Saturday 1/15/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Betting with, and against, Straight Up G, in the California Cup Derby
John Mucciolo

A field of six California-bred sophomores will go postward in the $200,000 California Cup Derby at Santa Anita on Saturday. The race is led by impressive King Glorious S. star #5 Straight Up G (4-5) from the barn of Richard Baltas. The Jungle Racing homebred has reeled off two facile wins in succession and hopes to make it three in his first try at 1 1/16 miles.
Straight Up G – With

$30 exacta 5 with 3 ($30)

Straight Up G – Against

$30 win #3 Fast Draw Munnings ($30)

Bet Santa Anita Live Racing here!

Straight Up G ran evenly on debut when fourth in a sprint at Santa Anita as an even-money favorite, but the son of Straight Fire showed marked improvement second out when dominating maiden special weight foes at Del Mar. In his route debut at Los Alamitos, while facing stakes foes, the talented bay established the early lead and left little doubt late in his 3 1/2-length romp, which garnered him a solid 92 Brisnet Speed figure in the process.

The morning-line choice has trained well in the interim and the race goes through him and pilot Ricardo Gonzalez. Straight Up G will be formidable with another step forward, but if he regresses any in his second try at The Great Race Place, then #3 Fast Draw Munnings (4-1) will be the most likely upsetter.

Trained by Jeff Mullins, Fast Draw Munnings was a first-out winner and subsequently placed in two stakes, finishing third in both the Golden State Juvenile and King Glorious. By Munnings, the three-year-old has positional speed combined with a turn of foot, and his even third-place result behind the top pick last time out might have been better than it appears on paper.

The bay smoked a swift five-eighths on the course in advance of Saturday, and he will enjoy a fine trip following the favorite every step of the way. Drayden Van Dyke riding adds to his appeal.

I am still not convinced that #4 Finneus (5-2) will do his best work at two turns and consider him a play-against at short odds. The talented Walther Solis pupil had a fine juvenile campaign and is training fast, but I will take a stand against the late runner on this occasion.

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2022 Gasparilla Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires)

1. HA’ PENNY (20-1) – She didn’t show much first out when breaking slow and racing far behind a tepid pace on the Tapeta, but follow-up was much better. She showed more early foot and obviously handled the sloppy conditions well enough to post a 17-1 upset. Fast ground, presumably, won’t be a deterrent, and she adds Lasix and retains a favorable inside post. By Medaglia d’Oro and out of a G3-winning mare, she remains with upside.

2. DEVINE CHARGER (4-1) – After starting her career on turf, she’s displayed a lot more promise on dirt in her last two. Edged late at Churchill by Girl With a Dream, who came back to win the Letellier Memorial at Fair Grounds, and last time couldn’t quite get past Strategic Bird after hounding her most of the way. Chance the additional furlong will work better for her this time if she reverts to a stalk-and-pounce strategy, rather than a pressing one. Lots to like in this rematch.

3. SHE NASTY (15-1) – Handles pretty much any non-turf surface you ask her to negotiate, and will to win is obviously there after six starts. The main knock is that most of her wins have been in starter allowances, which she qualified for right away when debuting on June 25. Facing fillies with more of a past in allowances and stakes is a different matter. Stable’s two prior runners this meet ran well, and perhaps capable of picking up some pieces if the pace is hot enough.

4. GODDESS OF FIRE (9-2) – Saratoga grad, a half-sister to multiple G1 winner Mind Control, failed to keep up in two prior stakes attempts. This spot is seemingly easier, though, and every horse Pletcher has run here this winter has been live. That fact, of course, will likely drag her price down below the 9-2 ML, and she will have to step up her game to justify that backing.

5. OUTFOXED (2-1) – Third to likely division champ Echo Zulu first out, she subsequently dominated in both the Susan’s Girl and My Dear Girl legs of the Florida Sires Stakes. Earned relatively strong Brisnet Speed ratings in both, and has so far justified her $360K yearling price. Only concern here is whether she’ll have any fitness issues having not raced in nearly four months, but that’s a minor quibble. Figures tough.

6. PLATINUM GEM (8-1) – Proved too fast for both her maiden and allowance rivals over this track in December, contributing to trainer Bowersock’s hot start to the meet. The downside is that she’ll face a lot more competition in the early stages of this race, while being asked to stretch that good speed of hers through a seventh furlong for the first time. Taking a cautious view as she steps up in class.

7. EROS’S GIRL (15-1) – Finger Lakes grad rebounded nicely at big odds to finish second to Platinum Gem in a Dec. 24 allowance here. However, she encounters the same potential class questions here as that rival, especially after such a dull try in her only prior stakes attempts against New York-breds. Minor share arguably the best-case scenario.

8. STRATEGIC BIRD (5-2) dug in gamely to repel Devine Charger in the Sandpiper S. over six furlongs here on Dec. 4, the kind of race she probably needed to instill toughness after encountering little resistance in her Florida-bred debut. Figures a little busier up front in this race, and she wouldn’t want to get caught up in a contested duel, but outside draw potentially favorable in those circumstances and it gives Gallardo options to test her rating skills if Platinum Gem hits the gas hard leaving the gate. Logical threat.

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Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (January 15)

Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 9 races from 10:45 to 18:00. All betting locations are open but attendance must be pre-booked through the MyCard app and proof of up to date vaccination against Covid-19 is required. Here are the previews:

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maidens to kick things off with three of the twelve racing for the very first time. One of those debut makers is set to be favourite. (10) QUICKLY RUN trialed up very nicely when leading and ultimately running a close 2nd behind an experienced racehorse and ahead of one who has gone on to run 2nd three times. It was all the way back in September, but she will be expected to win first-up here. Much of that is to do with the exposed form of the rest. (1) SKY PANGPANG looks the best of those with experience, having overcome a slow start to run on well for 4th on debut on December 2nd. He gets a netter draw today and with a better start can get closer. (11) BEAT UP didn’t have much luck on debut but looks to have scope to improve. (8) EUNHYE DREAM made steady progress from start one to start two and can maintain that momentum today. Returning to the first-timers, (9) USEUNG BARAM trialed adequately and may be considered first up.
Selections (10) Quickly Run (1) Sky Pangpang (11) Beat Up (8) Eunhye Dream
Next Best 9, 7
Fast Start 3, 5, 6, 10

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(7) WARRIOR THUNDER is a warm favourite here. Two starts back he ran 2nd over 1300M and last time out was on pace at this distance, finishing in 4th place and recording a time faster than anything else in this race has achieved. He’ll be on pace again and a similar run in this company can see him win. (3) HAPPY DREAM was stepped up to this distance at start number five on December 12th having previously been so slow she was sent back to trial after all but one previous attempt. She ran better, finishing 3rd in an admittedly pedestrian race, but with some natural improvement, a good draw and Munro remaining aboard, there are reasons to be optimistic here. (9) DREAM SPEED has been consistent if unspectacular across four outings to date. She ran a decent 5th at this distance last time and consistent if unspectacular should be enough to se her to a place here. (5) M J STORM and first-time starter (2) TIZ RUNNER others who can aim for minor money.
Selections (7) Warrior Thunder (3) Happy Dream (9) Dream Speed (5) M J Storm
Next Best 2, 8
Fast Start 2, 6, 9, 7

