10-11-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

IndianCowboy



Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Ball State Cardinals @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Saturday October 11, 2008 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +15.5 (-110)



Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Western Michigan Broncos @ Buffalo Bulls - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Western Michigan Broncos +1.5 (-110)




Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Boise State Broncos @ So Mississippi - Saturday October 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: So Mississippi +11 (-110)



Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Tennessee Volunteers +12 (-110)



Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Temple Owls @ Central Michigan Chippewas - Saturday October 11, 2008 4:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Temple Owls +7.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

200 Unit College Football Game of the Year

Kelso Sturgeon Football

Saturday, October 11

Home Team In CAPS

All Starting Times Eastern

* * *







College Football Game Of The Year



200 Units

Air Force (-10 ½) over SAN DIEGO STATE

Prediction: Air Force by 35

Starting Time: 9:30

TV: MTN

Weather in San Diego: Clear with game-time temperature of 60 degrees, relative humidity of 54% and wind out of the west at 15 PMPH.

Comments: First of all, when I find a game that can be released at the 200-unit level, the team I am using must have the ability to absolutely dominate the other team on both sides of the ball. Air Force (3-2) is in that position against a poorly coached San Diego State (1-4) team that has been decimated by injuries, losing 15 players for the entire season, seven of them starters. Things went from bad to worst this week when it was announced San Diego State’s starting quarterback Ryan Lindley had not recovered from a shoulder injury incurred at TCU last week and would miss this game.His replacement is adequate but adequate does not get it done against Air Force,

The team I am using also has to be so dominating that it can play its worse game of the season and still win and cover. Air Force fills that bill too.

These two things are just the beginning of the process, which has 47 different points of analysis. A team must grade out on top in at least 40 of those categories to even be considered. This is no shot in the dark.

As I have pointed previously I completed a five-year study in February that really opened my eyes to why college and National Football League teams win or lose. There was a silver bullet that came out of the NFL study (passing and pass defense) but the college game came out of the process in a bit more complicated fashion.

Results of the college study said that version of the game rested on one thing—talent and lots of it—and that the talent factor could be revealed with the combined facts contained in five different elements--quarterback vs. quarterback, running game vs. running game, did a team have a game-breaker, the experience of the offensive line and the quality of each team’s defense.

Here is the grade card for Air Force and San Diego State this week.



GRADE CARD FOR 200-UNIT GAME OF YEAR




( Each Team Is Rated On A Scale Of From 0 to 10, with 10 Being The Best Figure)



ANALYSIS CATEGORY AIR FORCE SAN DIEGO STATE



Quarterback 7.0 3.0

Running Game 10.0 0.0

Game Breaker None None

Offensive Line 7.0 3.0

Quality Of Defense 8.0 2.0



In addition to this it has not been lost on me San Diego State has beaten only Idaho, a 1-5 team that is simply non-competitive and which gives up 47.3 points and 502.8 yards per game The Aztecs even lost to I-AA Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, 29-27.

It also is comforting to know Air Force always comes to play and brings the heat from the get-go. It also is a major plus Air Force, which opened the season 3-0, comes into this off back-to-back losses—to unbeaten Utah, 30-23, and to Navy last week, 33-27.

This game has blow-out written all over it and I do look for at least a 35-point win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Ethan Law
2% New Mexico St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Al DeMarco

Saturday's Pick
15 Dime - Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Kelso

Big 10 GOY.....Penn St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Erin Rynning


20* Georgia (sec goy)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers goofed on one of Saturday's games, a spot ripe for pickin' if you like to play underdogs. Find out all the details on this overvalued favorite, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when this live dog covers! 10/9/2008

4* Nebraska (171) at Texas Tech: Nebraska still has a work in progress defense, but this offense is very strong. And as good as Texas Tech is, they're not 20 points better than the Huskers. Nebraska has a strong offense with mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (9 TDs, 5 picks) and RB Marlon Lucky, averaging 33.4 points. Nebraska ranks No. 20 nationally in passing offense (270.4 yards per game) and No. 30 in scoring offense (33.4 points per game). Nebraska put up 333 total yards and 30 points in a 35-30 loss to Virginia Tech....and that was a season low in yards. QB Ganz said the Huskers need to be able to put up yards and points through the air. "I think we do need to run the ball, but we're capable of putting up big yards in the passing game," Ganz said. "We should be able to put up big numbers and kind of use the short passing game as the controlled running game. I know we need to be able to run the ball and I want to run the ball, but if we can't the passing game needs to pick it up." This game is even on too many levels and this line is out of whack. I'm looking at a game decided by single digits either way. Play Nebraska!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

King Creole | CFB Side
triple-dime bet144 Georgia -12.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 143 Tennessee
Analysis: 3:30pm ET / Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs / #144
3*** BEST BET on: GEORGIA BULLDOGS minus the points

This game has EVERYTHING that we look for in a 4* or 5* Best Bet. We have an ANGRY yet focused home team... playing with REST... in a DOUBLE-Revenge situation... that looks to get back into the TOP 5 in the Country. Two weeks ago, Georgia's hopes for an unbeaten National Championship went up in smoke as they lost OUTRIGHT at home to Alabama (41-30) as favorite of -6.5 points. That was after starting off the season by reeling off 4 straight wins. They need a whipping boy on Saturday, and there's a tailor-made one in Tennessee... who's on a down year thus far. With the added incentive of double REVENGE, we have no problems laying the double-digit points on Saturday.

In the last 2 years, ALL Conference home favorites that are playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT loss as a fav of -6 > points are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS (GEORGIA). Larger favs of -7 or more are 14-3 ATS in the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS when playing with rest.

