9-6-08

[Mr. IWS]

Special K Sports

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20* Arizona State (Game of Week)
20* Florida Atlantic
20* Bowling Green
20* Central Michigan
20* Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

PHIL STEELE / NORTHCOAST COMPS


early bird-alabama-28'

econo#2 play texas tech-10

the college dog of the week is duke+6

power play 4 star auburn-20


NEW MEXICO+ (moutain west play)


#9 big 12 play...OKLAHOMA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Right Angle Sports

Minnesota at Bowling Green -6

With 17 returning starters (most since 8-3 team in 2001) and the benefit of extra practice time from first bowl game since 2004, the Falcons lived up to their promise with a road win at #25 Pittsburgh last week as a double digit dog. Bowling Green features a dynamic spread offense that can change tempo in a hurry and isn't afraid to mix up formations or use trickery. QB Sheehan had great numbers last year, is now more experienced, and has every single target back from last season. The Falcon defense was a pleasant surprise in the opener. More aggressive schemes and what Insiders called the best tackling they have seen from the unit in at least five years led to a shut out of the Panthers in the second half. Bowling Green is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven regular season games but oddsmakers appear slow to catch up. The Gophers needed a score with under thirty seconds left to beat Northern Illinois in their home opener. They now go on the road where they were 0-5 last year and are just 2-9 the last two years. Minnesota's rebuilt defense under first year coordinator Ted Roof still showed signs of last years struggles giving up 326 passing yards to a NIU freshman QB who was making his first career start. They will get a much tougher test this week and were given fits by spread offenses last year. The Gophers started two redshirt freshman on the offensive line and presently lack the needed depth at wide receiver to run a dangerous spread offense. This team is still a year away from becoming a factor in the Big 10. Bowling Green players and fans should be sky high for this game as they are coming off a road win over a ranked opponent and now will host the first Big 10 team to ever play in Perry Stadium, at night and on ESPNU no less. Give the points.

Play: Bowling Green -6 1 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

CKO

11* N Dame

10* Minn
10* Wisc
10* Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

GREG SHAKER

NCAAF: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks - Kansas -20 -110
Game Date: 9/6/2008
Note: I don't know which way this line will go, but my best educated guess is that it will go upward when it is all said and done. For now it has dropped 1/2 point. That is why I am getting on it now and there is good reason to believe that we will see a large pointspread win by the Jayhawks. I am not one to lay very many large spreads but I certainly will here. Everything went right for La Tech in their home opener with the visiting Bulldogs of Miss State as they failed miserably in that contest. Miss State threw 3 Int's, they has numerous offensive mishaps, not caused by La Tech's D. La Tech was outgained in this game, and they managed just 14 of 40 completions with 2 Int's. They also ran the ball for only about 3 yards per rush. Those same numbers are not going to get them anywhere as they travel to Lawrence Kansas to play a Jayhawk team that was 8th overall in the country on offense production and 12th overall on D last year. This team has 15 starters returning, including very talented QB Todd Reesing. They were an amazing 11-1 verses the spread last year, making them a bettor's dream. With almost the entire D back, I can't see the visiting Bulldogs having much success moving the ball and putting points on the board. I can see Kansas gathering up 40+ points. I think that we will see that. There is great optimism in Ruston Louisiana about the their team. Even former Bulldog Terry Bradshaw is pumped about their chances this year. But, they are coming off one of their largest wins ever, and they are traveling to a venue that could spell disaster. The Jayhawks punished the poor squads last year at home. Baylor caught a 58-10 whooping. Nebraska got blown clean out of the stadium 76-39. Iowa State lost 45-7. Fla Int lost 55-3. Toledo, Southeastern La, and Central Michigan lost by combined scores of 159-20. BINGO!! Let's enjoy this rout.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Ted Sevransky
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 67 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK:
Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against ‘real’ defenses before they can get in to any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007, scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Over’s to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders. Head coach Mike Leach: “We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball.” Third year quarterback starter Graham Harrell: “That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better.” I expect a focused, well executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.


But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year; six points higher than that at home. Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total. (#335-336) Take the Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

KING CREOLE

90% ATS System

Northwestern Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils
Play on: DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Since this System hit on Thursday night with VANDERBILT... and it has another qualifier on Saturday, count me IN! Most players are aware that Duke's win over Northwestern last year probably kept the Wildcats out of a Bowl appearance. So there's big time REVENGE going here. But like the Commodores proved 2 nights ago, sometimes it's better to play INTO Revenge.

27-13 ATS since 1980: GAME TWO home DOGS (Duke) playing INTO non-conference Revenge. Shorter dogs of +7.5 or less points have gone 20-8 ATS in this same time span... and an almost PERFECT 9-1 ATS since 1998.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

David Malinsky

Georgia Tech @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -6.5

One of our prime axioms in college sports is that when major system changes are made in a program the team is likely to take a step backwards regardless of how good the new coach is. We used that to cash an easy ticket against S.M.U. and June Jones last week, and we see more of the same against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech here, particularly based on the matchups at hand in this game.

Johnson has brought the complex option packages that were so successful at Navy to the Yellow Jackets, and while he will be successful in time, the transition period will be rocky. It was an ugly spring, with 14 fumbles in one April scrimmage, and then nine in the spring game, and despite running mostly vanilla plays against Jacksonville State last week the offense still fumbled five times, losing two. That was against an opponent that they could push around in the trenches, which kept option plays and passes to a minimum, but now it is an entirely different matchup. Not only are they heading to the road, but Boston College brings one of the toughest defensive front seven’s in the nation. The Eagles were #2 against the run LY despite playing without N. J. Raji (academics) and Brian Toal (red-shirt), but now those two are back to create a wall that will not allow much of anything between the tackles. That means that soph QB Josh Nesbitt will have to make things happen on the perimeter in his first college road start, and also through the air. That is unlikely to happen. The B. C. defense held a more experienced Tech offense to 267 yards in an easy 24-10 road win LY, and now the setting is even more favorable.

