Wednesday 8/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:44 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, August 11, 2021

August 11, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 5-Castle Leoch; 6-Munny Bolt

Forecast: Two-year-olds sprint five and one-half furlongs on turf in a competitive affair that brings out the highly-regarded Munny Bolt, from the S. Asmussen barn. The son of Munnings was jaw-dropping at the Timonium sale, where he breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat, doing it like a good horse is supposed to, and then brought $460,000 through the ring. A strong, powerful colt with quick action but a long stride as well, he’s done everything asked of him leading up to his debut, and if he breaks running and handles the grass he’ll be hard to beat. Trainer W. Ward has two in the field, with the better one being Castle Leoch, a second-timer who was beaten at 60 cents on the dollar in his debut at Gulfstream Park in a fast race for the level. With that bit of experience behind him, the son of American Pharoah should be more focused, so today so we may find out what kind of colt he’s going to be. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to the exciting newcomer Munny Bolt.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Extra Effort; 7-Bustin Bay

Forecast: Busty Bay draws the lovely outside post and has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip, so we’re expecting the daughter of Bustin Stones to repeat her facile score last month at Belmont Park in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares. She likes to settle early and accelerate late and is a perfect two-for-two at today’s seven furlong trip. Extra Effort has been quite popular at the claim box, having changed hands in her last three stats, and today goes for the R. Atras stable, which enjoys off-the-charts success with the first-off-the-claim angle. She’s actually dropping from the $20,000 level, not normally a healthy sign following a narrow second place finish, but this outfit runs them where they can win, and this Flashback filly certainly can win here. The barn’s “go-to” rider R. Santana picks up the mount and should have this filly on or near the lead from her inside post. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Bustin Bay.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-Mr. Bluff

Forecast: Mr. Bluff, away since slipping and sliding to a fifth place finish (beaten 17 lengths) as the favorite in the Commentator Stakes over a muddy Belmont Park dirt strip last May, returns for J. Kimmel in this year’s edition of the Evan Shipman Handicap over nine furlongs on the main track. The works look solid, and he’s run well fresh in the past, so we’re expecting the veteran gelding to outclass his foes and secure career victory number 18. He does his best work on the lead but doesn’t need it, so regular rider J. Alvarado can play the race flow by ear and then execute the proper strategy.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B+
Use: 4-Gotta Go Mo; 8-Too Sexy

Forecast: This turf dash for second-level allowance fillies and mares appears to have two main players, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Gotta Go Mo has a distinct speed figure advantage over the others and should take full advantage of this class drop after facing stakes company in her two most recent two outings. She’s clearly the controlling speed if she wants to be and won’t have to go anywhere nearly as quick as the :20 2/5 and :43 2/5 early fractions that she pressed at Monmouth Park last time out. A repeat of her nose defeat in The Very One S. at Pimlico two runs back is all she’ll need to return to winning form. Too Sexy moves up a level after a clever score from off the pace over this course and distance earlier this meeting. She can turn it on late and rates a reasonable look, though her regular rider J. Rosario jumps off to ride Secure Connection, for whatever reason. ‘Sexy should inherit a good second flight trip from her outside draw and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tivoli Twirl; 4-Blitz to Win

Forecast: Tivoli Twirl stretches out around two-turns for the first time, lands the good rail, and catches a maiden state-bred group that should allow him to be the controlling speed without having to be used at all. Whether or not the son of Twirling Candy wants nine furlongs remains to be seen, but if he can’t get the distance with this projected pace flow, he never will. The barn has good stats with the stretch-out angle and the colt’s sprint figures are pretty good, so with J. Rosario taking the call we’re expecting a flag fall to that’s all performance. Blitz to Win also is trying two turns for the first time and has numbers that make him the one to fear most. A one-paced grinding type, the B. Tagg-trained gelding will try to be within range at the head of the lane and then hope that Tivoli Twirl can’t see out the trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Shining Colors; 3-Ms Penelopepitstop; 5-Bonkers

Forecast: We’ll spread this maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. Ms Penelopepitstop, after being backed down to 9/5 favoritism, flashed speed vs. straight maidens in her debut at Monmouth Park in June but gradually weakened to finish fourth, beaten three lengths. She takes a realistic class drop to the $30,000 level, adds blinkers, and catches a field she should be able to outrun early and then hopefully hang on. Shining Colors, a distant second in a bottom-level maiden $20,000 event here over a sloppy track last month, goes for new connections today following a claim and projects to be forwardly placed in a race without much early speed. In the frame in six of seven career starts, the daughter of Paynter should at least hit the board again and maybe do even better than that. Bonkers is a wild card of sorts. She’s been routing on grass and in the mud lately without any success, but if you go back to last year you’ll find a couple of sprints vs. tougher foes that weren’t too bad and in fact earned speed that put her right there with these. You have to use her.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Magisterium; 11-Town Avenger