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

We’ll take a chance on (1) JILJU BORN here. He races for the first time since last July but is a front-runner who recorded a fast time over 1000M. He trialed up very well in December leading almost the entire way around before crossing the line in 2nd place and from a great inside draw, he may get a soft lead and potentially go all the way. Otherwise, all roads lead to (8) GEUMGUKHWA. She has the fastest time among these at this distance as well as being the only one with a top-two finish to her name. She was difficult to load last time and returned with speedy cuts after being a well beaten odds-on favourite. In this company though she is absolutely worth another chance. Solitary debut-maker (10) DREAM YEOWANG made all to win a Christmas Eve trial and should be in the frame first-up. (4) NEW HOPE and (11) RAON THE WILD are others who can place.
Selections (1) Jilju Born (8) Geumgukhwa (10) Dream Yeowang (4) New Hope
Next Best 11, 12
Fast Start 1, 5, 8, 12

Seoul Race 4: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(4) KING CRUSH may not have finished any better than 4th across his five starts to date but he has some very good performances at this distance including a 4th and a 5th from his latest two in good times. He draws nicely today and should be on or close to the place and has solid claims to make his breakthrough here. (6) SOJUNGHAN DANGSIN comes down in trip and, with an apprentice on board, down in the weights too from her 3rd place in a slow race over 1400M on December 11th. That was her best finish to date and nicely in here, she can match or better it. (3) JILJU JEONSA improved into 3rd at his latest start on December 18th when settling in midfield and running on over 1200M. He comes up to this trip or the first time today and it may well suit. (7) GEOSEN GISANG and (11) DANCE MACHINE among others to take into consideration.
Selections (4) King Crush (6) Sojunghan Dangsin (3) Jilju Jeonsa (7) Geosen Gisang
Next Best 11, 9
Fast Start 3, 4, 7, 9

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

A big field here but we’re likely to have a strong favourite in the shape of (12) POWER BOX. He was a strong winner over 1000M last September before using up a lot of energy to get to the front from a wide draw on his first try at this class and distance in October, ultimately weakening. Drawn wide again at his latest start on November 28th, he was ridden more patiently and ran on well for 2nd. Kim Yong-geun knows the horse well and he can make the breakthrough today. (7) GRAY CAT overcame a wide draw to run 3rd in a fast time over 1300M on December 18th. He now has four top-three finishes form ten starts and while he may find one or two too quick again, he can maintain that record here. (11) TAP QUALITY and (14) DUSON FANTASTIC both had poor days at the office on their respective latest starts but are better than that and can be involved here. (4) FOREVER KHAN too struggled on his first try at this class but can be given another chance today.
Selections (12) Power Box (7) Gray Cat (11) Tap Quality (14) Duson Fantastic
Next Best 4, 6
Fast Start 1, 6, 9, 12

Seoul Race 6: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Tricky race this. (7) P N S LUCKY comes out of the Breeders’ Cup champion juvenile race on December 5th where she ran 8th of 12 but in a creditable time. She had previously run a blistering 59.7 over the five furlongs at the end of October. Back in more limited company today, she has every chance of returning to the winner’s circle. (3) HOLIDAY CHARM was a class and distance winner two starts back when running on strongly from midfield in a good time. He is up 3kg on that and did struggle on his return on December 19th, but he draws a much better gate this time and can be given another chance. (10) HYPER CAR returned from more than six months out to run a good 4th at class and distance on December 11th. He is yet to win but has six top-three finishes from twelve starts and can be in the mix here. The up in class but significantly down in weight (2) BARAMGWA HAMKKE might warrant an each-way chance alongside (4) ILBO DEUNGCHEON.
Selections (7) P N S Lucky (3) Holiday Charm (10) Hyper Car (2) Baramgwa Hamkke
Next Best 4, 12
Fast Start 7, 8, 11, 14

Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

Small field but a hot favourite here. (5) CHOEGANG GAME comes in having run 4th in the Korean Derby and then 3rd in the Minister’s Cup, the final two legs of the 2021 Triple Crown. He had a win record of three from four before those races and the time he had to run in the Derby at this distance was almost three seconds faster than anything else in this race has achieved. He gives weight away, but he looks very hard to beat. (4) SERVE ACE comes out of the filly Triple Crown where she ran a big 3rd in the Oaks having missed the break before not quite seeing out the 2000M of the Gyeonggi Governor’s Cup. It’s hard to see her beating the favourite here but she should beat plenty of the rest. (1) GEUMA SUPREME and (2) QUIET ADELE are generally knocking on the door at class and distance and along with (9) SISEONJIPJUNG, can compete for the minor places.
Selections (5) Choegang Game (4) Serve Ace (1) Geuma Supreme (2) Quiet Adele
Next Best 9, 6
Fast Start 3, 4, 5, 6

Seoul Race 8: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(5) MYEONGJIN DAY returned from eight months out to run a good 3rd place at class and distance on December 19th in a good time. He has never been worse than 4th and should come on for that run looking very much the one to beat here. (6) ROCK LINE comes in off a good win at this class over 1200M on December 12th when he sat behind the speed and then ran on strong. At the start before he was a close 3rd at this distance. He does come up 3.5kg in the weights today but should be in the hunt again. Those two are by some margin the standouts. (7) BLACK PUNCH was a much-improved 4th at his latest start and can maintain that progress today. (3) SUN FO RE mixes his form but has a number of minor money finishes and can be competitive here. Debut-maker (2) MUNHAK DIAL may beat a few.
Selections (5) Myeongjin Day (6) Rock Line (7) Black Punch (3) Sun For Re
Next Best 2, 8
Fast Start 1, 6, 10, 12

Seoul Race 9: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

(14) MIGHTY BOOM beat several of these on her way to a close 2nd place finish at class and distance on December 12th when sitting just behind the speed and running on. She comes up 2kg in the weights today and draws even further out than last time (she had gate 12) but she can overcome both and go one better here. The draw though does hand the initiative over to (4) MONSTER K, who ran 3rd in that race. He has won at the distance at class 4 level and will be a big danger today, most likely leading from the start. (7) SOUL MERIT come sup in class following a smart victory over 1200M back in November. He has run good times at this distance too and comes down in the weights here. (13) ROYAL ELVIS and (6) GLOBAL THUNDER are others who should be close.
Selections (14) Mighty Boom (4) Monster K (7) Soul Merit (13) Royal Elvis
Next Best 6, 8
Fast Start 4, 5, 6, 14

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Piassek's Plays: Sunshine State Selections for Tampa Bay Downs
by John Piassek

Saturday, Jan. 15

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6, $125,000 Gasparilla Stakes, post time 2:50 p.m.
Television schedule

Friday, Jan. 14: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Jan. 15: 2:30 p.m.-4 p.m. on FS2; 4 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Jan. 16: 2:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. on FS2; 4:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Monday, Jan. 17: post time varies on TVG

