Saturday 8/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - August 26

Aug. 25, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $32,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	8	Rhythmic Ruler	S E Bermudez
PLACE	6-1	2	Hot Pastrami	O Mojica
SHOW	5-1	6	Bourbon Spirit	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Summer in Malibu	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Magnificent Mile	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	7	Holiday House	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #2 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:29 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Mr Discount	F De La Cruz
PLACE	2-1	7	First of His Name	A Achard
SHOW	6-1	3	New Spell	M Franklin
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Sticky Note	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	2	New Bern	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Baytown Connected	J Elliott
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $40,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Brittanysgldnfaith	M Anderson
PLACE	6-1	3	Quilter	F De La Cruz
SHOW	5-1	7	Tu Cha	O Mojica
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Z Zs Red	J Morales
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	Starlet Express	H Leahey
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Her Way	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #4 $41,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 TAKECHARGEJUSTICE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Takechargejustice	F De La Cruz
PLACE	3-1	1	Backyard Justice	A P Ulloa
SHOW	5-1	9	Fruitcake	A Burgos
WILD CARD	15-1	8	He Goes Forever	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Casper Justice	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Knights Move	J Morales
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
RACE #5 $38,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:06 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 BEREA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	11	Berea	J D Ramos
PLACE	6-1	3	Dabney	S E Bermudez
SHOW	12-1	7	Six J Starlet	H Leahey
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Goody Four Shoes	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Deputy Star	M Anderson
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	10	Echo Dreamer	E Esquivel
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/11 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #6 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	7	Cable Boss	J Elliott
PLACE	4-1	4	Washingtons Union	A Achard
SHOW	5-1	9	Polyglot	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Smart Prize	A Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Irish Aces	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	More Lies	R A Prescott
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/9 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX
RACE #7 $43,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 EVIL INTENTIONS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Evil Intentions	R A Prescott
PLACE	9-2	9	Skippinjustice	J D Ramos
SHOW	3-1	7	Unbridled Talent	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Skys Image	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Noble Prize	J Morales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Amazingness	A Burgos
* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX
RACE #8 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Star Wisher	E Esquivel
PLACE	7-2	1	Pond Walker	A Achard
SHOW	6-1	7	Hotheaded Princess	R A Prescott
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Puffin	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Lilly Lane	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Callies Passion	J Gilligan
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #9 $14,000 TRIALS 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	3	Trixs Are for Kids	R D Pina
PLACE	4-1	7	Mg Pilot Boy	G Vazquez-Gomez
SHOW	8-1	4	Bdeez Dynasty	J M Ruiz
WILD CARD	20-1	8	Unchallenged	E N Esqueda
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Hf Main Feature	M Munoz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Mg Hearthly Boy	L D Martinez
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #10 $14,000 TRIALS 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	7	Red Headed Beach	R D Pina
PLACE	5-1	5	Dreamers Into Cartel	S Jackson
SHOW	6-1	6	The Good Candy	G Vazquez-Gomez
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Lethal Wagon	F Morin
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Heza Classy Kiss	E N Esqueda
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Reagal Cat	J M Ruiz
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #11 $14,000 TRIALS 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:09 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	No Ordinari Joe	G Vazquez-Gomez
PLACE	5-1	5	Jess Takin On Cash	R D Pina
SHOW	9-5	1	Eagle Flybye	L D Martinez
WILD CARD	10-1	8	Tin Knocker	M Munoz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Seize Sum Fun	H Macias
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Zzz Man	D Villamil Bocanegra
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
RACE #12 $14,000 TRIALS 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Go O Commando	J Belloc Jr.
PLACE	4-1	2	Eyesa Dashin Josie	R D Pina
SHOW	6-1	8	Mg Pilot Boi	F Quintero
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Sweeet Caroline	L D Martinez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Open Princess Corona	E N Esqueda
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Louisiana On Fire	G Vazquez-Gomez
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 26

