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20* U S C
20* U S C
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Re: 9-13-08
Big Al
At 7 pm (time change), our selection is on Arkansas State minus the points over Southern Miss. Steve Roberts' squad has gotten off to a terrific start this season. In week 1, the Wolves went into College Station, and upset the Texas A&M Aggies as an 18-point underdog. Then, to show that game wasn't a fluke, they absolutely annihilated Texas Southern this past Saturday 83-10. That was the most points scored in a game since Fresno State piled up 94 points vs. New Mexico in 1991. In its win, Arkansas St. had 670 yards of offense, and that followed up its 415 yard output at Texas A&M. Now, Arkansas St. will attempt to make it three wins in a row, as it will take on Southern Miss at home in Jonesboro. Off their two wins, the Red Wolves fall into two super systems of mine that are 73-15 and 28-15 ATS since 1980. Let's take a look at our 28-15 angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any college football home favorite of less than 10 points, if it scored 60+ points in its previous game. And if our home team is matched up against a non-conference foe, then our 28-15 system improves to 10-2 ATS. Added Board Game of the Year on Arkansas St.
At 3 pm (time change), our selection is on Tulane plus the points over East Carolina. Clearly, the most surprising team in the country thus far has been Skip Holtz' East Carolina Pirates. They upset then-Top 20-ranked Virginia Tech in their first game, and followed that victory up with a blowout win over 8th-ranked West Virginia. In both games, East Carolina was an underdog of more than a touchdown, but now the Pirates have leaped into the Rankings (currently #14), and find themselves installed as big road favorites vs. Tulane on Saturday. The Green Wave are 0-1 on the year, but covered the spread at Alabama last week. (They lost 20-6 as a 29-point underdog.) This will be a very difficult game for East Carolina. Not only are they primed for a letdown after their two monster wins, but they have a revenge game on deck against in-state rival North Carolina St. Indeed, it's very difficult for NCAA teams to cover the spread away from home off back-to-back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against losing conference foes, and the line is 17 points or less. In this situation, they're a horrid 5-33 ATS since 1982, including 1-20 ATS vs. a foe off an ATS win. Conference USA Game of the Year on Tulane.
At 8 pm, our selection is on Southern Cal minus the points over Ohio State. USC didn't start the year in the #1 spot, but leapfrogged Georgia after its impressive 52-7 win on the road in Charlottesville, Virginia to open the season. In that victory, USC amassed 558 yards of offense, and held Virginia to just 187 -- including a paltry 32 yards on the ground! In contrast, Ohio State struggled last Saturday against a poor Ohio U. team, and trailed for much of the game before eventually winning 26-14 as 34-point favorites. I look for USC to blow out Ohio State on this Saturday Night, as home teams off a 35-point (or greater) victory to open the season are a solid 14-0 ATS since 1980 in Game 2, provided they are priced from -13.5 to +3.5 points in that Game 2, and they covered the spread in their first game by more than 16 points. Take USC. -
Re: 9-13-08
DR. BOB
Vandy 3*
Kentucky 2*
Opinions
So Carolina
Iowa
TCU
Ariz St
Dr. Bob Confirmed
3 Star Selection
***VANDERBILT (-7.5) 34 Rice 16
I’ll take Vanderbilt in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -11 points.
2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY (-17.0) 34 Middle Tenn 7
I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less.Comment
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Re: 9-13-08
12:00p Ben Burns Maryland +14.5 / 4 units
3:30p Ben Burns South Carolina +7.5 / 3 units
3:30p Ben Burns Syracuse +28.0 / 3 units
3:00p Ben Burns Tulane +13.5 / 5 units
3:30p Ben Burns Virginia Tech -6.5 (-110) / 9 units
10:30p Ben Burns Wisconsin Fresno State u50.0 / 6 unitsComment
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Re: 9-13-08
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider.
