Saturday 10/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:07pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#4 MAN O ROSE (ML=5/2)
#7 CITY OF ANGELS (ML=4/1)


MAN O ROSE - The rider/trainer tandem of Maldonado and Mullins has a strong ROI together. Speed figs on the turf point to this animal as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. Sneaky speed on this one. He'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then crush them down the stretch. I like that last contest on Sep 29th at Santa Anita where he ran second. CITY OF ANGELS - This is this gelding's first try on the grass. Ran well finishing second on September 3rd. The track was slow that day, so I think this animal will take to the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ANTIBES (ML=3/1), #3 ON THE WHIM (ML=4/1), #6 HILL SIXTEEN (ML=6/1),

ANTIBES - I foretell disappointment for this equine in this event. ON THE WHIM - Most likely won't make much of a mark this time around. HILL SIXTEEN - Don't figure that this entrant is worth 6/1 in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MAN O ROSE - His TrackMaster turf figure is tops among these horses. This gelding deserves your wager.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 MAN O ROSE on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 7 with [3,6,9] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
4	4	TIDE HAS TURNED	3/2	Merriman, Aaron - 24	507.84
2	2	I FEAR NOTHING	7/2	Davis, Billy Jr - 15	468.84
1	1	HONEST NATION	10/1	Lems, Chris - 11	454.97
8	8	DRAGON GRAD	20/1	Hanners, Austin - 13	446.83
3	3	DRAGON ATTACK	5/1	Kash, Keith Jr - 6	445.50
9	9	LOSTTHATLOVINFEELN	5/1	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 28	440.00
7	7	MASTER CONFECTION	20/1	Thompson, Jason - 7	432.47
5	5	SEASAR L	20/1	Grismore, Greg - 6	398.89
6	6	CROSSWINDS BOBBY B	20/1	Nisonger, Jeff - 20	396.87

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 10:39 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 47 - Purse:$5500 - FILLIES & MARES NW OF 3 RACES OR NW 17,000 LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 SHORT SELL HANOVER 5/2
# 7 MISS LUCY LU 15/1
# 8 CENALTA FLASH 10/1

SHORT SELL HANOVER sure does look ready to take the whole enchilada. Feel the need for speed, this entrant has been turning in some fantastic TrackMaster SRs averaging around 55. Seems to have a formidable class advantage based on the starters she has faced. MISS LUCY LU - Horse looks well spotted here, and Brown has a formidable ROI when his starters go down in class. Have to favor a entrant coming out of the Century Mile 7 post. The return on investment is excellent. CENALTA FLASH - This mare has been battling against some of the most competitive company in this bunch in recent times.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
7	7	JOEMIKIYOURSOFINE	3/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 18	528.19
1	1	PACINO HANOVER	5/2	Napolitano, Anthony - 16	525.04
4	4	SIR ISSAC NEWTON	9/2	Kakaley, Matt - 21	523.06
3	3	HOUND ON THE BEACH	8/1	Warren, Ridge - 9	499.04
6	6	BINGE ON YANKEE	7/2	Allard, Simon - 14	483.95
2	2	NOLAUGHINGSTOCK	6/1	Buter, Tyler - 16	473.89
5	5	GINO SNIPER	12/1	Boyd, Braxten - 14	469.56

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 5:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$7500 - C& G - 4-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 1 EXT. P-M RACE OR $15,000 LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 GATOR AT THE WELL 9/2
# 4 SAND DOLLAR 8/5
# 5 GENERATION LUCKY 8/1

GATOR AT THE WELL is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the wagering panel. This race could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed rating will prove that. The 73 average class figure may give this gelding a distinct edge in the field of horses. Many handicappers will recognize the great TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this group of horses. SAND DOLLAR - This interesting entrant earned a very nice TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. Looks sharp to come right back. Extremely profitable driver-trainer combination, with a 24 ROI when working together. GENERATION LUCKY - Can't overlook based on TrackMaster speed figs which have been stellar (68 avg) most recently. This entrant will be greatly helped with Beckwith driving. 21 percent winners this last month.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 11:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$8000 - N/W $2,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 STRETCH THE LINE 8/1
# 4 ROLLWITHPAPAJOE 10/1
# 5 HOPNROLL HEAVEN 5/1

STRETCH THE LINE will not be denied the score in here and the big morning line could mean a big score. Overall stats look very good. Can't throw him out of the picture. ROLLWITHPAPAJOE - The brain trust always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning rate is confirmation of that. Have to make Bongiorno the wager here if only for the last thirty days win clip. Big chance for the victory.HOPNROLL HEAVEN - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the bike one of the top drivers in win percentage the past month. Driver/trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this gelding breaking away from the grouping.