Aug. 25, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $83,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:40 AM ET
BEST BET: #8 WALSTIB
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Walstib	J Alvarado
PLACE	3-1	2	Catire Vizcaya	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	7	First Trumpet	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Stunnem	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Secret Lover	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Uncle Eddie	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #2 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	12-1	8	Volkert	D Davis
PLACE	10-1	4	Feathers Road	J L Ortiz
SHOW	9-5	1	City Mischief	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	15-1	10	Empire Sky	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Courageoous Oh La	N Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	2	Ortus	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX
RACE #3 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:46 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 MONEY SUPPLY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Money Supply	L Saez
PLACE	6-1	6	Watasha	T Gaffalione
SHOW	2-1	4	Mistical Curlin	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Whats Up Doc	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Mighty Atlas	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Skylander	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $156,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	1	Scocciatore	F Prat
PLACE	7-2	6	Lord Captain	J L Ortiz
SHOW	8-1	9	Bold Journey	J Rosario
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Sky and Sand	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Osbourne	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Champions Dream	L Saez
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/9 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX
RACE #5 $156,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 3/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	10	Tonal Impact	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-1	1	Dynadrive	J Castellano
SHOW	2-1	7	James Aloysius	J Rosario
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Catch That Party	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Nobel	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	9	Iron Works	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/10 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #6 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Colonial Rose	J R Leparoux
PLACE	10-1	10	Lifes Joy	L Saez
SHOW	8-1	13	Clearly a Test	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Antenna	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Heresyourtrouble	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	9	Just F Y I	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-13 BOX, 13-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/10/13 BOX, 3/10/13 BOX
RACE #7 $500,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:07 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 FOREGO STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-2	3	Elite Power	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-5	2	Gunite	T Gaffalione
SHOW	12-1	4	Pipeline	L Saez
WILD CARD	30-1	1	High Oak	K Davis
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Synthesis	M Franco
* EXACTA: 3/2
* TRIFECTA: 3/2/1,4,5
COMMENTS: ELITE POWER has exquisite late pace and should not be too far off the lead with this group. GUNITE gave up the lead late to ELITE POWER in their last outing. He should be more fit in round two off the sidelines. PIPELINE has a chance to steal this one on the lead if he can run proper fractions. HIGH OAK is trending in the right direction and should and has a pair of maintenance works between races.
RACE #8 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	6	Highly Flammable	J Castellano
PLACE	6-1	4	Talkin Pharoah	J L Ortiz
SHOW	6-1	2	Monet Never	F Prat
WILD CARD	7-2	12	Southern Horse	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Acoustic Ave	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	13	Souper Quest	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/12 BOX
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:19 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 H ALLEN JERKENS MEMORIAL GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	New York Thunder	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	6	Arabian Lion	J R Velazquez
SHOW	4-1	3	Verifying	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Fort Bragg	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Drews Gold	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	One in Vermillion	L Saez
* EXACTA: 3,5,6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,6/5,6/ALL
COMMENTS: NEW YORK THUNDER ran his fastest fractions last out despite running his longest race to date. ARABIAN LION tends to run well with some rest like today. A fast early race could be to his advantage with strong late pace. VERIFYING will try to sit right behind the leaders and make a bold move out of the turn to the wire. FORT BRAGG might try to take this race wire to wire but will need to be mindful of his early fractions.
RACE #10 $500,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 BALLERINA STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	6	Echo Zulu	F Geroux
PLACE	9-5	7	Goodnight Olive	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	5	Wicked Halo	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Matareya	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Caramel Swirl	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Dr B	L Saez
* EXACTA: 5,6,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5,6,7/6,7/2,5,6,7,8
COMMENTS: ECHO ZULU should improve in her second start off the bench and her last was good enough to win. GOODNIGHT OLIVE got the better of ECHO ZULU in the Breeders Cup but has not run as well since. WICKED HALO is unbeaten in a pair at Saratoga and in the money six of six at the distance. MATAREYA has been working out well at Saratoga getting ready for this but looks a touch below the top three.
RACE #11 $750,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:31 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $750,000 SWORD DANCER STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	1	Soldier Rising	J L Ortiz
PLACE	6-5	7	Stone Age	F Prat
SHOW	5-1	3	Bolshoi Ballet	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Pioneering Spirit	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Channel Maker	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Verstappen	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 1,3,5,7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,7/1,3,7/1,3,5,6,7
COMMENTS: This race can go a lot of different ways. SOLDIER RISING could benefit from a few of the top contenders trying to keep pace early and close late on tired legs. STONE AGE could be the class of the field and his works say he will be ready to run to his ability. BOLSHOI BALLET has the top pedigree for grass in the race and should be involved from start to finish. PIONEERING SPIRIT ran the highest last race speed figure and unbeaten with Irad Ortiz riding but is really stepping up in class.
RACE #12 $1,250,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:11 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1.25 M TRAVERS STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	1	Forte	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	12-1	7	Scotland	J Alvarado
SHOW	8-1	6	Disarm	J Rosario
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Arcangelo	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Mage	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Tapit Trice	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 1/2,4,6,7 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6,7/1,6,7/1,2,4,6,7
COMMENTS: FORTE could be hard to beat with a good trip which is something he should get with leading rider Irad Ortiz. SCOTLAND ran faster fractions despite going a little longer in his last. He is a longshot that could upset here with any improvement from his last effort. It might not look like it on paper but DISARM is likely to be close to the early pace here and has a late burst. ARCANGELO won his last three including the highest last race speed figure but might find the distance to be a little shorter than he might prefer.
RACE #13 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 6:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #1A GROWTH CAPITAL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	1A	Growth Capital	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-5	14	Coalville	J L Ortiz
SHOW	6-1	3	Conversing	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	7-5	1	Right to Win	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Fly Right	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	11	Baie Longue	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 1-14 BOX, 14-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/14 BOX, 1/3/14 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 26, 2023

