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3* graded play on the Yankees as they take on the Mets set to start at 1:05. Loser of 3 straight now and with Boston just 1 behind them and the Rays will serve up some focus for this game today. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Yankees will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-19 making 37.5 units since 2004. Play against road dogs with a money line of +150 or more with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and is a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season. Yankees are an amazing 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Yanks.
Free Play for June 19, 2010
1 Unit on Giants/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
Bottom Line: Cain has been dealing. He has an ERA of 1.90 on the road this season, and over his last 3 starts his ERA is just 0.75. The Giants have been Under this number in each of his last 7 starts. Litsch was roughed up badly in flighty Coors Field in his first start of the season, but I expect him to be much better at home tonight when you consider that the Under is 6-0 in the Blue Jays' last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. It is also worth noting that the Under is 13-3 in the Giants' last 16 interleague road games. We cashed in our free play on the Under in this matchup yesterday and we'll stick with it today.
I am 29-10-1 on my last 40 free selections and 9-0 on my last paid plays after cashing on the Angels Friday as a 50-dime paid selection and winning with the Cardinals on the run line as my free pick.
My free selection today is the White Sox and Jake Peavy against the Nationals and J.D. Martin. The price is right considering how well Chicago is playing, how poorly Washington is playing and the pitching matchup.
The White Sox have won eight of their last nine games. They also are 24-8 in their last 31 interleague games.
The Nationals have dropped four in a row and six of their last seven. They have scored 11 runs in their last four games, while batting .199 during this time span.
Now the Nationals face a rejuvenated Jake Peavy, who has had two straight excellent outings. Peavy, though, only is a short favorite because he was scratched from this scheduled Thursday start due to a tired right shoulder.
Tests showed no structural damage. The extra day should help Peavy, a power pitcher. The White Sox are fine with him making this start and so am I.
After facing Stephen Strasburg last night, the White Sox draw J.D. Martin. Talk about night and day. Martin isn't long for the big leagues. This is just his fourth start since being called up from the minors. The Indians got to him for seven runs and nine hits in Martin's last outing.
3? WHITE SOX (LIST BOTH PITCHERS)
That’s four straight free-play winners as the Rangers (7?) took down the Astros on Friday. In addition to cashing in my last four freebies, I’m now on a 90-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, we’ll go right back to Houston and play the red-hot Rangers once again, this time on the run line (-1½ runs)
You may not be familiar with the name Colby Lewis, but you will be soon enough. Lewis is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 13 starts this season, and over his last five outings he’s given up just 10 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of those five games.
The right-hander is coming off an outstanding performance at Milwaukee on Sunday, as he outdueled Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo, allowing just two runs on three hits (two of them HRs) while striking out 10 in eight innings. It was the fourth time Lewis has recorded a double-digit strikeout effort, and he now has 81 Ks vs. just 33 walks in 84 2/3 innings.
Now Lewis runs up against a punchless Astros offense that hits just .234 against right-handed pitching this season and averages 6.1 strikeouts per game. Well, that offense better come to life today or Houston doesn’t stand a chance, because it’s highly unlikely that Brian Moehler is going to outpitch Lewis.
Moehler is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in 16 appearances (four starts) in 2010, and he’s given up 66 baserunners in 37 innings (opponents are reaching base at a .409 clip against the right-hander). And get a load of Moehler’s numbers in his last six starts going back to last September: 31 runs allowed in 25 1/3 innings (11.01 ERA). On top of that, in his last four starts against Texas, he’s yielded 21 runs in 19 2/3 innings (the Rangers won three of those four games, including a 6-3 victory in Houston last year).
Obviously, the Rangers – who are riding a six-game winning streak and are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with seven wins by more than a run – are a much better ballclub than the Astros. And they’ve owned this rivalry, winning six of the last seven meetings overall and five of the last six in H-Town. Behind Lewis, they’ll cruise to another easy victory tonight!
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