Saturday 3/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Jeff Ruby | March 25, 2023

Mar. 23, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $700,000 Jeff Ruby (G3), Saturday, Turfway Park – Race 12

The Jeff Ruby Steaks is a [100-40-30-20-10] points qualifier on the road to the Kentucky Derby that drew a field of 12. A fast pace is expected and those speed horses will have to handle the increase to nine-furlongs on the Tapeta. Horses that have had success racing from behind will be preferred. (8) Congruent tried the Tapeta for the first time last month in the John Battaglia which was the major prep race for The Jeff Ruby. The son of Tapit rallied from 12th place to win by more than three-lengths at odds of 16-1. (11) Wadsworth is another talented 3-year-old for Brad Cox who moved him to Turfway Park where he broke his maiden by 10 lengths and then won an allowance with a closing move from mid-pack. (10) Two Phil’s has three wins and makes his first start on the Tapeta after four races in graded stakes on the Derby trail. His trainer Larry Rivelli is used to running horses on synthetic surfaces and Two Phil’s seven starts were run at five different tracks. (3) Event Detail broke his maiden on the Tapeta for trainer Paulo Lobo who is a regular at Turfway. Event Detail has the right running style even though he ran poorly in the Rebel (G2) on a sloppy track. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 3, 8, 10, 11. Trifecta box: 3, 8, 10, 11.

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep - UAE Derby | March 25, 2023

Mar. 23, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $944,000 UAE Derby (G2), Saturday, Meydan – Race 5 – 9:50 a.m. ET

The UAE Derby is a [100-40-30-20-10] points qualifier on the road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. A field of 13 was drawn including two from Doug O’Neill and one from Bob Baffert. Worcester is ineligible to earn any Derby points because he is listed from the Baffert barn and the Feb. 28 deadline to be transferred has passed. Horses are listed by the Meydan program numbers. Be sure to pay attention to the horse names when you wager. (3) Cairo won his 2023 debut for Aidan O’Brien on the all-weather track at Dundalk. This is the same path that O’Brien used when he won this race with Mendelssohn. Ryan Moore will ride as O’Brien tries for his fourth win in the UAE Derby. (6) Dura Erede is one of five Japanese horses in this race. He was a Group 1 winner last year and won his only start on the dirt. He has a stalking style which is well-suited to this race. (11) Perriere was the winner of the most recent official points races on the Japanese road to the Kentucky Derby in his 2023 debut in February. (7) Go Soldier Go leads the local horses with victories in his last two stakes starts at Meydan. Betting strategy: Exacta box: 3, 6, 7, 11. Trifecta box: 3, 6, 7, 11.

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Keeneland Select Derby Prep - Louisiana Derby | March 25, 2023

Mar. 23, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $1 million Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Race 12, 5:42 p.m. Central

(2) Instant Coffee enters off a pair of stakes wins and has excellent timing since his last start. He looks to be getting better with each start for Brad Cox and seems poised for another big effort here. (4) Sun Thunder was second in the Risen Star over the track and his late kick should be aided by the added distance here. (6) Kingsbarns is undefeated in two starts for Todd Pletcher and will get tested for class. Could be dangerous on his best try. (5) Disarm may have needed his last start when he was a troubled second in his first try since August. Comes from connections who generally produce well-meant Triple Crown candidates. Betting strategy: 2 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 2-4-5-6.

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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - March 25

Mar. 23, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (10) Lyte Crude (B) had a troubled trip but still lost by less than two lengths. Adds blinkers here and should be primed for a good showing. (2) Gustavor was steadied early when finishing third. Should be a big threat here. (7) Soupersilverdollar can be a factor on his best try. (11) Super Computing is worth a look on turf. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-10-11. Doubles: 2-7-10-11 with 2-4-5-6.

2nd race – (4) Joe Di Baggio looks best in a weak field and can pay a quick dividend after a claim. (6) Pride and Passion might perk up on dirt. (2) Commanding General has speed and could be tough to catch. (5) Frolic Man fits in nicely with this group. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-6.

4th race – (5) Dr Oseran (B) chases a third straight win and will be hard to deny. (4) Crispy Cat was second in his U.S. debut and is the one to fear. (7) Marley Luck could contend off the Dobles claim. (6) Gordian Knot won on Tapeta and may relish turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5. Exactas: 4-5 over 6-7 and 6-7 over 4-5.

8th race – (6) Arina seems ready to give Chad Brown another win with a European import. (9) Keyflower is working sharply for her 2023 debut and merits respect. (1) Miss Delicious exits stakes company and fits well here. (3) Beechnut Trophy should be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-9.

