3-15-09

**Mr. IWS** · 03-15-2009, 09:32 AM

Re: 3-15-09

ChicagoSportsConnection

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CSC NBA
UNDER 187...Portland @ Atlanta............1:05 EDT

ATL......5 of L6 opponents @ home have scored 87 or less
............all six have scored 93 or less

Game tips @ 10:00 AM Portland time

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:20 AM

Re: 3-15-09

SmashYourBook

Mississippi State
Florida State
Ohio State

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:20 AM

Re: 3-15-09

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)

(22) Florida State (25-8, 18-8-1 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)

Florida State advanced to its first ever ACC tournament championship game by upsetting top-seeded and No. 1-ranked North Carolina 73-70 as a nine-point underdog at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. Toney Douglas had a game-high 27 points for the Seminoles, who shot 49 percent from the field and held the Tar Heels to 37.3 percent. Florida State snapped an 11-game losing skid to North Carolina and ended the Tar Heels’ two-year reign as tournament champs.

One day after barely staving off elimination with a 66-65 quarterfinals victory over Boston College as a 10-point chalk, Duke knocked out Maryland on Saturday, prevailing 67-61 but once again coming up short against the number, this time as a nine-point favorite. The Blue Devils advanced to the tourney championship game for the first time since winning the title in 2006 despite shooting just 36.4 percent overall, but they made 9 of 22 shots from the three-point arc (41 percent).

Prior to shocking North Carolina, the Seminoles eliminated Georgia Tech 64-62 in the semifinals, failing to cover as a five-point favorite. They’ve won three in a row and nine of their last 12, and they’re on a 13-5-1 ATS roll. Meanwhile, Duke has won seven of its last eight games – the only defeat coming a week ago today at North Carolina (79-71) – but it has followed up a three-game ATS winning streak by going 1-3 ATS in its last four (0-3 ATS as a favorite).

Duke swept the season series from Florida State, but the ‘Noles got the cash both times. The Blue Devils prevailed 66-58 in Tallahassee as a 9½-point favorite on Jan. 10, then barely held off the Seminoles at home two weeks ago, eking out an 84-81 win as a 12½-point chalk. Duke has won three in a row and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry, but Florida State has cashed eight times during this stretch, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, all from the underdog role.

The Seminoles carry a slew of positive ATS streaks into the championship game, including 22-9-2 overall, 6-1 at neutral sites, 16-5-2 in ACC action, 19-7-2 against winning teams and 15-4-1 as an underdog. Duke is on ATS slides of 10-22 at neutral venues and 1-5 the ACC tourney.

The under has been the play in 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the clash earlier this month at Duke went over the total. Additionally, the under for Florida State is on stretches of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 14-4-2 at neutral sites, 20-7-1 on Sunday and 10-2 against winning teams. Finally, Duke sports “under” streaks of 26-11 overall (5-1 last six), 17-5 in ACC play, 10-1 at neutral venues and 5-2 on Sunday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)

Ohio State (22-9, 16-11 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (23-9, 13-15 ATS)

Ohio State dominated top-seeded and seventh-ranked Michigan State in Saturday’s Big Ten tournament semifinals, rolling to an 82-70 victory as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse to reach the league championship game for the second time in three years. The Buckeyes shot a blistering 53.2 percent from the field, including making 9 of 16 three-point tries, and held Michigan State to 38 percent shooting (3-for-21 from long range) as they won their fourth in a row (3-1 ATS).

Purdue followed up Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State as an eight-point favorite with Saturday’s 66-56 win over Illinois as a 3½-point chalk. The Boilermakers, who led 37-17 at halftime, got 20 points from JaJuan Johnson and 19 from Robbie Hummel to make it to the title game for the first time in 11 years. Purdue’s two wins and covers in Indianapolis come on the heels of a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS slump

These teams split their season series, with the host winning each contest. The Buckeyes needed overtime for an 80-72 victory as a two-point home ‘dog, but Purdue got revenge in a big way three weeks later, rolling 75-50 as a 9½-point chalk. Ohio State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, including a 63-52 rout as a 6½-point favorite in the 2007 Big Ten tournament.