Gene Chizik was a highly touted DC at both Auburn in '04 (Tigers were 13-0) and at Texas in '05 and '06 (Longhorns won national title in '05). His first head coaching job came last year at Iowa State and while he finished a disappointing 3-9, he was able to continue ISU's recent domination of Iowa, beating the Hawkeyes 15-13, as 17-point home 'dogs. Kirk Ferentz took over the Iowa program in 1999 and went 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two years but then reeled off six consecutive seasons in which he led the Hawkeyes to a bowl, before going bowl-less in '07. The loss in Ames last year, being the difference between 7-5 (and a bowl appearance) and 6-6. Ferentz is well respected at Iowa but he's come up woefully short against Iowa State in his nine-year tenure, going 3-6 SU and a pathetic 1-8 ATS vs the Cyclones. That's in direct contrast to his predecessor at Iowa City, Hayden Fry, who from 1979 through 1998 went 16-4 SU against ISU. Both teams enter this game at 2-0. ISU has beaten South Dakota State (44-17) and Kent State (48-28), while Iowa has beaten Maine (46-3) and Florida International (42-0). ISU's high scores are a little deceiving, as the Cyclones have failed to reach 400 yards of total offense in either game this year (in comparison Iowa has gained 457 and 512 yards in the first two games this year) and was actually outgained by KSU (410-374) last week. ISU has taken full advantage of its 10 takeaways in '08, as a blocked punt and two fumble recoveries led directly to 21 points last week against the Golden Flashes. QB Austen Arnaud has completed 76.9 percent of his passes this year (20-of-26) for 254 yards but that's really not a lot of work. Phillip Bates (8-of-14 for 109 yards with two TDs) is more of an athletic QB and has seen his share of playing time as well. He'll enter this game as ISU's leading rusher (17-138 8.1 YPC), as despite some excellent rushing numbers, the Cyclones don't have a dominant RB. ISU's defense, against two mediocre teams, has NOT looked very impressive so far. For the second straight week the Cyclones' front-seven was pounded by the opposition's ground attack, as Iowa State is currently allowing an average of 211.5 YPG on the ground (6.2 YPC). The Hawkeyes should be "licking their chops" to get at ISU's DL, as Iowa has averaged 243.0 YPG (5.7 per) on the ground the first two weeks, with six TDs. Shonn Greene has 239 yards (6.8 YPC) and freshman Jewel Hampton has 122 yards (6.4 per). LY's starter at QB, Jake Christensen, started against Maine but Ricky Stanzi started LW and gets the nod here. Both have played at a high level. Unlike ISU's 'D', Iowa's 'D' has been terrific. Iowa has surrendered a total of just three points in its first two games, limiting teams to just 96.5 rushing YPG on a mere 3.1 YPC. The Hawkeyes have been equally impressive against the pass, allowing an average 122.5 YPG (has four INTs and of course, no TDs allowed). Iowa has also done a tremendous job pressuring the QB, collecting seven sacks a four interceptions. This will be Arnaud's first road start (plus Bates first real taste of action on the road as well) and he'll be facing a team eager to erase the bitter taste of recent failures by the Iowa football program against its in-state rivals. Revenge is a great motivator in CFB and it works especially well when you get the more talented team "playing with revenge!"
Las Vegas Insider on Iowa.
Weekend Wipeout Winner
Once upon a time (with Chuck Amato as its head coach), the Wolfpack were almost a "sure-thing" as a road underdog. As for NC State's current coach, Tom O'Brien, he was also known as a dangerous "road dog" while at BC. However, as the saying goes, "that was THEN and this is NOW!" This current Wolfpack team is anemic! In four road games vs BCS schools last year, NC State was only competitive vs a bad (and troubled) Miami-Fla team, beating the 'Canes in Miami, 19-16 (OT). NC St lost at BC by 20, at FSU by 17 and at Wake by 20. The Wolfpack opened the '08 season by losing 34-0 August 28 at South Carolina, gaining just 138 total yards (10 FDs). Last Saturday, at home vs William and Mary, NC St won 34-24 but again totaled a meager 11 FDs. QB Evans was replaced by Beck (17-of-25 for 246 yards with two TDs) but Evans was only starting because redshirt freshman Russell Wilson was out with a concussion. Wilson is expected to be ready here but let's remember, he's the guy who was 1-of-5 for 12 yards vs South Carolina before getting hurt. Wilson, Evans, Beck....whatever! None can play and whichever one does, he'll have to deal with a running game which averaged 89 YPG (3.0 YPC) last year and in two games this year is even WORSE (78 YPG / 2.3 YPC)! Now it's easy to "take shots" at Clemson's Tommy Bowden, who every time he has you believing his team is "ready for prime time," the Tigers "lay an egg." Ranked No. 9 in the AP preseason poll, the '08 Tigers were talking ACC title, BCS bowl game and maybe even national championship game. Yeah right! The Tigers were embarrassed 34-10 by Alabama in Atlanta on August 30 (bye-bye national title-game talk). Clemson was home last Saturday and beat The Citadel 45-17, as RBs Davis and Spiller, who combined for just 20 yards rushing vs Alabama, ran for 182. Davis has over 3,000 in his first three seasons (5.4 YPC) and 36 rushing TDs coming in. The explosive Spiller has averaged 6.2 YPC the last two years. This duo was supposed to dominate the ACC in '08, making QB Cullen Harper (65.1% with 27 TDs and just 6 INTs in his first year as a starter LY) even more dangerous. Harper was a 'bust' vs Alabama and hurt his shoulder (the one which needed surgery LY) against The Citadel, but reports are that he's fine and will play. This is a great spot for Clemson. It's the team's ACC opener and it's sandwiched between two Div I-AA opponents (The Citadel and South Carolina State) plus the Tigers end September with their fourth straight home game, a contest with Maryland (which lost 24-14 last week to Middle Tenn St!). Look for the Tigers to be 4-1 when they visit Winston Salem on October 9 for a Thursday night showdown with Wake Forest. The Tigers will likely 'tank' that one but not this Saturday. Clemson outgained NC State last year in Raleigh 608-192 in a 42-20 win and forget about revenge, as the Wolfpack have lost four straight to the Tigers and motivation can't bridge this talent gap. After each Tiger player touches "Howard's Rock," this game will be all but over.