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at North Side Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 1:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 63 - Purse:$1000 - NON WINNERS $201 L5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 COWBOY GILLES 3/1
# 1 MS PATRICIA BEA 5/2
# 5 ARTICULATE BARB 7/2

After thorough analysis by the consortium, COWBOY GILLES comes out as the top pick. Many bettors know speed is is such an important factor. This fine animal has credentials with a 66 average stat. Good for a win bet just off the outstanding prior class markings. Have to like this interesting entrant. Should be considered this time if only for the competitive TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the most recent outing. MS PATRICIA BEA - Not many folks know, but the 1 post here at North Side Downs has been outstanding for an above average win percent. Is a very compelling win contender given the 58 speed fig from her most recent outing.ARTICULATE BARB - Has very nice speed figures and very likely has to be considered for a wager here. The 67 average class number may give this mare a distinct advantage in the bunch.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
4	4	OKIE FROM MUSKOGEE	5/2	Hennessey, Wally - 17	470.53
2	2	INITIAL CONCEPT	9/2	Devaux, Jim - 19	468.16
1	1	NORTHERN VIRGIN	7/5	Long, Chris - 10	453.08
5	5	DRAWING DRAGONS	10/1	Sowers, Mcgwire - 7	444.51
9	9	LUCKY SPORT	6/1	Athearn, Matthew - 11	443.16
3	3	SEARCH THE SEA	12/1	Cross, Brian - 6	412.02
8	8	BARNARD HANOVER	25/1	Beckwith, Brett - 16	388.80
6	6	BET ON JACK	20/1	Fluet, Phil - 10	379.47
7	7	MR BIG LOAD	15/1	Randall, Jay - 18	334.00

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 21

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	5 Mac Daddy Too 3 Vulcan 4 Cold as Hell	3 Vulcan 5 Mac Daddy Too 4 Cold as Hell	3 Vulcan 5 Mac Daddy Too 4 Cold as Hell	3 Vulcan 4 Cold as Hell 5 Mac Daddy Too	7 Thealligatorhunter 3 Vulcan 5 Mac Daddy Too
2	5 Dancing Nancy 7 Red Sun Dress 3 Ready for Trouble	12 Carpe Ostento (GB) 5 Dancing Nancy 7 Red Sun Dress	5 Dancing Nancy 4 Fasta Lavista Baby 3 Ready for Trouble	3 Ready for Trouble 5 Dancing Nancy 12 Carpe Ostento (GB)	9 Lindsey 5 Dancing Nancy 3 Ready for Trouble
3	7 Bourbon Fever 12 Back to Reality 2 Kingmaker	7 Bourbon Fever 4 Spanish Doubloon 2 Kingmaker	7 Bourbon Fever 12 Back to Reality 8 Colonel Barton	2 Kingmaker 1 Charted 7 Bourbon Fever	2 Kingmaker 7 Bourbon Fever 12 Back to Reality
4	2 Oeuvre 4 Adaay In Asia (GB) 8 Viareggio (IRE)	8 Viareggio (IRE) 3 Sweet Dani Girl 2 Oeuvre	8 Viareggio (IRE) 4 Adaay In Asia (GB) 6 Lady Hideaway	2 Oeuvre 4 Adaay In Asia (GB) 8 Viareggio (IRE)	2 Oeuvre 8 Viareggio (IRE) 3 Sweet Dani Girl
5	8 Denim and Pearls 1 Bedazzle 'Em 6 Aunt Fannie	8 Denim and Pearls 2 Best of All 3 Irina's Charm	8 Denim and Pearls 6 Aunt Fannie 1 Bedazzle 'Em	9 Sweet Gal of Mine 8 Denim and Pearls 2 Best of All	8 Denim and Pearls 3 Irina's Charm 6 Aunt Fannie
6	5 Dr. Venkman 1 Verifying 2 Confidence Game	5 Dr. Venkman 1 Verifying 4 Raise Cain	1 Verifying 3 Post Time 5 Dr. Venkman	4 Raise Cain 1 Verifying 3 Post Time	4 Raise Cain 1 Verifying 5 Dr. Venkman
7	9 Furious Anger 6 Ben Franklin 8 Mount Craig	3 Dissolved 2 Single Dot Yaht 6 Ben Franklin	5 Malibu Springs 9 Furious Anger 11 Alexander Helios	5 Malibu Springs 6 Ben Franklin 8 Mount Craig	9 Furious Anger 6 Ben Franklin 8 Mount Craig
8	9 Haughty 1 Lovely Princess 7 Sinfiltre	9 Haughty 10 Walkathon 1 Lovely Princess	9 Haughty 7 Sinfiltre 10 Walkathon	7 Sinfiltre 11 Fancy Martini 5 Poca Mucha	1 Lovely Princess 10 Walkathon 7 Sinfiltre
9	8 Lady Radler 7 Alva Starr 9 Ancient Peace	6 Dazzling Blue 7 Alva Starr 4 Vahva	4 Vahva 7 Alva Starr 6 Dazzling Blue	4 Vahva 8 Lady Radler 7 Alva Starr	7 Alva Starr 4 Vahva 2 Simply Stated
10	5 Axthelm 11 Fauci 10 Gregory's Pride	5 Axthelm 7 B D Valeski 10 Gregory's Pride	4 Zatip 10 Gregory's Pride 5 Axthelm	10 Gregory's Pride 7 B D Valeski 11 Fauci	11 Fauci 8 Counterstrike 5 Axthelm

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Lexus Raven Run Stakes Saturday at Keeneland!