Ohio State, which won the tournament championship behind then-freshman Greg Oden in 2007, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in this event. Also, the Buckeyes, who won last year’s NIT, have won and covered seven straight postseason games, including Friday’s 61-57 upset victory over Wisconsin as a three-point ‘dog in the quarterfinals, and they’re on additional pointspread runs of 9-4 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 5-0 at neutral sites. However, OSU has failed to cash in seven of its last eight on Sunday.

Purdue, which had advanced past the first round of the Big Ten tournament just once in seven years prior to this season, is 4-5 ATS in its last nine tourney games and 3-5 ATS in its last eight at neutral sites.

The under is on runs of 4-1 for Ohio State overall (all in the Big Ten), 16-5 for Ohio State on Sunday, 5-1 for Purdue on Sunday and 4-1 in this rivalry. However, the Boilermakers have topped the total in both of their tournament games this weekend, making the over 7-1 in their last eight on neutral courts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER

SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)

Mississippi State (22-12, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)

Mississippi State knocked off SEC regular-season champion LSU 67-57 in Saturday’s tournament semifinals, prevailing as a four-point underdog to earn their first berth in the finals since 2003. The Bulldogs have won and covered five in a row and kept their postseason hopes alive despite making just 33 percent of their shots against the Tigers, including missing 13 of 16 tries from beyond the three-point line. However, Mississippi State held LSU to just 31 percent shooting and it went 24-for-35 from the foul line, while its opponent was 9-for-13 on free throws.

Tennessee routed Auburn 94-85 in Saturday’s other semifinal matchup, cashing as a 4½-point favorite just one day after pummeling Alabama 88-62 as an eight-point chalk. The Volunteers, who have reached the title game for the first time in 18 years, shot 62 percent from the field and 58 percent from beyond the arc in crushing Auburn. The Vols have won five of their last six, and they’ve followed an 0-3 ATS stretch by cashing in four of their last five.

These teams faced off on Feb. 25 in Knoxville, Tenn., and the Vols scored an 81-76 victory but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. Tennessee has won five in a row in this series (4-1 ATS).

Prior to this weekend, Mississippi State had been in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump in the SEC tournament since losing to Kentucky in 2003 finals. In addition to knocking off LSU yesterday, the Bulldogs beat Georgia 79-60 as a nine-point favorite Thursday and routed South Carolina 82-68 as a 2½-point pup Friday.

In addition to cashing in its last five games, Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 ATS in its last four against winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five at neutral sites, but 3-6 ATS in its last nine SEC tourney tilts. Also, the Vols haven’t covered in three straight games all season.

Tennessee entered this tournament on a 12-3 “under” streak (11-3 in SEC play), but it has topped the total in its two games this weekend. Mississippi State is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0 on Sunday and 23-9-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

NBA

Dallas (40-26, 32-34 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (52-13, 34-31 ATS)

After two days off, the Lakers will try to complete a Texas trifecta when they host the Mavericks inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles scored back-to-back wins and covers in Texas last week, winning at Houston 102-96 as a 3½-point ‘dog Wednesday and then getting a 102-95 victory in San Antonio the following night as a three-point pup. The Lakers are 29-4 at home this season, but just 16-17 ATS.

The Mavericks had their three-game winning streak snapped Friday night in Oakland when they fell to Golden State 119-110 as a 1½-point favorite. The 119 points was the most Dallas has allowed since Jan. 25 when it got smoked in Boston 124-100 as a nine-point pup.

The Lakers have dominated this rivalry lately, winning five straight (2-3 ATS), including both meetings this season. On Nov. 11, Los Angeles got a 106-99 win in Dallas as a 5½-point chalk and then scored a 114-107 home win on Nov. 28 but came up short as a 10½-point favorite. The visitor is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in this series, and the Mavs have gotten the cash in their last four visits to the Staples Center.

Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight roadies overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a pup, but it is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Pacific Division squads. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 after getting two days off and 6-2 against Southwest Division teams.