Weekend Wipeout Winner on Clemson.Comment
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Re: 9-13-08
Larry Ness' CFB Bailout Game of the Month (4-1 or 80% with GOM plays in FB '08)
My CFB Bailout GOM is on Fresno State at 10:30 ET. I'm going to the "last game on the board" for my Bailout Game of the Month in September. Bret Bielema had "big shoes to fill" taking over for the beloved and highly successful Barry Alvalrez at the beginning of the '06 season in Madison. The Wisconsin faithful can't be unhappy with his 21-5 record in '06 and '07 plus the Badgers are 2-0 to start '08. However, Wisconsin knows it will have its hands full with Fresno State this Saturday night. Pat Hill's team has always lived by the mantra of "we'll play anyone, anywhere, anytime" and FSU has already traveled to Madison twice this decade, losing 32-20 in '01 and winning 23-21 in '02. Wisconsin QB Allan Evridge is a Kansas St transfer and this will be his first road start as a Badger. He only needed to throw 10 passes in Wisconsin's 38-17 season-opening win over Akron, as PJ Hill ran for 210 yards. However, the Badgers fell behind Marshall 14-0 last week, before scoring the game's final 51 points. Evridge threw for 308 yards in that game and will be helped greatly here if TE Beckum (75 catches LY but has missed both games so far in '08) returns from his hamstring problems as expected. Beckum makes a HUGE difference, as Wisconsin's WRs are very average. Wisconsin's OL could give FSU's defensive front fits and PJ Hill (1,569 and 1,212 YR the L2 years) could have a big game. Then again, Wisconsin traveled to Las Vegas last year against an undersized and quite pathetic UNLV team, which finished 2-10 in '07. The Badgers actually trailed 13-12 in the fourth quarter of that game, until getting the game-winning score with 1:53 left. Fresno State QB Brandstater came on strong last year, ending with a 62.6 completion rate and a TD-to-INT ratio of 15-5. He did little against Rutgers on Labor Day, as RB Ryan Mathews was the star, rushing for 163 yards with three TDs. FSU has 10 offensive starters back from LY I believe will be up to the challenge. A loss to Wisconsin would end any dreams that Fresno State has of finishing in the BCS top-12, which could earn them an automatic BCS bowl bid. It should be noted that all three of the previous 'BCS bowl crashers,' Utah in '04, Boise State in '06 and Hawaii in '07, finished their regular seasons undefeated. FSU (and Pat Hill) owns 13 wins over BCS schools since 2000 (only Utah's 14 is more among non-BCS teams) and I say No. 14 is on tap for Saturday night! Bulldog Stadium (41,031 capacity) will be over-flowing with a chorus of "another one bites the dust" by game's end. CFB Bailout Game of the Month 15* Fresno State.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (50-31 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 10:05 ET. The Giants and Padres may occupy the bottom two places in the NL West (not exactly MLB's toughest division) but tonight's pitching matchup features Tim Lincecum (a Cy Young Award candidate) and Chris Young, who nearly pitched a perfect game in his last start. Lincecum (16-3, 2.54 ERA) is having a terrific season and much like Cleveland's Cliff Lee, he's doing it for a team playing under .500 baseball. I love comparing a pitcher's W-L record to that of his team's, which I believe is an excellent indicator of his worth. In Lincecum's case, the numbers are quite eye-opening. He's 16-3 (.842), while the Giants are 66-81 overall and 50-78 (.391) in games in which he didn't get a decision . How about that for being a "difference-maker?" Getting right to the important stat for us sports gamblers, the Giants are 19-10 (.655) in his starts, while going just 47-71 (.398) with any other starter on the mound. Those are still, very impressive numbers. Lincecum has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 225-74 and will face a San Diego team which is 57-91 overall and can't hit, with a team BA of .249 (28th) and a per game average of 3.89 (30th). At minus-$3,507 vs the moneyline, the Padres rank dead-last in all of MLB. Chris Young of San Diego came within four outs of perfection in his last start, retiring the first 23 Brewers in order before Gabe Kapler homered, as the San Padres beat Milwaukee 10-1 on Sunday. It was a major accomplishment for a pitcher whose season has been anything but perfect. In fact, Young hasn't been the same pitcher since he missed time in late July and early August last year, with an oblique strain. Young had made 20 starts before going on the DL last year. When he returned, he was NOT the same. Young's ERA was 1.82 through his first 20 starts of '07 but he went 0-5 with a 5.96 ERA in his final 10 starts of '07 (Padres were 2-8). He was healthy to open '08 but then on May 21 vs St Louis, Young had his nose broken when Albert Pujols lined a shot off his face. Young didn't return to the mound until July 29 and while he's "shown flashes of his old self," like last Sunday, one can't ignore his two starts prior to his near no-hitter, ones in which he lasted just nine inngs, while allowing 15 hits and 11 ERs (11.00 ERA). The Giants have won SIX of their last seven and have the motivation of possibly helping Lincecum earn the Cy Young award. Las Vegas Insider SF Giants.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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