1st Race
5-3-4

#5 Mac Daddy Too drops in class and comes in with top form. Should be very tough today. #3 Vulcan also drops and makes sense here. #4 Cold as Hell is a two-time winner on wet track conditions. In fact, his last three races have all been on wet surfaces down at Oaklawn but it's been a while since he's raced. Over seven months since his last run.



2nd Race
5-7-3

#5 Dancing Nancy takes a huge drop-down in class today and should respond with the top effort. #7 Red Sun Dress makes the same move and should move forward with the drop. Ready for Trouble is by World of Trouble who is the first crop stallion that has had only three horses run on off tracks to date but two of them have won it's not a big sample size but there's success there in the breeding.


3rd Race
7-12-2

#7 Bourbon Fever looks as though it's his turn at this level to breakthrough with a maiden breaking score. #12 Back to Reality also, wouldn't be a shock and drawn outside. I don't think it's a bad thing today. #2 Kingmaker will be the heavy favorite, but hasn't raced in nine months and takes an enormous drop down in class.


4th Race
2-4-8

#2 Oeuvre has won 13 races from 21 starts. Should be tested as she stretches out to a mile but her trainer has always wanted to do this and says he's hoping it can give them options on down the line. If she's ever capable of doing it will be today. #4 Adaay in Asia it is already proven out a mile showing she's more than capable last time out but she'll have to catch the number two horse. #8 Viareggio cuts back in distance, and I wonder if this is too short of a race war but she is a good racehorse and deserves respect.



5th Race
8-1-6

#8 Denim and Pearls is a full sister to a grade 3 winner named, Newgate. She should be tougher here and we'll get bet down. #1 Bedazzle ‘Em it's also bred to win early and should be respected today. #6 Aunt Fannie is a half sister to some very good runners and another one that needs to be respected.


6th Race
5-1-2

#5 Dr. Venkman comes in from Southern California, where he has dazzled into starts. He looks like he could be a very special horse, and today will be a good litmus test for him. I think he's more than capable of doing it based on the way he won at Delmar in his two starts going two for two. #1 Verifying is the most proven commodity in this race, and will be the favorite and rightfully deserves to be. He remains at a sprint distance and consecutive races for the first time in his career, and that may turn out to be his best scenario, but this is not an easy post position to take plenty of pressure from that inside post. #2 Confidence Game cuts back in and has been a good horse earning over $780,000 in earnings in his career.


7th Race
9-6-2

#9 Furious Anger was the beaten favored in his most recent start, but still ran well. Should take a step forward today going two turns for the first time. #6 Ben Franklin is another one stretching out to a ground. For the first time it looks like he could improve because of it based on breeding and his style he displayed in his only start whilst sprinting. #2 Single Dot Yaht has to contend with these horses that look like they're on their improve, but he's shown some ability and has to be respected in the top three at the very least.


8th Race
9-1-7

#9 Haughty has been a very good Philly throughout her career and get some class relief today. Expect her Price to come down versus this group. #1 Lovely Princess has also done very well Rueter career as of late and against steaks company. I would expect her to continue to run very well coming into the spot for Trainer Kenny McPeek. #7 Sinfiltre is a course winner at Keeneland and also exits good races as of late.


9th Race
8-7-9

#8 Lady Radler used to be able to relax the way that she did in her most recent win at Churchill in grade 3 company and if she does she's more than capable of winning at a solid price today probably in the 6/1 range. #7 Alva Starr is the speediest Philly in this race and will be the favorite. It's just a matter if she can hold off those that will be closing in this featured event. #9 Ancient Piece cut back in distance, and that makes her a danger as she will sprint for the first time in her career and horses doing that for the first time, either in their career or in a while, or always dangerous, especially when they show speed like this horse has in further distance races.