#8 Strategic Bird: A field of eight 3-year-old fillies will compete in this seven-furlong race. Strategic Bird, for trainer Mark Casse and leading jockey Antonio Gallardo, broke her maiden in impressive fashion on debut at Gulfstream Park, and then turned in a gutsy effort to win the Sandpiper Stakes last out. She set a very fast early pace, including an opening quarter in 21.93 seconds and a first half in 44.91 seconds, but she held off the challenge of Devine Charger down the stretch and prevailed by a head. She looks like a filly with a big future and should be tough to catch on the front end once again. It wouldn't surprise if she emerged as a serious contender for the Longines Kentucky Oaks.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on 8

$5 exacta, 8 with 5

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$11 to win on 8

$7 exacta, 8 with 5, 6 ($14 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$24 to win on 8

$13 exacta, 8 with 5, 6 ($26 total)

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, post time 3:55 p.m. ET

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#4 Patriot Drive: This second-level allowance optional claiming race on grass features two horses coming off long layoffs who are likely to take lots of money. Hidden Stash finished second, beaten less than a length, in last year's Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, but he hasn't been seen since posting a 14th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Kuramata, the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Chad Brown, was impressive last spring. He's making his first start since last May's Dinner Party Stakes at Pimlico. Both of these horses are up against it first off the bench.

Patriot Drive, by contrast, has good rcent form. He made his first start off a brief layoff last out at this level and closed well while racing wide to get second, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. He finished ahead of several horses in this field in that race. This is his second start for trainer Dennis Ward, who has enjoyed success so far at the Tampa Bay meet. He should offer great value in a race with some vulnerable favorites.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$6 to win on 4

$2 exacta, 4 with 5, 6 ($4 total)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$9 to win on 4

$5 exacta, 4 with 5, 6 ($10 total)

$1 trifecta, 4 with 5, 6 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 ($6 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$18 to win on 4

$10 exacta, 4 with 5, 6 ($20 total)

$2 trifecta, 4 with 5, 6 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 ($12 total)

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Which Horse Will Finish First in the Fifth Season Stakes?
by Ellis Starr

Nine horses are entered Saturday in the $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park, including the 2019 and 2021 winners of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Long Range Toddy and Concert Tour, respectively. Long Range Toddy is winless in 16 races since then, while Concert Tour, last seen finishing ninth of 10 in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, returns from an eight-month layoff and a change to the barn of Brad Cox. Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races, but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the Grade 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs.
Television schedule

Thursday, Jan. 13: post time varies on TVG

Friday, Jan. 14: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Jan. 15: 2:30 p.m.-4 p.m. on FS2; 4 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Jan. 16: 2:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. on FS2; 4:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Monday, Jan. 17: post time varies on TVG

Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor’s Cup Stakes in August. Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second-place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top contenders:

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip. That means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November 2020 and, after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10, finishing second in two others and third another time. Last October, Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, and then, after two months off, he led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at 1 1/8 miles, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends, so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when he took the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure. After a poor sixth-place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in fall 2020 off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Handicap last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 42 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

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Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by 4 1/4 lengths in geared down fashion. After a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby, then showed up in the Preakness. He ran the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year’s Fifth Season.

The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figures): Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:

Thomas Shelby

Silver Prospector

Concert Tour

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita: Playing the late Pick 5 on Jan. 15
John Mucciolo

Four stakes races are included in the late Pick 5 wager at Santa Anita on Saturday. Here is how I view the California-bred races, followed by my affordable ticket.

RELATED: Money Management for Winners by Frank Scantoni
Race 6 – Unusual Heat Turf Classic S.

A tough turf endeavor at 1 1/8 miles for the boys kicks off the sequence, and if I can move past the opening leg, then my confidence level will skyrocket. #8 Indian Peak (3-1) ran a few excellent races on the green in 2021, including a fast-closing third in the Seabiscuit H. (G2) at Del Mar two back. The Comic Strip gelding will be tough to upend with a repeat of that performance under Johnnie V.

In addition, I will take a shot with #7 Ferrariano (12-1) at big odds for Brian Koriner. The gelded chestnut took a nice move forward since moving to route racing four back, and if the removal of blinkers does the same, the son of Mshawish could be in with an upset chance late. Regular pilot Abel Cedillo stays.
Race 7 – Allowance/Optional Claiming

This six-furlong dash on the main oval for the boys attracted a competitive field of eight. My top pick is #8 Crash Corrigan (7-2), who has shown solid improvement since having the blinkers removed three back.

#4 Gate of Heaven (3-1) with Flavien Prat, and Mark Glatt’s #2 Scary Fast Smile (7-2), will be included in a tricky heat.
Race 8 – Filly and Mare Turf S.

An overflow field of 13 fillies and mares will take aim at this grassy dash. #12 Leggs Galore (3-1) is five-for-six sprinting on the green and draws well for Phil D’Amato. The fleet five-year-old will make her presence felt from the start in hopes of defending her title.

#9 Warren’s Showtime (5-2) always fires and is a must use for trainer Craig Lewis. The Clubhouse Ride five-year-old is six-for-12 at Santa Anita, and she is a winner from her lone try at the distance.

Two longshots that I will also toss in are #4 Nardini (12-1), who was runner-up in the race in 2021, and Ben Cecil’s #11 Eddie’s New Dream (15-1), who is dangerous at a huge price on the cutback in distance.
Race 9 – California Cup Sprint S.

A total of eight California-bred sprinters will vie in this heat. #3 Brickyard Ride (9-5) will relish both the class drop and return to Santa Anita in this endeavor. The Craig Lewis trainee is six-for-nine on the surface, which includes a daylight victory in the race last season. He’s no cinch, but the son of Clubhouse Ride is a logical wire-to-wire threat.
Race 10 – California Cup Oaks

The finale attracted a dozen three-year-old fillies going one-mile on the turf. #1 Big Novel (4-1) has never raced on turf, but if the John Sadler pupil runs to her pedigree, she will be a major factor from the rail. The talented gray has been training like a filly sitting on a career-best effort.

#3 Vivacious Vanessa (4-1) and #11 Rose Dawson (7-2) also makes the ticket.
Santa Anita Pick 5 Wager

50-cent Pick 5: 7, 8 with 2, 4, 8 with 4, 9, 11, 12 with 3 with 1, 3, 11 ($36)

Good Luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting the Pasco Stakes no easy task
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

1. Provocateur – (A. Gallardo; T. Pletcher) 3-1: This good-looking bay son by Into Mischief hails from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm. Each year Pletcher deploys part of his string up to Tampa to pick off these lucrative stakes and is usually well represented. Provocateur started long on the turf at Belmont in the late fall, which tells me that the barn thinks he is a distance horse. That day he didn’t show much run as the favorite but came back in a pair of sprints and looks to be coming around nicely. The way he polished off his maiden win over this track suggests he has plenty of upside. However, there is concern about him going from the outside stalking trip he had to a potentially pressing rail trip with other speed to his outside. WIN CONTENDER.

2. Cyberviking – (C. Sutherland; J. Delgado) 7-2: In his last two races, Cyberviking showed some versatility which is a good racehorse trait. Two back, he dueled on the lead while three wide, and when he made the lead, he waited on foes. He dug in well and won better than the head margin suggests. In his last race, he was outsprinted early but made a wide-sweeping move into an ok pace. I like when horses show different dynamics and can overcome adversity. That said, he is coming from cheaper races and will have to take a step forward to get his picture taken, but he does seem to have ability. WIN CONTENDER.