Now let's look at teams that just lost their first game of the year after reeling off multiple wins in a row.
11-0 ATS in the last 20 years: ALL Conference favs of -3 > points in Game Six or greater off their FIRST loss of the year... if that loss was by 10 or more points at HOME (GEORGIA).... and they are taking on an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee).

The Volunteers BARELY escaped with a win last week in which they should have DESTROYED Northern Illinois (won 13-9 as home favs of -16.5 points).
In the last 10 years, ALL conference road underdogs of < 14 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS off a SU non-conference home win of 4 < points in which they were a B-I-G fav of -14 or more points (Tennessee).

Tennessee's offense is definitely in the doldrums lately. Untested sophomore QB Jonathan Crompton has been stinking up the joint with a TD/INT ratio of only 2-4 on the year. He had only 1 TD last week against the Huskies... and was backed up by ONLY 69 rushing yards by his offense. The Volunteers come in with three straight games in which they have scored only 13 or less points.
SEC road dogs of +28 or less points are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS after scoring 13 or less points in EACH of their last 3 games (Tennessee).

An angry BUT focused home favorite playing with rest AND revenge is always a great 'play ON' situation.
6-1 ATS in the last 3 years for all Conference home favs of greater than 3 points playing with REST and REVENGE.
9-2 ATS since 2004 for ALL Conference home favs of -12 > points playing with REST off a SU loss in Game Six or greater, Bring in an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee), and the numbers improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Stephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet113 Iowa -5.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 114 Indiana
Analysis:
Iowa -5.5

Analysis: The Hawkeyes are superior in the trenches. I expect them to control both lines of scrimmage and get a spread cover.

Iowa has lost three straight games, falling to Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Michigan State by a combined nine points. The Hawkeyes out-gained each of those three teams, while averaging four more first downs than each foe.

Bad luck and turnovers have dogged the Hawkeyes. Iowa's defense can handle Indiana's spread offense. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13 points per game.

The Hawkeyes will pound away with good-looking running back Shonn Greene, who is averaging 158 yards rushing in his last two games.

The Hoosiers are 11-23-1 against the spread the past 35 times they've been an underdog.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

teddy covers 20* arkansas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

tim trushel 20* buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Ats Lock Club.....Underdog Lock Of The Year......

Stanford+7.......20 unit play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Oddsmakers goofed on one of Saturday's games, a spot ripe for pickin' if you like to play underdogs. Find out all the details on this overvalued favorite, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when this live dog covers! 10/9/2008

4* Nebraska (171) at Texas Tech: Nebraska still has a work in progress defense, but this offense is very strong. And as good as Texas Tech is, they're not 20 points better than the Huskers. Nebraska has a strong offense with mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (9 TDs, 5 picks) and RB Marlon Lucky, averaging 33.4 points. Nebraska ranks No. 20 nationally in passing offense (270.4 yards per game) and No. 30 in scoring offense (33.4 points per game). Nebraska put up 333 total yards and 30 points in a 35-30 loss to Virginia Tech....and that was a season low in yards. QB Ganz said the Huskers need to be able to put up yards and points through the air. "I think we do need to run the ball, but we're capable of putting up big yards in the passing game," Ganz said. "We should be able to put up big numbers and kind of use the short passing game as the controlled running game. I know we need to be able to run the ball and I want to run the ball, but if we can't the passing game needs to pick it up." This game is even on too many levels and this line is out of whack. I'm looking at a game decided by single digits either way. Play Nebraska!



Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on a 33-20 (62% run) run on all plays, which includes his Sunday Night GOY Winner on the Steelers/Jaguars over! Saturday he steps out with his top play, his College Football TV Game of the Year! Get all the details on this one-sided rout, with full analysis, and pay ONLY when it covers! 10/9/2008

5* Texas/Oklahoma: Texas has new skill position players around QB Colt McCoy this season, and they also haven't been tested. In last year's meeting, Oklahoma rolled up 411 yards, and had the edge in rushing yards 170-61. McCoy has been turnover prone in his career and with a better offense coughed it up twice in last year's meeting, while Oklahoma had no TOs. Even in last week's rout of Colorado, McCoy threw 2 picks. This Oklahoma offense is even better than a year ago, with sophomore QB Sam Bradford (18 TDs, 3 picks), one that averages 50 points, 180 yards rushing and 320 passing. The ground game is loaded with sophomore RB DeMarco Murray and junior RB Chris Brown. The Sooners are also healthy, getting back injured defensive linemen Demarcus Granger and Frank Alexander back for this game. Oklahoma is 25-4 SU, 18-10-1 its last 29 as chalk. For the Red River Shootout, the Sooners have won the last three games when both teams were ranked in the top 5, most recently a 12-0 victory in 2004. They will win by double digits here. Play Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Lenny Stevens

20 Big 12 GOY MIZZ
10 Baylor
10 So. Car
10 NWestern

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-11-08

Dominic Brando:

Saturday October 18th NCAA College Football Executive Report:

NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #125 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS -2/-115 over Kentucky
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #142 MISSOURI TIGERS -13/-125 over Oklahoma State Cowboys
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #144 GEORGIA BULLDOGS -12/-115 over Tennessee Volunteers
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #152 NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS -7/-130 over Notre Dame Irish
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #172 TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -20/-115 over Nebraska
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #176 WISCONSIN BADGERS +7/-120 over Penn State Nittany Lions
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #128 BUFFALO BULLS PICK/-120 over Western Michigan Broncos


Sunday October 19th NFL Week Six Executive Report:

Standard Against the Spread Releases:
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115 over Denver Broncos
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120 over Green Bay Packers

NFL Week Six Money Line Releases:
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +275 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +185 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165 over Denver Broncos
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +190 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125 over Green Bay Packers

Next DBIC Executive Report Due Saturday October 11th Anytime Before 2:45 PM Eastern!

Dominic Brando Sports