Kyle Anthony
Event: (24349) Antonio Arroyo at (24350) Tom Breese
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: June 5, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Antonio Arroyo +205
In a Main Card bout on Saturday June 5th, Antonio Arroyo faces Tom Breese…
To start, this line feels off…
At no point should Tom Breese be a -240 favorite here going 2-3 in last 5 UFC appearances. Both guys have strong wide range of weapons offensively comfortable in the pocket exchanging. This line is victim to recency bias of Arroyo's last bout losing against Deron Winn. Early appeared as if Antonio could put Winn away, but unable to conserve energy costed him. Completely gassing out as Winn out paced the lackluster cardio of Arroyo. On Saturday night Arroyo shouldn't have to worry about defending level changes or a wrestling match. Both men will seek to stand, allowing each fighter working to their strengths. At range in space it's anyone's game as Breese is a kill or be killed kinda fighter. That willingness should put him in vulnerable positions toe to toe. Not saying Breese can't handle himself, but this wide line doesn't indicate how close this fight really is. The dog is live.
At +205 on Arroyo giving us implied probability of 32%, I'd cap his chances of winning higher. In a fight I don't see going the distance both men are live to land a KO shot, …feels more like a coin flip bout. Pure value is on Arroyo in this spot at over 2 to 1 dog money I'm comfortable having some exposure at solid plus odds in this fight.
Play: Antonio Arroyo (+205)
Event: (24349) Antonio Arroyo at (24350) Tom Breese
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: June 5, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Antonio Arroyo +205
In a Main Card bout on Saturday June 5th, Antonio Arroyo faces Tom Breese…
To start, this line feels off…
At no point should Tom Breese be a -240 favorite here going 2-3 in last 5 UFC appearances. Both guys have strong wide range of weapons offensively comfortable in the pocket exchanging. This line is victim to recency bias of Arroyo's last bout losing against Deron Winn. Early appeared as if Antonio could put Winn away, but unable to conserve energy costed him. Completely gassing out as Winn out paced the lackluster cardio of Arroyo. On Saturday night Arroyo shouldn't have to worry about defending level changes or a wrestling match. Both men will seek to stand, allowing each fighter working to their strengths. At range in space it's anyone's game as Breese is a kill or be killed kinda fighter. That willingness should put him in vulnerable positions toe to toe. Not saying Breese can't handle himself, but this wide line doesn't indicate how close this fight really is. The dog is live.
At +205 on Arroyo giving us implied probability of 32%, I'd cap his chances of winning higher. In a fight I don't see going the distance both men are live to land a KO shot, …feels more like a coin flip bout. Pure value is on Arroyo in this spot at over 2 to 1 dog money I'm comfortable having some exposure at solid plus odds in this fight.
Play: Antonio Arroyo (+205)
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