3. Morgan Point – (J. Jude; C. Stewart) 10-1: In his last race, Morgan Point fell out the back of a sharp pace but rallied wide and won off. During his rally, he lugged in and drifted a bit. But he won with his ears up and looking for more. Again, I see some talent in the youngster, but he needs to mature and run straight to contend with these. His pilot, Sammy Camacho, opts off him to ride the morning line favorite. LONGSHOT CHANCE.

4. Markhamian – (M. Meneses; J. Avila) 4-1: Juan Avila brings this Florida-bred son of Social Inclusion up north off a decent maiden score at Gulfstream. In that win, he tracked the pace three-wide around the turn and won off in a way that would suggest he can stretch out. This seems like a logical step. However, he will have to improve a bit on speed figures and wade out into open company. OUTSIDER.

5. Cattin - (S. Camacho; R. Nicks) 2-1: This Florida bred son comes into The Pasco with “street cred.” He ran in two Florida Stallion series races last year and then came back off the bench to win the 6F Inaugural stakes right here at Tampa. Cattin took a step on The Sheets in that win, and I expect further improvement. WIN CONTENDER.

6. Gold Special – (L. Panici; A. Rodriguez) 10-1: Clearly the most experienced of the field, this charge will be rolling late if the pace is hot. He owns five in-the-money finishes out of 8 attempts, but he has finished behind a few of these in the past. OUTSIDER.

7. Magical Mousse – (I. Castillo; J. Cruz) 12-1: A speedy sort from an outside box getting blinkers for the first time alerts me to a possible pacesetter. He broke his maiden while on the engine for a tag of 40k before being sent off at 5.30-1 in the aforementioned Inaugural Stakes. Cattin was 4.70-1 in there, so somebody thought he had some ability. However, he dueled through sharp fractions in that stake race and wilted. I would expect him to improve first-time blinkers (trainer is 18%), and if they leave him alone early, he may get brave. BOARD CONTENDER.



Analysis

These types of races generally go through the Pletcher Army. Todd shipped Provocateur to Tampa to get a spin on the track in a 25k MSW. It clearly wasn’t a money grab but could potentially have been a dress rehearsal for bigger things to come.

Provocateur is fast enough to clear most of the field, save the outside horse. I can see him getting a nice cozy stalking trip.

Cattin seems like the goods. He is the most accomplished. It’s a logical progression for him, and he is the worthy 2-1 morning-line favorite.

Cyberviking has upside but gets the acid test here. Morgan Point will need to improve, but you will get paid if he does. Finally, Magical Mouse will take them as far as he can and may hang around for a slice.

If they hang Provocateur anywhere close to his morning line of 7-2, he’s my guy. I don’t think he will be that price, so a win bet may not be in the cards. I will try and get one of the longer prices underneath and hope that Cattin regresses at the 2-1 ML. If Cattin floats up and Provocateur down, that may switch in my play.



The BET based on $100

$30 exacta 1-37 = 60

$12 exacta 37-1 = 24

$16 exacta 1-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

January 15, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, the Meadowlands has a 15-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 beginning in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Mayhem Hanover (7/2)-Gets some needed class relief and was off almost a month before last week's start. Bartlett sticks and he should have the Cullipher trainee forwardly placed throughout.
5-As Always (5-1)-Engblom pupil is entered in the Mixed Sale at the Big M on Monday. This is a test but has been in sharp form and this 4-year-old should be dialed on high for another picture.
6-Walknafter Midnight (12-1)-Drop to a good level and should be rolling late. Looking for a lively pace and Callahan can have the 4-year-old in striking range to close fastest of all.

Race 7

2-Darlene Hanover (10-1)-Was off 3 weeks before the last start and raced better than the line looks. Did roll the back half in 55.3 and gets a positive driver change in Brennan. Could be overlooked at the windows and has hit the board in 4 of 11 at M1 with 2 pictures.
4-HL Revadon (5-1)-Comes off some even efforts but does get considerable class relief tonight. Likes the Big M hitting the board in 20 of 32 and has posted 7 wins. Could be sitting on big try at a fair price.
10-Double Account (8-1)-The post makes the price and did win here at this level on 12-18 from the 4 hole. Bartlett sticks and has the gate speed to get a good seat in a contentious affair.

Race 8

7-Belmont Major N (5-1)-Raced well in a needed start and this will be the 2nd time on Lasix. Zeron should have the pedal down and can be in the hunt at the wire. This is another entry in the Monday sale and could put on a good show tonight.
8-Mr DS Rock (2-1)-Winner of 2 straight and did beat the $90,000 claimers in last drawing off by over 3 lengths. Alexander entry falls into a spot to shine due to its TM rating. Can leave in a hurry and should be tough to beat with a smooth journey.

Race 9

4-Trump Nation (3-1)-Burke sends out a pair (4-7), both could be posing, and this is where Gingras chose to land. Has been battling hard and drops to a comfortable spot. Could get on the point and finally seal the deal.
6-The Bird Dance N (9/2)-Drops in the 2nd start since 11-24 and raced well last week rolling the 2nd half in 54.3. The Drennan barn is posting 29% winners over the past 30 days. Has had issues but comes right back in sequence here and was facing tough foes at Plainridge.
7-Put To Right (7/2)-Wasn't Gingras choice but has raced well in 2 of 3 local starts. Finished 2nd twice, then was stuck with post 9 and got parked the mile in the other M1 race. Joe B has steered here, and he could work a stalking trip to score a mild upset.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,5,6/2,4,10/7,8/4,6,7
Total Bet=$27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - Jan. 15, 2022

January 15, 2022

“What You Need to Know” for Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Worse Read Sanchez

Forecast: With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, Worse Read Sanchez gets ideal conditions to earn his maiden diploma in this mile turf event for maiden 3-year-olds. The son of Square Eddie ran better than the line will show when overcoming early trouble to rally widest of all entering the lane and keeping to his task late to wind up a closing fourth here on New Year’s Day. The D. O’Neill-trained colt adds blinkers, is comfortably drawn inside, shows a nice, easy breeze since raced and really doesn’t have all that much to beat in this event restricted to Cal-bred runners. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Fore Flag (January 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: C
Outside Girl Ranger (5f, 1:02.1h) but was unable to stay with that one through the lane despite urging, final half mile on our watches in :24 flat and :50.3., a few lengths back at the wire. Form isn’t bad but this was hardly inspiring.
View Workout Video


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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Cause She’s A Lady

Forecast: Cause She’s a Lady, freshened since October and making the all-important class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming, is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and on paper looks every bit of that. The M. Puype-trained filly was considered good enough to make her debut in a stakes (she finished from a poor inside draw) and then wound up a distant fourth in a better-than-par maiden state-bred sprint after displaying good early speed for a half. If she returns as well as she left, the daughter of Creative Cause should be able to dominant this modest field every step of the way. She’s a logical, short-priced, no-value rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Tizzy Twister (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: C+
Solo gate drill for S. Knapp, was ridden most of the way with splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :48.3 on our watches, fair to moderate. Maiden claiming material at this stage, might be competitive with soft Cal-bred competition.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Straight Up G