Forecast: Town Avenger makes just her third career start, and this class drop to the first-level allowance ranks should allow the promising daughter of Speightstown to return to winning form. She graduated at first asking last spring at Churchill Downs in clever fashion sprinting on turf and then took a monumental class hike when trying seasoned stakes fillies in the Tepin S. over a mile on grass in late June. Rallying wide into the teeth of slow fractions, the B. Lynch-trained 3-year-old closed as well as could be expected to wind up fourth, beaten less than three lengths, while earning a speed figure that should be more than good enough to handle this group. Additionally, her local workouts have been outstanding and provide evidence that the best is yet to come. She’s a strong pick on top. Magisterium is still seeking her first U.S. win after being imported from Europe, and with gradually improving speed figures and making her second start since being claimed by O. Noda for $62,500 the Irish-bred filly seems likely to produce another forward move. She’s a one-paced grinding type but switches to L. Saez, so you can use her as a back-up or a saver while reserving the main push for Town Avenger.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Betsy Blue; 4-Trinni Luck; 6-Honey Money

Forecast: Betsy Blue has won four of six career starts, including a state-bred stakes two runs back at Belmont Park, so she’s certainly the one to beat in this second level allowance sprint for New York bred fillies and mares. However, each of her last four outings - all very good races – were contested on wet tracks, so we’re not sure if she’s truly good or just an off-track specialist. Perhaps we’ll find out today. Trinni Luck moves up a notch after winning a state-bred entry-level allowance sprint at Belmont Park by five widening lengths. It was just her fourth career start, so the R. Rodriguez-trained filly may have a bit more upside than some of the others and is a versatile type than can win on the lead or from a stalking position. She’ll probably need a career top performance to win at this level but may very well have it in her. Honey Money also is coming off a nice score, doing so over the local main track last month while pressing the pace throughout. She earned a career top number, but because she’s returning on short rest (12 days), there’s a possibility that she may not be quite as sharp today. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Betsy Blue.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Into the Sunrise; 8-Arrest Me Red

Forecast: W. Ward holds the aces in this sprint turf stakes restricted to 3-year-olds. The speedy Into the Sunrise will bust out and go from his rail position but he won’t be alone, as there are others, most notably Memos and Jaxon Traveler, that are likely to have the same front-running strategy in mind. ‘Sunrise, a grass sprint stakes winner at Ellis Park last month, seeks his third straight victory and the way he’s been training since arriving at the Spa the gelded son of Into Mischief is ready for another big effort. If he’s forced to go too fast early, his stable mate Arrest Me Red should be locked and loaded at the head of the lane and ready to blow past everybody. Undefeated in two starts sprinting on grass, the 3-year-old colt gets ideal conditions today in his first outing since December and his first since being transferred to Ward’s care. His recent drills indicate he’s fit and ready and given the projected race flow the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks very much like the one to fear most.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade:
Use: 4-Clever Fellow; 10-Viking Zim

Forecast: Clever Fellow and Viking Zim both are making the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming and both should be able to separate themselves from the rest against this lesser competition. ‘Fellow, still winless at age five but in the money in five of six career starts, obviously has his problems and has failed as the favorite in each of his last four starts. The connections probably could win a maiden special weight affair with him eventually, but at this stage they’re probably ready to move on. I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard for C. Brown and should have him along in time, but at a short price. ‘Zim, a closing fourth in the same race Clever Fellow exits, has no tactical speed and seems to run the same type of race whether the fractions up front are fast or slow. His best might be good enough to beat this bunch.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:45 AM

Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (August 11, 2021)

August 11, 2021
Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies horses that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita/Del Mar), New York (Saratoga/Belmont Park) and Florida (Palm Meadows) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv.com. Horses are removed following their first race after appearing on the list.

Workouts through August 11, 2021

BENEDICT CANYON - (B. Baffert) – August 7, Del Mar, 5f, :59.2hg
View Workout

Midnight Lute filly wore blinkers and drilled from the gate inside Censorship (same time) for B. Baffert, displaying sharp early speed under a hold and then finishing head-and-head when eased up at the 5/8ths pole, a few ticks slower on our watches than given but very nice nonetheless, splits of :23.2, :47.2 and 1:00 flat, stride for stride late with her more experienced barn mate. Has some quickness and appears to have some quality, should make the entries soon.

