Tuesday 2/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#5 David's Gem	Willing to take a price shot here in hopes that he can get the right kind of trip bothering the rail runner throughout in a race that otherwise doesn't have a ton of serious early burn. Some room to bounce back.
#4 Askin for a Baskin	The recent running lines obviously make him tough, but he was beaten for this same price here a few months ago, and the price probably gets a lot shorter this time around.
#1 Two Bit Kid	He is probably fast enough to mix things up early today, but I worry he could get a tricky trip while arguing for position early on. Capable right back.
Race Summary	David's Gem is fast enough to be in the mix early, and he could be in position to get first jump and see if he can hold from there.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#2 El Bandido	He drilled Mountaineer special weights in December before coming down on a positive test, and I think he might get an OK setup in a race without a ton of other finishing punch. Late threat.
#1 Tap Your Heart	He is probably a good fit at the local level, and he could be tough to reel in if he doesn't take too much early heat from Dark Baron. One of the ones.
#7 Buehler's Day Off	He has some positional pace and an occasional ability to get past horses late, and that makes him an obvious player in here at what might be a short kind of price.
Race Summary	El Bandido was competitive enough with the local company prior to that last one when he was DQ'ed after the fact, and the price might be right if the other listed two command a lot of cash.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#7 Magic Palace	She has taken a quick liking to the local surface, posting a couple of really easy wins with sharp moves in both. Her ability to settle off the splits without getting completely outrun makes her dangerous while drawing outside of a few potential pace players.
#9 Gray Royality	Probably silly to play against him in the current form, but I'm wondering if there is a mild step back waiting for him at some point -- not necessarily a clunker, just a slightly more modest run that would leave him open to getting beat. Perfect spying trip should be there again.
#1 Windy Lu Who	Tough call here, but she might be able to relax just a touch and avoid getting caught up with a few of those more committed pace types drawn outside of her. Pocket trip?
Race Summary	Magic Palace has some midrange price appeal in a race where I'm looking for something from a little bit off the pace, and I'm hoping the price will stay fair with Gray Royality likely to take some action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #2

#6 STEVIE T (8-1)	Got up for second behind rival who romped again recently, price attached.
#3 TOUGH WORKOUT (5-1)	Out-dueled the favorite, couldn’t fend off the trip-sitting winner.
#1 SMART AND FAST (8-5)	Three seconds in last six starts, but hard to back as fave with 1-29 mark.
Race Summary	STEVIE T rallied 3-wide in a much-improved effort but couldn’t reach pace-setting winner Max Foster, who came back to win a $5,000/nw2 claimer by 4-1/4 lengths two starts later. He gets ample pace flow and top call in a 1-3-6 exacta box.

Parx - Race #3

#3 DRIVEN TO SUCCESS (10-1)	Long series of works, like the recent gate move, entered on cancelled card.
#2 MOLLY MALONE (5-1)	Made pair of middle moves at 7F recently into contention but flattened out.
#1 ALCALA (9-2)	Prepped well from Parx gate, jockey-trainer duo shows positive ROI with last 30 starters.
Race Summary	DRIVEN TO SUCCESS need not be much to contend in her debut. She has been prepping three months, stepped it up for a 1:02-2/5 gate more January 3 and is worth a price shot. Her dam was unraced but her sire was a first-out Maiden Special Weight winner, follow-up stakes winner and multiple graded stakes placed. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #5