Aug. 24, 2023


Race 12 at Saratoga | Saturday August 26 | Post Time 6:11 PM Eastern
Travers Stakes | Purse $1.25 million | One Mile and one-quarter | Three Year Olds
Top contenders:
I hope everyone made a lot of money with last week’s Alabama Stakes as top pick Randomized got the job done at $16, and the exacta to Wet Paint returned $33. We’re taking another shot in this weekend’s biggest race, the Travers Stakes, so I hope for more of the same.
There is little doubt in my mind Forte (1) can win this year’s Travers Stakes, but I’m going to start with Scotland (7) as my top choice and he’s certainly going to pay more for a win bet if he succeeds. Just a nose shy of a perfect four-for-four record, Scotland is the most lightly raced horse in the field. That’s no concern considering his Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott has rarely been known to overreach with horses in his care and particularly three year olds. As a horse which has only run four times, Scotland may have the most room to improve among the strong Travers field and that bodes very well for his chances. Stretching out to a mile for the first time in career start number three in June, Scotland earned a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure which incidentally was the same figure Forte earned when second in the Belmont Stakes one week later. Then when stretched out to two turns for the first time in the nine furlong Curlin Stakes last month, Scotland not only improved to a 107 figure very similar to the 109 figure Forte earned winning the Jim Dandy Stakes eight days later at the same distance and over the same track, he did so with ease. Since then Scotland was flattered as Curlin runner-up Il Miracolo just won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this week, and it must be noted that Cagliostro, who finished second behind Scotland in his June 3 win, was second in the Smarty Jones as well. As to having the pedigree to successfully run the mile and one-quarter trip of the Travers, there is no issue because Scotland is a son of Good Magic, the sire of Mage, who proved 10 furlongs to be no issue when winning this year’s Kentucky Derby. With it being likely National Treasure will go for the lead as he did when winning the Preakness and before fading to sixth in the Belmont, Scotland is very likely to be in a great spot in the early stages. From there jockey Junior Alvarado, who has been aboard for all three wins, can press the gas pedal at the top of the stretch to get the lead and hold off Forte for the upset win.
Forte (1) has absolutely no knocks, except he will be the prohibitive betting choice. He won five graded stakes in a row starting with the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last summer and ending with the Florida Derby this past spring, with his best figure 106 earned winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. After a setback which resulted in being withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby, Forte ran very well in the mile and one-half Belmont after nine weeks away from the races. The 99 figure earned in that race was significantly bettered to 109 when winning the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga four weeks ago, a race in which it appeared Forte was not going to win until the final yards when his athleticism and determination, as well as that of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., helped him prevail by a nose. Blinkers added for that race may have helped as well, and so on a pattern for further improvement off what is the best last race figure in the field, Forte certainly figures to be right there at the finish once again.
Honorable mention goes to Arcangelo (2) and perhaps more so to Mage (4), and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who considered them to have as much probability to win as either Forte or Scotland. Having run five times, Arcangelo is the second most lightly raced horse in the field behind Scotland, and he too has three career wins. Those three have come in succession, with 97, 97 and 100 figures. The biggest of those victories came in the Belmont Stakes on June 10, and considering Arcangelo won on March 18 after being off since January 18, the two month rest he’s coming back from is of no concern. Still, it might take a bigger improvement than from the 97 figure earned winning the Peter Pan Stakes in May to the 100 in the Belmont to be competitive with the 107 and 109 figures earned by Forte and Scotland recently which are likely to be repeated or bettered. Similarly, Mage went from a 102 figure when second behind Forte in the Florida Derby to 104 when winning the Kentucky Derby, but since then earned a 99 figure behind National Treasure in the Preakness then 102 when second in the Haskell Stakes five weeks ago. On the other hand, Mage had been away from the races for nine weeks between those two so could improve and be right there at the finish with Forte, and hopefully Scotland, in this year’s Travers Stakes.
Bets:
Win: Scotland (7) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exacta: Box Scotland (7) and Forte (1)
Scotland (7) over Forte (1), Arcangelo (2), Mage (4)
Forte (1), Arcangelo (2), Mage (4) over Scotland (7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Travers' FULL CARD Hotlist - August 26

