Tuesday 8/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 07:53 AM

Monday Myths: Should You Avoid Rookies from the Rail?

August 2, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Don’t bet a first-time starter from the rail.

Background:

A common handicappers’ stance is to avoid rail-drawn first-time starters. The theory is that they are forced to break with the pack and be hard-used early, otherwise they will be shuffled back as the field comes down up on them. Inexperienced horses aren’t expected to overcome adversity in their opening act.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all first-time starters over the past 5 years (Aug. 1, 2016-present). The study included how they fared from the rail draw at sprint distances of 6 furlongs or less as well as how they fared in comparison to other winning posts. The study also looked at rail runners by field size. And, I also looked at debut 2-year-olds vs. debut runners of all ages.

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Post 1 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 2 first-time starters win 10.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 3 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 4 first-time starters win 10.9% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 5 first-time starters win 10.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 6 first-time starters win 9.8% with a $0.69 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 7 first-time starters win 10.1% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 8 first-time starters win 8.7% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 9 first-time starters win 8.4% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 10 first-time starters win 8.0% with a $0.80 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 11 first-time starters win 6.9% with a $0.78 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 12 first-time starters win 5.4% with a $0.46 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 6 or less win 14.5% with a $0.75 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 7-9 win 10.5% with a $0.81 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters in fields of 10-12 win 8.0% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

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Post 1 first-time starters as 2-year-olds win 11.7% with a $0.83 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 3-year-olds win 9.1% with a $0.72 ROI for every $1 bet.
Post 1 first-time starters as 4-year-olds win 8.4% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

Overall Findings:
Posts 3-4-5 score at the highest rates among first-time starters in sprint races, with the inside two posts next-best. There’s a considerable drop off in win percentage from post 8 and beyond. No doubt larger field sizes have an impact in lowering the win rate for the rail. As for the performance of rail-drawn rookies by age, the 2-year-olds by far had the best win rate and ROI.

Bottom line:

While the rail may not be the ideal spot for a first-time starter, the statistics show it’s not nearly the automatic toss some handicappers exaggerate. You could make the argument that in the largest field sizes, you had better have the best horse to win from the fence.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, which tracks have been best for rookies from the rail? Delaware Park has seen 16.5% winners in this situation, best nationally. Also see which jockeys negotiate it best (hint: Carol Cedeno and Emisael Jaramillo have excelled).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 07:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #1

#3 Kolohe Prince	He doesn't have a ton of excuses at this point, but there is almost no pace signed on in here, and he has occasionally shown some ability to sit near the top. Drop might do the trick.
#5 Niangua	This guy comes right back at the same level while testing the locals for the first time after the Churchill run, and he's probably quick enough to find a spot near the front.
#6 Field Officer	He will be making his 36th career start, so he's not bringing any upside to the table, but he might land a decent tracking trip. Underneath.
Race Summary	Kolohe Prince looks like one of the obvious two in here, and the price here might be slightly better than the offering on the Churchill invader Niangua.

Parx Racing - Race #4

#5 Liam's Lady	The only turf try wasn't much, but it came with better back in June, and she's worth a look at this kind of level with the blinkers on while getting Pennington up -- an ace in these types of races.
#7 Superhelpful	Some of her best tries have come on the grass, so there's reason to think she might be able to hold form after bouncing back in a big way off the claim last time out. Tough.
#9 Cape Elizabeth	She has never been in this easy, but her form isn't all that exciting, and she's probably not going to offer a playable kind of number here.
Race Summary	Liam's Lady didn't pick up on the turf in June, but there just isn't anything to write home about in here, so anything like the 6/1 ML price would be very appealing with a top pilot in this kind of race.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#7 Charity Stripe	Demand a fair price here, because she has been in a bit deep at this level in the past. That said, she's protected off the claim and gets what might be a favorable race shape to finish into. Along late at a mid-range price?
#4 Le Petite Papillon	She has turned into a pretty serious early burner since adding blinkers for the new barn, and I don't have any knocks on form, but there are a couple of other 44-and-change types lined up that might leave her vulnerable late.
#1 Bucks Some	She's quick enough to be in the mix early, but she might benefit most from trying to settle in the pocket just a touch while the more serious early players go at it.
Race Summary	Charity Stripe needs a decent setup today, but her ceiling is high enough to land this if she gets a fair run of things. Something like 5/1 would seem fair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 07:58 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #2

