10-19-08

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 25* AFC Game of the Year **60% NFL Run**
Play on Tennessee at 1:00 ET. Larger favorites have not been the way to go this year in the NFL, but considering the matchup, this number is very manageable. In fact, it's way low. Throw Kansas City's 33-19 win over Denver, three weeks ago, right out the window. They came right back the next week and were crushed 34-0 by Carolina, gaining only 127 yards of total offense in the process. Before the 4th quarter started (when the game was far out of reach), they only had 77 yards! Now, they are switching back to Brodie Croyle at QB, the team's FIFTH change under center already this season. Herm Edwards might say "You play to WIN the game," but his team must not be listening as they have lost 13 of 14 games going back to last season and are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 home games. There goes the old homefield advantage that used to exist at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the 2008 season couldn't be going any more differently for Tennessee. They are the only unbeaten team in the league (both SU and ATS) and while we would normally go against such a team, expecting a letdown, that's not the case with Jeff Fisher who is on a 13-3 ATS run away from home against teams with a win % of .250 or less. They are 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 games overall. The favorite has won and covered three straight in this H2H series. All of these streaks include a 26-17 Titans win here in KC last December. Over their last 10 games, the Titans have not allowed a single opponent to score more than 19 points. Over the same time, they are averaging 23 PPG on offense. They are #1 this year in the league in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 11.2 PPG. KC is also experiencing OL issues with promising rookie Branden Albert possibly out, meaning they have no chance against Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. As a team, they have no chance either. Tennessee is our 25* AFC Game of the Year!

Good luck, Lenny

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Kevin Kavitch Overall 21-12-1 after Week 6. Tops are now 5-1-0. ATS picks are 18-8-1 69%, totals are 3-4-0.

Solid matchup advantages and a good situation based on recent games. Both teams are 3-3 but Chicago has 3 close losses including a tough one last week on the road vs the Falcons. Minnesota squeeeked by the lowly Lions at home to climb back to .500. The Bears have been very solid vs the run, even better than the Vikings and what impresses me is Chicago's improvements in the passing game. Orton a top 10 fantasy QB? Strange but true and Hester is looking like a real WR. So running yards will have to be earned on both sides but Chicago has the tools to attack the below average Viking pass defence. Combined with a special teams edge, home field advantage, and last week's results I expect Chicago to be the better motivated team and earn a solid win and cover. Take Chicago -3 for a 4* Regular Play.


The Giants may have lost big last week but good teams don't bounce back as well as most people assume after their 1st loss. Double-digits vs a team that has things going for them on offence and defence? San Fran has played an unfortunate schedule losing to HIGHLY motivated teams recently to drop to 2-4. They had an excellent chance to take out the Eagles last week (leading) before turnovers killed them. At 2-4 and feeling they're better than their record shows they'll also have their fair share of motivation. Opposite line move in this one too as a bonus. Giants open at -12 and bets have poured in on them because "they'll be mad". However, the line is now at -10.5. Hmmm, I wonder why they're not -13 if so many love them? Like I've mentioned almost weekly, we've seen this movie before. Small, public (& typically losing) bets love the Giants but sharp money has created an opposite line-move. Take San Francisco +10.5 for a 4* Regular Play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Spylock
Houston-8 1/2... 1unit
Tampa Bay-10 1/2...1 unit
Denver + 3 ....3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!!
Pick # 1 Carolina Panthers (-3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Jeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet413 DAL -7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 414 STL
Analysis:
The Washington Redskins were in the worst spot of all NFL teams last week and who did they play? You guessed it the St. Louis Rams.



The Rams were outgained by nearly 200 yards, but due to the Redskins sloppy play throughout the game - St. Louis pulled off the victory.



Now enter the Dallas Cowboys - a team that's an AMAZING 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a road loss. That's right and they played deplorable football against Arizona last week.



I'm not about to back a faulty 1-4 team that benefited from playing off a bye week and catching a double-digit favorite team napping. Romo or not - America's team big on Sunday.






Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Total
double-dime bet412 MIA / 411 BAL Under 36.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Running the ball and defense.....That's how the Baltimore Ravens are going to try to win their first road game in quite some time.



Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in nearly two years and that's the basis of how Miami has been scoring points - establishing the run game and then letting Chad Pennington pick his spots. Problem is - Pennington can't extend the defense of Baltimore with his arm strength.