Forecast: Straight Up G (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5) just easily outrun a similar field in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos last month and seems likely to do the same thing today in this year’s edition of the Cal Cup Derby. The son of Straight Fire may have to contend with a bit more speed today (Highland Ghost could be sent from the rail) but we doubt it’ll make much difference to a colt who is far from speed crazy and should be able to settling into a stalking position if the race flow dictates. In any case, he’s going to be too short to play in the win pool, but we can use him as another heavily-backed rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Finneus (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B-
A bit rank leaving the pole but settled through the opening quarter in :23.4, picked it up on the turn (:35 flat) but then hard urged and ridden while a tad late changing leads to finish all out in :59.1 on our watches for Solis. Not a great worker but shows up in the afternoon. Might be most comfortable around one turn.
View Workout Video

Straight Up G (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Niggled at just a tad through the lane but looked fine, final quarter mile in :24.2 for R. Baltas. Maintains his form, certainly the one to beat in the Cal Cup Derby.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Hail Freedom

Forecast: In a card so far dominated by short-priced favorites, here’s another one. Hail Freedom has finished in the frame in seven of eight starts without yet winning, so he may be a tad difficult to trust, but the son of Box Score adds blinkers for the first time while switching to F. Prat so we’re expecting the D. O’Neill-trained colt to bust through with a maiden-breaking win. His runner-up effort sprinting over the local lawn during the fall season charts very well with these, so following a bullet five furlong training track drill six days ago (:59 flat, fastest of 20) this 4-year-old colt really shouldn’t miss. He’s 8/5 on the morning line, likely to go lower, and appears to be yet another logical rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Square Cat (January 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: C+
In blinkers, ridden and urged through the lane to be even inside Buy American (same time), splits :24.2, :36 flat and 1:01.4 on our watches, okay work, nothing special. Seems like the type that runs a bit better than he works. Seeking another state-bred maiden sprint for older horses.
View Workout Video

Really Big News (January 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Ridden some through the lane to be even but second best with breezing workmate Lil’s Big Shot (same time) for Yakteen, splits of :23.1 and :48.4, fair move. Probably wants turf to show his best stuff. Seeking another maiden state-bred grass miler, kind of a one-paced grinder. View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Smiling Goodbye; 8-Arthur Spooner

Forecast: Here’s a challenging maiden claiming state-bred sprint for 3-year-olds in which the known element doesn’t impress, and the first-timers don’t appear to be particularly formidable. We’ll try to get by using just two, but best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. We haven’t seen video of Smiling Goodbye, but the D. Pederson-trained gelding is bred to be quick (Smiling Tiger) and has been given a sufficient foundation of workouts to be fit and ready. The barn generally does well with first-timers so let’s put the Harris Farms homebred on top at 5/2 on the morning line. Arthur Spooner has the benefit of six prior races, and while he’s a one-paced gelding with moderate numbers he’s a fit in a very soft race for the level. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Gemologist should have every chance to inherit a good stalking trip and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home.

Notable Workouts:

Make Mine Wine (January 9, Santa Anita, 3f, :37.3hg). Grade: C
Was ridden along in solo gate drill for Wong and went considerably slower than given, splits of :27 flat and :39 flat on our watches. Certainly not a speed type based on this drill.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 8-Indian Peak; 3-Aligato

Forecast: Indian Peak (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) has been competitive in graded stakes company and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, so the veteran gelding should be hard to beat in this year’s edition of the Unusual Heat Turf Classic restricted to state-bred older horses. An excellent third (beaten less than a length) in the Seabiscuit H.-G2 at Del Mar two races back, the son of Comic Strip need only repeat that effort today to handle this task. He’s 3-1 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go lower. Also worth including the improving but unproven Aligato (TOC=12-1; ML=7/2) , recently nosed out in a first-level allowance turf sprint over the local lawn. This is a step up in class, for sure, and the analytics are cold-watering him, but the son of Kitten’s Joy continues to improve with racing and this stretch-out in trip should bring out his best. The switch to F. Prat doesn’t hurt, either. We’ll prefer Indian Peak on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

Notable Workouts:

Aligato (January 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.2h TT). Grade: B
Went off easily and then picked it up nicely through the lane to finish with good energy while going past Mendham Mill (5f, 1:02.1h TT) for M. Glatt, final three furlongs in :13 flat and :37.2. Looks fine, certainly should handle a distance of ground.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Scary Fast Smile; 5-Suzie Qzz Brother; 8-Crash Corrigan

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this state-bred, first-level allowance sprint while preferring Scary Fast Smile (TOC=8-1; ML-7/2) on top. Below form in his last pair but continue to train well over a main track we know he prefers, the M. Glatt-trained gelding has never been off third board in six career starts over the local main track, and a recent bullet :59 flat five furlong drill indicates he’s ready to perform up to standard. Regular pilot T. Baze stays aboard, knows him well, and should have him on or near what projects to be a moderate early pace. The analytics aren’t high on his chance, but we are. Glatt has another major player in the field, the speedy Suzie Qzz Brother (TOC=9/2; ML=6-1) , who may be the controlling speed. His numbers have risen with each of his six career outings, and with another forward move today the son of Commissioner should be a strong factor every step of the way. Also worth using on your ticket is Crash Corrigan (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) , drawn nicely outside and most comfortably as a late-running sprinter. He’s likely to settle early and then produce dangerous bid from the quarter pole home. Though winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track, he’s hit the board five times and should at least get a piece of it again today.


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RACE 8: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Warren’s Showtime; 12-Leggs Galore

Forecast: The analytics prefer Leggs Galore, but we’ll give Warren’s Showtime (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics. ‘Showtime is a genuine and versatile state-bred stakes performer that has won six of her 12 career starts over the local lawn and been successful sprinting and routing and down this Hillside course as well. She projects to settle off the pace and then come blasting home, and with some pace up front to compliment her style and good racing luck through the lane the C. Lewis-trained daughter of Clubhouse Ride should be able to tag the speed. Leggs Galore (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) has beaten on our top pick in the past and could easily do it again. Freshened since August and returning to a sprint, the P. D’Amato-trained mare is the quickest of the quick and will take this field a very long way on the front end if not pressured early. Her record of four wins from six starts over the Santa Anita turf course clearly qualifies her as a “horse for course” and the analytics say she’s the one they all have to beat.