10th race – (5) Sassy Nature went gate-to-wire in her turf debut and can serve up an encore here. (8) Flor de Sombra won a stakes on Tapeta and cannot be ignored here. (1) Vai Bella should be a force in the final furlong. (6) Just a Care looked good in a maiden win and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-8.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(5) Dr Oseran B, 2/2 4 GP Chases a third straight victory

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Aqueduct Hotlist - March 25

Mar. 23, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4th race [Alw 82000N1X, 6F] – (8) Kant Hurry Love (A) hopped at the start, dropped back to last, and was probably the best horse as he rallied to lose by just a nose. (1) Respectfully moves to the barn of David Jacobson after last having raced in California in December. (2) Trust the Numbers was a debut winner in February of 2022 for Chad Brown at Tampa Bay Downs as the favorite. The second and third finishers on that day both were return winners. (7) Lady Milagro has been on the lead in recent races and is projected to get loose out front in this field.

5th race [Alw 25000s, 1 3/8 mi] – (1) Good Skate has two wins and two seconds in his four starts. He was claimed for $35,000 in that sequence of races and was a front-end winner of a first-level allowance going ten-furlongs and can handle this extra long race. (7) Tonal Impact has five wins in his last seven starts with two of them for current trainer Linda Rice who claimed him for $40,000 at Churchill Downs. His wins came in a $50,000 starter allowance and a first-level allowance. (5) Locally Owned was not won in a while but was competitive against this type of horse. (6) Healing returned from a layoff to run in a turf race at Gulfstream Park and moves back to the dirt where he has several victories also.

6th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (5) Asmodeus (A) made a huge improvement when he was second by a nose after showing much more speed in his second career start. (3) Billy’s Got Issues (B) moved greenly in his debut when early in the race he was affected by the heavy kickback. (1) Legal Catch (B) returned from a long layoff in a $40,000 maiden claimer and finished second after climbing due to the kickback. (4) Moore’s Law was third in his first start for Chad Brown running behind a winner that can back to win again.

9th race [Sis City, Alw 25000s, 1 mi] – (11) Tough Street has four wins in her last five starts for Chad Brown, all at Aqueduct since October. She won a $25,000 maiden claimer to qualify for this condition. (9) Know It All Audrey was claimed for $16,000 back in September and since then has three wins and three seconds in NY-bred stakes and allowance races. That claiming race made her eligible for this level starter. (6) Movie Moxy was claimed for $25,000 in January and then won a similar starter allowance last month. (1) Dancing Sophia is part of Chris Englehart entry with Trevor McCarthy named to ride both of them, so one of them will scratch. She won her last two starts at the Big A including a $25,000 claimer from which she was taken.

Best bets: Kant Hurry Love (4th); Asmodeus (6th). Best value: Good Skate (5th); Tough Street (9th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 4-6

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Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Melting Snow 1-2 C Baker K Carmouche
2 #2 Printrack 4-5 R Atras D Davis
3 #2 Ghostlyprince 5-2 R R Rodriguez M Franco
4 #8 Kant Hurry Love 1-1 D P Duggan T McCarthy
5 #7 Tonal Impact 6-5 L Rice K Carmouche
6 #5 Asmodeus 8-5 W E Morey D Davis
7 #4 Easy Day 8-5 S A Lake K Carmouche
8 #10 Luni Sima 6-1 P R Walder E Cancel
9 #11 Tough Street 5-2 C C Brown M Franco
10 #10 No Burn 3-1 O S Barrera, III D Davis

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Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Adara 8-5 S R Viands C Marrero
2 #2 Baytown Jakester 6-5 S R Viands D Araujo
3 #6 Grace's Secret 9-5 A Farrior A Bocachica
4 #6 Scootscoot 7-2 R Handal L R Rivera, Jr.
5 #1 Leg Up 9-5 R W Brown D Araujo
6 #2 Suleman 6-1 H Laguna O Bocachica
7 #3 Bashdaflash 9-5 A H Scott, Jr. J M Nunez
8 #9 Great Spirit 9-5 C G Pickett J Montano
9 #3 Why Lea 3-1 K Gazzier M Mendez

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Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Allnight Moonlight 9-5 R Faucheux F Geroux
2 #4 Castlewarden 5-2 B H Cox F Geroux
3 #2 Free Drop Maddy 7-5 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
4 #4 Bertie's Galaxy 6-1 R Faucheux F Geroux
5 #6 Merlazza 9-5 B H Cox F Geroux
6 #1 Perfect Wish 10-1 J J Gelner C J Lanerie
7 #8 Dialherup 9-2 M Stidham F Geroux
8 #1 Adventuring 2-1 B H Cox L Saez
9 #3 West Will Power 2-1 B H Cox F Prat
10 #6 Two Emmys 3-1 H H Robertson J Graham
11 #3 Pretty Mischievous 8-5 B P Walsh B J Hernandez, Jr.
12 #2 Instant Coffee 2-1 B H Cox L Saez
13 #7 Macho Beanie 9-2 S Gelner F Geroux
14 #9 G'wildcat 4-1 K G Bourgeois G Melancon
15 #5 Custom Comedy 5-1 R Faucheux J L Rodriguez