DEFERRED TAXES - (C. Brown) – August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1b
View Workout

Sophomore maiden was under a tight hold every step of the way while even but a tad the best over Southern District (same time) in sharp half mile breeze. Moves quite well on the main track but is bred for grass and all three of his outings have been on the lawn. Certainly trains like a better type than his form would indicate and is worth another chance on either surface.

ETOILE - (C. Brown) – August 8, Saratoga, 5f, :59.4b TC
View Workout

Worked outside Pocket Square (same time) on turf for C. Brown and was even throughout, never asked and finishing with something left while looking just about set for comeback. Freshened since the spring, Grade-1 winner should have a very productive late summer and fall season.

MY PRANKSTER - (T. Pletcher) – August 8, Saratoga, 4f, :47bg
View Workout

Into Mischief juvenile appears to have plenty of ability as he displayed in this team gate drill inside stable mate Goddess of Fire (same time), mild coaxing early and mostly on his own late to record quick clocking while clearly best. Gearing up for his debut and should make the entries soon, nice sort.

TEAM MERCHANTS - (D. O’Neill) – Del Mar. 5f, :59.4h
View Workout

Broke off several lengths behind Get on the Bus) (5f, 1:00.4h) and easily cruised on by through the lane to prove much best without ever being asked and then galloped out strongly past the wire. Loved his recent allowance win and has plenty of further improvement in him. Chance to be a stakes type and should get that opportunity soon.

UNION TRAIN - (J. Shirreffs) – Del Mar, 5f, 1:01hg
View Workout

$325,00 OBS March sale purchase is getting ready for his debut and seems just about set after dusting off workmate James Gang (4f, :49hg) with an impressive display acceleration around the turn to finish with plenty left despite being forced wide around a pair of gallopers. May not be a quick sprinter type but definitely has an exciting future, especially as the distances increase.
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Workouts through August 4, 2021

ENCROACHMENT - (R. Hanson) July 30, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00hg
View Workout

Unraced four-year-old gelding broke slowly in company from the gate with Kimmer and Ball Lass (both 5f, 1:01.4hg) but quickly got in gear and easily overtook his workmates without need of urging and then drew far clear after the opening three furlongs, splits of :23.3, :35 flat, :47.2 and 1:00.2 on our watches, mild late coaxing. Bred for much speed and appears to have plenty of it though he’ll need to break better in the afternoon. Should be plenty fit by now.

JESTER CALLS NOJOY - (T. Pletcher) August 1, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3bg
View Workout

Broke well in gate drill outside stablemate A Mo Rae (same time) and was even throughout while hard held every step of the way and able to go much faster for T. Pletcher while gearing up for racing debut. Maclean’s Music juvenile filly looks lvery quick and gives every indication of a win early-type. Should be fit enough by now.

MAJOR GENERAL - (T. Pletcher) August 1, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1bg
View Workout

Gate drill inside stable mate Bellinger (4f, :47.2bg) nd was clearly best while mostly under wraps every step of the way, finishing about three lengths clear while displaying a smooth, athletic stride under mild coaxing only. Constitution colt brought $420,000 as a yearling and looks the part.

NORTH CAROLINA - (B. Tagg) August 1, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b
View Workout

Broke off far behind Tiz Eternal and Money Merger (both 5f, 1:02.2b) and caught that pair approaching the wire despite being taken in hand and geared down in the final furlong, quite impressive for a once-started 4-year-old maiden gelding. Had one start more than a year ago in a maiden race on turf at Belmont Park and never landed a blow but has to a much better type now for B. Tagg (had been a C. McGaughey last year). Stretch-running type should return soon.

REAL FIRE - (J. Sadler) August 1, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.1hg
View Workout

Unraced 2-year-old filly worked from gate with older Grade-1 winner Flagstaff (same time) and was much quicker early while leading by a few lengths after the opening quarter, was joined by workmate midway on the turn and was pretty much even thereafter (perhaps a neck back when pulled up), splits of :23 flat, :34.3, :47 flat and 1:00 flat, easy early, mild late coaxing. Street Boss filly was $360,000 OBS April Sale purchase and seems ready to roll for J. Sadler.