Aug. 24, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [R, Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (3) Secret Lover (B) got sandwiched between horses in his debut, then checked badly and made-up ground to finish fourth for trainer Antonio Sano who has 3 wins from 6 starts at Saratoga. (8) Walstib pressed the pace, had the lead, and missed the win by a neck in his debut just two weeks ago at the Spa. (2) Catire Vizcaya set the pace and finished second in his first start ahead of a return winner. He is projected to get a clear lead in this field. (4) Threewhitesoldiers was fourth in his initial career start behind an open length winner who is headed to a stakes race at Monmouth Park this weekend.
2^nd race [NY, Alw 95000 N1X, 5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Freehold Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/26 FREEHOLD
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 6- - PACE 08/26 FREEHOLD
3 Bondi Shake N 9/5 568.79 100 11.7 87.4 1:55.6 Siegelman, Austin 21
1 A B Collins 9/1 533.74 80 13.3 80.0 1:57.2 Ginsburg, Vincent 15
2 Needless To Say 2/1 523.18 80 120.0 81.0 1:57.1 Tsipouras, Frank 12
5 Born Unordinary 15/1 514.57 80 43.3 81.0 1:57.0 Cushing, Mitchell 14
7 Arque Hanover 20/1 503.42 80 51.7 86.0 1:56.4 Abbatiello, Eric 10

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Northfield Park

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/26 NORTHFIELD
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 10- - PACE 08/26 NORTHFIELD
2 Live And Let Di 9/5 628.25 100 65.0 77.0 1:54.0 Davis, Billy Jr 23
1 Mccessor 5/1 595.56 90 43.3 77.0 1:54.5 Tharps, Eric Jr 16
4 Girl In A Tavern 7/2 591.09 90 36.7 80.0 1:54.4 Sugg, Kurt 18
8 Sugarpie Honey Bee 20/1 580.24 90 10.0 78.2 1:54.4 Grismore, Greg 11
3 Devious Dame 12/1 560.63 80 10.0 75.0 1:54.6 Stahl, Ryan 17

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodstock

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 6 - Post: 2:40 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$2500 - N/W 3 RACES LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 GONE MADIGAN 7/2
# 4 JJ LINDA 6/1
# 1 COCAGNE HARRY 8/1

