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Game: (907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 21 2021 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: San Diego Padres -125 J Urias (LHP), Y Darvish (RHP) Must Start
5% Big Ticket: Take San Diego (#908)
My clients and I cashed a pair of winners backing the Padres on the Run Line over the weekend. And there’s ample reason to ride San Diego again tonight in what is very much a statement game and a statement series for the home team – factors that are NOT truly represented in this relatively cheap moneyline to support them. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Padres write-up from Saturday.
“Some wins mean more than others when it comes to momentum swings. The Padres spent an extended stretch of May as the hottest team in baseball; 16-3 over a 19 game span. It flipped in a hurry and in ugly fashion – San Diego retuned home off a 1-5 road trip; just 3-14 in their last 17 games. Thursday’s game was wild. The Padres held a 2-0 lead into the ninth, but closer Mark Melancon got bombed for four runs in the top of the inning. But the Padres hit a pair of two run dingers in the bottom of the ninth; one to tie, one to win. Manager Jayce Tingler: “It felt like more than a win, to be honest. This is one of those wins that can change a lot of things.” With a sellout crowd in Petco for the first time all season, this sure has the feel of a ‘slump ender’ for a legit World Series contender.”
The Padres ended up sweeping Cincinnati in a four game set over the weekend, including a pair of momentum inducing walk-off wins. They’ve got staff ace Yu Darvish going tonight: with splits clearly showing that he’s dominant at home and dominant at night. Darvish has already faced the Dodgers twice this season, owning them both times: 14 innings of work, 18 strikeouts, 2 runs and five hits allowed. I’m expecting another gem here, and the Padres are 8-2 in his last ten trips to the hill; a profitable hurler to support.
The Dodgers have been feasting on the weak; -170 or higher ten times in their last dozen games. It’s surely worth noting that the only game where they were priced lower than -140 (against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies) they were shut out at home. LA has only been ‘plus money’ once all year, back on April 30th at Milwaukee. They lost that game 3-1.
And it’s also worth noting that LA has a losing record against San Diego so far this season – it’s just another series for the defending champs, but perhaps the biggest series of the season for the home favorite tonight! Don’t expect Julio Urias and a Dodgers bullpen that got rocked yesterday to shut this Padres lineup down today, especially with Fernando Tatis expected back on the field following a one game injury absence for San Diego. Big Ticket: Take the Padres
Line Parameter: 5% at -135 or lower, 4% at -136 or higher
Game: (907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Jun 21 2021 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: San Diego Padres -125 J Urias (LHP), Y Darvish (RHP) Must Start
5% Big Ticket: Take San Diego (#908)
My clients and I cashed a pair of winners backing the Padres on the Run Line over the weekend. And there’s ample reason to ride San Diego again tonight in what is very much a statement game and a statement series for the home team – factors that are NOT truly represented in this relatively cheap moneyline to support them. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Padres write-up from Saturday.
“Some wins mean more than others when it comes to momentum swings. The Padres spent an extended stretch of May as the hottest team in baseball; 16-3 over a 19 game span. It flipped in a hurry and in ugly fashion – San Diego retuned home off a 1-5 road trip; just 3-14 in their last 17 games. Thursday’s game was wild. The Padres held a 2-0 lead into the ninth, but closer Mark Melancon got bombed for four runs in the top of the inning. But the Padres hit a pair of two run dingers in the bottom of the ninth; one to tie, one to win. Manager Jayce Tingler: “It felt like more than a win, to be honest. This is one of those wins that can change a lot of things.” With a sellout crowd in Petco for the first time all season, this sure has the feel of a ‘slump ender’ for a legit World Series contender.”
The Padres ended up sweeping Cincinnati in a four game set over the weekend, including a pair of momentum inducing walk-off wins. They’ve got staff ace Yu Darvish going tonight: with splits clearly showing that he’s dominant at home and dominant at night. Darvish has already faced the Dodgers twice this season, owning them both times: 14 innings of work, 18 strikeouts, 2 runs and five hits allowed. I’m expecting another gem here, and the Padres are 8-2 in his last ten trips to the hill; a profitable hurler to support.
The Dodgers have been feasting on the weak; -170 or higher ten times in their last dozen games. It’s surely worth noting that the only game where they were priced lower than -140 (against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies) they were shut out at home. LA has only been ‘plus money’ once all year, back on April 30th at Milwaukee. They lost that game 3-1.
And it’s also worth noting that LA has a losing record against San Diego so far this season – it’s just another series for the defending champs, but perhaps the biggest series of the season for the home favorite tonight! Don’t expect Julio Urias and a Dodgers bullpen that got rocked yesterday to shut this Padres lineup down today, especially with Fernando Tatis expected back on the field following a one game injury absence for San Diego. Big Ticket: Take the Padres
Line Parameter: 5% at -135 or lower, 4% at -136 or higher
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