The Mavs have topped the total in seven of 10 overall, but otherwise it’s been all “unders” for Dallas, including 7-2 on the road, 17-6 on Sundays and 7-1 as an underdog. For Los Angeles, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 on Sundays and 4-0 at home against teams with losing road records. However in this rivalry, the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes overall and 6-2 in the last eight in Hollywood.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Utah (41-25, 35-31 ATS) at Orlando (48-17, 41-23-1 ATS)

The Jazz don’t have much time to recover after a triple-overtime loss in Miami Saturday, heading up the Florida coast to Amway Arena in Orlando to take on the Magic.

Utah has followed up a 12-game winning streak (9-3 ATS) with back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks, including Saturday’s heartbreaking 140-129 setback in Miami in three overtimes, failing as a two-point chalk. Including Wednesday’s 100-93 loss in Atlanta as a 1½-point underdog, the Jazz are just 13-19 SU (15-17 ATS) on the highway this season.

Orlando has won six of seven overall (5-2 ATS), most recently knocking off Washington 112-103 Friday, getting the cash as a 7½-point favorite. The Magic have been tough defensively, allowing just 92.2 points a game over the last five, and they surrender just 91.8 ppg at home this season.

The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in this series dating back to 2004 and they scored a 103-94 victory in Utah on Dec. 13, pulling off the upset as a 7½-point underdogs However, last season in Orlando, the Jazz prevailed 113-94 as four-point underdogs. The pup has cashed in five straight meetings, with the visitor getting the money in four of those five. Finally, prior to last year, the Magic had covered four straight against Utah at Amway Arena.

Utah is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 4-2 in its last six on the road, but the Jazz are on ATS slides of 2-5 against the Southeast Division, 2-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 2-7 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Orlando is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16 overall, 20-6 against the Western Conference, 5-0 on Sundays, 6-1 after one day off and 4-1 against Northwest Division teams.

For the Jazz, the under is 6-2 in their last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five on Sunday and 4-2 in their last six against teams from the Eastern Conference, but the over has been the play in seven of their last 10 on the second day of a back-to-back. Orlando is on “under” streaks of 15-7 at home, 5-2 against Western Conference teams and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five matchups in this series.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:21 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#873 - NBA - 3 units on Portland +4.5
#894 - NCAA - 3 units on Duke -6
#900 - NCAA - 3 units on Stephen Austin -6.5

**Mr. IWS** · 03-15-2009, 10:46 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Paul Leiner 0-3 for minus 900 stars yest.

500* NBA Over 211 LAL/Dal

100* CBB Duke -5.5

50* CBB Tennessee -5

25* CBB Ohio State +6.5

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:51 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Ross Benjamin CBB Conference Tournament Game of the Year
vs. (Jan 1 12:00 AM)

Mississippi St. vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee –4.5

Any conference tournament neutral site favorite of 14.5 or less that is coming off of BB neutral site favorite ATS wins, they scored 74 points or more in their previous game, they are a #2 seed or lower, versus an opponent that is coming off of a neutral site SU underdog win, and is a #3 seed or lower is 10-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The favorite has won those 10 games by an average of 13.6 points per game.

Any conference tournament neutral site favorite that is facing an opponent playing their 4th game in 4 days, they are 3-0 SU&ATS in the previous 4 games, and they covered their previous game by 6.0 points or more is 0-11 SU&ATS since 1990. Play on Tennessee minus the points as my College Basketball Conference Tournament Game of the Year.

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:52 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Johnny Guild

Sunday, March 15, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Portland Trail Blazers (41-24) at Atlanta Hawks (38-28)
Portland Trail Blazers have won six of their last eight games and have taken 13 of the last 14 clashes against the Atlanta Hawks, including six straight in Atlanta. However, the Blazers road struggles continue. Portland has lost six of their last 7 games on the road, going 2-5 ATS and is just 13-18 away from home this season. Contrary, the Hawks have won six of its last seven games at home, going 7-0 ATS. Take the Hawks on their home court to finally win a hard fought clash against the road struggling Blazers.