#3 GAME SEVEN (5-2)	Game effort in defeat on sloppy track, barn on 12-26 run with class droppers.
#1 FICTIONALFAIRYTALE (6-1)	Piling up checks in starter allowance company but hasn’t won in awhile.
#8 IRA THE ICON (8-1)	A win and a second in three starts as a gelding, gets second-time Lasix.
Race Summary	GAME SEVEN gunned to the lead from post 11, dueled with the winner on the turn and got caught late for the place spot at this distance. He has tactical speed and should go well in his second start for this barn with a better post. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $15,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 3:41P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 6 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED), OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BUCKS SOME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TARA'S TALENT: Hor se has a TrackMaster "B" designation. PEACHY WEACHY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. PEACELOVENKARMA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. IFIHADACHANCE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	BUCKS SOME	8/1	5/1
8	TARA'S TALENT	4/1	5/1
5	PEACHY WEACHY	10/1	8/1
1	PEACELOVENKARMA	12/1	9/1
7	IFIHADACHANCE	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ANGELOFCANTERBURY	3	7/2	Front-runner	65	66	78.2	61.4	46.4
4	COLLIN'S GREY LADY	4	10/1	Front-runner	76	75	66.8	56.4	42.9
7	IFIHADACHANCE	7	6/1	Stalker	80	69	62.6	67.6	60.1
6	BUCKS SOME	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	82	60.8	74.2	67.7
10	SENSE A MILLION	10	12/1	Trailer	77	67	51.0	62.2	47.7
8	TARA'S TALENT	8	4/1	Trailer	86	81	47.6	72.8	67.3
5	PEACHY WEACHY	5	10/1	Trailer	85	80	37.6	66.0	56.0
2	TAKE IT TO THE MAX	2	10/1	Trailer	74	62	30.8	58.8	44.3
1	PEACELOVENKARMA	1	12/1	Trailer	80	71	9.8	68.8	57.3
9	TURN ON THE CHARM	9	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	78	68	58.4	67.6	58.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $4,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 12:40
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HEAVENLY VIOLET is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HEAVENLY VIOLET: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	HEAVENLY VIOLET	6/5	6/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	HEAVENLY VIOLET	2	6/5	Front-runner	65	59	88.0	46.0	43.0
5	LA DELHOMME'S SHOW	5	6/1	Stalker	52	41	55.0	43.2	39.7
3	CORY LOVES RAIN	3	4/1	Trailer	47	32	32.0	37.2	31.2
1	STORM CENT	1	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	20.7	14.9	6.9
4	MIGHTY GYPSY	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 6 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 KHAIKY'S COMMAND 2/1
# 5 STAND TO 4/1
# 4 TAINO HOUSE 5/1

KHAIKY'S COMMAND is my choice. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this animal look very good in this race. Trainer has strong win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface. Looks solid versus this group and should be one of the front-runners. STAND TO - He has been racing quite well as of late while recording solid Equibase speed figs. Lucarelli has a very solid win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. TAINO HOUSE - Has posted reliable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this gelding.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,200 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#1 COURTING WAR (ML=5/2)
#8 CHERU (ML=8/5)


COURTING WAR - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last out at Turfway Park. CHERU - Taking a big drop in class rating points from her January 18th race at Gulfstream Park. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. This filly garnered a strong speed rating of 72 in her last race. That speed fig should be lofty enough to win this time out. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a solid contest in the last race within the last 30 days. Ranked numero uno in earnings per race. Another confirmation that this horse is the class of the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HEART OF THE BEAST (ML=5/1), #7 BROADWAY CHARM (ML=6/1), #6 ZIPSY ROSE LEE (ML=8/1),

HEART OF THE BEAST - Didn't meet expectations when favored the last two times. BROADWAY CHARM - When examining today's class rating, she will have to garner a much better speed figure than in the last race to battle in this dirt route. ZIPSY ROSE LEE - The result of third in the last affair shows me that this horse may be getting out of condition. This thoroughbred likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Don't play in the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 COURTING WAR on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 JESSCHEERFORBLUE 2/1
# 1 FASTDASH PILOT 8/1
# 3 ZEVI BLUE 7/2

I've got to go with JESSCHEERFORBLUE. His 70 average has this gelding with among the best speed figures in this race. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this gelding. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in longer quarter horse races make this pony a solid choice. FASTDASH PILOT - This gelding looks like a live longshot. Last time out, this gelding faced a stronger bunch. ZEVI BLUE - Going in a longer quarter horse race gives this gelding a solid shot. Urieta will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out quickly here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#7 VANISHING FAITH (ML=6/1)
#4 ANNETTE MARIE (ML=12/1)


VANISHING FAITH - Taking a big drop in class rating points from her Jan 24th race at Penn National. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. Sub-par effort last race out at Penn National was due to the off-going (she ran seventh). Will do better today on a fast track. ANNETTE MARIE - Don't often see a profitable ROI like +111. This jockey/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TAKE CHARGE ERICA (ML=7/2), #8 MAZAL EIGHTEEN (ML=9/2), #12 RISQUE'S JEWEL (ML=5/1),

TAKE CHARGE ERICA - The result of sixth in the last race shows me that this horse may be going off form. Today's contest is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the best of omens. Unlikely that the fig she earned on January 2nd will be enough in this event. MAZAL EIGHTEEN - Hard to wager on at 9/2 odds after the last two outings. This mare is always in the money, but just doesn't finish on top. Hard to invest in her on the front end. RISQUE'S JEWEL - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as regularly as this thoroughbred does. Improbable that the fig she recorded on December 22nd will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 VANISHING FAITH is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip