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MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -125
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda's ERA is 5.50 on the road, and August has always been a tough month for the former Dodger. Meanwhile Tyler Mahle has struggled at home but has pitched well against the Twins. The Reds are 14-7 when he's on the bump, while the Twins are 5-12 with Maeda on the hill. Cincinnati is 11-3 when playing after a day off this season. This line opened at -140, which I thought was high. I like the Reds at this number for three units.
+872 12-3 IN LAST 15 MLB PICKS
+401 4-0 IN LAST 4 CIN ML PICKS
1:53 PM
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -135
ANALYSIS: The Cubs recently gutted their roster and they were already terrible away from Wrigley Field. They are 20-35 on the road. One of the few veterans they kept is starter Zach Davies and it's good news for us because he can't regularly work deep into games. He's only gone more than six innings twice in 22 starts. Having traded their three best relievers, the Cubs' bullpen is now terrible, too. The Rockies, meanwhile, are 33-20 at home. The odds should be way heavier in the Rockies favor in this one.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -1.5
ANALYSIS: Patrick Corbin just faced the Phillies last Thursday, and he was lit up for three homers and eight hits in five innings. He had a 7.18 ERA in July. Look for Zack Wheeler to build off last night's dramatic win and get a convincing victory. Play the Phils -1.5 runs at -110.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Washington had a chance at yesterday’s matchup, but its thin bullpen ultimately let the Nats down. The matchup today is much tougher. Washington lost in yesterday’s series opener, 7-5. The Nationals are 0-6 since Sept. 12, 2020, as a dog after a game as a home dog in which they allowed at least six runs. The Washington bullpen allowed six runs in that game including all five runs in the ninth inning. The Nationals are 1-10 since June 25 past the first game of a series after their bullpen allowed multiple runs in the previous game.
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -153
ANALYSIS: My model says the Dodgers win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has lost just one of his 21 starts this season and has been superb over his last four outings. The 27-year-old has gone 3-0 while allowing three runs while recording 32 strikeouts over 27 1/3 innings in that span. Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has yielded four runs in each of his last two turns. Take the Dodgers.
+215 3-1 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS
+104 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ML PICKS
YESTERDAY 7:28 PM
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ATLANTA -125
ANALYSIS: My model says the Braves win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Atlanta LHP Max Fried pitched well enough to notch his third win in four starts last time out, allowing just two runs in seven innings while registering a season-high nine strikeouts. He is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA in three career meetings with St. Louis, including a victory on June 18 in which he gave up one run and two hits in seven frames. Expect him to continue his success against the Cardinals.
+215 3-1 IN LAST 4 MLB PICKS
+1599 33-19 IN LAST 52 STL ML PICKS
+125 2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ML PICKS
YESTERDAY 7:21 PM
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -172
ANALYSIS: The Astros are beginning a big series, one that has "World Series preview" written all over it. I like Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler to succeed against a Houston team that has been less effective against right-handers. Buehler is coming off his best month of the year, as he posted a 1.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in July. He just faced San Francisco twice and held them to just one run in 14 1/3 inning. The man is a machine and I'll happily back him. Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has struggled of late, allowing Cleveland and Seattle each to score four runs. He now has a tougher test in Los Angeles and again could allow multiple runs. Take the Dodgers to win.
+43 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
10:30 AM
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -245
ANALYSIS: This is a story of home/away splits. Royals LHP Kris Bubic has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 15 2/3 innings on the road spanning five appearances. That’s pretty awful. Now he faces a fearsome Chicago lineup and RHP Dylan Cease, who also is much worse on the road, but that’s great for us because his 2.44 ERA and 3.42 K/BB ratio at home should be reliable enough to get us this win. I know it’s heavy, but it’s still the right call. Cease never has surrendered more than three runs at home, so lay the juice.
+43 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
10:26 AM
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 08/03 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -203
ANALYSIS: It’s August and you cannot be afraid of these huge lines, even if the Blue Jays blew it on Monday. Indians RHP Zach Plesac is below average in most peripheral stats, including Barrel percentage, xSLG and strikeout percentage, which means he very well could struggle here. Meanwhile, Toronto LHP Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed just four runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are not going to drop back-to-back home games to the Indians. I’m paying up to back Toronto.
+43 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
10:22 AM
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Won with the Phillies on Monday, and I see no reason they should drop this game with ace Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Arizona LHP Patrick Corbin. Wheeler has been consistent all year and now faces a pretty rough Nationals lineup. Corbin's ERA is above 8 since the All-Star break and he is likely to struggle. We also got a glimpse at how Washington's bullpen is going to look for the rest of the season and, well, it’s not pretty. I’ll take the juice, lay it with Philadelphia.
+43 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
+95 2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ML PICKS
10:18 AM
Below are The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll. If you prefer to bet on only 1 or a few games a day, then just take the picks with the highest win amounts:
Platinum Plays to Win $100
640pm 911 SF Giants -175
540pm 910 Rockies -140
410pm 918 Tampa Bay -165
Gold Plays to Win $80
405pm 901 Phillies run line -1.5
510pm 906 Brewers run line -1.5
Silver Plays to Win $60
407pm 916 Toronto run line -1.5
Bronze Plays to Win $40
710pm 929 Over 8.5 on Astros
410pm 918 Over 8 on Tampa Bay
Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $10 a way for $40
640pm 911 SF Giants -175
540pm 910 Rockies -140
410pm 918 Tampa Bay -165
Two team parlays to bet for $30
405pm 901 Phillies run line -1.5
510pm 906 Brewers run line -1.5
710pm 929 Over 8.5 on Astros
410pm 918 Over 8 on Tampa Bay
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