Notable Workouts:

Alice Marble (January 9, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Easy early, then finished quite well without being asked while wearing down workmate Loma Vista (5f, 1:01.1h) close home, splits of :25.1, :37.1 and 1:01.1, a full second slower on our watches than given but fine, nonetheless. Has gone through her conditions nicely, gets tested with stakes types on Cal Cup day.
View Workout Video

Super Game (January 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Finished a short head behind Ferrariao (same time) after breaking off about a length behind outside, under restraint most of the way (niggled at late), final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.3 for B. Koriner. Maintenance drill, holds her form.
View Workout Video

Leggs Galore (January 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B Solo training track drill for P. D’Amato, never really asked, final three furlongs in :36.3. Freshened since August, seems fine and loves to fire fresh.
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Brickyard Ride; 8-Colt Fiction; 4-Positivity

Forecast: We were prepared to use Brickyard Road (TOC=6-1; ML=9/5) as a single in his year’s California Cup Sprint – a race he easily won last year – but the layoff is a bit of a concern, and the analytics aren’t impressed, so we’ll put him on top but include a couple of others for protection. ‘Ride is brutally fast when he’s on his game and he’s a six-time winner (from nine starts) over the Santa Anita main track, so in a race in which he projects as the controlling the speed it’s hard to imagine the son of Clubhouse Ride not gaining control early and rolling all the way to the wire. Colt Fiction (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) lands the cozy outside draw and looks like the one to fear most. He’s beaten Clubhouse Ride in the past (last May at this distance) and after being freshened since November the W. Spawr-trained gelding should be primed and ready. Positivity (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1) is fast on numbers and is tough and genuine. Twice a winner from three starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Paynter switches to F. Prat and should be set for a career top effort.

Notable Workouts:

Brickyard Ride (January 8, 5f, Santa Anita, 1:00hg). Grade: B
No blinkers in solo five furlong gate drill for C. Lewis, splits of :24.3, :35.4, :47.1 and 1:00 flat, easy early, asked a bit midway and then allowed to coast in the final furlong. Solid drill, nothing flashy, usually keen in the afternoon with the hood. Likely to display his usually intense speed in the Cal Cup Sprint.
View Workout Video


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RACE 10: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (In order of preference): 6-Eleuthera; 3-Vivacious Vanessa; 1-Big Novel; 7-Professors’ Pride

Forecast: The finale is one of the deepest, toughest races on the card, the California Cup Oaks that drew a full field of 12. Let’s try to hit a grand slam with the 15-1 shot Eleuthera (TOC=32-1; ML=15-1) . She’s a maiden, yet, but she is returning to state-bred competition after an excellent runner-up over this course and distance last month while earning a speed figure that makes her a legitimate contender even against this tougher group. The addition of blinkers shouldn’t hurt, so if the B. Cecil-trained daughter of Square Eddie can continue her improving pattern she could pull of a major surprise. Vivacious Vanessa (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) broke her maiden over this turf course at this one mile distance during the fall meeting and finished a distance third when trying the Del Mar dirt track in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes when backing up to a sprint in her most recent outing. Freshened since early November, stretching out again and returning to turf, the daughter of Not This Time should settle early and then produce a serious kick from the quarter pole home. Big Novel (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and, as a daughter of Mr. Big, should move up considerably in her first outing on the lawn. Her recent works have been excellent and the switch to Johnny V. is another positive factor. Professors’ Pride (TOC=9-1; ML=5/2) has been perfect in two starts and was dominant in her victory in the Soviet Problem S. at Los Alamitos in December. She continues to train well for E. Truman and will be dangerous once again if she can transfer her dirt form to grass.

Notable Workouts:

Big Novel (January 4, Santa Anita. 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+ Mostly on her own in solo training track drill for J. Sadler, splits of :24.1, :35.4 and 1:00.3, good move while maintaining her edge. Would love to see her on turf (Mr. Big) and should move forward with age and experience.
View Workout Video

Vivacious Vanessa (January 2, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.4h). Grade: B+
In company inside Micro Share (5f, 1:01.2h) and was the better of the two through the lane before continuing out an extra furlong to the seven-eighths pole while coming home in :24.3 (to the wire) and then out in :36.4 (ridden pretty good in the late stages). Loved her maiden win on grass and may prefer turf, has a chance to develop nicely with added distance. Plenty fit.
View Workout Video

Dendera (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B-
Splits :23.4 and :48.3 on our watches, some coaxing through the lane. Disappointed at Los Alamitos but probably is more comfortable on grass.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Cal Cup Sprint at Santa Anita | Sat., Jan. 15

January 13, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Five stakes races and a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 highlight Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita on Saturday. The best of the Golden State across multiple divisions will be out en force. Four of the Rainbow 6 races are stakes, including the 6-furlong $150,000 Cal Cup Sprint in Race 9.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner BRICKYARD YARD is the defending champion and clear-cut leader on class. None of the other runners have won a graded stakes. PEACEFUL TRANSFER, POSITIVITY, LOUD MOUTH and PRINCIPE CARLO all are listed stakes winners.

Pace:
BRICKYARD RIDE is one of America's fastest sprinters from the gate and should be on the lead again with pressure from LETSGETLUCKY and possibly PRINCIPE CARLO and COLT FICTION.

Our Eyes:
BRICKYARD RIDE has been out since late August at Del Mar, so his reaction to that layoff is the absolute key to the Cal Cup Sprint. He's run 18 times in his career and never had a significant break in training. His gate workout at XBTV on Jan. 8 was a mixed review in that he was relaxed early for a hot-speed horse, but was pushed hard on the turn before finishing up. Trainer Craig Lewis isn't known for firing hot off the layoff, so the defending champion in this race could be vulnerable.

The alternatives to BRICKYARD YARD line up out of the Nov. 21 Cary Grant Stakes at Del Mar. That was 7 furlongs over a different surface, so you can't make a direct comparison. However, this eye saw runner-up POSITIVITY have the toughest trip between horses much of the way, and yet he still ran a sharp second by a nose. PRINCIPE CARLO got up while wide at 18-1 in the Cary Grant. He's 9-10 in the exacta at Santa Anita, so his good form should continue. But note PRINCIPE CARLO is just 1-6 at 6 furlongs. COLT FICTION, third by only a neck in the Cary Grant, should benefit from the shorter trip and has run well at Santa Anita. Two significant jockey changes out of the Cary Grant: red-hot riders Flavien Prat (POSITIVITY) and John Velazquez (COLT FICTION) have been marvels early in the SA meet.