Atlanta Hawks -4

Conference Tournament
Ohio St. Buckeyes +6.5

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:52 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Gina

Sunday, March 15th, 2009 3:30 p.m. est.

Dallas Mavericks (40-26) at Los Angeles Lakers (52-13)
The Lakers should have no problem against the Mavericks tonight at the Staples Center. Los Angeles has won 22 their last 25 games at home versus Dallas, but they haven’t beaten them by double digits in the last ten battles. Take the points! The Mavericks have covered the spread in the last four contests versus the Lakers in Los Angeles and the road team in this series is 6-0-1 ATS.

Dallas Mavericks +9½

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 10:58 AM

Re: 3-15-09

IC

7 Unit Play. #893. Take FSU +6 over Duke (Sunday @ 1pm est). To give you a preface, this is just my 2nd 7* Selection of my lifetime. I don't make over 5* plays very often and the first 7* Selection I made was when the 49ers defeated the Redskins in my NFL GOY by the hook -2.5. That game was a tight cover and hopefull this one will not be as tight. This is also the first selection over 5* I've made in Basketball this year overall. I like FSU a great deal today. This is not to take anything away from Coach Mike and the Blue Devils. Look, I respect anyone who works hard, has discipline and instills good values in anybody. Mike K. is one of the best ever had it and you have to admire him for that. But, that does not mean that Duke is not vulnerable and that does not mean they cover this spread, and that does not even mean they win this contest today. But, Leonard Hamilton, the head coach of FSU is a stud. His players play for him with incredible loyalty and I've watched his career over the past few years and it has only flourished. Did you know Hamilton is one of the seven all time winningest Coaches in the ACC? How about the fact he has won over 300 games since January 23rd of 2008 when he reached this milestone when his team defeated Virginia? How about the fact the Seminoles have won 19 straight games the last three years which had not been done since the 91'-93' season. Plus, this year, the Seminoles defeating Flordida has allowed FSU to defeat a ranked opponent for six straight years. Did you know whow as the ACC leader in FT percentage last year - try FSU. This year, nothing has changed. This year FSU shoots 72.5% from the charity stripe - while Duke shoots 72%. Are you surprised yet? I say all this to state that FSU being here is not a fluke. This team has every right to be here. They have earned it. We hear so much about Duke and the national media giving Coach Mike K a "b-job" in the news reel, quality coaches such as Leonard Hamilton and the work he has done goes unnoticed. But, I'm glad it gets unnoticed. This is because we get Hamilton and the Seminoles as +6 point dogs for this very reason. FSU lost to Duke earlier this year at home 58-66 - where they covered as 9.5 home dogs. Then, this team went on the road to Duke in a revenge game where they were dogged by 12.5 points and lost 81-84. Let me take you through that game - it was a game that FSU was actually leading at halftime 40-34. Despite scoring 41 points in the second half, Duke was able to score 50 due to the help of the Zebras and went to the stripe a total of 31 times to FSU's 20 times. I don't see that happening today. FSU did not shoot all that well from the charity striple from that game going 13 for 20 (65%) which is a bit uncharacteristic wihle Duke hit its usual 71% from the line at home. However, this game is different. Duke does not have the friendly confines of Cameron. This team struggled against Maryland until the 10 minute mark of the second half when they finally started to pull away. Until then, Maryland and their limited scoring were able to hang tough. Well, FSU has more than Vasquez as a scoring option as compared to Maryland. FSU has the likes of Echefu, Alabi, Toney Douglas and Derwin Kitchen. I also want to point out that I FSU is strong on the boards having out rebounded Hansborough and UNC 35-34 and FSU had outrebounded Duke in Cameron in their las meeting 39-35. This is because FSU is a bit a leaner and they have the size down low which Duke gives up a bit as they only have Singler who is of relative decent size along with Henderson. I expect Schyer to get taken off the dribble as if Jon was having trouble covering backup point guard Hayes of Maryland - he is going to have his work cutout for him against a very athletic core group of FSU point guards. FSU is well coached, they are disciplined, I expect them to drive hard and often to the hoop and get to the line consequently. I expect FSU to shoot better from the line, and to win the battle of the boards once again. I respect Duke, but Hamilton will have his boys ready to play. I will gladly take the 6 points here, but I don't believe it will be necessary. FSU covered the 9.5 at home this year, they covered the 12.5 on the road this year losing by just 3 in Cameron, and they can certainly win Outright in Hotlanta without the points - but the 6 is nice. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS as an Underdog on neutral sites, 9-2-1 ATS as Underdogs of 0 to 6.5 points and Duke is just 3-7 ATS over their last contests. Besides, I'm an Indian Cowboy, the Seminoles will come through for me. I will be at this game - look for the brown fella' with the cowboy hat.