GONE MADIGAN most definitely is tough to overlook as the standardbred to beat in this contest. Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this panel of smart guys. Pace stats here point to a very promising play. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 71 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Positively the class of the field of starters with an average rating of 73. A nice choice. JJ LINDA - Could definitely better this group of animals given the 51 speed rating achieved in her last contest. Gallant knows this standardbred well. Excellent in the money results when starting as a team. COCAGNE HARRY - This gelding has the ability to take above average advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this affair. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a restaurant menu. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small wager.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
8	8	IMA DIAMOND BABE	7/2	Yoder, James - 10	577.61
4	4	GHOSTINTHESHELL S	2/1	Wrenn, Peter - 13	562.89
7	7	MISS SMEAD	6/1	Ferguson, Brad - 5	539.73
3	3	HIGHLY ACCLAIMED	8/1	Shetler, Dan - 6	535.29
5	5	IMALOVELYLADY	12/1	Oosting, Michael - 13	533.47
9	9	PILGRIMS IMAGE	20/1	Krueger, Matt - 8	513.79
2	2	RENEGADE GYPSY	4/1	Tetrick, Trace - 22	489.77
1	1	EVERLASTINGFASHION	12/1	Bender, Atlee - 10	476.60
6	6	NO LINGERING	12/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 11	437.39

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at North Side Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 4 - Post: 2:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$1175 - NON WINNERS $801 L5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 THUNDER ALLEY 5/2
# 3 JOHNNIE JACK 3/1
# 7 HOWMAC NAPOLEON 7/2

THUNDER ALLEY is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the group. Worth careful consideration here on the basis of the figures in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. This harness racer looks tough considering the high class numbers. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. Many top players will recognize the stellar TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. JOHNNIE JACK - The number crunching team always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning percent is evidence of that. Not many folks know, but the 3 position here at North Side Downs has been stellar for a better than expected win percent. HOWMAC NAPOLEON - Could surprise us at a reasonable price. Don't leave out. Should be considered this time if only for the very good TrackMaster SR recorded in the last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
4	4	LIGHTFOOTEDLEGEND	5/2	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 13	517.80
1	1	KINDA LUCKY LINDY	3/2	Brennan, George - 16	504.04
5	5	FULL RIGHTS	6/1	Boyd, Braxten - 9	494.86
2	2	MUFASA AS	7/2	Merton, Gregory - 24	487.08
7	7	PIVOTAL	20/1	Lachance, Pat - 9	461.56
3	3	DIRTY MONEY	10/1	Holland, Brent - 12	454.37
6	6	LADY JETER	20/1	Siegelman, Austin - 10	431.86

[ConleyPicks]

RACING DUDES SARATOGA

1	#2 CATIRE VIZCAYA	3-1	J C Avila	I Ortiz, Jr.
2	#2 ORTUS	3-1	C Clement	J Rosario
3	#3 MONEY SUPPLY	9-5	J Sharp	L Saez
4	#8 SKY AND SAND	6-1	R Diodoro	R Santana, Jr.
5	#6 NOBEL	7-2	B P Walsh	T Gaffalione
6	#6 COWGIRL CHARM	5-1	T A Pletcher	J R Velazquez
7	#3 ELITE POWER	1-2	W I Mott	I Ortiz, Jr.
8	#13 SOUPER QUEST	3-1	M E Casse	I Ortiz, Jr.
9	#6 ARABIAN LION	2-1	B Baffert	J R Velazquez
10	#6 ECHO ZULU	7-5	S M Asmussen	F Geroux
11	#7 STONE AGE	6-5	C C Brown	F Prat
12	#1 FORTE	7-5	T A Pletcher	I Ortiz, Jr.
13	#1A GROWTH CAPITAL	7-5	C C Brown	I Ortiz, Jr.

[ConleyPicks]

Saratoga - 8/26 - Travers Day KEVIN COX

Race 1

1.Walstib

2.Threewhitesoldiers

3.Secret Lover

#8 WALSTIB overcame some trouble to fight the good fight in finishing second when debuting back on the 10th, and from a trainer stat perspective, McPeek triples his normative 14% batting average with his 2TS'ers going short on the sand, who were ITM < 32 days back @ 15-1 or less ( mdspwt. ). He's 3 for 7 in that regards, with payouts of $3, $4 & $7. #4 THREEWHITESOLDIERS has the best shot of upsetting the applecart based on the difficulty encountered first time out, along with being a half to a multiple stakes placed runner. #3 SECRET LOVER was in the middle of a Dagwood at first asking, but came along decently to close out the super at 34-1. and deserves a shot to make amends for a barn having a decent meet from limited runners.