RHETORIC - (B. Baffert) August 2, Del Mar, 5f, :59.3hg
View Workout

In blinkers, was along the rail working inside Marco Polo (4f, :47hg) and was always going the better of the two without really being asked much, then was coaxed just a bit in the final stages and responded impressively before galloping out a full six furlongs in 1:12.4 on our watches. Quality Road colt brought $600,00 as a yearling, has some speed but definitely wants to run long, hope he’ll debut in an elongated sprint or perhaps even two-turning. Looks plenty fit for Baffert.
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Workouts through July 27, 2021

JACK CHRISTOPHER - (C. Brown) July 26, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b
View Workout

Team drill with C. Brown stable mate Practice Squad (same time) and looked quite promising in easy breeze while much the best along the rail, a ton left at the end while under a hammerlock. Munnings colt isn’t too far along just yet but may be a smoker and is worth following very closely.
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Workouts through July 20, 2021

EXCELLENT TIMING - (C. Brown) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.3b
View Workout

Sharp and eager in solo five furlong drill while strong throughout and mostly on his own. Stakes-winning New York-bred colt has been freshened and the time off appears to have done him some good. Stakes-quality sort when he’s on his game.
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FOUR GRACES - (I. Wilkes) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
View Workout

Breezing half mile drill while clearly best from Liberty M D (same time) for I. Wilkes, just cruising under a nice hold while workmate had to be asked a bit to stay even. Ran like a short horse in her comeback in Kentucky; seems likely to be fitter and improve next time out.
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HOPKINS - (B. Baffert) July 19, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :59hg
View Workout

Unraced 3-year-old Quality Road colt brought $900,000 as a yearling and may finally be ready to face the starter based on this impressive gate drill while proving best over Gold Rush Candy (5f, :59.1hg) and Dubronik (4f, :48hg), always on his left lead but in front along the rail throughout, something left late without pressure, :46.2 and :59 flat on our watches. Turned in a series of fast works at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and should be more than fit enough by now.
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Workouts Through July 6, 2021

CURIOUS INJI - (J. Mullins) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h
View Workout

Under wraps every step of the way in solo training track drill, final half mile in :24.1 and :48.4, plenty left late. Unplaced in three career starts, most recently in a maiden claiming miler (stumbled badly at the start), but the daughter of Misremembered surely appears capable of better and seems likely to surface in a winnable spot early in the Del Mar season.
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SEMPER FIDELIS - (S. Joseph, Jr.) July 3, 2021, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1h
View Workout

Barn tends to let them roll in the a.m., but this lightly-raced son of Fast Anna was under cruise control throughout in sharp half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Been away since December but appears to be returning better than he left and should be hard to beat vs. older maiden special weight foes.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:46 AM

Golden Gate Fields Stats: Vote for Pedro

August 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields

Headlines

Golden Gate will host the Santa Rosa fair racing dates through Aug. 15 … The Rainbow 6 carryover going into Friday is $3,314 and the Super High Five is $1,602 ... Friday’s action begins with a pair of stakes for the Arabian breed and will follow with eight Thoroughbred offerings … Feature race this weekend will be the Robert Dupret Derby for 3-year-olds going 1-1/16 miles on the turf … Trip to Spain, a debut winner July 25 at Golden Gate, parlayed that result into a second-place finish Aug. 8 in Del Mar’s $100,000 Graduation Stakes for 2-year-old Cal-breds. Jamey Thomas trains … San Francisco Mile runner-up Keeperof The Stars did not fare as well in her fifth-place effort in the Aug. 7 Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 27% winners.

Avg. E2 Pace
All Weather Earnings
Mud Pedigree

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Pedro Terrero was on the money with an 18: 5-6-2 record. He posted a whopping $2.02 ROI for every $1 bet and was a highly reliable 61% in the exacta. He piloted winners for 5 different trainers, including $11, $11 and $39 scores.

-- Jockey Catalino Martinez continued his hot run with a 12: 5-2-1 mark. Four of his winners were well-backed at 5-2 or less. He’s now 7-17 over the past 2 weeks.

-- Trainer Jonathon Wong turned it up a notch at 13: 4-3-3, though he saddled 8 favorites (3 wins).

-- Trainer Reid France was 3: 1-1-1 on the week, and now 9: 5-2-1 from his last 9 local starters.

