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| Jun 15 | Andy Lang | 3% | [GLF] Make The Cut Parlay Time: 10:00 AM EDT |
Justin Rose+Xander Schauffele+Patrick Cantlay WILL MAKE THE CUT +107 |
| Analysis: Justin Rose -230 He’s the best in the world at putting on bent grass greens, and his approaches have been dialed in. He finished 16th at The Masters and 9th at The PGA Championship, and he’s finished 36th or better in seven straight tournaments. It’s not a long course, it’s about irons and putting which fits right into his game, I expect another big time performance from Rose this week. Xander Schauffele -430 Schauffele’s worst finish at a US Open is 14th…an amazing record considering he’s played in six straight. He’s finished Top 25 in seven straight tournaments, and hasn’t missed a cut this season in 15 tournaments. He’s 2nd best the last three months in total strokes gained and he’s +1.17 strokes gained approach and +0.63 putting, he should make the weekend. Patrick Cantlay -550 Cantlay is extremely accurate off the tee and he’s +0.86 strokes gained approach, and he’s missed one cut in his last 26 tournaments. That missed cut was at the Waste Management, and that’s his only finish outside the Top 30 this season. His putting is his weak spot, but it hasn’t affected him in the spotlight as he finished 14th at The Masters and 9th at the PGA Championship. |
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Jun 14 Tony Finn 5% [MLB] (957) Toronto Blue Jays at (958) Baltimore Orioles
Time: 7:05 PM EDTToronto Blue Jays -105 J Berrios (RHP), K Bradish (RHP) Must Start Analysis: FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE 5% BIG TICKET - Toronto Blue Jays -103 | List Berrios and Bradish | The money-line position on the Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Wednesday night is good with the Jays at -130 or better.
5% game rating
Starting Pitchers: List Berrios and Bradish
Home Plate Umpire: Junior Valentine is scheduled to work his 67th assignment at home plate in this AL East matchup. Valentine is hitter-friendly. Despite his overwhelming Over to Under ratio in 2021, with nearly twice as many Under the Total as Over the Total final scores his game-day metrics and peripherals issue him a hitter-heavy bias when working as the home plate umpire. There are pitchers who require a pitcher-friendly sort behind the dish to be uber-successful on game night and there are pitchers in which a pitcher-friendly umpire assists the opponent more than benefits the more talented pitcher. In this matchup, Berrios possesses a deeper arsenal, is vastly more experienced and Bradish has somewhat changed his pitching mix this season. His fastball, four-seam offering, was getting smashed, with an average exit velocity in excess of 95 mph.
Weather: Oriole Park at Camden Yards is forecast to have clear skies and a first-pitch temp in the mid-70s. There is no precip expected on Wednesday night and a wind will blow from the left to the rightfield foul pole between 5-10 mph.
Baltimore's No. 3 in the rotation took an early detour from the mothership this 2023 regular season to rehab a right foot contusion. Bradish was still working with the coaches and trainers at Double-A Bowie on April 14 when he allowed four runs (three earned) on three hits and one walk across five innings vs. the Guardians’ Double-A affiliate. He struck out five batters.
The 26-year-old was placed on the 15-day IL with a right foot contusion on April 5 after exiting his April 3 start, his first of the season, after taking a 104 mph liner in the second inning.
Bradish returned to the mound for an April 19th meet against the Washington Nationals in which he tossed six frames of scoreless baseball striking out six against one walk. Bradish had a little issue against a Nationals offense that has been inept against right-handed pitching then, and still. The O's righty returned to Oriole Park for a turn against Boston, who at the time of his start was hitting just .232 against right-handed pitching, and Bradish got beat up to the tune of seven runs across 2.1 innings of work while striking out one against four walks.
The O's right-hander followed the loss to the Red Sox with a pair of so-so outings, two no-decisions tossing 4.2 frames at Comerica and back in Baltimore he worked 6 innings of three-run baseball against the Braves.