LETSGETLUCKY is the fresh face to the elder Cal-bred sprint scene. The 4-year-old exits a pair of fast races in allowance company, most recently against open rivals at Del Mar. The Brian Koriner trainee has won 2 of 3 at Santa Anita on dirt and is the X-factor on Saturday.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
PRINCIPE CARLO if 9-10 in the exacta at Santa Anita on dirt and has been in the superfecta in 9 of his last 10 starts. He rarely misfires.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
LOUD MOUTH, fourth in this race last year, could move up off the John Sadler claim last time out and likely will be overlooked in the betting.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win POSITIVITY. $5 exacta key-box POSITIVITY with COLT FICTION, PRINCIPE CARLO & LETSGETLUCKY ($30). Let's take a stand against BRICKYARD RIDE and let the chips fall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Perfect Choice The pedigree is there for her to like this move to the turf, and she has flashed some decent talent on the main track. Think there is a chance she really likes this trip.
#5 Clara Peeters She is a really good fit here with competitive running lines, but she is making a habit of looking very logical and landing underneath shares only at short prices. Capable, but a likely underlay.
#1 I Hear You Think she might offer a decent price in here after a couple of modest Kentucky tries, but there are a few decent turf tries on the page, and she might be able to land a piece today.
Race Summary Perfect Choice gets on the grass for the first time in a race where the most logical winner is a runner who continues to settle for smaller pieces. She probably still has some upside in just her fourth career start.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Short Summer Dress The entry is going to be tough either way, but she gets a pretty dreamy race shape today while meeting a bunch of cutback route pace. She should be quick enough to run these off their feet as the only true sprint pace.
#1A Tizafeelin She steps up after a nice score last time out, and she should get a pretty good run of things in a race while tracking the splits. She beat a decent chalk last time out with a gutsy run late up the inside. Chance right back.
#3 Honorifique She cuts back for this, and the hope for some will be that the entry takes enough cash to leave this one playable as the second choice. She'll need to fire fresh here, but there is obviously a bit of talent here.
Race Summary Tough to get around the entry here, and Short Summer Dress looks like she's going to get a pretty nice run on the engine today. The significant class drop out of a tough stakes spot isn't going to hurt, either.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1A Line Change He showed decent pace in the Laurel debut, and he draws well to prompt the other forward players from the high draw. Always tough to rise into this type of level, but he might be a threat right back.
#6 Strava The debut run produced a really solid Keeneland score, and he overcame a bit of trouble that day. Think there is some talent here, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bring something better in this second lifetime start.
#2 Candy Landing The form isn't much to look at, but his last two came with much better than what he's going to find here, and a bounce-back effort is definitely in play here.
Race Summary Line Change leads a solid entry, and he looked good when winning his Laurel debut. The draw seems perfect for him, and I'd be happy to jump in at anything like 7/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 BAY RUM Takes magnified class drop in pursuit of 30th win and $200k in earnings.
#6 BETTER MOONON OVER Beat most of these at odds-on, makes third start of cycle.
#2 ONE LUCKY DRAGON Rallied into slow pace for third, moves outside in.
Race Summary Bay Rum paced evenly against better in his last two starts. He gapped cover on the backstretch in his latest try but finished willingly after he was slowed by traffic on the turn. Play 4-2 and 4-6 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 LANCASTER BOMBER Responded to front-end assignment, ran second, adds Lasix.
#4 GOING FAST Sustained first-over rally to join blanket finish off 2-month layoff.
#1 BEACHIN LINDY Rallied from seventh to get beat 3/4 of a length on drop to this level.
Race Summary Lancaster Bomber changed tactics, led until the 5-2 second favorite passed by late, now adds Lasix. He benefitted when the favorite broke stride early but should be the one to catch, nonetheless. Play 7-1 and 7-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 SOMETIME SOMEWHERE Full of run at 36-1, knows how to win, worth a playback.
#2 POINTOMYGRANSON Classy 8yo drops to ideal level, gets favorable post switch.
#1 HE'S SWIFT Plays to a steady beat, second to 1-to-5 favorite last week.
Race Summary Sometime Somewhere, a 13-race winner last season, made a good first impression locally. He was trapped with run in the third quarter, found some room in the stretch and burst between rivals late. He should retain some betting value, so make it a win and place wager on him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Glory of Florida Has won six races and was fourth at the 1 1-8-mile distance in the Claiming Crown Jewel; is for all intents and purses is an exclusive GP runner and often is difficult to outrun.
#6 Hercules Has the speed to get to the lead and will be tough if he can throttle down the pace has won four of nine locally.
#3 Shamrocket Comes out of stakes races over the turf courses of New York and moves over to the dirt; likes the distance.
Race Summary Glory of Florida usually runs his best over this strip and can be in close attendance from the outset; was unplaced the one time he was at this distance and he looks ready to try it again.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Proven Strategies Was competitive in graded stakes last year and has found a good spot for his first since September.
#5 Mira Mission Won an allowance optional claiming race at Saratoga in August and was third here in a race that came off the turf; gets back to grass and can be a factor.
#10 Vow Me Now Was a clear winner two back here and usually comes up with a solid effort on grass.
Race Summary Proven Strategies has been with some classy opposition and has held up well; can be the one to catch in his first of the year.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 Cool Quest Comes off a very impressive effort going 5.5 furlongs and has been with some good company; can benefit from the inside run and can fight back when challenged.
#5 Gatsby Ran a bang-up second last out at a similar level and rarely runs a bad one.
#7 Legal Deal Was a good second in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit and has the speed to battle on the front end.
Race Summary Cool Quest battled it out nicely and held on last time, and he's shown improvement as he's gone along in his career.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Jan. 15

FIRST RACE: 3-5-2-7
SECOND RACE: 1-3-7-4
THIRD RACE: 4-5-3-1
FOURTH RACE: 7-4-8-6 (BEST BET)
FIFTH RACE: 4-8-2-1
SIXTH RACE: 3-8-5-1
SEVENTH RACE: 2-4-1-6
EIGHTH RACE: 2-9-12-6
NINTH RACE: 3-8-4-6
10TH RACE: 7-1-3-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Saturday Late Pick 4 Analysis

January 14, 2022 | By Johnny D

Race 8
Funny things happen in Gulfstream Park turf races. Well, I suppose, funny things happen in turf races in general. That’s because of some of the following: A lone front-runner is permitted to gallop along uncontested while others race wide, are blocked, checked, or stymied trying to rally. Runners that may have been best in a race never find enough room to succeed. Our personal favorite is when a runner trying the turf for the first time ends up romping home on top, loving grass like a kid does a summer ice cream cone. Race 8 is the first leg of the Late Pick 4, it’s on turf and we’re looking for something funny to happen.

#1 Winfromwithin is a wire-to-wire stakes winner who had the lead in the stretch of the Gr.2 American Turf last out back in May before fading to third, nearly 3 lengths back. This colt moves from the nearly unbeatable Pletcher barn to the low-profile outfit of Jeff Engler. The colt’s 1-1 over the local turf and has a win at the distance. There should be enough speed to keep him honest on the front end, though, and he may need one coming off a layoff.

#3 Proven Strategies is a 5-year-old stakes winner and has 2 wins in 5 GP outings. All 4 career wins have come virtually in wire-to-wire fashion. He should add spice to the early pace from this inside post. Recent gelding could aid this one’s cause as he has graded stakes experience. Trainer Casse and jockey Gonzalez are 30% together. There are some gaps in this one’s past performances that suggest he’s difficult to keep together but comparatively strong BSF in his last 3 races—April, July and Sept—suggest he runs well enough fresh.

#5 Mira Mission returns to turf after a recent synthetic attempt when third at this level and at about this distance in his first start for trainer Ian Wilkes. This colt is an allowance winner over the Saratoga turf and is 2 for 2 over the GP lawn. He’s fit and has a recent 5-furlong work to bolster a late kick that ought to be enhanced by a solid pace. At a price, he’s a decent option for a winless barn at the stand that will break out soon.

#6 Absam hails from the potent-but-slumping Maker barn (3-44) and has 19% jockey Gaffalione up. A Saratoga first-level allowance win is encouraging but an overall 2-for-13 mark is not. He runs from off the pace.

#8 Hot Blooded wheels back off a Dec. 26 appearance in the Tropical Park Derby at 95-1. He’s won just 2 of 14 starts and has an assortment of stakes-level starts under his belt with little success.