The inexperience of Nesbitt is only the beginning of Johnson’s problems, however. There are 16 players on the two-deep chart that have never played a single down on the road, including five starters. And with new systems on both sides of the ball, that means the kind of mistakes that come with youth. There is also a major cluster injury problem at LB, with starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes sidelined, which makes them extremely thin, and will force a pair of true freshmen into action. From Johnson - ”We’re probably going to have our hands forced and we’re going to have to play more of them (freshmen). Just from the standpoint of depth, we just don’t have anybody.”

Because of the inexperience with his playbook Johnson would like to not reach back into his bag of tricks, but he may have to in order to have any chance here. But keep in mind that B. C. defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani was the interim head coach when the Eagles beat Johnson and his Navy team in a bowl game in December of 2006, which meant nearly a full month of studying Johnson’s tactics then, and with many of the same faces still playing for the Eagles, it helps to have them well-prepared now.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Gold Sheet Phone Plays

Top...E Car
Reg...Fla--Houston--Kan--MdTnSt

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

John Ryan

5* graded play on Florida - Ai Simulator shows an 81% probability that Florida will win this game by 22 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Florida will outgain Miami by a MINIMUM of 2.0 yards per play and also gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yard converting into a MINIMUM of 6.5 yards per play. Note that Florida is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. AiS further shows a 93% probability that Florida will score 28 or more points and a 75% probability that they score 42 or more points. Notet that Florida is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points since 1992. Miami is off a 52-7 blowout win over Charleston Southern. Miami is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Converseley, Florida is off a nice win fo their own defeating Hawaii 56-10 and covering a 36 point spread. Note that HC Myer is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.

5* graded play on Washington State - Ai Simulator shows a 78% probability that WSU will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. if you had my Thursday night shocking winner on Vanderbilt whereI also added a 1.5* money line amount at +350, this play shapes up in a near identical framework. If available I suggest adding another 1* amount and expect to get near +400 or even a little more for this wager. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that WSU will score 28 or more points. Note that Cal is just 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Cal has been a losing investment in this role noting they are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has hit 114-58 making 56.5 units for 66% over the past `10 seasons. Play against a road team versus the money line in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters facin an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters. WSU has a strong history of playing at full potential in home openers. The Cougars have won seven consecutive Martin Stadium openers, and 14 of their last 16. Since the formation of the Pacific-10 Conference in 1978, the Cougars have played their first Martin Stadium game of a particular season against a league foe nine times. WSU is an even 4-4-1 in those games. Take WSU.


5* graded play on Florida Atlantic - Ai Simulator shows an 82 % probability that FA will win this game by 14 or more points. FA has hardly had any games where they have a solid chance to win bog adn also score a ton of point. HC Schnellenberger will make certain that his team is fully perpraed adn focused for this opportunity. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 18 or more points. Note that FA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Interesting to note too is the betting pubic has been dead wrong most of the time when the moving the line in FA games. The public has a record of 29% ATS for a 9-22 mark ATS 1992 when moving FA lines. This line opened at 14.5 adn is currently offered at 12.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Take Florida Atlantic.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Marc Lawrence

5* Penn State
4* Auburn
3* Miami-Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

REAL ANIMAL FREE PICK

Pick title: 2* Miami of Ohio +14 1/2
Pick Date: 09/06/2008
Pick description:
After watching Vanderbilt take apart South Carolina in the 2nd half on Thursday, maybe it wasn’t so bad that Miami of Ohio was only out-gained by the Commodores by 20 yards last week. Also not bad considering Redhawk QB Daniel Raudabaugh threw three interceptions, Vanderbilt scored on a 91-yard punt return, and the visitor was only called for two penalties. Certainly Utah is a solid team. But how many MWC squads in the past 20 years come to the Big House and beat Michigan? The Wolverines had 11 first downs and it was apparent, until the 4th quarter, they were clueless under the new system put in by Coach Rodriguez. The spread offense produced 11 first downs and 36 yards rushing. Mike Hart normally had 36 yards in a quarter. Also don’t be misled by Michigan’s 4th quarter comeback. It was significantly aided by a Utah fumble, a blocked punt, and penalties called on the Utes (15-for-137). If Utah didn’t kick four field goals, the score would have been lopsided. Michigan is a very young team, especially on offense. They will have serious growing pains learning the Rodriguez approach. To make matters worse after losing their two stud receivers in Manningham and Breaston to graduation, last week their best active receiver, Greg Mathews, is doubtful this week because of an ankle injury sustained against Utah. Miami of Ohio is an experienced team with 17 starters back and that’s what you need to rebound from the Vanderbilt game. It’s always a big deal for a MAC team to travel into the Big 10. The RedHawks are 5-1 ATS as a visiting underdog recently after an upset loss as a favorite. Teams with 17 starters or more returning to a team are 25-9 ATS in game #2 if they lost the opener SU and ATS. This figures to be a low scoring game (total 40 ½) and two touchdowns with change looks very appealing. Michigan is 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 24 in Ann Arbor. They are 2-7 ATS recently when hosting non-Big 10 teams and 1-3 ATS versus MAC teams. Take away turnovers and special team mishaps and Miami of Ohio played Vanderbilt even. Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal but knowing Coach Spurrier is 0-2 SU the last two years against the Commodores has me believing Miami can stay competitive here. It certainly isn’t the first time a Michigan number is inflated.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

purelock ?
CFB: Arizona State

MLB: Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK

25 DIME

KANSAS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-6-08

Teddy Covers 20* is California
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