Race 2

1.Ortus

2.City Mischief

3.Dreampoint

#2 ORTUS has been quite consistent in his quartet of outings to date, and among those nice efforts were three starts when breaking from inside-ish type slots. As it often does, it comes down to the trip beneath Rosario, and while we'll give him a slight nod, it's with baited breath. #1 CITY MISCHIEF has been a part of the superfecta in both second off the bench heats, and enters off a placing in this race last month. #3 DREAMPOINT is a nibbler by rote, but being a part of the super in 15 of his last 16 is nothing to sneeze at, so we'll slide beneath. OFF TURF: 5-1-12(MTO)-7-13(MTO)

Race 3

1.Mighty Atlas

2.Mistical Curlin

3.St. Elmo

#7 MIGHTY ATLAS has gone 44-45-61-62-71 in his quintet of dirt outings to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. The most recent of those was a solid placing where he outran his 25-1 offering after getting bumped at the beginning beneath today's pilot. Lone score came when last to load, and Maker is three of seven with second off the bench sand stayers who crashed the fiesta less than 32 days ago at 12-1 or less, with returns of $8 x 2 & $3. #4 MISTICAL CURLIN has some decent early hoof, and could fare better than the most recent if able to set an unpressured pace. #2 ST. ELMO went coast to coast like butter and toast when making that second left for the first time, and two of four returnees from that affair returned victorious when next in action. Must include. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 MONEY SUPPLY fills the bill, as Sharp is anything but with those fitting this exact criteria, as the 1-11 stat belies.

Race 4

1.Osborne

2.Bold Journey

3.Champions Dream

#3 OSBORNE seems to prefer the fringes, but solidly placed in both 2nd off the bench engagements, and Irad sees fit to stick around despite the poor recent effort for Moquett, who's 2 of 3 with optional sand sprinters beneath Ortiz off L/O's of 6-50 days ( 12-1 or < ), with mutuels of $5 & $22. #9 BOLD JOURNEY is 8:3-3-0 at today's distance of ground, and that fares quite favorably to his 8:1-2-0 ledger otherwise. #10 CHAMPIONS DREAM has been away for a handful of months, but was a daylight clear runner up in his sole start off the pine and owns a win over the strip. There will be a jockey substitution here, so check the changes.

Race 5

1.James Aloysius

2.Dynadrive

3.Catch That Party

#7 JAMES ALOYSIUS has done nothing but improve since starting things out two years ago, and trainer is a Gargan-tuan 8:6-0-2 with those going long on the lawn at this level off layoffs of 48 days or less wearing blinkers ( 4-1 or beneath ), and there's a $4.88 return on investment with that type. #1 DYNADRIVE has won four of his last five with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and was photogenic the only time he stepped on the Thornton Mellon turf course. Watch out. #2 CATCH THAT PARTY was an open length $37 winner the last time he went from brown to green. Grey gelding completed the exacta the only time he began from the inside, and is a poyfect three fer three w/ I. Ortiz astride. Things to like with all three of these animals. OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-1-1A(MTO)-7-2

Race 6

1.Just F Y I

2.Colonial Rose

3.Antenna

#9 JUST F Y I is a $100,000 homebred displaying a bullet gate move for today's curtain raising, and when we see that on the worktab, we always try and find a way to incorporate the runner in our top three. 480 Tomlinson figure for the dx. is as high as you can get, and this one is a half to present day runner Oglethorpe, who's 4:1-2-0 on the dirty stuff, and has banked more than 132 large. Oh yeah, from a DRF Formulator aspect, 16% Mott is a saucy 11:3-3-1-1 with firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria, and those who found the line first paid $11, $14 & $6. #2 COLONIAL ROSE was a slightly troubled runner up in a strung out field when getting her working papers up here 34 days in the past, but as Leparoux has been icy this summer, we'll relegate to the unders. #3 ANTENNA was a mite tardy to the party when starting things out down at The Shore two fortnights back, and we like the confident trip northward today.

Race 7

1.Elite Power

2.Gunite

3.Pipeline

#3 ELITE POWER has been positively sensational since last June, having reeled off eight straight -- including two Grade One's, two Grade Two's, and a Grade Three. Chestnut chap ( who still has his chestnuts ) is also two of two in 3rd off the bench jammies AND two of two in 12866 ( with none of those races overlapping ). Obviously, the race goes through him. #2 GUNITE is the mainger danger to the above who also digs the trip & strip, while having fared well in this kind of layoff scenario. #4 PIPELINE showed at 15-1 in this race in a 2nd off the bread deal last year, and may spice things up a smidgen.