#9 Hawkish is a 7-year-old that saw some of his best racing in ’19 and ’20. He’s 0-for-6 at the distance on turf.

#10 Vow Me Now is a 6-year-old with a win 2 back in a $16k starter. He’s won 8 of 19 lifetime and 7 of 12 at GP. Those are impressive stats. He has speed, must overcome an outside post and figures to be widest of all early. Perhaps too much to overcome? Trainer Plesa and jockey Lopez have been a solid team for a while.

At a Square Price: #5
Maybe: #1, #3
Bombs Away: #8

Race 9
This allowance/$62k optional claiming race at one mile and one-sixteenth has attracted a pair of talented 4-year-old runners with recent Big Apple-stakes experience. That can happen during the Gulfstream winter meet where a clash between top outfits often make a Pick N single-seeker cross-eyed.

#2 Capocostello, a multiple Grade 1 winner in Panama, isn’t an attractive selection in here, but the 6-year-old horse is worth a mention because he has incredibly unusual form: Over wet surfaces he’s won 11 races with 3 seconds! While that’s an outstandingly consistent record, what most amazing is that of the 15 times he raced, 14 times it’s been over ‘wet’ surfaces. We’ve never seen a past performance as unusual as this one and we’ve seen plenty of past performances. To paraphrase the lyrics of a once popular tune:
It never rains in Panama City,
But girl, don’t they warn ya?
It pours, man, it pours.

#3 American Prince is a lightly raced local 4-year-old with 2 wins and a second in four starts. He’s a speedster lacking the cache of some of his foes but probably still a tough ‘out’ in here. He’ll make the popular new faces run for the money.

#4 Vindictive opened eyes when he posted a 97 Beyer Speed Figure to break maiden going one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga. He immediately returned to win a first level allowance Spa race in his next start. Any colt that cashes that parlay has talent. After a failed attempt at a second-level allowance race at Belmont, again, at one mile and one-eighth, this colt posted a 101 BSF when third, beaten less than 2 lengths in the Discovery at Aqueduct. Top trainer Pletcher and top jock Saez combine skills.

#5 Olympiad was purchased for a neat $700k as a yearling and has 2 wins, a second and a third from 5 appearances. Both victories came at 7 furlongs—Saratoga maiden and Keeneland first-level allowance. His best-rated effort earned a 105 BSF when runner-up to stablemate Baby Yoda in a first-level Spa allowance race. Last out, the 4-year-old colt finished a troubled fourth, beaten over 4 lengths in the Gr. 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. He has more speed than #4 Vindictive but he’s never been around 2 turns.

Should Be Interesting: #4, #5

Race 10
This six-furlong state-bred stakes race has attracted some serious early speed. No less than 5 of these would like to be in front at the start so that they can be there at the finish. Unfortunately, the lead figures to be a hot spot and all that early scuffling could open the door to someone with a longer fuse. Of course, not all 5 front-running types are likely to go for the lead. After all, everyone reads the same past performances and knows what will happen after a suicidal pace. Should be an interesting first quarter mile.

#1 Cool Quest starts for a hot trainer, has speed and has 2 wins that both came in wire-to-wire fashion. The rail is no bargain for this guy unless he can sit under Leparoux. That would be a new dimension for him.

#2 Pudding got hot during the summer when the 7-year-old gelding ripped off four consecutive wins at the $20-$25k claiming level. His last two races were solid, and he loves GP. Seven furlongs seems a better distance for him, but he’s got the right style for this race if the speed gets crazy.

#5 Gatsby attracts top jock Saez off a series of 4 solid recent races. Three back he destroyed #2 Pudding by more than 7 lengths and 2 back was less than a length behind that foe—all at the $62-$80k optional claiming level. A 1 for 10 record at the distance isn’t encouraging.

#7 Legal Deal was 2 lengths better than #2 Pudding last out in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. A 6-13 mark at GP and a 3-7 record at the distance give this one some real strength in here. Another piece of good news is that the 5-year-old gelding has drawn outside of the other speed in the race and probably can force the pace from there. Jockey Gonzalez won on him 2 starts back.

Best: #7
Next: #5, #2

Race 11
This one-mile turf race finds the rail set at 35 feet and that should give speed a slight advantage. Several experienced runners with decent proven or expected improving form will be met by first-time starters from winning outfits. Turf races often go to the horse with the best trip and that could be the case here as no one really holds a strong edge over the rest. The tote board may offer clues but those are too late for the Pick 4. This one could go any number of ways; Pick 4 players ought to look at spreading the net.

#1 Principe d’Oro is a first-time starter from the powerful Pletcher stable (42%) and is ridden by top jock Saez (27%). Together they click at a strong 29%. A steady work tab for this $650k yearling purchase bred by chef and television personality Bobby Flay suggests talent.

#3 Dream of a Day has four starts under his belt and will race first-time Lasix in here. Trainer Barclay Tagg probably hopes that’s enough to put this one over the hump following three consecutive runner-up efforts—two on turf, one on synthetic—all since blinkers were added. Daily Racing Form Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start. Can’t either love or ignore this late runner with Leparoux in the irons.

#4 Tallahatchiebridge is a son of Will Take Charge bred and owned by the Ramseys and making a first start for 24% winning trainer Saffie Joseph. First-time starters and turf runners are two of the few categories he doesn’t excel in.

#5 Skylander is a Godolphin runner trained by Bill Mott. He rallied from far back last out to just miss at this distance and over this surface. He races with first-time Lasix. Two previous efforts at Belmont Park were not as exciting.

#6 Grand David makes an initial grass start off a dirt sprint and two synthetic routes. He showed speed in the two-turn races, although with slow fractions. He also lost ground in the stretch of both of those races but earned two of the top Beyer Speed Figures in the race. 24% trainer Victor Barboza and jockey Paco Lopez hit at 36% (14 starts) together and the rider takes over from Jaramillo, who moves to #12 Moms Moon. The trainer has been successful with first time turf, first time Lasix and synthetic to turf runners in the past.

#7 Romanichal is a first-time starter from the Rusty Arnold outfit and the barn is not known for scoring either first out (3%) or first-time turf (4%).

#8 Border War is a Joe Allen War Front homebred making a first start for trainer Shug McGaughey, who has average first time out, turf and distance stats. Castellano rides and he’s 18% overall and 27% at the meet with Shug, so they’ve enjoyed some success together. Easy work tab shows a pair of interesting four-furlong breezes.

#10 La Maquina is fit off a front-running try first out going a mile and 70 yards Dec. 19. He faded to fourth in that race, passed late by #11 Simms, who was also making his first career start. They finished a mere length and one-half apart. Trainer Gargan is 18% second time out and combines with jockey Vasquez to hit at 28%. This one ought to have more in the tank.

#11 Simms had a wide trip in his debut, checked briefly late and ought to improve a bit with the experience. Trainer Mark Casse is 16% second time out and about as good with synthetic to turfers. Jockey Gonzalez and Casse combine to hit at an awesome 30%.

Obviously: #1
Fit and Liable to Improve: #10, #11
Deeper Pockets Might Add: #3, #5, #6, #8

Race On!