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Re: 2-11-09
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (-9) over Phoenix
11-Feb-09 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Cleveland has lost consecutive games for the first time all season, which surely doesn’t sit well with LeBron James. Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season after a loss and the only reason they didn’t win at Indiana last night was randomly disparate 3-point shooting (6 for 21 for Cleveland and 11 for 23 for Indiana). Had each team shot their expected percentage from 3-point range last night the Cavs would have won by about 10 points). James will make sure the Cavs don’t drop a 3rd straight game and Cleveland is at their best at home, where they are 18-6 ATS this season, including 6-0 ATS after a loss. All 6 of those home games after a loss have resulted in victories by 14 points or more and Cleveland also applies to a rare 31-3 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation that plays on good teams after losing the previous night. Steve Nash has a trio of nagging injuries that forced him out of their blowout loss at Philadelphia on Monday night and Nash was downgraded to doubtful a short time ago. I suspect that Nash will probably sit out tonight, but my ratings favor the Cavaliers by 7 points even if he plays at 100% effectiveness (even after adjusting a couple of points for the Cavs being without West and Pavlovic). If Nash does not play then I’d favor Cleveland by 11 points and the Cavs would have a very high percentage chance of covering the spread in this game. If Nash is 50% to play then a fair line on this game is 9 points and the line is currently 8 ½ points. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 or less, but I’d only lay 8 or less if Nash is upgraded to probable.
2-Stars at -11 or less, but only at -8 or less if Nash is upgraded to probable.
2 Star Selection
PHILADELPHIA (-11) over Memphis
11-Feb-09 04:05 PM Pacific Time
Memphis has won a couple of games in a row, but the Grizzlies apply to a negative 28-84-1 ATS big road underdog letdown situation as well as a 9-50-1 ATS situation. Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 11 games without injured Elton Brand and they are actually considerably better this season in 21 games without him than they were with Brand. The Grizzlies two recent wins have come against a struggling Toronto team and a Hornets squad playing without star Chris Paul, but Memphis has had problems against decent teams. The Grizzlies are just 24-50 ATS in their last 74 games when facing a team that is 2 games below .500 or better, including 12-43 ATS in those games when not getting more than 11 points. Memphis is better now that Darko Milicic is back in the rotation, but my ratings still favor Philly by 11 ½ points and I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.
2-Stars at -12 or less.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Southern Miss (-5) over RICE
11-Feb-09 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Southern Miss is down to a 6 man rotation due to injuries, but the Eagles should play well tonight in a slow paced game against a bad Rice team that is just 4-9 ATS as an underdog of 2 points or more this season (1-4 in conference play). Southern Miss has lost 3 consecutive games straight up and 6 in a row to the spread, but the Eagles apply to a very good 31-3 ATS subset of a 61-19-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and Larry Eustachy’s club is 11-1 ATS the last 4 seasons as a conference favorite following a conference loss. Rice is a bad offensive team that has gotten even worse the last 6 games without good shooter Lucas Kuipers, whose 48% shooting has been missed on a team that shoots just 41% from the field overall. My ratings, based on current personnel, favor Southern Miss by 6 ½ points and I’ll take Southern Miss in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars at -5 ½ or -6 points.
3-Stars at -5 or less, 2-Stars at -5 1/2 or -6.
2 Star Selection
New Mexico (-12) over AIR FORCE
11-Feb-09 07:00 PM Pacific Time
The methodical style that Air Force plays tends to work better against their non-conference foes that are not used to it, but the Falcons are 0-9 straight up and 0-9 ATS in conference games this season and just 1-10 ATS as a conference dog of 8 points or more in 2 seasons under coach Jeff Reynolds. Air Force has played the same style for some time and the better teams in the Mountain West Conference are not only prepared for the Falcons’ style of play but they are also much more talented. Air Force is just 4-35 ATS in their last 39 conference games against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better and that record isn’t likely to improve against a New Mexico squad that is 15-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under coach Steve Alford, who is 36-17-1 ATS in all games with the Lobos (7-1 ATS as a road favorite). Air Force has played 7 games this season against good teams (Stanford, San Diego State twice, New Mexico, Utah, UNLV, and BYU) and the Falcons have lost those games by an average of 22 points (by 25 at New Mexico) – including home losses of 17 points to San Diego State, by 21 points to Utah, by 21 points to UNLV, and by 21 points to BYU. New Mexico by 12 points is a fair line using all games for both teams, but I favor the Lobos by 16 ½ points in this game after adjusting for the Falcons’ level of play against better teams. I’ll take New Mexico in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
2-Stars at -12 or less, 3-Stars at -11 or less.Comment
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