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Friday 9/8/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
I like the price we get on the Dodgers as a road favorite at Washington Friday night. Dodgers rookie right-hander Emmet Sheehan has posted an ERA of 2.08 over his last three starts and he'll face a Washington team that has not been putting up much of a fight lately.
Bet this free pick on the Dodgers with 2% of your bankroll.
Neither Luis Severino nor the Yankees can be counted on. The Brewers have lost eight fewer games than the Yankees. So I'm going to back the underdog.
The Brewers are 37-34 on the road. They have a rested bullpen, unlike New York, having been idle Thursday. That's important because Colin Rea, their fifth starter, is slated to pitch.
Rea isn't very good, but he hasn't been as bad as Severino, who is 4-8 with a 6.75 ERA. That ERA goes up to 8.10 when Severino pitches at night. Severino has surrendered 15 runs in his last 25 innings pitching at Yankee Stadium.
The right-handed Rea has a 5.07 ERA. But note he's pitched against good-hitting teams in five of his last six starts, including the Braves and Phillies twice. The Yankees are second-to-last in batting average against righty pitchers.
Illinois/Kansas 7:30: Illinois defense not the same under new DC Aaron Henry. Last season, under Ryan Walters (now HC Purdue), the Fighting Illini were opportunistic, hard-hitting unit. Last week, they allowed Toledo to gash them for 416 total yards. Kansas, which has 10 returning starters back on offense, including versatile QB Jalon Daniels (good to go). Returning production for Kansas is #1 in nation. They're a more cohesive team on both sides of the ball at this point of the season under crafty coach Leipold. I respect Illinois Ole Miss transfer Altmyer who engineered the late comeback last week; however, supporting cast still in development stage. We'll tread lightly and lay a FG with the Jayhawks.
Probable Pitchers: SDG - B. Snell-L vs HOU - H. Brown-R
On Friday we have a nice AL betting matchup between the San Diego Padres (66-75, 27-39 on the road, and 5-5 L10) and the Houston Astros (80-61, 35-24 at home, and 7-3 L10). On the bumps we get Blake Snell (12-9, 2.50 ERA, 201 SO) taking on Hunter Brown. (10-10, 4.53 ERA, 157 SO)
Blake Snell hasn't quite been his usual self this year. The lefty's 5.2 BB/9 is tied for the worst of his career. You have to look as far back as his rookie season to see these numbers. He's now 12-9 and last game out allowed 3 hits and 4 walks while striking out 8 over 6 scoreless innings to earn the win over the Giants.
On the other side Brown (10-10) took the loss on Saturday, surrendering 5 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits and 4 walks over 4+ innings as the Astros were defeated 5-4 by the Yankees. He recorded 5 strikeouts.
I'm not hear to tell you that Brown is going to be better than Snell, but I do like the way the Astros are playing, and they just need Brown to go 6 innings in this one, and the pen will bring it home. The Astros' offense is showing signs of life once again, and that should make everyone in the American League sit up and take notice.
Some trends to note, Houston are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games, and are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the NL. Also, the Astros have hit the ML in 63 of their last 106 games (+7.40 Units / 5% ROI). For the Padres they're 1-7 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
In this evenly matched starting pitching matchup, we feel that the homefield advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. The Mets are just 29-42 on the road, while the Twins are 40-29 at home. Minnesota just took two of three from the Guardians, but with a day off here we think the Twins are the correct call in the opener of this series with the Mets. Kodai Senga (10-7, 3.08 ERA) gets the call for New York, while Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 5.06) counters for the home side. We like Keuchel to settle down and, at the very least, match Senga inning for inning. Good value on a hot home team, consider Minnesota!
Las Vegas @ Phoenix (10:00 PM EST) Play On: Las Vegas -18
The Las Vegas Aces travel to Phoenix to take on the Mercury on Friday night. Las Vegas is 32-7 overall this year while Phoenix comes in with a 9-29 overall record on the season. Phoenix is 0-6 SU and ATS so far this year when playing on Friday. Phoenix is 9-21 ATS last 3 years and 1-8 ATS this year when playing on 2 days rest. Phoenix is 3-14 ATS this year against division opponents. Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS last 5 games against the Western Conference. Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Las Vegas tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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