11-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Cstar Sports

5000 units NFL Game Of The Year New England minus the points over Jets
1000 Units Baltimore over Colts
1000 Units Pittsburgh minus the points over KC
50 units Cincinnati Oakland over the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Budin

25 dime - NE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

NSA
20* Pittsburgh
20* NY Giants
10* Colts
10* Washington
10* Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Seabass Steam
100* Raiders

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

frank patron
20000 unit lock
cincinnati bengals -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Craig Davis 100 dimer picked it up GL


No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.



Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.



Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.



The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.



Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.



If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.



As for Oakland, I realize there's not much to get excited about. I mean, we are talking about a 2-7 team. But we're catching them at home after a home loss (no travel) against a team that has now traveled back-to-back weeks and it coming a long way to be here today. We're also catching the Bengals off two straight emotionally draining victories that gave them a little breathing room in the AFC North. And I really like the fact Oakland made the decision to move QB JaMarcus Russell to the bench in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. Are we getting a top notch starter here? No, obviously we aren't. But I believe it's an upgrade at the QB position who isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit in order to deliver an accurate pass, but is also mobile enough to tuck it away and move the ball with his legs. Gradkowski used to be the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs under Jon Gruden, so it's not like he's coming into this game with no experience. He also gets to work with a healthy bunch of wide receivers, including Chaz Schilens, who was the best receiver the Raiders had in the pre-season. Let's also not forget TE Zach Miller. Not only is he a viable threat in the passing game, but the one area of weakness in the Bengals secondary is keeping an eye on opposing TEs (nearly 50 yards and 0.8 TDs per game to TEs).



As for Oakland's running game, they have all three of them healthy and ready to go, which gives Tom Cable the ability to go with the "hot hand". If Justin Fargas is running well, they'll stick with him. If not, they can fall back on Michael Bush or Darren McFadden. Bush and McFadden are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield too, so don't be surprised if Gradkowski checks down to his backs often. The Raiders run for nearly 140 yards per game at home, and this will accomplish two things. First, it keeps the clock moving while the Raiders are slowly moving the ball down the field. Second, it keeps Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense off the field.



Look, I know this isn't a sexy pick, but it's as strong as I've had in the NFL since my Super Bowl winner on Arizona last year. It's stronger than my easy (ugly) winner on the Rams last week. Dogs are covering the number more and more ever week in the NFL, and I've been tuned in for weeks. Plus, Cincy doesn't play the role of favorite very well. They're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Just not a good role for the Bengals here today. This one will come down to the wire. Maybe the Bengals win, maybe they don't... but I just don't see them winning by more than 10 points. If the Bengals were the pick, why did the number open at 10, then 70-75% of the public action came in on the Bengals, and now the line has dropped a half-point to 9.5? That clearly tells me Vegas is begging you to take the Bengals giving way too many points in this one, as they haven't won a road game all year by more than 7 points and have only accomplished that feat just once all year. Too many factors playing against the Bengals today, so I'm siding with the Raiders as my top NFL play of the year thus far.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Kelso

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15 UnitsColts (-1½) over Ravens
1:00 PM -- M&T Bank Stadium
Indianapolis Colts (9-0) -1 ½ over BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-4) Prediction: Indianapolis by 9-10 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: CBS, DirecTV 704 Comments: The Baltimore Ravens have one major weakness—the inability of its defense to stop the long passes thrown down the field and now it faces the master of this element of NFL football. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has the ability to pick the Ravens to pieces and will nail the defense on every mistake it makes.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
5 UnitsNy Giants (-7) over Falcons
1:00 PM -- Giants Stadium
NEW YORK GIANTS (5-4) -7 over Atlanta Falcons (5-4) Prediction: New York by 13-14 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: FOX, DirecTV 711 Comments: The Giants come off a bye week, have almost everyone healthy for the first time in a month and have had excellent practices this week. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is struggling and will find it tough sledding against a defensive that will bring it just as it did when the Giants opened 5-0. The figures and the circumstances say the real Giants will show up today. It will not help Atlanta that it will most likely be without running back Michael Turner (injury) who has averaged 9.1 yards per carry in his last three games. The absence of Turner will put even more pressure on Ryan—and that certainly is not a helpful situation.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
200 UnitsPatriots (-10½) over Ny Jets
4:15 PM -- Gillette Stadium
NFL Blowout Game Of The Year II 200 Units NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-3) -10 ½ over New York Jets (4-5) Prediction: New England by 27-28 Starting Time: 4:15 TV: CBS, DirecTV 715 Comments: The New England Patriots have everything working for them in this one. First of all, the stubbed their toe in that embarrassing 35-34 loss at Indianapolis last week and have a long history of bouncing back off losses such as that, raining fire and brimstone on their next opponent. Now factor into the equation, the fact the Jets beat the Patriots 16-9 in the second game of the season and the revenge factor is in play and New England Coach Bill Belichik has a long history of getting even. It also is important to note the Jets are really struggling with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. They opened the season 3-0 and have since gone 1-5. It all adds up to a long afternoon for New York as it takes on a New England team with better talent and a bad attitude.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Seabass Final
50 Teaser Ne/seatle
50 Denver
100 Cleveland
100 Baltimore
200 Buffalo
300 Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Executive
400 Gb
150 Nyg
100 Den, Jack

