6-7-10

**spook** · 06-07-2010, 05:46 PM

Re: 6-7-10

ness insider
Reds

**spook** · 06-07-2010, 06:28 PM

Re: 6-7-10

BEN BURNS

6* Phillies -182

The Padres won yesterday's game. However, the Phillies have still dominated them in recent seasons and I expect them to have a significant advantage for this evening's finale.

Hamels lasted only 2/3 innings in his last start and wasn't very effective over that span. However, the reason for the short outing was a rain delay, not because he got the hook. Prior to that, he'd been very sharp. Indeed, he entered that game having gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his previous three starts. He's allowed four earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts this season, including seven straight.

While Hamels has had some issues on the road, he's been very solid at home. In five starts here, he's gone 3-1 (Phillies are 4-1) with a stellar 2.94 ERA. The Phillies are a perfect 3-0 his last three starts here. His only loss here was of the "hard luck" variety, as he allowed just two runs through eight complete innings but received no run support, taking a 2-0 loss. I don't expect lack of run support to be an issue here though. For starters, their offense has finally "woken up" the past couple of games. Additionally, they'll be facing a starting pitcher that is currently in really bad form.

Leblanc got off to a great start and still has pretty solid stats on the season. However, those numbers don't reveal how awful he's been lately. Over his last four starts, he's gone 0-4 with an ugly 6.43 ERA. Over his last three starts, he's gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. He's allowed 24 hits in his last 21 innings and hasn't won since April. He's also allowed five home runs in his last in his last three starts. That was after he didn't give up a single home run in his first six starts.

Like Hamels, Leblanc has been tough at home but has had trouble on the road. In three starts away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, he's got a dismal 6.59 ERA.

Hamels has made seven starts against the Padres and has allowed three earned runs or less in six of them. In those seven starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA against them. The Phillies are 3-1 in his four home starts vs. San Diego, most recently a 9-4 victory last July.

The Padres are a money-burning 56-71 (-11.7) against southpaw starters the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Phillies are 72-49 (+8.7) when facing a southpaw starter. Even with yesterday's extra inning loss, the Phillies are also still 15-7 the last 22 times that they hosted the Padres, including 7-1 the last eight. With Hamels getting the better of Leblanc, I expect them to bounce back and continue that series dominance here.

**spook** · 06-07-2010, 09:25 PM

Re: 6-7-10

BIG AL's MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH (3-1 Sun)!
Our Selection: Athletics Opponent: Angels Line: -124
Analysis: At 10:05 pm, our AL West Game of the Month is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels. You can't tell from his overall numbers, but righthander Ben Sheets has been one of Oakland's most effective starters over the past month or so. Despite a 2010 record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.00, Sheets has actually been very good since his start on May 8 against the Rays, and in his last three starts, the veteran and former Brewer is sporting a 3.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP and he's only allowed four total walks in those three starts covering 19 innings, a sign that Sheets is finally getting his legs back underneath him after missing all of 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. He's 0-1 in those three starts, but the wins will come, especially at home where the A's have been so tough, going 19-11 this season after their win on Sunday. Those 19 home wins are tied for second-best in the American League and is more than Boston, Detroit, or Minnesota. It's been a disappointing season for Angels' lefthander Scott Kazmir, who is just 4-5 with a 5.86 ERA after his first 10 starts. Sheets has been especially tough at home, where he's gone 2-1 with an exceptional ERA of 2.50. Take the A's.

6-7-10

6-7-10

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