-- Favorites hit just under 35% on the week, up from 28% over the previous 2 weeks combined.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:47 AM

Pimlico Stats: Favorites Handled Business Last Week

August 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

A $1,350 Super High 5 carryover goes into Friday’s return to racing … Friday’s card includes the debut of Race 4 maiden Ginamaya, a daughter of champion Nyquist and 6-time Maryland Jockey Club stakes winners Lady Sabelia. Her rivals include Frosteria, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up and $2.3M earner Hystericalady … Pimlico’s next big stakes card will be Aug. 21 with the All Brandy, Find, Miss Disco and Star De Naskra for Maryland-breds … The MJC autumn season at Laurel begins Sept. 9, featuring the Sept. 18 Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash and Oct. 23 Jim McKay Maryland Million, set for its 37th renewal.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 29% wins and a flat-bet profit.

Win %
Best Speed Off Track
Dirt Pedigree

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Jevian Toledo led the way with a 13: 5-4-0 record, winning all 3 mounts when favored, and posting a $1.62 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 4: 1-3-0 for trainer Richard Sullaman.

-- Jockey JD Acosta was on point at 13: 4-3-0. Acosta was 3: 2-1-0 on favorites, but did boot home a pair of $10 scores. All 4 successes were in main-track sprints.

-- Jockey Carlos Lopez made the most of limited bids, going 8: 3-1-2 and boasting a $1.48 ROI for every $1 bet. He teamed most with trainer Keiron Magee at 4: 1-1-0.

-- Claudio Gonzalez (2-10) and Keiron Magee (2-7) were the only trainers with multiple winners. Magee added a pair of runner-up finishes.

-- Favorites showed out strongly behind a 25: 11-5-3 mark that equates to 44% wins and 64% in the exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:48 AM

Gulfstream Stats: Avg. Speed Cemented as Top Factor

August 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

The Rainbow 6 has a $100,851 carryover in the jackpot bet heading into Friday’s 3-day racing week and $200,000-guaranteed pool … Feature race this week will be Saturday’s $75,000 Benny the Bull Stakes for Florida-bred sprinters … Gulfstream Park, The Jockey’s Guild and the Florida HBPA jointly announced new crop rules Aug. 6 that went into effect immediately, limiting the use of the crop and further enhancing the welfare of the equine athletes … Renovations continue on the new third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September … Congratulations to Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go, who added Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney to his resume Aug. 7.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each showing a 23% win rate or higher. Avg. Speed was the top-performing factor for the fourth straight week.

Avg. Speed
Avg. 2 of 3 Speed
Last Turn Time

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Carlos David continued his recent roll, going 5: 3-1-0. That makes him 7-14 over the past 2 weeks at Gulfstream.

-- Trainer Elizabeth Dobles was perfect in 2 starts, winning a pair of overnight stakes at $11 and $23 mutuels. The barn has won with 3 of its last 6 dating back to July 30.

-- Jockey Leonel Reyes had perhaps his best week of the summer, posting a 17: 5-1-2 and leading the colony in victories. His $2.40 ROI for every $1 bet was bolstered by $23 and $30 winners. He won races for 5 different trainers.

-- Favorites underperformed at 31% on the week and have continued a trend of just over 31% winning favorites for the past month.

-- After going 7-16 the previous 2 weeks, Victor Barboza’s barn came back down to earth and was 0-5 last week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:49 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#2 Union Gen. George	He'll try the local footing for the first time after a couple of turf tries to open the career. The team is plenty capable, and he'll probably get a great trip from close range.
#8 Quiet Amigo	He couldn't stay late in the route debut, but he has enough pace to get in the mix early from the high draw, and the price should be right to see if he can hang around for a piece underneath.
#3 Titrate	Not totally sold that he's coming forward while stretching out, but the overall form is competitive at what might be an underlaid price.
Race Summary	Union Gen. George has shown a bit of tactical pace in his turf tries, and the barn has been solid with limited starters at the stand. He should be tough here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#9 Posh Playday	She can be tough from this outside draw while tracking the pace, and she already cleared this condition before later being DQ'ed. Still wonder if turf is her real calling after that big debut effort.
#8 Single Lady	She has flashed some chasing pace and stayed on well in a pair of starts in Florida, and she's one of the obvious ones on form. That said, Shanghai Bobby offspring are a roughly 13-14% proposition on the main track overall but only 4% at PID the last few years. Iffy.
#6 Patti D	Her form can be hit or miss, but that last one looks competitive with this bunch if she's able to hold that form. She wouldn't be a real surprise, but I prefer others.
Race Summary	Posh Playday should get the right kind of trip with these, and we already know she's a good fit with this kind after crossing the wire first with similar a couple starts back.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#5 Cadet Connelly	He's probably fast enough to control the tempo in a race without a bunch of serious early pace, and he has a mild rating gear to employ if someone else wants the front here.
#2 J Beresford Tipton	He rolled last out when dropped in for a tag, and he's immediately protected back with allowance company off that good try. Second start off the layoff gives him a right to be tough.
#3 Can't Pass It Up	He's not all that interesting on top given his complete lack of early speed, but he's a fairly reliable finishing type who might be able to pass some of these if he likes the new footing.
Race Summary	Cadet Connelly owns pace and has raced with some decent groups along the way. Something like the 6/1 ML price would seem appealing on the hike up to this next condition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:50 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Yonkers - Race #9