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Racing Dudes Fonner Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Wilson to Lockett 5-2 M N Hibdon R Morales
2 #1 Aunt Irene 5-2 M N Hibdon R Morales
3 #2 Julie Jean 2-1 R D Bliss N Haar
4 #5 Mucho Macho Baby 8-1 I V Gonzalez K Roman
5 #2 Finding Silver 3-1 G W Ecoffey M T Luark
6 #3 Fabulosity 1-2 K Martinez A Martinez
7 #2 Moro Appeal 4-1 V Long J A Medina
8 #1 Sweet Tatum 5-2 S Rushton N Haar
9 #5 Ourbestfriend D L 3-1 D C Anderson N Haar
10 #8 That's D 'cat 5-1 R D Bliss R Martinez

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Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #4 Cat Bandit 8-5 S Miyadi S Rivera
2 #6 Wild Billy D 7-2 J Wong B Pena
3 #1 Gordy's Boy 8-5 S Miyadi K Radke
4 #3 Table for Two 5-2 V M Trujillo E A Roman
5 #3 Redstwirlingdancer 9-2 B D Wright W Antongeorgi III
6 #1 Applaud the Bench 9-5 I Tamayo E A Roman
7 #3 Rodrigoknows 4-1 V M Trujillo E A Roman
8 #4 Tribal Nation 9-5 A Mathis A Espinoza
9 #2 Mount Mary 9-5 S Callaghan E A Roman

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Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Dither 5-2 C Clement M A Vasquez
2 #2 Commanding General 7-2 J K Sweezey J L Ortiz
3 #11 Sebaray 5-1 J F D'Angelo J L Ortiz
4 #5 Dr Oseran 8-5 C Clement J L Ortiz
5 #3 Etnico 7-5 J Delgado J Castellano
6 #2 Aruba 8-1 J R Abreu J L Ortiz
7 #8 Marisa's Mission 5-2 M Drexler J Castellano
8 #6 Arina 5-2 C C Brown J L Ortiz
9 #2 Mr Tito's 3-1 J Garoffalo M A Vasquez
10 #7 My Sweet Affair 5-1 G Weaver E Jaramillo
11 #6 Nate the Great 7-5 S A Joseph, Jr. P Husbands

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Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 B West 9-5 J J Robb X Perez
2 #9 Shackinthebox 9-5 D R Dilodovico J Barbosa
3 #6 Long Rap Sheet 8-5 P Capuano C E Lopez
4 #5 Tenax 2-1 B E Burdick Y O Ortiz
5 #4 Forth 5-2 M Serey, Jr. L R Rivera, Jr.
6 #6 Air Token 5-2 J Corrales H Karamanos
7 #4 Liquidator 9-5 L L Albert T Lyapustina
8 #3 Heldish 6-1 M J Maker A Cruz
9 #7 Excellorator 2-1 J Ness J Rodriguez
10 #3 Torre Branca 3-1 H A Smith A Cruz

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Racing Dudes Los Alamitos Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
2 #1 Pawnee 6-1 L Ruiz E Hernandez
3 #1 Around the Dial 5-2 A M Aquino D A Herrera
4 #1 Corin 9-5 M H Taylor J M Nicasio
5 #1 Rite On 9-5 S Willoughby J Roman
1 #1 Time Is Gone 6-1 J E Crotts R Ramirez
6 #1 Really a Favorite 3-1 J A Flores E Gasca
7 #1 He Travels 4-5 S Willoughby J R Ayala
8 #1 Heza Good Reason 1-1 J A Flores C Mendez
9 #7 Cartel Kisses 2-1 M H Taylor R S Vallejo

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Racing Dudes Louisiana Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Eying Miss Deb 3-1 J L Sanchez III E Sanchez
2 #5 Lafitte 5-2 G Martinez A Alvarez
3 #4 Never Bleu 3-1 P Jourdan U Luna
4 #6 Glamour Dynasty 2-1 L Hernandez E R Hernandez
5 #8 Chendo 5-2 S Villaseca E R Hernandez
6 #7 Hell of a View 7-2 F Valdez J F Garcia, Jr.
7 #5 Hijack a Train 8-1 J Ponce N Duran

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Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #1 Megan's Clara 6-5 N W Casse D Cabrera
2 #2 Bidofhoney 9-5 S M Asmussen I Castillo
3 #5 Caballo Feliz 10-1 K G McPeek F Arrieta
4 #1 Briartown 6-1 W B Calhoun D Cabrera
5 #3 Street Art 2-1 B H Cox I Castillo
6 #5 Pearcy Road 2-1 J H Prather, Jr. I Castillo
7 #7 Good Penny 8-5 C Contreras F Arrieta
8 #4 Time Andbeyond 5-2 R Moquett R Bejarano
9 #6 Pioneer Parade 12-1 J P DiVito F Arrieta
10 #1 Klassy Bridgette 5-2 C A Hartman F Arrieta
11 #3 Ryvit 5-2 S M Asmussen K J Asmussen