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5% Big Ticket Bowl 50-24 Heater!
#278 Illinois +2
5% Big Ticket: Take Illinois (#278)
The death of popular Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach is driving the mainstream narrative for this game; a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of thought process. I’m not buying that argument one iota. We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ and a clear ‘bet-against’ for this game, setting us up for the first 5% Big Ticket Report of 2023.
When Mississippi State faced a quality defense this season, the Air Raid offense didn’t work. LSU shut them down: 16 points and 289 total yards. Kentucky shut them down: 17 points and 225 total yards. Alabama shut them down: 6 points and 293 total yards. Georgia shut them down: 19 points and 308 total yards. Heck, even Ole Miss contained this offense: 24 points and 336 total yards. All the big numbers Mississippi State put up this year came against the lesser defenses that they faced. This offense DID NOT WORK when facing a top notch stop unit.
Illinois has a top notch stop unit, plain and simple. Brett Bieliema’s team was as tough as nails on that side of the football, and this is very much a statement game for the long suffering Ilini program. In 12 games this season, the Illini allowed more than 23 points once. They held bowl teams like Michigan to 19, Minnesota to 14, Iowa to 6 and Wisconsin to 10. This secondary is loaded with NFL caliber talent; a top unit that is more than capable of controlling this game, just like they’ve done all season – that’s why Illinois is playing in their biggest bowl in decades.
The loss of Mike Leach won’t help the Bulldogs in terms of gameplanning for the Illini. On an ‘off field distractions’ scale, this one is pretty high. And the Air Raid offense has not fared particularly well off a long layoff. Mike Leach’s teams in bowls produced 20, 12, 17, 28 and 21 points in his last five bowls at Washington State: 1-4 SU and ATS. Last year, the Bulldogs lost to Texas Tech 34-7 as -10 favorites in their bowl. This is a ‘rhythm’ offense that hasn’t played since Thanksgiving Night. No surprise here if it’s an ugly showing for the Bulldogs in early start action on Monday, worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager! Big Ticket: Take Illinois
Line Parameter: 5% at pk or as an underdog, 4% at -1 or higher
5% Big Ticket Bowl 50-24 Heater!
#278 Illinois +2
5% Big Ticket: Take Illinois (#278)
The death of popular Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach is driving the mainstream narrative for this game; a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of thought process. I’m not buying that argument one iota. We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ and a clear ‘bet-against’ for this game, setting us up for the first 5% Big Ticket Report of 2023.
When Mississippi State faced a quality defense this season, the Air Raid offense didn’t work. LSU shut them down: 16 points and 289 total yards. Kentucky shut them down: 17 points and 225 total yards. Alabama shut them down: 6 points and 293 total yards. Georgia shut them down: 19 points and 308 total yards. Heck, even Ole Miss contained this offense: 24 points and 336 total yards. All the big numbers Mississippi State put up this year came against the lesser defenses that they faced. This offense DID NOT WORK when facing a top notch stop unit.
Illinois has a top notch stop unit, plain and simple. Brett Bieliema’s team was as tough as nails on that side of the football, and this is very much a statement game for the long suffering Ilini program. In 12 games this season, the Illini allowed more than 23 points once. They held bowl teams like Michigan to 19, Minnesota to 14, Iowa to 6 and Wisconsin to 10. This secondary is loaded with NFL caliber talent; a top unit that is more than capable of controlling this game, just like they’ve done all season – that’s why Illinois is playing in their biggest bowl in decades.
The loss of Mike Leach won’t help the Bulldogs in terms of gameplanning for the Illini. On an ‘off field distractions’ scale, this one is pretty high. And the Air Raid offense has not fared particularly well off a long layoff. Mike Leach’s teams in bowls produced 20, 12, 17, 28 and 21 points in his last five bowls at Washington State: 1-4 SU and ATS. Last year, the Bulldogs lost to Texas Tech 34-7 as -10 favorites in their bowl. This is a ‘rhythm’ offense that hasn’t played since Thanksgiving Night. No surprise here if it’s an ugly showing for the Bulldogs in early start action on Monday, worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager! Big Ticket: Take Illinois
Line Parameter: 5% at pk or as an underdog, 4% at -1 or higher
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