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Re: 10-16-08
The PRES
5* ALC SERIES BEST BET TOTAL
Tampa Bay at Boston Red Sox
Pitchers: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Scott Kazmir
Umpire: Alfonso Marquez (19-13, 1.72)
Conditions: Rain; 55 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out to left field at 10 mph
Like the Phillies on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are one win from the World Series. And while the pitching matchup somewhat resembles last night's righty-lefty battle that took place in Dodger Stadium, the pendulum swings in favor of the Red Sox. However, while everyone believes this game will be played close to the vest, low scoring per se, we don't believe that for a minute. Especially with a hitter-friendly umpire behind home plate.
Note: The Rays are hitting the cover off the ball, and the Red Sox finally get a left-hander they can pound.
Boston is 7-0 when facing elimination in the ALCS. The Red Sox came back from an identical deficit in last year's ALCS against Cleveland, and rallied from 3-0 down in 2004 to stun the New York Yankees in seven games. They went on to win the World Series both times. So calling the 3-1 lead by Tampa Bay a coup, could be premature.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning of Boston's 2-0 victory in Game 1 last Friday. He struck out nine, gave up four hits and walked four in seven-plus innings, but consider the contest a learning experience for the Rays' hitters. That was the first game, a situation that was rather overwhelming for young Tampa troupe.
Dice-K can't continue to strand runners at the rate he has this season, especially against a confident team with a small strike zone. Opponents were hitless in 14 at-bats with the bases loaded against Matsuzaka in the regular season, and he got Cliff Floyd to ground out in that situation in the first inning of Game 1. He wiggled out of another jam in the seventh as the Rays stranded seven total baserunners.
Since the poor performance against the Sox in Game 1, Tampa Bay's offense has dominated the series. The Rays have racked up 31 runs and 39 hits - including 10 homers - to win the last three games while getting contributions from up and down the lineup. Eleven Tampa Bay players have scored runs in the ALCS and six have homered, led by third baseman Evan Longoria, who's gone deep three times.
Scott Kazmir (0-0, 10.38), who starts for the Rays, has been average at best in the last handful of starts. His dominating slider has quit sliding and the lefty has all but abandoned the pitch. Kazmir is also the only Tampa Bay starter to pitch poorly in this series. He lasted 4 1-3 innings in Saturday's Game 2, yielding five runs, six hits - three homers - and three walks.
Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 22 starts versus Boston, but 0-2 with a 9.27 ERA in five outings this season.
The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 20-6 in Rays last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter, 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest; 4-0 in Kazmir's last 4 starts vs. American League East, 6-1 in Kazmir's last 7 starts and 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 League Championship home games.
Home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez is without question a hitter-friendly vest. His strike zone is QuesTec small and he doesn't give pitcher much room to wiggle around the knees. A serious detriment to the success of Boston starter Dice-K. The OVER is 5-2 in Marquez's last 7 games behind home plate and is 4-1-1 in Marquez's last 6 games behind home plate vs. Boston this year.
5 UNIT Play on the OVER
The PRES
5* ALC SERIES BEST BET TOTAL
Tampa Bay at Boston Red Sox
Pitchers: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Scott Kazmir
Umpire: Alfonso Marquez (19-13, 1.72)
Conditions: Rain; 55 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing out to left field at 10 mph
Like the Phillies on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are one win from the World Series. And while the pitching matchup somewhat resembles last night's righty-lefty battle that took place in Dodger Stadium, the pendulum swings in favor of the Red Sox. However, while everyone believes this game will be played close to the vest, low scoring per se, we don't believe that for a minute. Especially with a hitter-friendly umpire behind home plate.
Note: The Rays are hitting the cover off the ball, and the Red Sox finally get a left-hander they can pound.
Boston is 7-0 when facing elimination in the ALCS. The Red Sox came back from an identical deficit in last year's ALCS against Cleveland, and rallied from 3-0 down in 2004 to stun the New York Yankees in seven games. They went on to win the World Series both times. So calling the 3-1 lead by Tampa Bay a coup, could be premature.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning of Boston's 2-0 victory in Game 1 last Friday. He struck out nine, gave up four hits and walked four in seven-plus innings, but consider the contest a learning experience for the Rays' hitters. That was the first game, a situation that was rather overwhelming for young Tampa troupe.
Dice-K can't continue to strand runners at the rate he has this season, especially against a confident team with a small strike zone. Opponents were hitless in 14 at-bats with the bases loaded against Matsuzaka in the regular season, and he got Cliff Floyd to ground out in that situation in the first inning of Game 1. He wiggled out of another jam in the seventh as the Rays stranded seven total baserunners.
Since the poor performance against the Sox in Game 1, Tampa Bay's offense has dominated the series. The Rays have racked up 31 runs and 39 hits - including 10 homers - to win the last three games while getting contributions from up and down the lineup. Eleven Tampa Bay players have scored runs in the ALCS and six have homered, led by third baseman Evan Longoria, who's gone deep three times.
Scott Kazmir (0-0, 10.38), who starts for the Rays, has been average at best in the last handful of starts. His dominating slider has quit sliding and the lefty has all but abandoned the pitch. Kazmir is also the only Tampa Bay starter to pitch poorly in this series. He lasted 4 1-3 innings in Saturday's Game 2, yielding five runs, six hits - three homers - and three walks.
Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 22 starts versus Boston, but 0-2 with a 9.27 ERA in five outings this season.
The OVER is 6-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 20-6 in Rays last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter, 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest; 4-0 in Kazmir's last 4 starts vs. American League East, 6-1 in Kazmir's last 7 starts and 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
The OVER is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 League Championship home games.
Home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez is without question a hitter-friendly vest. His strike zone is QuesTec small and he doesn't give pitcher much room to wiggle around the knees. A serious detriment to the success of Boston starter Dice-K. The OVER is 5-2 in Marquez's last 7 games behind home plate and is 4-1-1 in Marquez's last 6 games behind home plate vs. Boston this year.
5 UNIT Play on the OVER
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