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Re: 10-15-09
Savannah Sports
Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
3 (***) LA Dodgers -137
Savannah Sports
Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
3 (***) LA Dodgers -137
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Re: 10-15-09
Black Widow
6* W id ow W is e g uy Big East "S TE AL" OF THE Y EA R on Cincinnati -2.5(-106 at 5dimes)
The Bearcats are an absolute steal Thursday as just a small favorite to beat South Florida. The Bulls don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Cincinnati in this one, though both defenses are pretty evenly matched. Cincinnati is scoring 42.0 points/game and it's not like they have done it against easy opponents. The Bearcats are 5-0 with wins over the likes of Rutgers, Oregon State and Fresno State. South Florida's only good win this season came at Florida State, but the Seminoles are now 2-4 so how good of a win was that really? Cincinnati has won 3 straight over the Bulls and the Bearcats are 5-1 ATS against South Florida in their last 6 meetings. Cincinnati's defense is giving up just 13.8 points/game this season, including just 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. That is important because South Florida runs the ball 40 times/game, and that accounts for roughly 65% of their offense. No matter what anyone says, backup QB P.J. Daniels is not nearly the same caliber of player as starting QB Matt Grothe, who is out for the season with an injury. Daniels is completing just 57% of his passes while Grothe completed 73% of his attempts, and both have seen equal playing time to this point. Tony Pike is in the Heisman race by completing 67% of his passes for 1,492 yards and 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. The Bulls have yet to see an offense anywhere near the caliber of this Cincinnati offensive unit. The Bearcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cincy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The Bearcats remain unbeaten as they prove they are the superior team Thursday. Take Cincinnati and lay the points.Comment
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Re: 10-15-09
Nick BookieKiller Parsons
Today's Pick: Cincinnati/South Florida OVER
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the "over": Tony Pike looks to lead the eighth-ranked Bearcats to a fourth straight win over the 21st-ranked Bulls in a matchup of undefeated Big East teams Thursday night. Cincinnati had little trouble moving the ball against South Florida in last years matchup as Pike completed 20 of 28 passes for 281 yards and two TDs. Pike and the Bearcats are rolling offensively this season as he's thrown for 1,493 yards and 13 TDs while getting picked off just three times. He’s six TDs shy of his total from 12 games last year! Cincinnati ranks third in the country in scoring with 43.2 points per game; however one area of concern for the Bearcats is on the defensive side of the ball; Bearcats opponents have held the ball for a nation-leading 36:08 per contest! Cincinnati has already seen the total go "over" the posted number in its only conference game this season and I expect that trend to continue in this one; it should also be pointed out that the total has gone over the posted number in five of the Bearcats last seven on the road.
On the other side of the field: South Florida ranks third in the nation in forced turnovers (16), fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and I expect the Bulls to once again make the most of their opportunities on Thursday night. Offensively, South Florida is led by freshman QB B.J. Daniels, who has started two games since senior Matt Grothe suffered a season-ending knee injury. Daniels has made an appearance in all five of South Florida’s games, passing for six TDs while getting picked off twice. In all, the Bulls are third in the league in total offense in averaging 413.6 yards a game and are second in rushing (190.8). South Florida has also seen the total go over the posted number in its only conference game this season; expect that trend to continue as well. It's also important to point out that over the last two seasons the Bulls have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten home games.