10th Race
5-11-10

#5 Axthelm gets a good post today and Louie Saez in the saddle. #11 Fauci Dr. far outside with his closing style which is not the worst. Has to be respected today. #10 Gregory’s Pride has a win at Keeneland coming from off the pace and will definitely outrun the odds placed on him on the morning line of 10/1 and absolutely is good enough to win this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 21, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Three-year-old sprinters share the spotlight today in the Perryville Stakes and Grade 2 Raven Run. We’ll see how the track plays while drying out Saturday compared to the slopfest Friday that produced 9 of 10 winners within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead throughout. It was our best handicapping day of the meet with 6 winners on top and 3 more second choices hitting the winners’ circle. Fingers crossed for more.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three will be offered on Races 4,8,10.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Friday’s wet conditions are to give way to a mostly sunny Saturday with temps in the high 60s. The turf course should have some give in it after prior rains, but hopeful we can get back on the grass after being off Friday.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Upper-level claimers at the $62,500 level start the early pick 5 at 6 furlongs. Favorites are 11-22 in claiming races at the current meet (15-22 in the exacta) coming into Saturday. We’ve had 17 such dirt claimers for $50K or higher in open conditions in Fall Meets with very few discernible trends appearing. Earlier this meet, Armando Hernandez popped a 16-1 upset in a similar spot with Lucky Boss, and yesterday that barn added another winner at the meet to go 2-for-2 to date. He’ll counter with Comiskey Park via Illinois. Early speed is definitely the preferred profile at this class/trip and most of the key contenders on paper here have it. Chris Hartman has 4 wins at the meet, all in claiming or maiden claiming races, and looks to add with Vulvan. Francisco Arrieta partnered on a pair of the previous Hartman scores. Cold as Hell can give Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas his first Keeneland win since Fall 2021 and just his second since 2019.


2nd Race
Maiden claiming 2-year-olds match up at 6 furlongs to open the early pick 4. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to Ready for Trouble (for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 MCL wins at the meet), Fasta Lavista Baby, Red Sun Dress, Wreck It Ruby and Loveya Loveya More. But it’s Saratoga-repped class dropper Dancing Nancy who catches the eye after a fourth-place finish behind Candied, who since has come here to win the Grade 2 Alcibiades Stakes on opening day. She’s trained by Chad Brown, rarely seen here in MCL races, but a winner earlier this meet with St. Benedict’s Prep at 3-1 odds. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile.The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed.


3rd Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs in this one. Churchill preppers have won 6 of the first 13 MCL races at this meet, so give extra looks to Spanish Doubloon, Solevo, Bourbon Fever, Colonel Barton and Back to Reality (for a Chris Hartman barn with 2 MCL wins at the meet) from the main body of the field. Six of 8 MCL races this meet in the sprint ranks have been won by horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. The average winner in all Fall Meets on dirt at 6F is just .60 lengths behind at that juncture; think speed.


4th Race
Allowance turf milers kick off the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 today. Favorites are just 1-8 in turf miles at the current meet and we’ve seen 3 winners go off 10-1 or more. Only 1 winner led at the half-mile point and the average winner has been 2-1/2 lengths back at that juncture. This race looks to have an exceptionally fast pace on paper, furthering the desire to find a closer to match the trends. Five of eight turf mile winners at the meet came via Kentucky Downs (as have 6 of the 12 turf ALW winners so far), good news for Do You Love Me, Oeuvre and Viareggio. The latter was a stalking turf winner here in the Spring Meet and has European experience and pedigree that should appreciate the likely softer footing from Friday’s rains. Adaay in Asia makes a similar case and brings a rallying style from New York.


5th Race
The Saturday pick 6 begins with a 2-year-old maiden special on dirt at 6-1/2 furlongs. Favorites are 4-11 at the current meet after the chalk won Thursday’s 2YO MSW dirt offering with only 1 winner topping 6-1 odds. Five first-time starters lead the way, followed by 3 Churchill preppers, with those 2 lead-ins traditionally exceptionally strong in these races at Kee in Fall. I’ll lean to rookies in here because the Churchill alumni mostly come from a common race in which 6 horses finishing within 2-1/2 lengths at the wire in a modest 1:11 for 6 furlongs. Gotta think the rookies have more to offer. Aunt Fannie is half-sister to stars Four Graces and McCracken for Whitham Thoroughbreds’ breeding operation. Bedazzle ‘Em is a half-sister to last year’s debut winner and next-out Schuylerville winner Just Cindy. Veteran top Kee dirt sires Candy Ride (Best of All) and Denim and Pearls (Into Mischief) are well-represented. Brad Cox and Wesley Ward are the only trainers with 2 wins at the meet with 2YO dirt MSWs; Ward is absent here, but Cox saddles Denim and Pearls.


6th Race
The co-featured $250,000 Perryville Stakes is next at 7 furlongs and begins the late pick 5. This is the third year back for the Perryville as a regular part of the Fall Meet schedule. Both winners came via 7-furlong preps at Churchill, including top-class Gunite a year ago. This year’s CD cast includes Grade 2 Rebel winner and Kentucky Derby layoff type Confidence Game as well as the recently stakes-placed Loyal Company. Brad Cox won the Perryville 2 years ago and he’ll look to regain the crown with potential lone speed Verifying from the rail. Verifying was a neck runner-up in this year’s Blue Grass Stakes to Tapit Trice and went on to win the Indiana Derby. Of the 42 Kee dirt stakes at 7F in our database, 30 of the winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Only 7 closed more than 5 lengths at that point. And only 3 winners turned back from a two-turn route like Confidence Game and Raise Cain attempt. From a pure visual standpoint, I have been highly impressed with Maryland invader Post Time throughout his brief career.


