12-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Brandon Lang-


The Gift that just keeps giving. 3 50 dimers.

NOTE: This extention will stay on-line until the Holiday Bowl at 8pm eastern.


50 DIME - BOWLING GREEN-IDAHO OVER - I can't see this game not going over the posted total.

Of all the bowl games we have this year, this game has the 2nd highest posted total on the board at it's current number of 68.

Let's start with SMU-Nevada which closed at 71, and was never even close with a 45-10 final while just the other night A&M/Georgia was posted at 66 and they sniffed it at 44-20.

However, this game between these two is a whole different ball game entirely.

The strength of both offenses plays right into the weakness of both defenses and normally when you get something like that it is flat out a shootout.

Bowling Green will air it out with Tyler Sheehan to Freddie Barnes against the 113th pass defense in the entire country that hasn't had an INT since October.

Idaho will run the ball against the 103rd rush defense in the entire country, and they will get their big plays on the ground.

In a near pick'em game, Vegas is telling you this game will go right down to the wire and it wouldn't suprise me if we had OT.

Their last game of the year Idaho played Utah State and they combined 101 points in a 52-49 Idaho win over a Utah State who threw for close to 400 yards with the 35th best passing attack.

Bowling Green has the 8th best with the best receiver in the country playing the last game of his collegiate career 5 catches short of the NCAA record for catches in a season.

The Falcons scored over 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this year while Idaho surpassed that mark in 7 of their 12.

I will come strong with the Over (68 points as I type this), and call for the most entertaining bowl game so far with big plays, a ton of points and who has the ball last wins, maybe in OT.



50 DIME - ARIZONA WILDCATS - I will let Nebraska get all the hype they want coming off the near miss of beating Texas but the fact still remains, they have no offense.

And the bottom line for me in this game is the fact if you are going to cover a number like this you have got to be able to put some points on the board and Nebraska has trouble doing that.

This line has moved to the Cornhuskers being the favorite and getting value with what I feel is the better team and believe it or not is the better overall defense, I will gladly take the points.

Nebraska was 1 second away from a BCS bowl berth, and that has got to still weigh heavily on their mind here regardless of what they portray to the press.

This game will come down who is able to make more plays offensively when they are their to make and Arizona has that edge, especially with Nebraska starting true freshman Green.

Green will be asked to manage the game, take no chances, do not turn the ball over and let's keep the game close and win it with my defense or special teams in the 4th quarter.

That may sound great and look good on paper but asking a true freshman to do that against a well scouted defense who will be perfectly game planed will play right into the hands of Arizona.

Wouldn't suprise me if before games end Pelini benches the true freshman and looks for Lee to rally them.

I will ride the Arizona Wildcats in this game who's defense will match up really well with anything Nebraska tries to do offensively and call for this small dog to win the game outright.


50 DIME - NEBRASKA-ARIZONA UNDER - This total is posted at 40 1/2 for a reason.

It's because of the Nebraska defense. Plain and simple.

They are ranked 8th nationally in overall defense, and after their performance against Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game they deserve all the hype they get.

However, don't lose sight of Arizona and their defense which matched up against the poor excuse of a Nebraska offense, will look very good as well.

This game will be much like an NFL game in it's approach by the two head coaches which will consist of playing the field position game and look for my defense to make a play.

Games stay Under the total because teams settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they get in the red zone, and I see that being the case here as well.

My dollar is going to be on the Under here as defense will be the name of the game here and I will force these offenses to find a way to get over this number.

Personally, I just don't see it.

FREE SELECTION - BOWLING GREEN FALCONS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Ben Burns Wed 12/30/09

Hoops - 9* New Orleans -1
Football - 10* Arizona + 2.5
Ice - 6* San Jose -140

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Wayne Root

4* Idaho (-1) over Bowling Green
4* Arizona (+3) over Nebraska

4* Northwestern (+7) over Illinois (cbb)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

Dr. Bob sports

**Nebraska (-1) 21 Arizona 13 Nebraska is the best defensive team in the nation and they should be able to win this game on the strength of that unit. The Cornhuskers defense played pretty well the first couple of games, but that unit really became a dominant one with LB Phillip Dillard starting playing in week 3. Dillard wasn't even starting until later in the year, but he led the team in tackles per game and had 11 tackles for loss. With Dillard contributing along with the nation's top defensive player Ndamukong Suh (23 tackles for loss and 11 passes defended as a defensive tackle!), Jared Crick (9.5 sacks and 15 total TFL), and Barry Turner (16 TFL) the Huskers simply dominated. In those last 11 games the Huskers yielded just 3.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

Arizona's spread attack is very similar to the one that Texas Tech employs and people will cite the 31 points that the Red Raiders scored against Nebraska back in October. However, Texas Tech only gained 259 total yards at a modest 4.5 yppl in that game and were helped by an 82 yard fumble return touchdown and a +2 in turnover margin. Arizona has a pretty good offense, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but Nebraska still has a huge advantage with their defense and the Huskers have shut down much better offensive units than the Wildcats possess. My math model forecasts just 4.2 yppl for Arizona in this game, so scoring will be difficult for the Wildcats.

Unfortunately for Nebraska, their offense went from being pretty good to being dismal over the second half of the season. The Cornhuskers were only 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but quarterback Zac Lee ran up his passing stats against bad defensive teams while struggling mightily against good defensive teams. I would rate the Huskers' offense at 0.6 yppl worse than average when I take out the early season games against bad defensive teams. Arizona's defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense, and my math model (after making the negative adjustment to Nebraska's offense) projects just 4.4 yppl for Nebraska in this game.

Nebraska's other advantage, besides their great defense, is their outstanding special teams, which rank among the best in the nation. My math model favors Nebraska by 3 1/2 points in this game even after significantly downgrading their offense and the Cornhuskers apply to a very good 71-28-2 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator while Arizona applies to a negative 3-22 ATS bowl game angle. I'll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better. I'll also lean with Under 38 points or higher

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

PPP

3% Idaho
2% Arizona

5% Oregon 1-1-10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-30-09

LARRY NESS

REASON FOR PICK: At 7:00 ET, my 10* NBA Game of the Month is on Atlanta. These teams faced each other at Atlanta yesterday with the Cavaliers earning a minor upset. Off that loss and having been swept by Cleveland in last year's playoffs, we should see the best of the Hawks tonight. Everyone knows that Lebron is a great player. He's arguably the best in the entire conference, if not the league. The Hawks are the more complete "team" though. A starting frontcourt of Smith (15.2-8.0), Horford (13.8-9.9) and Williams (10.2-5.1) plays with a backcourt that consists of Johnson (21.2-5.2-5.0) and Bibby (9.3-4.3 APG) as its starters plus Crawford (17.1) adding outstanding contributions of the bench. Atlanta's bench may be just as deep as Cleveland's. Last night, it was the Hawks in the role of the favorite. Tonight, the situation is reversed. Why is that noteworthy? Check this out. The Cavaliers are perfect (SU and ATS) as underdogs on the season. They're only 13-15 ATS in the favorite role though and they're also just 5-9 ATS at home. Like the Cavaliers, the Hawks have thrived when getting points. They're 4-1 ATS when playing in the underdog role, three of those wins (at Dallas, at Boston, at Portland) coming in outright fashion. The Hawks have also won 10 of 15 when playing the second of back to back games, going 9-4-1 ATS. Only one of those 15 games resulted in a double-digit loss. They've hung within six of the Cavaliers in two of their last three regular season games here and will do so again tonight. *10