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Stan Sharp | MLB Money Line Fri, 05/14/10 - 10:15 PM Æ’Å
triple-dime bet 966 SFG (-145) Bodog vs 965 HOU Analysis: Stan is Betting SAN FRANCISCO today. Stan notes that Houston is coming off of roa‚d sweep of a division rival while San Francisco is coming off getting swept at home against a division rival. Expect a reversal of fortunes today as Houston is 0-5 in Felipe Paulino's starts.
TAKE SAN FRANCISCO as STAN'S TRIPLE DIME MLB BIG BET.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Rich Harden heads to the mound for the Rangers; he got a no decision last time out against the Royals; he's 2-1 on the year and is averaging just over five innings a start; he's walked 25 batters leading to his WHIP of 1.51.
He's 0-3 with a 4.54 ERA lifetime vs. the Jays.
In the other dugout: Brett Cecil gets the nod for Toronto; Cecil allowed three runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings Saturday and took the defeat at the hands of the White Sox.
He had pitched superbly though before coming into that contest; he's 2-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA on the year.
Bottom line: Harden has never beaten the Jays and is 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA in two outings North of the border.
Toronto will be hungry for a victory after losing two three at Boston; *6* ABSOLUTE ANNIHILATION on the BLUE JAYS!
I love backing HOT teams in MLB, who are playing with extreme confidence & at HOME--and we have just that with the REDS tonight--They have won 5 straight games coming into tonight--they are hitting a roboust .303 & slugging .520 over their L/5 ballgames--they are 5-0 L/5 games vs left-handed starters----they are also 10-1 this season vs left-handed starters at HOME--AND we are getting them as a UNDERDOG--and we all know I love to back what I see as LIVE HOME DOGS--and we have just that with the RED HOT REDS tonight. Reds starter, Aaron Harang has pitched very well recently--Let's take a look at his L/3 starts: 2-1, 3.38 ERA, 18 2/3 IP, 22 hits, 2 BB, 21 K's--ROCK solid numbers--as he has turned around his poor start to this season--& I look for another solid start from him tonight--vs this Cardinals club who are struggling at the plate their L/5 games--hittting just .241 & slugging just .312 their L/5 games coming into tonight. SO we have not only a RED HOT club at the plate playing at HOME tonight--in a situation (vs lefty starters) that they have flat out exceled in--and a hot starting pitcher who has DEFINITELY had his COMMAND--and at a UNDERDOG price--Absolutely see GREAT VALUE with the REDS tonight--and its our (2*) DOUBLE STAR PLAY for FRIDAY NIGHT. Take the Reds.
The Royals dumped their manager yesterday believing he was the reason they’re off to a 12-23 start. I guess the win yesterday couldn’t say his job. Yost gets the job and it won’t be a good start for him tonight as his Royals face Buehrle who is 20-8 with a 3.55 ERA in his career against KC. The White Sox lefty looked good in his last start going eight innings and allowing only three earned runs. KC marches out Meche and the only place he should be pitching based on his performances so far this season is in AAA. The Royals have yet to win in any of his six starts and it’s because he can’t get anybody out posting an 8.24 ERA. It’s even worse here at home at 11.37. The White Sox are $130 tonight and that’s just the right price to back Buehrle who has a 15-4 team start record when pitching as a favorite of $150 or less over the past two seasons. It’s all Chicago tonight. Play on Chicago White Sox.
The axe finally fell on Royals skipper Trey Hillman yesterday and frankly it was the worst kept secret in years around Kansas City. Hard to tell what kind of manager he could have been because lets face it, the man never had the opportunity to manage a true major league club. As long as David Glass of Wal Mart fame, fortune and background owns this team they will never be a real player in the big picture of major league baseball. I typically pause big time before playing against a team right off a managerial change because for whatever reason there is often a bump in the immediate aftermath. However, with that being said I have a hard time passing up the value here with Mark Buehrle taking the ball for Chicago. The Royals are going with Gil Meche, 0-4, 8.24. Meche had a quality start last time out in Texas but sorry, not enough to convince me he's turned the corner. Fact is the guy has struggled with location all year long and has been over worked like a rented mule the last few years. On the flip side Buehrle is 20-9 with a solid 3.57 era in 41 starts against Kansas City. In my view a very decent price to pay here for Chicago guys.
Philadelphia is 29-18 last 3 years as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Milwaukee is 4-11 at home this year. Philadelphia is scoring 5.4 runs per game overall this year and 5.4 runs per game on the road this season. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.80 ERA overall this year and a 7.00 ERA at home this season. Moyer is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Phillies are 37-16 in their last 53 games following an off day. Phillies are 4-0 in Moyers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 7-1 in Moyers last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Phillies are 6-1 in Moyers last 7 Friday starts. Phillies are 5-1 in Moyers last 6 starts as a road underdog. Phillies are 7-2 in Moyers last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Phillies are 26-9 in Moyers last 35 starts during game 1 of a series. Brewers are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Brewers are 12-25 in their last 37 during game 1 of a series. Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 games following an off day. Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 Friday games. Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Brewers are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League East. Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. We'll play Philadelphia for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.
Braden is coming off of a no-hitter, so obviously he can only go on the decline from here as he already hit his high, but the Angels are atrociously terrible at generating runs this year. Look for Oakland to squeeze out a win behind another Braden gem. Take the A's.
The Orioles finally got a little taste of winning - on a two game run. And with winning momentum comes confidence. A few of the Orioles are starting to hit the ball and should get the best of Justin Masterson, who sports a bloated 5.23 ERA and is winless this season. Moreover, the Indians are a mere 3-13 in Masterson's last 16 starts. The Orioles, however, have won 5 of their last 6 at Camden Yards and are 8-1 at home vs a team with a losing record. We'll look for former Indian - Jeremy Guthrie to notch his second straight win. Guthrie is 4-1 in his last 5 vs the American League Central.
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