7th Race
The late pick 4 opener is a 1-1/16 miles maiden special weight for elders. We’ve had 21 such races for this age, class and route dirt performers in Fall Meets with an average winner just 7-2 odds. No winner has topped 8-1 odds. Sixteen of 21 winners were within 3 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile (average winner 2-1/2 lengths back at that point), while only 3 led early. Churchill produced 11 winners, almost doubling NYRA (Sar/Bel/Aqu) with 6. Lean to those with a mile or longer last prep, responsible for 18 of 21 winners. Pedigree notables here include longshots Game Keeper and Alexander Helios, by solid Kee dirt route influences Honor Code and Cairo Prince.


8th Race
Turf route allowance performers comprise the middle leg of today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. Kentucky Downs preppers have won 6 of the 12 turf ALW races at the current meet and we’ve got a half-dozen such options in this spot. Horses adding distance have won 4 of the 5 turf ALW races at this trip during the current meet, and the average winner has been 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile. A KD closer who’s adding distance squares up nicely with Poca Mucha, Seisa, Walkathon and Haughty. The latter ran one of the most visually impressive turf maiden races I can recall at Keeneland when winning here in the ’21 Fall Meet. She’s not been back since, but don’t be shocked if the Chad Brown trainee doesn’t flock to it once again. Lovely Princess is 2-for-2 over the course and 1-for-9 elsewhere.


9th Race
The Grade 3 $350,000 Raven Run matches 3-year-old fillies over 7 furlongs. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, the Raven Run has had 4 winning favorites but 3 upsetters at 13-1 or more – feast or famine. Saratoga has produced 3 of those winners, good news for favorites Alva Starr and Dazzling Blue, but interestingly the Charles Town Oaks also has 2 winners of repute and looks for a third with Vahva. Penn National-based trainer Todd Beattie came here to win this race in 2014 with Taris and returns with Simply Stated, riding a 4-race win streak. But note 6 of these 9 fillies enter off victories. The only Kee dirt experience in the field includes an allowance runner-up Vahva in April and Lady Radler’s ’22 Fall Meet second in the Myrtlewood Stakes. Of the 42 Kee dirt stakes at 7F in our database, 30 of the winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Only 7 closed more than 5 lengths at that point. And only 3 winners turned back from a two-turn route like Nom de Plume and Anicent Peace attempt.


10th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick 3 closes with an allowance turf sprint. Five of the 6 turf sprints so far this meet have been won by closers (average whopping 3-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile). Kentucky Downs raiders shortening from 6-1/2 furlong sprints have won 4 of those first 6. That’s good news for Axthem and Counterstrike as the only KD preppers. I’m intrigued what regally bred Zatip can do here after a year on the sidelines. He’s a Tapit new gelding out of Zaftig, a brilliantly fast mare. A turf sprint might work for him while fresh and drawn very well. It’s a rare local turf sprint with no representation by situational kingpin Wesley Ward.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Comments Keeneland Saturday Oct 21

1st Race
Rain continued thru out the day Friday but was expected to pass by the opener. Hard to judge how wet the track will be or how it will play, so keep an open mind as you wind thru the afternoon, which starts with a high level claiming sprint. 3-Vulcan is likely to be one of the favorites with a big chance as he exits tougher company and moves back to the dirt where he's done his best work. Chris Hartman claimed him a couple starts ago and he's run very well since. Look for him to be forwardly placed along with 4-Cold as Hell, also one of the likely choices, and 5-Mad Daddy Too.


2nd Race
Hartman's roll could well continue into race 2 as 3-Ready for Trouble seems ready for a big race following a second place finish at this same level. 5-Dancing Nancy will likely be favored as she exits a Saratoga maiden special that was won by the eventual Alcibiades winner, but she seems somewhat one paced and while the class drop will help, Ready for Trouble seems better able to offer a closing kick. 12-Carpe Ostend debuts for Kenny McPeek with some steady works and the trainer is 15% when debuting in maiden claiming situations with this race not having too many standouts outside the top two.


3rd Race
2-Kingmaker makes his first start since January, first since being gelded and first for a claiming price. The Ron Moquett charge ran a respectable third in his most recent try back in January, and he's worked well for his return. Flavian Prat takes the call and while the price will likely be short, he's the one to beat if he's close to what he was at the start of the year. 1-Charted moves turf to dirt and also drops into an easier spot for his first try in the claiming ranks. Likely to sit close to the pace, he should be high odds but is not without a chance. 7-Bourbon Fever races for the dynamic duo of Norm Casse and Ricardo Santana, Jr. Claimed for $50k back in July, he drops to a new low level and definitely fits with these.


