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DR. CHUCK
- Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -188 E Lauer (LHP), D Peters (LHP) Must Start
Dillon Peters is NOT gonna be a good thing today facing this Brewers lineup and in AAA with 13 appearances this season he has a nice little 1.5 ERA the past 5 times taking to the mound, but with an FIP of 5.04!
Lauer has faced the Pirates his last 2 times to the mound in a weird scenario…but after that second leg of the DH yesterday I think the Pirates blew their entire wad and will have a hard time doing THAT again….big price for a reason!
Also playing the Over in this spot here….as it is a 26 Overs in the last 35 times fitting our system here today!
- Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Over 8.5 (-120) E Lauer (LHP), D Peters (LHP) Must Start
EASILY one of THE best spots on the entire Sunday board. We have a trend going Over in 26 of the last 35 times for a system here based upon Lauer and on the road. We have a 67% Over trend based on NL divisional totals that are “high”, AND we have a home dog in the NL spot with a .400 or worse win percentage spot TO BOOT!
Play this at 8.5 like it was a 5 or 10 Unit play and play this at 9 if that's what you're offered as a 4 or 5 Unit at least type play….in addition to the Brewers winning this game today, this is likely the most +EV spot on the Sunday MLB card! - Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-115) S Gray (RHP), A Nola (RHP) Must Start
This is some SOLID stuff here with this number….2 top tier starters, a game needed badly for both teams, and we have a combined -10 VMI with wind blowing inward AND an increased ADI in the stadium for this game…get the Reds bullpen out of the equation and I think Sonny REALLY STEPS IT UP today! - Game: (919) Tampa Bay Rays at (920) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Over 5.5 (-110) L Patino (RHP), C Barnes (LHP) Must Start
More bargains…and a correlated Over play here….runs from jump is how we see this and an 11 run FLOOR….ceiling of extra innings and maybe well into the teens…. - Game: (919) Tampa Bay Rays at (920) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 15 2021 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-110) L Patino (RHP), C Barnes (LHP) Must Start
As many of you with All Access know, we look at the numbers every day and more importantly….WHY they numbers are THE NUMBERS!
AL home dogs outside the division since 2019
151 Overs
164 Unders
Nothing to note here….48% Over, 52% Under…pretty nothing to play at all
Account for the total as we do with the difference between the leagues…
Throw in the one single change of an AL non-division total of 10 or higher…
NOW….
64 Overs
25 Unders
Good for a 72% win rate on the Over play and a +37% ROI just since 2019…
Vegas sets totals the way they set totals for a reason…and on top of these trends we have the 2 starters here…
Patino has been MUCH worse the second half, particularly his last 2 starts…the Twins went off yesterday and are showing a bit of fight…but Charlie Barnes has been EVEN worse than Patino…and to top it off the Rays are slashing 2.1/.356/125 against LHP on the road…
Neither bullpen has been very good lately with both of them in the 5+ FIP the last 7 days, but also the Twins ‘pen has had a .208 BABIP during that time frame….this has ALL the makings of a great 5 or 10 UNIT hammer…that we’re gonna slow play a little more gently than getting overzealous!
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