this season. That's not a recommendation, it's just a fact.

I much prefer some of the great ATS Systems in regards to tonight's SIDE PLAY.

MONDAY night non-div home favs of -5 < points (PATRIOTS) are 20-6 ATS since 1999 when taking on an opponent off a SUATS loss (broncos).... and 17-5 ATS versus and .500 > opponent.

Denver comes into tonight's game on an ATS tailspin as they have dropped FOUR games in a row against the spread.
NFL road teams with a .666 > winning percentage are 5-17 ATS since 2000 when playing off 3 or more straight ATS losses (broncos)... and 1-7 ATS in the last 3 years.

Let's expand our query by one more game:
0-6 ATS since 2000 for ALL road teams off 4 straight ATS losses in which they were favored by -3 or more points in ALL four games (broncos).

After scoring ton of points to start the season, the offense has dried up for Denver in their last 3 games... as they have scored only 19, 16, and 17 points.
0-5 ATS since 1992 for ALL NFL teams who scored 30+ points in 3 straight games... and then 20 < points in their last 3 games (broncos).

The Pats are glad to return home after struggling to put up points last week against the Chargers on Sunday night.
8-1 ATS in the last 4 years: NFL home teams who scored 13 < points last week... 30+ points in the game before that... and 13 < points in the game before that (PATRIOTS).

NEW ENGLAND is a great team to play 'ON: after they shit the bed on offense. The Patriots are 10-2-1 ATS since 2000 after scoring 10 or less points in a game... and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS since 2003.

One would think that when Denver is off a home FAVORITE loss, that they are a great "play ON". That's not the case.
DENVER is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS in the last 3 years when playing off a SU home FAVORITE loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-20-08

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NFL Football Power Play for Monday is:

10* Take New England (-3) over Denver (NFL Power Play)
8:30 PM EST

Denver
• 1-14 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 2-8 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite
• 5-15 ATS when playing in the 1st half of the season
• 4-14 ATS coming off a home game the last 3 seasons