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Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins have dominated the Padres on the West Coast going 6-1 their last seven trips to San Diego. The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump knowing he is 8-2 on the highway this season with an ERA of 3.92 over that span. Ricky Nolasco is 11-4 in road games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent the last 3 seasons, 12-5 in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last 2 seasons, 13-2 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game the last 3 seasons, 9-1 in road games against NL West opponents the last 3 seasons and 8-0 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons. The Padres will send Kevin Correia to the hill with his 4-4 home record and ERA of 4.52 on the season. We will back the visitor here as a small underdog as the Marlins ride Nolasco to another victory on the West Coast on Saturday.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Florida Marlins 4 San Diego Padres 3
It has been a rough few starts for Kansas City’s Zack Greinke as he makes his fourth straight start at home against the Orioles on Saturday night. His last time out, he gave up eight runs and eight hits in four innings of work against the Twins. Overall, he's 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts giving up 15 runs and 18 hits in his last 18 innings pitched. The righty took a no-decision against the Orioles back in May as Nick Markakis (4-13), Julio Lugo (5-12), Brian Roberts (5-10), Adam Jones (3-8), and Luke Scott (2-4) all hit Greinke well. Greinke is backed by a Kansas City bullpen that has an ERA close to 5.00 at home. Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen continues to make starts despite being pretty bad this season. The righty is 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA in 16 starts. He's only averaging 5.3 innings per outing meaning a Baltimore bullpen that is already taxed should be involved tonight. The righty has given up 17 runs and 28 hits in his last 16.3 innings pitched. Bergesen lost to the Royals in Baltimore back in May after giving up four runs and 10 hits in 6.7 innings of work. Yuniesky Betancourt (3-9), Billy Butler (3-8), Jose Guillen (1-3), Chris Getz (1-3), and Alex Gordon (1-1) have good numbers against the Orioles starter. The Royals have gone Over the total in six straight games mostly due to bad pitching. The Orioles bullpen has an ERA near 4.40 on the road which has helped them go Over the total in five of their last six games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Orioles and Royals tonight.
Dodgers come in losers of three in a row while the Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games, but the real reason I am taking the Giants here is that Barry Zito deserved a lot better than he got in his last start, as he made just two mistakes the whole night, and it cost him three runs, and after that the usually reliable Giant bullpen could not hold down the fort enough for the offense to come all the way back. Things even out in a baseball season, and see Barry get the better end of things here tonite.
After a rough start to the season – he was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA as of June 18, Rodriquez has turned his season around in a big way, posting a 5-1 record and a 2.31 ERA in his last six trips to the mound. And if you eliminate a five-run, six-inning performance against the Cubs at Wrigley Field – he won that game 11-5 after Houston staked him to an 8-0 run lead in the third inning, giving Rodriguez the green light to serve up fastball after fastball – he surrendered just five runs in his other five starts covering 33 innings (1.36 ERA).
Rodriguez is coming off a dominating 4-0 home victory over the Reds – and when I say dominating, I mean Cincinnati managed just one run and two walks while striking out seven times in seven innings. In fact, the southpaw’s strikeout-to-walk ratio during his 5-1 run is 34-9!
Rodriguez is just 6-6 with a 4.48 ERA in his career against Milwaukee (16 games, 15 starts), but those numbers are pretty misleading. For one thing, he schooled the Brew Crew in Wisconsin back on June 30, rolling to a 5-1 win after yielding just a run and seven hits in seven innings. For another thing, he’s been lights out against the Brewers in Houston the last few years, giving up just two runs in 19 innings in three starts.
As much as I trust Houston’s starting pitcher in this contest, I do not trust Milwaukee’s Dave Bush. He’s been walking a tightrope all season. As a matter of fact, he’s lucky that he’s ONLY just 5-8 with a 4.27 ERA on the season, as he’s got a 1.51 WHIP and his batting average-against is .285 (meaning he’s not missing many bats).
Finally, the Astros are swinging the better sticks, batting .275 over its previous 10 games (including .288 against right-handed pitchers), while the Brewers are hitting just .246 over a 10-game stretch (.222 vs. lefties). Also, Milwaukee had dropped three straight and is just 2-7 in its last nine games against left-handed starters, while Houston has won three in row and four of five.
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