#2 IDEAL IN MIRACLES	Figures close-up a long way after first-over grind in latest.
#8 SOCIETY JILL	Ranged up, flattened out in race dominated by closers, moves inside out.
#5 CHELSKI	Four wins this year, rest of the field has nine.
Race Summary	Ideal In Miracles was flushed out in the third-quarter, grinded to first-over and took a short lead in deep stretch, only to finish third. He led to the stretch in his prior try at this level and can use his speed well tonight. Bet to win and place.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#1 WHAT'S ON SECOND	Took money, bottled up in traffic, draws rail.
#2 DREAM DEAL	Starts fresh, draws favorably for first start locally.
#5 DANNY BOY HANOVER	Rallied first-over for minor awards in last three starts.
Race Summary	What's On Second was trapped 3-deep on the rail with plenty of trot. He didn't get to show it but he should tonight at a better price. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #4

#8 BALLERINI	Brushed past the faves, wilted in the stretch, meets softer field.
#2 CHARLATAN HANOVER	Close up two back as fave, broke stride in follow-up.
#4 HIGH IDOL	Shipper appears stuck in 'third' gear this year.
Race Summary	Ballerini secured good position from the second tier, made a quick second-quarter brush past the favorites and into second, but faded in the stretch. He switches pilots again and can move forward in his third start of a cycle. Play 8-2 and 8-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 07:51 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #3

#4 Three Jokers	His 4-year-old year has treated him quite well thus far, with wins in both races (at Belmont and Aqueduct); sees stakes company for the first time since June 2020 and could be the up-and-comer on the New York-bred scene.
#2 Mr. Buff	Strong veteran has done a lot of good but strangely enough has lost the last two times he was against New York-breds; beat open company two in stakes races at Aqueduct and is always going to get his share of support.
#1 Danny California	Just won on Saturday and is back in a hurry; beat open company at this distance and the Rodriguez stable comes in off a big weekend.
Race Summary	Three Jokers has taken to longer races this year, and like others in this special state-bred stakes spot, he'll be going without Lasix. He's a horse heading in the right direction in his career.

Saratoga - Race #4

#1 Richies Great Girl	Her four straight wins at three tracks is an attention getter, and she's quite resolute in her approach, as she has the propensity to close strongly in five-furlong turf races; Larry Rivelli is a high-percentage trainer and has always picked his spots well.
#4 Gotta Go Mo	Lost her last two after winning three straight; solid runner on the front end.
#8 Too Sexy	Closed well and won going away over this course last time and should be able to show some late punch here as well. Faces tougher company but she is in good form and her best will make her tough.
Race Summary	Richies Great Girl has enough speed to stay in range and usually has a big closing move; can make it five straight.

Saratoga - Race #9

#9 Rebel Posse	Was fourth in the G3 Quick Call here in her first Saratoga start and has since then moved over to the H. James Bond stable; has won two of her last four, winning at Lone Star and Sam Houston. Probably needed the start and can improve here.
#4 Jaxon Traveler	Was third in the G3 Quick Call and the solid dirt sprinter could be developing into a turf runner as well; has defeated some good ones and will be a player here as well.
#8 Arrest Me Bad	Has been at four tracks in four races and has won two (Laurel, Aqueduct) and makes his first of the year and runs for Wesley Ward for the first time.
Race Summary	Rebel Posse has tactical speed and can probably avoid trouble from his outside post; can move up from his fourth-place finish last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:49 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Burnes -170 over Chicago Cubs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:49 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY:ST LOUIS/PITTSBURGH OVER the total of 9 runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:50 AM

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Detroit Tigers/Baltimore Orioles over 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:51 AM

#1 Sports

Wednesday's Free Play: Seattle Mariners - 185

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:51 AM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: Toronto Blue Jays w/Manoah -170 over LA Angels

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2021, 09:52 AM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Wednesday : Take CINCINNATI/ATLANTA UNDER the total of 9½ runs