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia vs. Chicago

The Eagles take on the Bears in Chicago in a matchup of teams each riding two-game losing streaks. Bad news for the Bears is QB Jay Cutler's horrific 3-15-1 ATS mark in his NFL career as a starter at home when his team's win percentage is .444 or greater, including 0-11 ATS when the Over/Under total in the game is more than 43 points. Add to that Chicago's 0-5 SU and ATS mark in games under head coach Lovie Smith versus a greater than .400 opponent off back-to-back losses. On the flip side, the Eagles are 8-0 SU and ATS versus a .500 or less opponent off back-to-back losses when Philadelphia is off a loss. The clincher is the fact that NFL favorites with a winning record in Game Ten of the season, playing off back-to-back losses, are 13-0 SU and ATS versus a .750 or less opponent off a win or loss of less than ten points. Lay the points here tonight. Play On: Philadelphia Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday, November 22, 2009

NFL Play #1
Detroit -3 1PM Eastern
Line as of 330AM Eastern 11/22/09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Score Executive Club
400% Pitt
300% St Louis
300% Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

budin
pats

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

SCORE

500 cinc
300 ind
300 sf

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-09

Dominic Fazzini
Saturday's play 30 Dime -- Steelers (minus points vs. CHIEFS)

STEELERS

Pittsburgh's offense had been on a roll before last week's 18-12 loss to Cincinnati, scoring at least 27 points for five straight games. But after not reaching the end zone against the Bengals, I think the Steelers should have no problem putting up points against Kansas City, which has given up an average of 30 points and 443.3 yards in its last three games at home.

The Chiefs also suck on offense, averaging just 15.8 points and 266.6 yards per game for the season. And now K.C. is without leading rusher Larry Johnson, who was released for his off-the-field behavior, and leading receiver Dwayne Bowe, who was suspended for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

That said, I can't imagine the Chiefs putting up many points against a Pittsburgh defense that allows just 17.4 points and 277.4 yards per game. The Steelers hold opponents to just 69.3 yards rushing per game and have allowed a league-low 11 touchdowns all season.

Kansas City is 0-4 straight up at Arrowhead Stadium this year, and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Look for Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall to have big days as the Pittsburgh offense rolls up more than 27 points, and the Steelers' defense holds the Chiefs under 10 points. Take Pittsburgh to roll in this one.

5 Dime -- RAIDERS (plus points vs. Bengals)

RAIDERS

Has we seen the last of JaMarcus Russell in Oakland's starting lineup? Probably not, although you never know. One thing I know, however, is that the Raiders seem inspired to have Bruce Gradkowski taking snaps for today's game.

Now Gradkowski is not Tom Brady in waiting, not by any means. But the Oakland players had lost faith in Russell, and it showed in the team's performance. But I expect the Raiders to play an inspired game today in an attempt to try and turn their season around with a new leader on offense.

The Bengals are due for a bit of a letdown after beating the rival Steelers for the second time this season, and find themselves in the role of a road favorite, which is not a position they have seemed comfortable in in the past.

Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS overall as a favorite, 1-6 ATS as a road favorite, 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, and 5-11 ATS against losing teams. I'm not saying the Raiders are going to win this game. I just think they're going to scare the hell out of the Bengals. Take Oakland to cover the points at home.