Bottom line: South Florida has lost three in a row in the series with the Bearcats after winning two of the first three meetings. Cincinnati is the highest-scoring team in the conference; the Bulls are the stingiest on defense. However, the Bearcats have given up only three sacks, a league low, in five games and I expect Pike to continue to receive awesome protection and to get the Bulls defenders on their heels. Over the last three seasons the Bearcats have seen the total go over the posted number in 10 of 15 road games and this powerful O/U trend continues tonight; when taking into account all of the above facts/stats, the sharp money is on the OVER! *9*Comment
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Re: 10-15-09
Marc Lawrence
Today's Pick: SOUTH FLORIDA
When South Florida hosts Cincinnati in a battle of unbeatens at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa they will do so knowing that Game Six matchups of 5-0 teams finds the underdog 11-5 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS if the favored opponent is of a win of 24 or more points. In addition, our powerful database reminds us that any undefeated college home dog from Game Six out is 18-7-2 ATS when facing a greater than .850 opponent, including 5-0 ATS when playing with rest. With USF 9-1 SU at home with a win percentage of more than .750 this decade and the Bearcats just 2-17 SU away versus undefeated opposition this decade, look for the Bulls to win the battle of unbeatens here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on South Florida.Comment
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Re: 10-15-09
Rocketman Sports
Today's Pick: WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Washington is 27-16 the past 3 years at home when the total is 6 or more. Washington has lost 4 games in a row by 1 goal after winning their first two games of the season. I expect them to get back on track tonight as the public will be all over San Jose as an underdog tonight. Sharks are 6-20 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Sharks are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games. Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Capitals are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Capitals are 11-5 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Capitals are 42-20 in their last 62 home games. We'll play Washington for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.Comment
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Re: 10-15-09
Lenny Del Genio
Today's Pick: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Regardless of the pitching change, we like the Dodgers here as a lefty vs. lefty matchup greatly works in their favor. The Phillies lost money in road night games vs. lefties this year, going just 7-7. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 13-9 at home vs. lefties, scoring almost five runs per game. The bullpen is a major advantage for LA in this series as they can turn to reliable southpaws Kuo and Sherrill, both of whom will be able to handle the lefty power hitters in the Philly lineup. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will have to live and die with Brad Lidge. The Dodgers best hitters seem to excel vs. lefties. As a team, they have a .343 OBP vs. southpaws. Cole Hamels may be the reigning World Series MVP, but he has not pitched well of late, with the team losing his last four starts. He was on the mound for the Phillies only loss in the series with the Rockies. His ERA in his last three starts is 7.98. His wife just had a baby, on the date of the Game 2 loss, which can be a distraction. Young phenom Clayton Kershaw has been awesome for the Dodgers, posting a 1.89 ERA in this ballpark in 17 starts this year and he’s allowed two earned runs or less in SEVEN consecutive starts. The Dodgers are 19-6 as a home favorite in this price range (-125 to -150). LA Dodgers are our NLCS Oddsmaker Mismatch.Comment
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Re: 10-15-09
Marco D'Angelo | MLB Money Line Thu, 10/15/09 - 8:05 PM
double-dime bet 951 PHI (+130) BetUS vs 952 LOS
Analysis: PLAY: PHILADELPHIA
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
The Dodgers swept ST. LOUI«S to advance but the fact is ST. LOUIS didn't play well at all in the final few weeks of the season and when Matt Holliday drop the game ending fly ball in Game 2 two ST. LOUIS was done. Philadelphia continued to scrap their way to this series coming from behind twice to win. The Dodgers send a young pitcher out to start Game One while Philadelphia counters with Cole Hammels. Expect Hamels to come up big as even though he hasn't been as dominate this year as last he still has owned the Dodgers as he is 4-0 against lifetime with a 1.64 ERA. In 2 starts this year Hamels has pitched 16 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. Philadelphia grabs game one. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as Marco's NL Insider Game of the Week.
Marco Rated this Play a 2 UNIT PLAY on his Executive Late Phone ServiceComment
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Re: 10-15-09
Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - CINCINNATI...10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA (Hamels over Kershaw) 30 DIMER - CINCINNATI BEARCATS
Don't get sucked into backing the Bulls here, as I know the points look tempting, but there is a reason South Florida is catching a few here, and the main reason they are is that their QB Daniels is going to be a deer-in-the-headlights in this spot tonight.
Cincy senior QB Tony Pike is clearly the better of the 2 signal-callers on the field this evening, and I expect Pike to show his wares on a nationally televised stage.
The Bearcats have won the last 3 against the Bulls, and they have covered the last 5 against the Bulls.
I have watched enough of both teams to know that Cincinnati has played the tougher of the 2 schedules, and a closer look at South Florida's 5-0 mark shows early season wins over Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern. Not exactly a "powerhouse" trio of schools!
Highlly-impressed with Cincy's wins at Rutgers and Oregon State, and they did record double-digits in sacks last week against Miami-Ohio in a 24-point win, but non-cover as the 29-point favorite.
This is an impost the Bearcats can handle.
10 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Hamels over Kershaw)
I just don't get the lack of respect the Phillies are getting in this game, but rather than question it, I will gladly take the plus-money on the defending World Series champs.
Philly easily dispatched the Dodgers in 5 games last October on this stage, and Cole Hamels has handled LA every step of the way. 2-0 regular season since 2008 in 4 starts, and 2-0 last October in the postseason with 14 innings of 1 run ball allowed.
Clayton Kershaw sports a sparkling ERA, but the Phillies haven't been bothered by him, as he is 0-3 the last 3 times he has faced them, 12 runs allowed in 16 innings of work.
Take the Phils!Comment
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