Race 8

1.Acoustic Ave

2.Souper Quest ( AE )

3.Southern Horse ( Arg )

#7 ACOUSTIC AVE was a bit off key when fading in the Quick Call, but gets the miracle drug administered for the first time, and some decent class relief as well. Threat to go all the way in a race devoid of much speed. #13 SOUPER QUEST (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it over to the races this afternoon, and should that come to fruition, would be toting along some excellent early zip, as well as an advantageous post for the "Killer crossover". #12 SOUTHERN HORSE (ARG) hasn't been seen in more than four months, but owns a win & a placing from his last two starts off a sabbatical, and jockey/trainer combination have done better together than apart. 9-2-1-14(MTO)-7

Race 9

1.Fort Bragg

2.New York Thunder

3.Arabian Lion

Our absolute favorite race - one that will always be The King's Bishop in our eyes -- and for your viewing pleasure, we've incorporated extended video of the great Lost in the Fog's win for your viewing pleasure right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PmgkAFKG7I&t=24s . As for the race itself, we'll side with the #4 FORT BRAGG. $700,000 son of Tapit has a lot of wood to chop to recoup that baccala + expenses, but Lidocaine Bob got this one back on track with an all out win in the Dwyer down in Elmont, and historically, he does quite well with those coming in off a win. Don't dismiss this one who's now won both starts when equipped with eye cups. #5 NEW YORK THUNDER has essentially made every call a winning one in four starts to date, and we like the versatility shown in having done it over four different courses -- and three different surfaces. Bounce always possible in the 2nd off the L/O attempt, but we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. #6 ARABIAN LION ( uncoupled entrymate with our top selection ), comes in off a lifetime best figure and makes all kinds of sense.

Race 10

1.Echo Zulu

2.Maryquitecontrary

3.Matareya

#6 ECHO ZULU was positively scintillating when besting three others in the Honorable Miss, winning in a canter while posting a fantastic 112 Beyer Speed Figure, and what else can you say about her ? She's won all three starts in Toga, owns a win & a placing from as many "true" 2nd off the L/O heats, and has won both starts with Flo on top. Toss in a 3 for 7 trainer stat, as The "As-Man" is just that with locally based graded dirt dashers ( no Lasix ) who won 12-50 days back ( < 3-1 ). Solid, but by no means a cinch. #3 MARYQUITECONTRARY had a little bit of an excuse when tangling with the above a month back, and went from zero to hero in her lone "second off the shelf" dance. #2 MATAREYA has done quite decently when returning from a break in the action, and has yet to miss the money in three outings when first to load.

Race 11

1.Channel Maker

2.Soldier Rising ( GB )

3.Stone Age ( Ire )

Even as a professional handicapper, we admit when we were wrong -- and shocked, and that was exactly the case when #6 CHANNEL MAKER went all the way at 15-1 in The Bowling Green. To be honest with you, we thought this one was finished after seven consecutive off the board finishes, and were shocked that they kept on with this stalwart. Having said that, he digs the local waters, has a sweet record at today's dist., and William Mott is 5:3-1-0-1with Saratoga based graded turfers going long at 7-2 or undah, who got their Polaroid taken less than 53 days back ( no Lasix ). #1 SOLDIER RISING (GB) had a forgettable start in the just mentioned affair, but was solid in two G1's just prior to that, and has been a part of the tri both times he was loaded first. #7STONE AGE (IRE) can complete the "Hot Dog / Bangers and Mash / Blood Pudding" triple based on having won one of two off a hibernation, but man, 6 to 5 is a tough nut to swallow. OFF TURF: 2-6-3-5-1