4th Race
Whether this very nice, wide open allowance remains on the turf or moves to the main track, 2-Oeuvre looms large for Chris Block. The daughter of Shackleford shows ability on both surfaces and has a high cruising speed that has taken her to victory through 3 straight races in a roll dating back to the spring. While she mostly races in sprints, she has a pedigree to go longer and a touch of class with earnings of over $630k and 13 wins in 21 starts. 4-Adaay In Asia can sit just off the pace and will be in the garden spot if several hook up on the front early. 8-Viareggio scored her first and only US win over the Keeneland turf course but since then has failed to put it things together in stakes company. Look for her to improve in her second start following a freshening, although her fondness for softer courses is a bit of a question mark. If the race is on the dirt, 9-Butterbean (a main track only entrant) and 5-Braganza become interesting prospects.


5th Race
The Pick 6 starts here with a wide open maiden two year old filly event at 6-1/2 furlongs and appears a good place to cast a wide net. 9-Sweet Gal of Mine almost got the job done in her debut over at Churchill and she seems the type who will benefit from a bit more ground and from the experience. 8-Denim and Pearls was an expensive half a million dollar sale purchase last summer and she debuts for Brad Cox, who is 26% with first time starters and currently tied for leading trainer. The filly is a 1/2 sister to early bloomer and graded stakes winner Newgate, but the price may be low on the daughter of Into Mischief and Cox's record for the meet is currently below 17% which is sub par for one of the nation's top conditioners. 2-Best of All, a Three Chimneys homebred by Candy Ride debuts for Chad Brown with Tyler Gaffalione up. The filly's dam won first time out and the work tab at Keeneland as well as Belmont is extensive. Could definitely see this one running well first time and perhaps at a solid price.


6th Race
4-Raise Cain is cross entered here in the Perryville as well as a race on Wednesday, and in either spot, he looks like a contender. If he remains here, look for him to sit closer to the pace than has been the case previously as there's little speed in here and it appears his morning works have been fast in an effort to sharpen him up for this turn back in distance. The colt has won at 7 furlongs as well as at Keeneland, breaking his maiden here in his second start at the sprint distance. He went on to finish well in several two turn graded stakes including the Indiana Derby, which he lost by a nose to 1-Verifying, the likely favorite here. While both horses have a big chance, Verifying may be slightly hindered by the inside post, and he has a habit of getting beat despite running well on more than occasion. 3-Post Time is the newcomer to the group riding a perfect, 4 for 4 record. While the son of Frosted is untested at this level, he's done everything right so far and his trainer Brittany Russell is exceptional at finding the right spots for the right horse at the right time.


7th Race
5-Malibu Springs was second in New York last month and put in a very fast work at Keeneland ten days ago. The gelding is out of a mare who broke her maiden in her first start in the Arlington Washington Lassie, so he has a touch of quality in his pedigree to go with his early speed. 6-Ben Franklin tries two turns in his second start for Kenny McPeek and his debut was strong. 8-Mount Craig is one of the more experienced in the field and his last two at Saratoga and Churchill Downs were both very good efforts. 9-Furious Anger is another trying the two turns for the first time and with good early speed, seems headed the right way.


8th Race
In another very competitive turf allowance, 7-Sinfiltre gets back to the course she scored her first level allowance win over. She's in good form following a close third in the grade 3 Ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs, and the shorter distance suits her forward style. Look for her to sit a stalking trip under Flavian Prat for Todd Pletcher, who is currently tied atop the trainer standings. 11-Fancy Martini has run well with give in the ground and trainer Joe Sharp thought enough of the filly to claim her back last start for $80,000--the price he lost her for in July. 5-Poca Mucha is a long shot with a chance after some challenging trips in her last few tries. The mare is likely to be big odds, she likes give in the ground and she's capable of a nice closing kick.


9th Race
In a very balanced edition of the grade 2 Raven Run, 4-Vahva has an ideal draw and style to sit the trip for Johnny Velazquez and Cherie DeVaux. A winner of the Charlestown Oaks in her most recent race, the filly is turning back from two turns to one, but she's been effective at 7 furlongs regardless of the track configuration and she has the ability to sit off the speed likely to come from 7-Alva Starr, 2-Simply Stated and possibly even 8-Lady Radler and 9-Ancient Peace. Of that group, Alva Starr would seem to be fastest and, riding a two race win streak including the Prioress at Saratoga, may be the one to catch but 7 furlongs under pressure may be a little too much. Lady Radler may be getting good at the right time but will definitely be more effective if she can settle as she did last time out in the Dogwood at Churchill Downs.


