12-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-25-09

Scott Delaney
Friday ... 60-Dime SAN DIEGO CHARGERS ... Before I get into this analysis, let me let you know I want you to buy a half point in this game and take 3-1/2 points with the Bolts. It is important we play this underdog with the extra half point the oddsmakers are too cheap to give us. It's the better value when playing the three-point underdog on the highway.

Now, in looking at two of the hottest teams in the NFL, I have to side with the better overall football team.

San Diego comes in after squeaking past Cincinnati 27-24 last Sunday on a 52-yard Nate Kaeding field goal in the waning seconds. It was an emotional game for the Bengals, who were playing with heavy hearts for the late Chris Henry. Thus, I wasn't surprised the game the Bengals gave the Bolts ... aside from the fact they've been playing well all season.

With the victory, San Diego extended its win streak to nine games - six of which it has covered.

And the culprit in my opinion tonight will be Philip Rivers, who continues to lead the league’s fifth-best passing attack (268.9 yards per game), with his 3,891 passing yards and 25 touchdown strikes. Tonight he'll find it rather easy to pass against a porous pass defense that ranks 31st in the league.

Overall, the Titans' stop unit ranks 26th, and that won't cut it against a Chargers team that is fourth in scoring (27.8 points per game), and that has put up at least 27 points six times during their current nine-game win streak.

Most certainly, the Titans are not taking on the same caliber of team they've faced the past two weeks - the Rams and Dolphins.

The Chargers have won 17 straight December games - covering 11 of them - and haven't lost in the final month of the year since the 2005 season finale. The Bolts are also on additional ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 with a suitcase in hand, 23-6 when catching points and 9-3 in December.

Conversely, the Titans come into this Christmas Day clash mired in ATS ruts of 1-8 against winning teams, 3-7 as the installed favorite, 2-6 off a non-cover and 3-7 in intraconference play.

The Chargers get their first-round bye with a win tonight, and I'm banking on them challenging for the outright win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-25-09

Al DeMarco
Friday's Play
5 Dime - Tennessee Titans

In San Diego’s favor tonight are two overwhelming streaks: 17 consecutive straight-up wins in the month of December and an in-season winning streak of nine in a row. But the number that concerns me the most is the fact this is the Chargers’ third road game in four weeks. That’s a tough enough situation to overcome, but when you factor in the short week plus this game being played on Christmas night, I think this is the spot where the two big winning streaks come to an end for the Bolts.

Not denying San Diego any props, but you can’t overlook what Tennessee has done since Vince Young took over at quarterback: a 7-1 SU and ATS record. And the offense has perked up to the tune of 29.5 points per game with Young at the helm.

Young, of course, hasn’t been doing it all alone; Chris Johnson has reeled off nine straight 100+ yard games, raising his season total to 1730 with two games to play. He might be even more important than Young in this contest. If Johnson has a big game that means the Titans are in control of the game clock, leaving San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers less time to work his magic on the field.

Keep in mind San Diego is 21st in the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing opposing backs to average 4.4 yards per carry.

While San Diego has the difficult task of being on the road once more, the Titans are spending the holidays at home with family and friends, preparing for their third straight home game in the process. That’s just another reason why I believe the travel catches up to San Diego, in addition to back-to-back physical big games with the Cowboys and Bengals, allowing Tennessee to post a surprisingly easy seven-point victory.


Strategy:

This line has been -3 all week long. You’ve got to buy the half-point down at -3 or even if the line moves up to -3 ½ or -4. And although I highly doubt it soars to 4 ½, you would buy down the hook in that case as well.