Race 12

1.Scotland

2.Forte

3.National Treasure

Featured race of the day is upon us, and what it lacks in entries, it somewhat makes up for it with a bit of star power, as all three winners of the Triple Crown ( along with Forte ) are signed on. Knowing that most eyes ( and bucks ) will be on said quartet, we'll seek value elsewhere, and just may have some with the #7 SCOTLAND. This gelding from the Bill Mott shedrow ( who theoretically could be sitting on a big day ( if our prognostications are on point ) will be overlooked by some snobs who will scoff at never even having been entered in a graded stakes event -- yet alone won in one -- but we actually like several things here. The convincing score in the Curlin ( a restricted stakes event ) reminds us of what Chad Brown accomplished with Randomized -- the Alabama winner -- having entered her in the Wilton stakes just before, While some trainers will "Shoot for the moon" after a win vs. weaker, these two are ( essentially ) Hall of Famers, and are more inclined to get their stock on track with a race such as that, ( believing they have plenty of upside ), rather than spot them where they think they're overmatched. This one is a schnoz shy of being two for two when breaking from the outermost two posts, with the win coming in his sole Saratoga start ( and first time going two turns ), and how impressive was that 47 & 3 bullet on Sunday ? It was his best half mile work ever, and was a full 2/5th's faster than the next best move. The more we type... #1 FORTE was victorious the only time he was in a "legit" 3rd off an absence" event, is four of four when beginning from the innermost three post positions, and while he may need some room late in the game, that's never really a problem for Irad, now, is it. #5 NATIONAL TREASURE was given some time off by Bob Baffert's Baked Beans after the Belmont bummer, but has hit the board in both heats when having the blinks removed, and can grab a piece.

Race 13

1.Cumberland

2.Growth Capital

3.Torigo

#10 CUMBERLAND hasn't shown much in the last pair, but we dig that there's no scary drop for today's "second off the layoff/2nd time hood jamboree", and picks up Franco, who's finishing the meet quite strongly. #1A GROWTH CAPITAL has an excellent overall body of work, and hung up an adjusted 93.7 in his only outing after being M.I.A.. #8 TORIGO closes out a looooooooonnnnng day that began 7 hours and 8 minutes ago. OFF TURF: 3-8-1-12(MTO)-9

[ConleyPicks]

1	2-1	8	Walstib	PENDING
2	12-1	8	Volkert	PENDING
3	9-5	3	Money Supply	PENDING
4	9-2	1	Scocciatore	PENDING
5	8-5	10	Tonal Impact	PENDING
6	7-2	2	Colonial Rose	PENDING
7	1-2	3	Elite Power	PENDING
8	9-2	6	Highly Flammable	PENDING
9	5-2	5	New York Thunder	PENDING
10	7-5	6	Echo Zulu	PENDING
11	5-1	1	Soldier Rising	PENDING
12	7-5	1	Forte	PENDING
13	7-5	1A	Growth Capital	PENDING

[ConleyPicks]

Saratoga Park Picks for Saturday, August 26, 2023 PredictEm Kenneth Strong

RACE 1
1. Walstib
2. Catire Vizcaya
3. First Trumpet
RACE 2
1. City Mischief
2. Image of Quality
3. Ortus
RACE 3
1. Mistical Curlin
2. Money Supply
3. Watasha
RACE 4
1. Lord Captain
2. Scocciatore
3. Bold Journey
RACE 5
1. Tonal Impact
2. James Aloysius
3. Nobel
RACE 6
1. Colonial Rose
2. Just FYI
3. Cowgirl Charm
RACE 7
1. Elite Power
2. Gunite
3. Synthesis
RACE 8
1. Souper Quest
2. Sothern Horse
3. Monet Never
RACE 9
1. New York Thunder
2. Fort Bragg
3. Arabian Lion
RACE 10
1. Echo Zulu
2. Goodnight Olive
3. Matareya
RACE 11
1. Stone Age
2. Pioneering Spirit
3. Soldier Rising
RACE 12
1. Arcangelo
2. Forte
3. Mage
RACE 13
1. Right to Win
2. Growth Capital
3. Fly Right
Good Luck!

[ConleyPicks]

Ultimate Capper SARATOGA

Post Time: 11:40 ET
Race 1: 8 Walstib
Race 2: 2 Ortus
Race 3: 3 Money Supply
Race 4: 1 Scocciatore
Race 5: 6 Nobel
Race 6: 9 Just F Y I

Race 8: 6 Highly Flammable
Race 13: 3 Conversing