The UNDER is 6-1 in the Ravens last seven games in playing the second game of back-to-back road games. That certainly helps with the UNDER being 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs.



On Miami's defensive end - they will certainly sure things up against the pass versus the Ravens, as Flacco has yet to prove himself as a drop back passer in this league. The UNDER is 22-5 in the Dolphins last 27 games after allowing 250 or more passing yards.



Baltimore has been flexing its defensive strength as a road underdog of this type for years - with the UNDER being 34-16 in their last 50 getting seven points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Tony George | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 TEN -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 KAN
Analysis:


Tennessee -9

Kansas City is in bad shape. Larry Johnson is suspended, the Tony Gonzalez mess is all over the media, including his tirades over not being traded, defensive leader Donnie Edwards is still out, and Herm Edwards has been under fire all week. DISTRACTIONS AND DIS-ILLUSIONS. They are off a bye wee after getting waxed 34-0 by Carolina and all these distractions pale by comparison to the fact QB Brodie Croyle gets the start against a Tennessee team who is undefeated, with a awesome front four, one of the best teams in the AFC who unlike Denver, who came in here not ready to play and KC beat them. Jeff Fishers boys will show up with a baseball bat bat and beat them badly on the line of scrimmage and dominate. KC Averages 13 points a game and give up 26 ppg. Crazy things happen in the NFL every week and it is not a good idea many times to lay 9 on the road, but this is a BAD KC team against a great team who is always ready to play and win. Word is QB Vince Young will see time as a slot back and at WR, possibly some direct snap plays as well. Titans simply too much for KC, it could get ugly.

Play 1.5 Units by Tennessee - Top Play


Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Side
dime bet407 SDC 1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 408 BUF
Analysis:
San Diego +1

Tim to look at schedules. Buffalo off a beat down 41-17 at Arizona before the bye week, and that was really the only good team they have played bewside JAX. The Bills do play well at home, but the Chargers here in a pick em type game have the better better QB, better RB and better defense. Hard to go against that, even on the road and off a confidence building butt kicking of New England where they dominated that game in every respect last Sunday Night. Trent Edwards will start for the Bills, but look for the Chargers to win this by a TD or more. Buffalos run of 4-1 included wins over St. Louis, Oakland Seattle, all teams with big losing records and 1 win over JAX when they were struggling. That is one quality win. The chargers got ripped off in Denver or would be 4-2 and I see them gain momentum as the seasons builds. Look for Sproles to have a big day on special teams here too.

Play 1 Unit on he Bolts

2-Team 6- Point Teaser. Tease the NY Giants down to -4.5 and tease Houston down to -2.5......Play 1 Unit...thanks and good luck..Tony George



Sun, 10/19/08 - 1:00 PMTony George | NFL Total
dime bet416 CHI / 415 MIN Over 37.5 BetUS
Analysis:
OVER 38 Chicago / Minnesota

This game always plays over and with such hype around both defenses, the bottom line is that Minnesota has let people run an throw all over them all season. Atlanta moved the chains at will last week against Chicago. Peterson from Minny ran for over 350 yards on the Bears last year, and although it will be tough to match those numbers again, he will move the chains. Bears 17-4 ATS on the OVER the last 21 at home, and Minny has went over in every game they played on the road this year. Many see this as a smash mouth NFC battle, but I think both teams care capable of 20+ points or more each.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Wunderdog Comp
Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (Sunday 10/19 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati +10 (-120)


