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BOSTON @ TORONTO | 08/07 | 3:07 PM EDT
BOSTON +147
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox had some questionable management last night as they allowed nine runs in an inning. I think they'll bounce back and beat the Jays in the first game of today's important doubleheader. The Sox are now only three games ahead of the Yankees and need to get a win in one of these games. I expect they come out swinging in the first game, as they have been able to get runs on Robbie Ray so far this season, and Nick Pivetta is a better pitcher when away from Fenway. Grab the Sox at plus money in the first game of the doubleheader.
+198 8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
10:01 AM
MIAMI @ COLORADO | 08/07 | 8:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -157
ANALYSIS: The Marlins have been much worse on the road (20-36), and the Rockies have been elite at home (36-21). We saw it last night in the 14-2 rout; the Marlins cannot handle the Rockies. Plus, I'm not a big fan of Jesus Luzardo; I think he gives up too many home runs and now he has to pitch at Coors. Austin Gomber has been very good at home. Take the Rockies to win.
+198 8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
+147 3-1 IN LAST 4 COL ML PICKS
9:58 AM
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND | 08/07 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is a clear-cut Over for me based on who is pitching. Both starters have xwOBAs close to .340, and the Indians' Eli Morgan is carrying an xSLG of .502 and a home ERA of 8.82. Tyler Alexander for Detroit has allowed seven home runs in 26.2 innings on the road, leaving him with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP when away as well. What's worse is his 6.00 ERA since the All-Star break. The hitters should have the advantage today. Go with the Over.
+583 9-3 IN LAST 12 MLB O/U PICKS
9:55 AM
L.A. ANGELS @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/07 | 9:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have been great at bouncing back in these situations where they probably shouldn't have lost the game before. Julio Urias has been consistent and should keep the Angels to only a couple runs. This play is based more on the Dodgers offense, as I expect they wake up a bit today. Jamie Barria has been solid in his two recent starts, but those were against the Twins and the A's, who have both struggled offensively recently. I like the Dodgers to put some runs on him and win this game by multiple runs.
+198 8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
+55 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ATS PICKS
9:51 AM
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 08/07 | 4:05 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is another NL East battle in which I'll happily take the Over. Weather is a solid factor; there should be a decent wind boost to make this a better hitting environment than normal at Citizens Bank Park. I also like that the Phillies seem to be going with another bullpen day behind Ranger Suarez, which should give the Mets some decent chances to get some runs up. Plus Bryce Harper is absolutely killing it, and we want that on our side. Go Over 9.5.
+583 9-3 IN LAST 12 MLB O/U PICKS
+495 6-1 IN LAST 7 PHI O/U PICKS
9:48 AM
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 08/07 | 7:20 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Truist Park is one of the best hitting parks in baseball, and today should be another plus hitting day with low air density and wind blowing out. I make this closer to 9 and would not be surprised if this line closes as such. The Over has hit in eight of the Nationals' last 10 games, which coincides with their choice to rid their bullpen of any decent options. And the Over is a robust 31-20-4 in Braves home games. Grab this one quickly; I don't expect it stays at 8.5 for long.
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