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Tom Stryker
5* ORLANDO
5* ORLANDO
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Re: 4-19-09
DailyPowerRatings
Daily Free Pick -
Sunday, April 19th
5* Star - 9+ Point Differential from Point Spread (Highest-Rated 3 Unit Play)
4* Star - 7 to 8 Point Differential (2 Unit Play)
3* Star - 5 to 6 Point Differential (1 Unit Play)
2* Star - 3 to 4 Point Differential (Slight Edge)
1* Star - 0 to 2 Point Differential (No Play Recommended)
Team
(Game*) Game Rating
(Point Differential) Vegas
Line Our
Line Power
Rating Series Home/
Away Rest/
Play
(711) Philadelphia
6 1 1 2
(712) Orlando 4* Star (-8) -9 -17 2 -2 -3 0
Today's Play:
4* Orlando (-9) 2 Unit Play, should be -17 Point FavoritesComment
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Re: 4-19-09
Jeff Scott
5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)
Boston/ Baltimore Over 10: Baltimore's road games have averaged 16.8 rpg and they do come in 3rd in scoring at 6.2 rpg. John Lester has strugggled out the gate with a 9.00 ERA in his 2 starts and should have problems with this strong Baltimore offense. Koji Uehara has a 7.20 ERA in his 2 starts and a 2-0 record in those starts and that would indicate high scoring games (15.5 rpg in his 2 starts). He will be facing a Boston team that is starting to score as they have averaged 7.3 rpg in their last 4 games. This one should be easy.
4 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ NY Yanks Over 10.5: AJ Burnett has a 9.00 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Tribe, while Pavano has been rocked in his first 2 starts (16.71 ERA). The Yanks were blasted last night 22-4 and you can expect the big bats will be out for revenge. Cleveland has scored 37 runs in the first 3 games of this series and should continue to score vs Burnett. Easy over here.
3 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Kansas City Over 10.5: Do we see a pattern here with the Overs. LOL Texas has a very powerful offense and they have been held to just 3 runs in their last 2 games. The Rangers are still scoring 8.1 rpg at home this year and they should breakout again vs today's starter. Kyle Davies does have a 2.13 ERA to start the year for the Royals, but he has a career 5.52 ERA, including a 5.89 ERA in 4 starts vs the rangers and an 8.03 ERA in 3 starts at Rangers Ballpark. The Royals should be able to grab plenty of runs vs Padilla, who has a 10.00 ERA in his 2 starts this year and he does have a 4.79 ERA in his last 13 starts at Rangers Ballpark and he owns a 4.,79 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Royals. Last night just 2 runs were score, but Ranger home games have still scored 14.5 rpg. I see this one hitting that mark as well.
2 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati -119 over HOUSTON: Edinson Volquez will out duel the rookie as Cincinnati gets payback for last night's 7-0 loss.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY METS -157 over MilwaukeeComment
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Re: 4-19-09
BeatYourBookie
Daily Premium Hoops
& Hockey Winners for Sunday
NBA Basketball
100* Play New Orleans (+6) over Denver (NBA)
Denver is 5-10 ATS vs. New Orleans at home
Denver is 1-3 ATS over the last 4 games
Denver is 1-8 SU when playing in the 1st round of the playoffs
Denver is allowing an average of 103 ppg on defense over the last 5 games
100* Play Miami (+5) over Atlanta (NBA)
Miami is 6-2 ATS over the last 8 games
Miami is 4-2 ATS vs. Atlanta on the road the last 3 seasons
Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play Carolina (-140) over New Jersey (NComment
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Re: 4-19-09
M@linsky (8-1) last 2 days in Bases per website
Today’s Free Pick
GAME: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Apr 19, 2009 4:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 8
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #962 SAN FRANCISCO/ARIZONA Over
It is going to be a nice “summer” day in San Francisco, with the first pitch temperature in the upper 70's and a slight breeze blowing out to right field. That does not call for the cheap “8’s” that the betting markets reduced this game to in the early trading (you should be able to find one at no worse than -105).
Randy Johnson is off to an 0-2/11.42 start, and at this stage we have to wonder if that is all that there is left. He last only 8.2 innings through those two games, laboring through 175 pitches to merely get that far, and Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo (!), Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier have already homered against him. And while his statistics were decent LY take note of how they got put together – of the 95 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, his difficulty of batters faced was dead last at #95 (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our preferred measure). Now he faces a lineup that is most familiar with his ways, and he will have a difficult time getting deep into this one. That opens the door against a mediocre Giant bullpen, one that also has particular late-game issues with closer Brian Wilson already throwing 41 pitches in working each game of this series.
Arizona counters with hard-throwing Max Scherzer, for a while. But maybe not for long. Scherzer only got 8.2 innings of work in the Cactus League, and went 4.2 in a AAA start and five frames in his lone outing with the Diamondbacks. That does not have him anywhere near the kind of rhythm and conditioning needed to make more than a couple of passes through a lineup, and note that he has yet to pitch beyond the 6th inning in his Major League career.
There are multiple ways to win this one – hitters that have been had-cuffed so far in this series can get some good early swings in the warm conditions against the fastballs that they are going to see, but even if Johnson and Scherzer can be effective at the start we do not expect either to be around when the 7th inning takes place. That means late opportunities against middle relief corps that are unimposing, and it does not ask us for much at all to top this low Total.Comment
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