3 Unit Play. #897. Take Ohio State +6.5 over Purdue (Sunday @ 3:30pm est). I'm no Ohio State fan and my long-term clients no that. But, they are in a good spot today and I have to respect that. I watched the game when these two teams met the last time at Purdue and Ohio State was a debacle. They were horrible in that contest. If I can remember details about that game, you don't think these guys will? Ohio State travels well as they should have their fan base at this game and this program would love nothing more than to win the Big10 Tourney in front of their fan base in what has been a lackluster basketball year. But, Ohio State has truly earned a right of passage to this game. They have defeated a Wisconsin team that might have been playing its best basketball coming into the tourney and took care of a very good Michigan State team. Purdue did defeat a solid Penn State and man-handled an Illinois team - but don't forget, Illinois did not have Frasier in that game. I like the fact Purdue looked so dominant over Illinois - b/c that is not reality. After all, people forget, Illinois beat this Purdue team twice this year - once on the road in OT and then hammered them at home in Illinois - both games with Frasier. And, Ohio Staet lose to tihs team by 25 at in Purdue but also beat them in OT this year as well at home. The 6.5 points is nice here and there is a solid shot that Ohio State can win this game outright, I'll take the 6.5 here as Ohio State is playing decent basketball, has revenge, and in what might be a low scoring contest, the 6.5 is fine by me. Look, the Buckeyes are in the same spot as Purdue was in their last game was Illinois. They have lost to this Purdue team twice - just like Purdue had lost to Illinois twice. You don't think Ohio State is going to be fired up for this game. Look for the Buckeyes to play spirited basketball today and in the waning moments to make a run at this baby for the Outright.

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 11:07 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Winner Line-Memphis
OTM-OVER Utah
Doug Sanders-Miami
Kevin Kennedy-New Jersey Nets

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 11:15 AM

Re: 3-15-09

GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - March 15, 2009

Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NBA Basketball

Game: 3:30PM Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line: -9

Over/Under: 211.5

Reason: The fans at STAPLES Center will be treated to a game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers when they take their seats on Sunday.

Oddsmakers currently have the Lakers listed as 9-point favorites versus the Mavericks, while the game's total is sitting at 211½.

Dirk Nowitzki led the way for Dallas with 27 points and nine boards in its 119-110 loss to Golden State on Friday night.

Golden State covered as 1-point home favorites as the game played over the 223-point total posted by sportsbooks.

Pau Gasol went for 23 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Lakers over the Spurs 102-95 on Thursday night.

Los Angeles cashed as 1.5-point road underdogs as the teams played over the 196-point total listed by oddsmakers.

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 11:17 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Mr A

Detroit Pistons -8½
Cleveland Cavaliers -10

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 11:30 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Master Sports
4'* Duke
4* Milw
4* Wash
3* Pistons
3* Over Orlando

Burns
Duke
Milw
Under Lakers

**Guest** · 03-15-2009, 11:33 AM

Re: 3-15-09

Kelso

25 each on Purdue, Fla St and Tenn and the incumbent parlay.
Web site singing praises on yesterday tourney when in actuality he was loser on 25 unit, 1-1 on 10 units and 2-2 on 5 units or less. Guide your bets accordingly today

3-15-09

3-15-09

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