Both of these teams have been beaten up through the first six weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may be the healthier of the two, and they are certainly in better shape record-wise at 4-1 vs. Cincy's 0-6. The Steelers likely just want to get out of here with a win, knowing they have a big challenge at home next week against the Superbowl Champ Giants. Following that big game are games against Washington, Indianapolis and San Diego. So the 0-6 Bengals, without Carson Palmer, can't excite the Steelers here and I don't see them expending too much energy as a result. That makes this a dangerous game, because this is a division matchup and the Bengals have played to the level of the competition this season. They have played a very difficult schedule, but they aren't getting blown out by the big teams they face. They more than held their own against three powerhouses on the road, dropping a 9-point decision in Dallas (covering a 17 point spread), taking the Giants to OT in New York, and losing by just a TD at Baltimore. All of those games resulted in smaller final margins than this spread. The Bengals are home and hungry for their first win and would like nothing more than to see it come vs. the Steelers. It may surprise some that 0-6 teams have shown good value, as they are 5-3 ATS since 2000. I look for the Bengals to catch the Steelers napping here, as they did vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago. The Steelers are rested off a bye, but that hasn't helped them in the past as they are just 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen post-bye games. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following a win. Bengals plus the points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
triple-dime bet428 GBP / 427 IND Over 47.0 BetUS
Analysis: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was finally throwing the ball in practice on Thursday for the first time in several weeks, a sure sign he is getting back to 100 percent healthy after dealing with a shoulder injury. That will only help him against a depleted Colts defense that is missing top CB Kelvin Hayden and 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, who both remain out with knee injuries. The Ravens weren't able to take advantage of Indy last week at home, but Green Bay should be ready to explode and score at least four touchdowns for the first time since a 48-25 win at Detroit back on September 14th. The Colts are also starting to hit their stride offensively, putting up 31 points in back-to-back-wins against the Texans and Ravens. With Indy RB Joseph Addai sidelined the next few weeks with a partially torn hamstring, I expect QB Peyton Manning to air it out against a Green Bay secondary that is still hurting without CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby. The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 games on grass for the Packers and 7-1 in their last eight home games, so bet the OVER to cash here as well as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 TEN -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 406 KAN
Analysis:
Titans -7.5



Analysis: When we last witnessed the Chiefs they were being held to 127 yards in a 34-0 loss to Carolina, of which 50 of those yards came during a meaningless fourth quarter. It was the Chiefs' lowest yardage total in 22 years.

The Chiefs are horrible on offense. Quarterback Brodie Croyle is winless in seven career NFL starts. The Titans are holding foes to an NFL-low 11.2 points per game. They've held each of their last 10 opponents to less than 20 points during regulation, while averaging 23 points themselves during this span.

Kerry Collins is playing well for Tennessee. He's only been sacked once despite his lack of mobility. The Titans have good morale and a huge coaching edge with both teams coming off a bye.

Morale is terrible on Kansas City. The veterans feel betrayed by Herm Edwards already looking to next year. The fans are down on the Chiefs, too. Arrowhead Stadium has lost its luster. The Chiefs are 2-7-1 against the spread during their past 10 home contests.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is 13-5 against the spread in its past 18 contests.

The time to play this game is now as the line is just going to keep climbing.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

EZ Sunday NFL

5* Dallas -7

5* Houston -9.5

3* Indianapolis -1

3* Tampa Bay -10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers - Sunday October 19, 2008 1:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Carolina Panthers -3 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK

Tennessee over KANSAS CITY by 3
Yeah, they’re feelin’ real good about themselves these days, are the Titans.
A 5-0 SU and ATS start to the season, including the last four minus the
services of starting QB Vince Young, has them focused on winning the AFC
South Division and advancing on to the playoffs. Fresh off a week of rest
with a scrimmage against the lowly Chiefs this Sunday before next week’s
showdown with the Colts practically puts them in a rocking chair. WARNING
Label Attached: they had better not fall asleep in the Tee Pee this week.
Many a team has done just that as evidenced by Kansas City’s sterling 26-6
ATS mark as a home dog against a foe off a win. Toss in Marc’s Betcha Didn’t
Know WAKE UP CALL article from Issue 7 of this year’s PLAYBOOK newsletter
and you suddenly have a road favorite not feeling all that good about their
chances this week. From good to bad, just like that, the Titans will be hard
pressed to make it six straight at the expense of the Featherheads today.
Take the points, kemosabe.

BUFFALO over San Diego by 3
Here we go again, another West Coast club playing on the East Coast in a
10 AM body clock start. The scheduling fl ummox has left the Left Coasters
with a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark to date this season. To make matters worse,
the Bills also have the benefi t of a week of rest to prepare. The fl y in the
ointment, though, comes from the fact that Buffi e takes the fi eld off its fi rst
loss of the season. That’s because teams in this role in Game Six matchups
against non-division opponents are just 3-12-1 ATS in the following game
since 1980. Still, it’s hard to dismiss a winning home dog with much the
better stats (read: defense) in this biological schedule maker’s gift. Expect
the Bolts to blow another fuse.

Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI by 3
First it was Scott Linehan. Then came Lane Kiffi n. The question begs, will
Marvin Lewis make it an NFL coaches’ hat trick before season’s end? Stay
tuned. Since his hire in 2003 the Bengals are 42-45, including 7-18 in their last
25 games and 0-6 this season. The good news is that 0-6 home dogs playing
with revenge in Game Seven of the season are 5-0 ATS dating back to 1980.
Better news is that Cincinnati is a fully qualifi ed UGLY PIG, those being home
dogs that started the season 0-4 in their fi rst four games. Simply put, these
PIGS become plays anytime they dress up as home dogs in games off back-toback
losses from Game Five on out where they’ve gone 77-40-1 ATS in this role,
including 42-21-1 against an opponent off a win. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin
chips in with his 1-7 ATS road record in games off a win. Sporting a blustery
15-3 ATS mark at home against opponents off a road win, we’ve done what
we can to help save Marvin’s neck. The rest is up to him and his Black Cats.

4* BEST BET
Baltimore over MIAMI BY 10
The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s
gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the
Texans to march down the fi eld during the fi nal minute of play to turn
a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s fi nal possession. When last we
saw them at home they benefi ted from an aforementioned WAKE UP
CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites
for the fi rst time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed
miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fi ts nicely into a scenario
that fi nds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs
in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two
games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into
the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games
off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a
spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony.

Dallas over ST LOUIS by 7
And so it is, Tony Romo has been offi cially established as a ‘4-point
quarterback’. It’s confi rmed by the fact that the original send out on this
game was Dallas -11. When word got out about Romo’s pinkie being in
distress, the adjusted number became Dallas -7. The resolve is whether Brad
Johnson can carry the 4-point defi ciency and if the Rams can take the fi eld
without being drunk-from-victory. According to the NFL QB LEAGUE inside
the HANDICAPPERS LOUNGE at PLAYBOOK.COM, Johnson is 6-10 ATS in his
last sixteen tries as a road favorite, including 0-2 when laying more than 7
points. Then again NFL home dogs returning off a SU road win as a dog of
+10 or more points are just 3-17 SU and ATS in their last twenty tries. With
both teams in rotten roles it’s sometimes best to sit back and observe. We
will do just that. Pass.

CHICAGO over Minnesota by 6
If you thought Miami’s last second loss was tough, Chicago’s defeat at
Atlanta last week was just plain brutal. After taking the lead with 11 seconds
remaining in the game, the Bears kicked off – only to allow the Falcons to
complete a 26-yard pass with one-second left. It set up a 48-yard fi eld goal
by Jason Elam, sending the Bears back to .500-ville. Minnesota’s 2nd ugly win
in a row elevates the Vikings to the same plateau as the Bears, making this
division duke-out important for both squads. A quick check of our database
shows Game Seven .500 teams off a loss taking on a .500 foe off a win to
be 9-2 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 5-0 at home. With Minny a notso-
mighty 2-14 ATS as a road dog versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss,
look for Chicago to shake off last week’s heartbreaker as the Vikings offense
(scored more than 20 points only one time this season) remains in shackles.

New Orleans over CAROLINA by 3
If history is your cup of tea then this is your tea-n-crumpet game of the
week. It’s served with notice that the visiting team in this series is 13-0 ATS.
A second serving is poured over the Saints’ 11-1 ATS mark as a single-digit
division road dog this decade. Head coach Sean Payton orders a cup to go
with his 7-1 ATS career log as a dog against .500 or greater opponents. And
just to prove that tea can do that, Carolina’s 0-8 ATS record as an October
home favorite, and its 3-12-1 ATS record as a .500 or greater home favorite
against .500 or greater opponent, fi nishes setting the table. Sure, tea-trends
like these tend to get into more hot water than anything but when poured
over ice they’re refreshing as all get out.

NY GIANTS over San Francisco by 14
Not the best of roles for most teams, especially for defending Super Bowl
champs. New York returns to the Apple off Monday night’s ambush in
Cleveland to host the 49ers. These same two teams met on this fi eld last
year when the G-Men prevailed, 33-15, as 9.5-point favorites. The weight
of their Super Bowl rings and an impressive start to the 2008 season add to
the impost this year. While defending Super Bowl champs turn into chumps
when laying double-digits at home (38-53-5 ATS since 1980), the West Coast
traveler in an early post time will likely keep us neutral to this game.

3* BEST BET
Detroit over HOUSTON by 6
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the
end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to fi nish yet
continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…
all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other
side of the fi eld the Lions put together their most complete effort of
the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the
Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and fi nd themselves laying
more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS
mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the
fact that 1-4 teams off their fi rst win of the season are a wallet burning
0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only
one thing to do here… roar!

NY Jets over OAKLAND by 7
The Flyboys parlayed Carson Palmer’s bum elbow and New York’s throwback
jerseys into a win-and-cover over the toothless Bengals last week and are
now one game back of Buffalo for the top spot in the AFC East Division.
While they were busy accomplishing that feat the Raiders no-showed in
New Orleans as the Al Davis destruction train continues to derail. You
would think the most imposing number inside this game is Oakland’s
pathetic 2-15 SU and ATS mark as a home dog of 8 or less points. It’s not.
That is far surpassed by its wretched 2-97-1 ATS log in SU home losses since
1980. No, that is not a misprint… 2-97-1! Do you want any of that? We
didn’t think so.

WASHINGTON over Cleveland by 4
Two teams off disparate results can often times bring value to a game
provided, of course, the loser is hungry and the winner is fat. That’s not
necessarily the case here today, however, as the Hogs aren’t exactly suffering
from hunger pangs while the Browns suddenly have a new sense of life.
Cleveland’s sparkling 11-0 ATS mark off a non-division game versus an
opponent off the same sets the table. Washington’s 6-15 SU and 6-14-1 ATS
log in games off a SU loss as a favorite doesn’t exactly endear one to want to
lay points. Blowouts aside, should we get hungry when the late games arrive
we’ll likely order up a side of Brownies.

GREEN BAY over Indianapolis by 3
It’s amazing what winning a game that had loss written all over it can do for
a team. The Colts looked headed to a 1-3 start when the Texans gifted Indy
to victory with key turnovers leading to 21 points in the fi nal four minutes
of the game. Just like that, Peyton and company are in 2nd place in the
division with their sights fi rmly set on the Titans. They’ll need to get past the
Packers in Green Bay fi rst, however, and it won’t be easy. Despite a 6-1 ATS
series mark, the last two visits to Lambeau Field have been disappointments,
each resulting in defeat. With the Packers off back-to-back previous home
losses and having an open date up next (9-1 SU at home regular season
before rest), you can rest assured they will surely bring everything to the
party here today.

TAMPA BAY over Seattle by 6
A switch of quarterbacks affected both teams in different ways last week.
Tampa turned to Jeff Garcia and responded with aplomb in a 27-3 romp
over Carolina while Seattle settled on Charlie Frye in Matt Hasselbeck’s
stead and were beat up at home in a 27-17 loss to Green Bay. As a result
the line in this contest has been adjusted. Over-adjusted would be a better
phrase. Looking back at the last three games in this series, the Seahawks
are 3-0 SU and ATS, winning 20-6 at home last year as 6-point favorites and
23-7 and 10-6 here the last two visits – as 3-point dogs and 3-point favorites.
So where does this line come from, you ask? Our best guess is because of
Frye who, by the way, is 6-1 ATS in his NFL starting career when his team is
off back-to-back losses. No surprise to see Mike Holmgren improve on his
14-5 SU and ATS career mark in games off back-to-back losses against an
opponent he beat in the most recent meeting. Too many points to pass on here.

Monday, October 20th

5* BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND ove Denver by 14
Don’t think for a moment that last Sunday night’s performance is
indicative of the Patriots’ talents. There were in a buzz saw situation
with the Chargers off an embarrassing loss and seeking playoff
revenge. To further complicate matters they were landlocked on the
West Coast for consecutive games. The shoe is on the other foot in
this game – sort of. The Broncos take to the Monday night road off
back-to-back home games knowing they are 3-14 ATS on Mondays
against an opponent off a loss, including 0-5 when Denver is also off
a loss. The kicker, though, are the numbers Bill Belichick brings to
the table. For openers, he is 12-1-1 ATS in his head coaching career
when playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU favorite loss,
including 6-0 when his team is off a loss. In addition, the Pats are 19-6
ATS under Belichick when playing off one-loss exact, including 10-0
if they allowed more than 28 points in that loss. Now that just about
sizes things up, wouldn’t you say?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Steve Merril

NFL Steamroller Blowout!
Play COWBOYS (-).

NFL Game of the Week!
Play PACKERS (+).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Steve Budin
50 Dimer

Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-19-08

Al Demarco
15 Dimer
Chicago Bears