10th Race
Similar to the way he came off the layoff and won here in April, Gregory's Pride has a big chance to rebound off a 90 day break and run big. The gelding is reunited with Flavian Prat and should have an honest pace to close into. 7-B D Valeski has handled give in the ground in the past and moves up in class following a win at Churchill. He finished not far behind Gregory's Pride the last time they met up here in the spring and seems an improving horse now. 11-Fauci gets Lasix for the first time and just missed at this level last out at Saratoga. He's definitely capable but will be a short price in what looks to be a competitive finale.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Saturday October 21, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland
Post Time 5:16 p.m. eastern time
Lexus Raven Run Stakes – Grade 2
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#6 Vahva – minimum win betting odds 2 to 1
#7 Alva Starr – minimum win betting odds – 2 to 1
Honorable Mention:
#2 Simply Stated – minimum win betting odds 5 to 1
#8 Lady Radler – minimum win betting odds 5 to 1

Vahva may have the slightest edge over Alva Starr in this race because her most recent start in late August winning the Charles Town Oaks came at the same seven furlong distance of the Raven Run Stakes. Not only that, but the course configuration at Charles Town is such that seven furlong trip was around two-turns, which can be more difficult to navigate than one turn. The cut back in turns may help Vahva to run as well, or better, than she did in the Oaks, where she stalked in third for the first six furlongs, then came out three paths wide to win going away. That effort earned her a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, a nice improvement off the 91 figure she earned a little over one month earlier when third in the Victory Ride Stakes. Considering Vahva had been away from the races for two months before the Victory Ride, her pattern for more improvement is pretty obvious. It must also be noted that the 2022 Raven Run Winner (Caramel Swirl) used the Charles Town Oaks as her final start before victory in this race.

Alva Starr has never finished worse than second in five races, winning three and placing in the other two. Her last two efforts have been her most impressive, first when winning the Dashing Beauty Stakes in July with a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure then winning the Prioress Stakes by nearly nine lengths. Although the 103 figure in the Prioress was lower than the 106 figure in her prior start, Alva Starr was geared down in the last sixteenth of a mile so she could have run faster. An interesting fact about this filly is she is a full sister to Cilla, who won a number of stakes and earned a half-million dollars, including when third in the 2021 Raven Run following a win in the Prioress, for the same trainer (Brinkman). If there is one concern, it is that every race Alva Starr has run has been at the distance of six furlongs, so this will be her first attempt at a longer distance.

Honorable mention goes to two more talented fillies. The first of the pair is Simply Stated, as she’s won four in a row including the Penn Ladies Dash Stakes in August with a 95 figure. After that, Simply Stated won on the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs, earning at 92 figure. What’s interesting to note is that her trainer, Todd Beattie, shipped in Taris to win this race in 2014 off an identical win at Presque Isle Downs at six furlongs. Lady Radler is the other horse who I feel deserves honorable mention. She paid $48 (for $2) when winning the Dogwood Stakes last month at this distance. She won two races in a row this summer and last year she ran very well to finish second at 30 to 1 in the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland. The first of her two wins this spring came in the Goldfinch Stakes, in which she earned a career-best 96 figure. As a filly with five wins in 10 races, she has some quality about her and can’t be discarded as a contender.

[ConleyPicks]

Kim Nelson

Saturday's card features the Perryville where a rematch of Verifying and Raise Cain should prove very exciting and the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run which came up a tough race for 3 year old fillies.

1st Race
#7 Thealligatorhunter has been facing stakes company at Canterbury and his Beyer numbers coming out of those races are strong. He has been successful at this distance and local works are solid. #3 Vulcan just missed 2 back with a front running race getting nailed at the wire. He posted a 91 Beyer in that one and with anything close to that effort puts him in the money here. #5 Mac Daddy Too is a consistent runner with similar company. This is his 2nd off the layoff and he comes over the 8-5 early favorite. Top Picks #7, #3 and #5


2nd Race
#9 Lindsey hasn't shown much run so far but playing the angle that she will come around here moving to the dirt and dropping in class. The shorter distance should also suit her. #5 Dancing Nancy is another on the drop and comes over with top connections. A couple of works over the local going suggest she's ready. #3 Ready for Trouble is an improving sort that could land a share. Top Picks #9, #5 and #3


3rd Race
#2 Kingmaker drops in class, comes over as a first time gelding and shows a recent bullet work. He is set up for the win. #7 Bourbon Fever finished a decent 3rd last out in his first back on this form cycle. Slight drop here could move him forward. #12 Back to Reality is moving up in price but recent effort suggest he could land a share. Top Picks #2, #7 and #12


4th Race
Race 4 is the start of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. #2 Oeuvre is an impressive runner with 5 wins in 7 starts this year and 7 wins in 8 starts last year. She has early foot and is as honest as the day is long. #8 Viareggio is 2nd off the layoff and may be finding softer here than in recent form. She can boast a win over the Keeneland lawn last spring and Tyler Gaffalione lands here. #3 Sweet Dani Girl is another looking for a softer spot and has a shot with these. Top Picks #2, #8 and #3


5th Race
#8 Denim and Pearls is a firster for the Brad Cox barn. This well bred filly has a solid work tab over the Keeneland main course and connections win with 26% of debut runners. #3 Irina's Charm has a race under her belt where she finished a good 4th. Look for her to move forward. #6 Aunt Fannie is another well bred filly that could be quite precocious first time out. Top Picks #8, #3 and #6


6th Race
#4 Raise Cain looks like one that could appreciate the back up in distance as he broke his maiden here at 7 furlongs in impressive fashion. He just missed to Verifying in the Indiana Derby and like him to turn the tables here. . #1 Verifying has quite the resume and comes over as the even money favorite. #5 Dr. Venkman is undefeated in 2 starts and is worth a look. Top Picks #4, #1 and #5