#1 BARDMIRY	Tracked odds on fave, got by late to finish second.
#5 SOUTH WIND XENA	Was traveling comfortably on clear lead but came up short.
#2 CANDY PAINT	First start locally for 20-percent barn, Buter's choice on a double call.
Race Summary	Bardmiry tracked 1-to-5 favorite South Wind Xena in the pocket and got by late after the winner ranged up 3-wide for the stretch drive. She projects a similar trip and betting value should remain. Play 1-2, 1-5 and 1-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#2 HADIKNOWNBETTER	Post makes all the difference, goes well in here.
#8 R PRECIOUS PEARL	Plagued by bad posts, ran best race with Macdonald in bike.
#4 GQ MAGIC	Three-race in-the-momey streak ended from post 8.
Race Summary	Hadiknownbetter showed good speed off the gate from post 10, saved ground in fifth and trotted evenly in the stretch. Expect a good effort from the 3yo filly with a favorable post switch. Play a 2-ALL exacta.

- Race #0

#8 STATE OF PLAY	Seeks repeat off Moreau claim against similar rivals.
#10 JAYDEN PLACE	Good form, drops to proper level, starting spot the drawback.
#6 PORTRSTOWNCHRIS IR	'Loaded' while looking for stretch room, rallied widest.
Race Summary	State Of Play found a seat in fifth, led the outer flow as the pace slowed on the backside and inched clear to win. Give him the repeat nod off the Moreau claim in a wide open race. Play a 6-8-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 08:00 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #1

#4 Ego	Was a winner the last time he was on dirt and has won on turf since then; is back to the main track and seeks his third win in sixth start off the claim by Holthus; one to hold off.
#1 Candy Store	Was an easy winner at Prairie Meadows last out as he embraced the chance to set slow fractions; he's taken two of his last three and is running well for Reavis.
#3 Gambler's Fallacy	Just missed last time in his first over the strip and has good performances at several different tracks; just likes to run and could make them notice late.
Race Summary	Ego is in good dirt form and has the class to prevail over a solid group of horses; can make a solid late run.

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#6 Game Boy Benny	Ran well in Florida early in the year and has shown signs off getting back to good form; comes in off a third here and can be a pace factor.
#3 Naughty Alfred	Won three straight and them settled for second last time; has taken 7 of 10 locally.
#1 Royal Commission	Ran on for second last out in his first good effort since April; can get a good trip on or near the end and can benefit from the inside post.
Race Summary	Game Boy Benny is headed back to top form and his Florida races would make him very tough here.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#2 Rare Form	Took a race clunker last time out as he opened up four lengths early and had nothing left late; can be a big player at this level.
#4 Dilettante	Goes for his third straight win and has a sparkling 7 of 18 record here; can mix it up with these.
#6 Thatswhatithought	Ran of to an easy score vs. state-breds last time and usually runs well on the front end locally.
Race Summary	Rare Form turns back in distance, which should help his cause; can take to them when called upon and should show significant improvement here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:49 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Chicago Cubs w/Davies +145 over Colorado

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:50 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY: PITTSBURGH/MILWAUKEE OVER the total of 9 runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:50 AM

Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: Seattle Mariners/Tampa Bay Rays over 8 1/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:55 AM

#1 Sports

Tuesday's Free Play: Chicago White Sox - 200

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:55 AM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Houser -210 over Pittsburgh

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:56 AM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Tuesday : Take ATLANTA/ST LOUIS UNDER the total of 8½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:56 AM

Hawkeye Sports

Tuesday's Free Pick: San Francisco Giants - 155

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:57 AM

Huddle Up Sports

Tuesday Free Play
Toronto Ryu -195

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:57 AM

Arthur Ralph

FreePlay TUES: Cinci Reds w/ Mahle-135

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 09:57 AM

Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 8/3 MLB CLEVELAND +185

Tuesday 8/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 8/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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