Flash forward to his final May start at Camden versus the AL West first-place Texas Rangers, yet another no-decision start that saw him pitch 6.2 innings or one-run baseball striking out four against just one walk.
At this stage of the 2022 campaign, Bradish was finding success despite his average EV of 91.0 and HardHit percentage of 47.0. Bradish is experiencing the same favorable luck in 2023. The right-hander threw 80 pitches in an Interleague start in the Bay Area versus the Giants but was only able to work four innings. The start saw Bradish allow three runs on seven hits striking out five against one walk but the start resulted in his second loss of the season as his teammates supplied zero runs of support in the Saturday night matchup.
Bradish faced a scuffling Milwaukee Brewers offense this past Thursday which found him allowing three runs on six hits while punching out a season-high 10 against one walk. Bradish was able to toss five complete innings on just shy of 100 pitches and assisted in an Orioles victory although he did not figure in the decision. He was able to find the strike zone on 63 of his 98 offerings and for the third straight start did not allow a home run.
The 26-year-old is unspectacular in everything he does. He has two pitches he trusts and can be compared to a poor man Corbin Burnes. He has late movement on his four-seamer when he is sharp and a glance at his 2023 metrics shows that I am being generous when comparing him to a lesser version of Burnes, or possibly a better comparison is the Burnes of 2023. Bradish owns a 4.25 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 3.96 xFIP through 11 starts (53 IP).
As I mentioned, a pitch mix change for Bradish has limited the opposition to a 30% hard-hit rate as he has increased the usage of his sinker by 10 percent (up to 14% from 2022 usage of 4%) while using his cutter 32% of the time, his slider 27% of the time, and his curve 18% of the time.
The less he throws his four-seamer the better he commands his arsenal and the less hard contact the opposing offense makes in his starts. He has not made significant, or impactful changes to his Swg Str% or the Called-Strike-Rate, of 10 and 16 percent, respectively.
Bradish's pitching profile is not a good fit for the Blue Jays' bats. Bradish is depending on his slider as his putaway pitch, but it is not his best Run-Value offering, which is his curveball. His 4-Seamer this season has been mashed and his MLB Percentile Rankings are not anything to write home about. His command, which is just above league average is the shining note in his resume. His average EV is in the bottom 15 percent of baseball, as is his average Hard Contact. His fastball Velo remains in the top half of the league as does his FB and Curve Spin rates but a Big League lineup that is filled with savvy professional hitters understands how to attack Bradish and it is not through an aggressive stance or blueprint. There is a reason that Bradish has only pitched beyond the fifth inning on two occasions this season, he is not effecient with his pitches, and more time than not he doesn't trust his stuff on game night.Comment
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Arum Shiva/Indian Cowboy
6U total - Marlins and Mariners Under 7Comment
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Analysis:967 COL / 968 BOS Team Total (-115)triple-dime bet
[COLOR=#343434][FONT=PFDinTextCondPro-Regular]3* Red Sox TT over 5.5 - Boston hadn't been tearing the cover off the ball but woke up somee last night and expect them to wake up more against Gomber. There was part of me that wanted to take the COL over again, bet I don't want to tempt fate and Whitlock isnl capable. Gomber is not. He's got an ERA of 7.56 with a WHIP of 1.70 and that includes every game. He isn't much better outside of Coors and Boston hits LHP well. The COL pen has been BETTER but not good lately, and given that not only were the used aComment
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Tony George
4 Units
#960 Texas (-130) vs LA Angels *8 EST
2 Units
#971 Cincinnati (-110) vs Kansas City *8 ESTComment
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CleInsider
Braves/Tigers O8
Guardians/Padres U8.5Comment
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ROCKETMAN
*TOP PLAY* MLB: Take #956 Diamondbacks (-133) v Phillies (9:40 PM EST) at linepros
10* Arizona
MLB: Take #969 Yankees (-106) v Mets (7:10 PM EST) at YouWager
6* NY YankeesComment
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Executive
250 PhilliesComment
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