7th Race
#9 Furious Anger was the beaten favorite last out but was just caught at the wire after a front running race to land a 3rd. Expect a big move forward off that one. #6 Ben Franklin posted a strong 81 Beyer figure in his first start and looks like one that has a big future. #8 Mount Craig brings the experience edge and note he seldom misses a check. Top Picks #9, #6 and #8


8th Race
#1 Lovely Princess has had a bit of 2nditis lately but look for her to head back to the winner's circle here. She is 2 for 2 over the Keeneland lawn and is proven at this distance. #10 Walkathon is making her 2nd start off a long vacation. This filly was undefeated in 3 starts when moved to the turf including the Grade 3 Regret. She turned in an even effort in her first back at Kentucky Downs but she likes the Keeneland turf and is 2 for 2 at this distance. #7 Sinfiltre is backing up in distance and expect her to be sharp as well. Looking for a blanket finish here as this is a very good field of fillies and mares Top Picks #1, #10 and #7


9th Race
#7 Alva Starr has won her last 2 starts in impressive fashion and hasn't finished worse than 2nd in 5 career starts. She is very quick from the gates and may prove very tough to catch. #4 Vahva is a distance specialist and comes over off a Grade 3 win. Her stalking style could prove effective if the front end pace gets too hot. #2 Simply Stated has won her last 4 races and although she makes a big step up in class here have to show her some respect for always bringing her A game. Top Picks #7, #4 and #2


10th Race
#11 Fauci is making his 3rd off the layoff and has just missed to finish 2nd in his last 2 races. He adds Lasix this time and gets Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. #8 Counterstrike showed little last time when taking on Grade 2 company but that was at Kentucky Downs and can overlook that one. That would be the first off the board finish this year and look for him to get back on track here. #5 Axthelm is 2nd off the layoff and should be sharp off his last. Top Picks #11, #8 and #5

[ConleyPicks]

SANTA ANITA CONSENSUS 10/21

1st post: 1:00 PM	Bob Mieszerski (32/$125.20)	Art Wilson (23/$166.60)	Terry Turrell (18/$104.80)	Eddie Wilson (29/$148.80)	Consensus* (27/$123.60)
1	Going Mobile Potito Mr. Suds	Going Mobile Mr. Dreamcycle Gentlemen's Club	Gentlemen's Club Mr. Suds Potito	Going Mobile Mr. Dreamcycle Potito	Going Mobile (15) Gentlemen's Club (6) Mr. Dreamcycle (4)
2	Signofthecross Mike Operator Economical	Mendez Mile Signofthecross Mike Operator	Economical Mike Operator Wattens Candy Man	Signofthecross Mike Operator Mendez Mile	Signofthecross (12) Mike Operator (7) Mendez Mile (6)
3	PENS STREET Hennys Crazy Train Whistler's Style	Whistler's Style Kuora Hennys Crazy Train	Pens Street Whistler's Style Classymademoiselle	Pens Street Hennys Crazy Train Classymademoiselle	Pen's Street (17) Whistler's Style (8) Hennys Crazy Train (5)
4	Zimba Warrior Good Juju Settecento	MY INDY Settecento Big Buzz	SETTECENTO Good Juju Big Buzz	Good Juju Settecento Zimba Warrior	Settecento (12) Good Juju (9) My Indy (7)
5	Antibes Man O Rose City of Angels	City of Angels Antibes Man O Rose	Antibes City of Angels Man O Rose	City of Angels Antibes Man O Rose	City of Angels (13) Antibes (9) Man O Rose (5)
6	Park City Elevado Bright Leaf	Bright Leaf Park City Elevado	Bright Leaf Afjan Elevado	PARK CITY Bright Leaf Afjan	Park City (14) Bright Leaf (8) Elevado (4)
7	High King Helen's Sun Light Dragoon	Light Dragoon Immelmann High King	High King Nestucka Immelmann	Nestuka Light Dragoon High King	High King (12) Light Dragoon (8) Nestuka (7)
8	Dua Sandy Bottom Becky's Dream	Dua Becky's Dream Sandy Bottom	Dua Sandy Bottom Becky's Dream	Sandy Bottom Dua Becky's Dream	Dua (17) Sandy Bottom (10) Becky's Dream (5)
9	E J Won the Cup Urban Legend British Isles	British Isles Nysos Urban Legend	British Isles Nysos Urban Legend	Nysos British Isles E J Won the Cup	British Isles (13) Nysos (9) E J Won the Cup (6)
	*Selections from Bob Mieszerski, Art Wilson, Terry Turrell and Eddie Wilson are combined in the consensus. A top choice receives five points (handicapper's capitalized best bet receives seven) a second choice two points and a third choice one. Numbers below handicapper's name reflect total wins and money won for the meet.